Actually, the world isn't flat - Pankaj Ghemawat
[Music]
I'm<00:00:16.110> here<00:00:16.470> to<00:00:16.619> talk<00:00:16.830> to<00:00:16.890> you<00:00:17.189> about<00:00:17.720> how
I'm here to talk to you about how
I'm here to talk to you about how
globalized<00:00:19.380> we<00:00:19.619> are<00:00:19.830> how<00:00:20.640> globalized<00:00:21.300> we
globalized we are how globalized we
globalized we are how globalized we
aren't<00:00:22.140> and<00:00:22.349> why<00:00:23.250> it's<00:00:23.490> important<00:00:24.180> to
aren't and why it's important to
aren't and why it's important to
actually<00:00:24.990> be<00:00:25.500> accurate<00:00:26.160> in<00:00:26.340> making<00:00:27.150> those
actually be accurate in making those
actually be accurate in making those
kinds<00:00:27.779> of<00:00:27.869> assessments<00:00:28.529> and<00:00:29.029> the<00:00:30.029> leading
kinds of assessments and the leading
kinds of assessments and the leading
point<00:00:30.960> of<00:00:31.109> view<00:00:31.410> on<00:00:31.590> this<00:00:31.859> whether<00:00:32.489> measured
point of view on this whether measured
point of view on this whether measured
by<00:00:33.269> number<00:00:33.870> of<00:00:34.170> books<00:00:34.470> sold<00:00:35.150> mentions<00:00:36.150> in
by number of books sold mentions in
by number of books sold mentions in
media<00:00:36.809> or<00:00:37.160> surveys<00:00:38.160> that<00:00:38.550> I've<00:00:38.730> run<00:00:39.000> with
media or surveys that I've run with
media or surveys that I've run with
groups<00:00:39.839> ranging<00:00:40.140> from<00:00:40.379> my<00:00:40.650> students<00:00:41.280> to
groups ranging from my students to
groups ranging from my students to
delegates<00:00:42.239> to<00:00:42.479> the<00:00:42.600> World<00:00:42.809> Trade
delegates to the World Trade
delegates to the World Trade
Organization<00:00:43.280> is<00:00:44.280> this<00:00:45.089> view<00:00:45.390> that<00:00:46.140> national
Organization is this view that national
Organization is this view that national
borders<00:00:47.460> really<00:00:48.360> don't<00:00:48.780> matter<00:00:49.290> very<00:00:49.920> much
borders really don't matter very much
borders really don't matter very much
anymore<00:00:51.140> cross-border<00:00:52.140> integration<00:00:53.070> is
anymore cross-border integration is
anymore cross-border integration is
close<00:00:53.850> to<00:00:54.119> complete<00:00:54.600> and<00:00:54.900> we<00:00:55.589> live<00:00:55.830> in<00:00:55.979> one
close to complete and we live in one
close to complete and we live in one
world<00:00:56.220> and<00:00:56.970> what's<00:00:57.750> interesting<00:00:58.080> about<00:00:58.500> this
world and what's interesting about this
world and what's interesting about this
view<00:00:59.159> is<00:00:59.689> again<00:01:00.689> it's<00:01:01.019> a<00:01:01.170> view<00:01:01.379> that's<00:01:01.589> held<00:01:01.799> by
view is again it's a view that's held by
view is again it's a view that's held by
pro<00:01:02.309> globalizers<00:01:02.879> like<00:01:03.570> Tom<00:01:03.869> Friedman<00:01:04.470> from
pro globalizers like Tom Friedman from
pro globalizers like Tom Friedman from
whose<00:01:05.100> book<00:01:05.400> this<00:01:05.640> quote<00:01:05.939> is<00:01:06.119> obviously
whose book this quote is obviously
whose book this quote is obviously
excerpted<00:01:07.380> but<00:01:08.040> it's<00:01:08.189> also<00:01:08.340> helped<00:01:08.760> by<00:01:08.880> anti
excerpted but it's also helped by anti
excerpted but it's also helped by anti
globalizes<00:01:10.140> who<00:01:10.799> see<00:01:11.040> this<00:01:11.189> giant
globalizes who see this giant
globalizes who see this giant
globalization<00:01:13.140> tsunami<00:01:13.770> that's<00:01:14.640> about<00:01:15.210> to
globalization tsunami that's about to
globalization tsunami that's about to
wreck<00:01:15.750> all<00:01:16.020> our<00:01:16.380> lives<00:01:16.679> if<00:01:17.070> it<00:01:17.280> hasn't<00:01:17.520> already
wreck all our lives if it hasn't already
wreck all our lives if it hasn't already
done<00:01:18.450> so<00:01:18.979> the<00:01:19.979> other<00:01:20.100> thing<00:01:20.340> I<00:01:20.460> would<00:01:20.520> add<00:01:20.789> is
done so the other thing I would add is
done so the other thing I would add is
that<00:01:21.689> this<00:01:21.810> is<00:01:21.990> not<00:01:22.170> a<00:01:22.409> new<00:01:22.770> view<00:01:23.390> I'm<00:01:24.390> a<00:01:24.420> little
that this is not a new view I'm a little
that this is not a new view I'm a little
bit<00:01:24.960> of<00:01:25.079> an<00:01:25.170> amateur<00:01:25.429> historian<00:01:26.429> so<00:01:27.090> I<00:01:27.149> spent
bit of an amateur historian so I spent
bit of an amateur historian so I spent
some<00:01:27.689> time<00:01:27.719> going<00:01:28.289> back<00:01:28.590> trying<00:01:29.039> to<00:01:29.219> see<00:01:29.460> the
some time going back trying to see the
some time going back trying to see the
first<00:01:30.420> mention<00:01:31.020> of<00:01:31.350> this<00:01:31.859> kind<00:01:32.100> of<00:01:32.280> thing<00:01:32.490> and
first mention of this kind of thing and
first mention of this kind of thing and
the<00:01:33.509> best<00:01:33.719> earliest<00:01:34.649> quote<00:01:35.280> that<00:01:35.460> I<00:01:35.520> could
the best earliest quote that I could
the best earliest quote that I could
find<00:01:36.090> was<00:01:36.840> one<00:01:37.229> from<00:01:37.439> David<00:01:37.799> Livingstone
find was one from David Livingstone
find was one from David Livingstone
writing<00:01:39.929> in<00:01:40.079> the<00:01:40.280> 1850s<00:01:41.329> about<00:01:42.329> how<00:01:42.630> the
writing in the 1850s about how the
writing in the 1850s about how the
railroad<00:01:43.469> the<00:01:44.100> steamship<00:01:44.759> and<00:01:44.999> the<00:01:45.479> Telegraph
railroad the steamship and the Telegraph
railroad the steamship and the Telegraph
were<00:01:46.710> integrating<00:01:47.520> East<00:01:47.819> Africa<00:01:48.539> perfectly
were integrating East Africa perfectly
were integrating East Africa perfectly
with<00:01:50.189> the<00:01:50.340> rest<00:01:50.579> of<00:01:50.819> the<00:01:51.119> world
with the rest of the world
with the rest of the world
now<00:01:52.950> clearly<00:01:53.509> David<00:01:54.509> Livingstone<00:01:55.049> was<00:01:55.229> a
now clearly David Livingstone was a
now clearly David Livingstone was a
little<00:01:55.649> bit<00:01:55.829> ahead<00:01:56.039> of<00:01:56.249> his<00:01:56.490> time<00:01:56.850> but<00:01:57.619> it<00:01:58.619> does
little bit ahead of his time but it does
little bit ahead of his time but it does
seem<00:01:59.130> useful<00:01:59.460> to<00:02:00.270> ask<00:02:00.420> ourselves<00:02:00.920> just<00:02:01.920> how
seem useful to ask ourselves just how
seem useful to ask ourselves just how
global<00:02:02.700> are<00:02:02.939> we<00:02:03.179> before<00:02:04.049> we<00:02:04.079> think<00:02:04.380> about
global are we before we think about
global are we before we think about
where<00:02:05.009> we<00:02:05.189> go<00:02:05.399> from<00:02:05.609> here<00:02:06.109> so<00:02:07.109> the<00:02:07.560> best<00:02:07.770> way<00:02:08.069> I
where we go from here so the best way I
where we go from here so the best way I
found<00:02:08.429> of<00:02:09.209> trying<00:02:10.080> to<00:02:10.229> get<00:02:10.410> people<00:02:10.830> to<00:02:10.860> take
found of trying to get people to take
found of trying to get people to take
seriously<00:02:11.910> the<00:02:12.150> idea<00:02:12.230> that<00:02:13.230> the<00:02:13.380> world<00:02:13.560> may
seriously the idea that the world may
seriously the idea that the world may
not<00:02:14.160> be<00:02:14.459> flat<00:02:15.240> may<00:02:15.780> not<00:02:15.959> even<00:02:16.380> be<00:02:16.560> close<00:02:16.710> to
not be flat may not even be close to
not be flat may not even be close to
flat<00:02:17.310> is<00:02:17.610> with<00:02:18.330> some<00:02:18.570> data<00:02:18.870> so<00:02:19.770> one<00:02:20.190> of<00:02:20.310> the
flat is with some data so one of the
flat is with some data so one of the
things<00:02:20.700> I've<00:02:20.910> been<00:02:21.090> doing<00:02:21.420> over<00:02:21.660> the<00:02:21.810> last
things I've been doing over the last
things I've been doing over the last
few<00:02:22.410> years<00:02:22.470> is<00:02:23.069> really<00:02:23.819> compiling<00:02:24.420> data<00:02:24.810> on
few years is really compiling data on
few years is really compiling data on
things<00:02:25.650> that<00:02:25.830> could<00:02:25.950> either<00:02:26.190> happen<00:02:26.790> within
things that could either happen within
things that could either happen within
national<00:02:27.870> borders<00:02:28.140> or<00:02:28.860> across<00:02:29.580> national
national borders or across national
national borders or across national
borders<00:02:30.420> and<00:02:30.900> I've<00:02:31.890> looked<00:02:32.220> at<00:02:32.430> the
borders and I've looked at the
borders and I've looked at the
cross-border<00:02:33.379> component<00:02:34.379> as<00:02:34.560> a<00:02:35.069> percentage
cross-border component as a percentage
cross-border component as a percentage
of<00:02:35.910> the<00:02:36.090> total<00:02:36.120> I'm<00:02:37.110> not<00:02:37.379> going<00:02:37.650> to<00:02:37.800> present
of the total I'm not going to present
of the total I'm not going to present
all<00:02:38.550> the<00:02:38.910> data<00:02:39.120> that<00:02:39.390> I<00:02:39.420> have<00:02:39.750> here<00:02:40.290> today<00:02:40.620> but
all the data that I have here today but
all the data that I have here today but
let<00:02:41.670> me<00:02:41.790> just<00:02:42.000> give<00:02:42.239> you<00:02:42.480> a<00:02:42.510> few<00:02:43.019> data<00:02:43.260> points
let me just give you a few data points
let me just give you a few data points
I'm<00:02:44.519> going<00:02:44.640> to<00:02:44.880> talk<00:02:45.209> a<00:02:45.239> little<00:02:45.510> bit<00:02:45.630> about<00:02:46.050> one
I'm going to talk a little bit about one
I'm going to talk a little bit about one
kind<00:02:46.920> of<00:02:47.099> information<00:02:47.220> flow<00:02:48.140> one<00:02:49.140> kind<00:02:49.500> of
kind of information flow one kind of
kind of information flow one kind of
flow<00:02:50.459> of<00:02:50.760> people<00:02:51.390> one<00:02:52.170> kind<00:02:52.470> of<00:02:52.590> flow<00:02:52.830> of
flow of people one kind of flow of
flow of people one kind of flow of
capital<00:02:53.580> and<00:02:53.790> of<00:02:54.330> course<00:02:54.569> trade<00:02:55.019> in<00:02:55.349> products
capital and of course trade in products
capital and of course trade in products
and<00:02:56.010> services<00:02:56.510> so<00:02:57.510> let's<00:02:57.720> start<00:02:58.049> off<00:02:58.200> with
and services so let's start off with
and services so let's start off with
plain<00:02:59.370> old<00:02:59.760> telephone<00:03:00.450> service<00:03:01.079> of<00:03:01.730> all<00:03:02.730> the
plain old telephone service of all the
plain old telephone service of all the
voice<00:03:03.599> calling<00:03:04.200> minutes<00:03:04.709> in<00:03:04.950> the<00:03:05.310> world<00:03:05.549> last
voice calling minutes in the world last
voice calling minutes in the world last
year<00:03:06.829> what<00:03:07.829> percentage<00:03:08.579> do<00:03:09.239> you<00:03:09.299> think<00:03:09.500> were
year what percentage do you think were
year what percentage do you think were
accounted<00:03:11.069> for<00:03:11.099> by<00:03:11.880> cross-border<00:03:12.630> phone
accounted for by cross-border phone
accounted for by cross-border phone
calls<00:03:13.410> pick<00:03:14.280> a<00:03:14.310> percentage<00:03:14.940> in<00:03:15.180> your<00:03:15.420> own<00:03:15.540> mind
calls pick a percentage in your own mind
calls pick a percentage in your own mind
answer<00:03:18.480> turns<00:03:18.810> out<00:03:19.049> to<00:03:19.319> be<00:03:19.349> 2<00:03:20.069> percent<00:03:20.280> if<00:03:21.140> you
answer turns out to be 2 percent if you
answer turns out to be 2 percent if you
include<00:03:22.920> Internet<00:03:23.579> telephony<00:03:23.819> you<00:03:24.780> might<00:03:24.989> be
include Internet telephony you might be
include Internet telephony you might be
able<00:03:25.290> to<00:03:25.410> push<00:03:25.769> this<00:03:25.980> number<00:03:26.370> up<00:03:26.549> to<00:03:26.760> six<00:03:27.030> or
able to push this number up to six or
able to push this number up to six or
seven<00:03:27.540> percent<00:03:28.019> but<00:03:28.290> it's<00:03:29.220> nowhere<00:03:29.519> near<00:03:29.790> what
seven percent but it's nowhere near what
seven percent but it's nowhere near what
people<00:03:31.230> tend<00:03:31.500> to<00:03:31.620> estimate<00:03:32.299> or<00:03:33.299> let's<00:03:33.600> turn<00:03:33.930> to
people tend to estimate or let's turn to
people tend to estimate or let's turn to
people<00:03:34.950> moving<00:03:35.549> across<00:03:35.819> borders<00:03:37.040> one
people moving across borders one
people moving across borders one
particular<00:03:38.579> thing<00:03:38.850> we<00:03:39.030> might<00:03:39.209> look<00:03:39.450> at<00:03:39.660> in
particular thing we might look at in
particular thing we might look at in
terms<00:03:40.260> of<00:03:40.500> long<00:03:40.799> term<00:03:40.829> flows<00:03:41.609> of<00:03:41.880> people<00:03:41.910> is
terms of long term flows of people is
terms of long term flows of people is
what<00:03:43.410> percentage<00:03:44.130> of<00:03:44.400> the<00:03:44.760> world's
what percentage of the world's
what percentage of the world's
population<00:03:45.150> is<00:03:46.250> accounted<00:03:47.250> for<00:03:47.280> by
population is accounted for by
population is accounted for by
first-generation<00:03:49.130> immigrants<00:03:50.299> again<00:03:51.299> please
first-generation immigrants again please
first-generation immigrants again please
pick<00:03:52.290> a<00:03:52.319> percentage<00:03:54.530> turns<00:03:55.530> out<00:03:55.709> to<00:03:55.889> be<00:03:56.010> a
pick a percentage turns out to be a
pick a percentage turns out to be a
little<00:03:56.280> bit<00:03:56.549> higher<00:03:56.790> it's<00:03:57.630> actually<00:03:58.230> about<00:03:58.500> 3%
little bit higher it's actually about 3%
little bit higher it's actually about 3%
or<00:04:00.109> think<00:04:01.109> of<00:04:01.730> investment<00:04:02.730> take<00:04:03.540> all<00:04:03.810> the<00:04:04.350> real
or think of investment take all the real
or think of investment take all the real
investment<00:04:05.280> that<00:04:05.430> went<00:04:05.670> on<00:04:05.910> in<00:04:06.150> the<00:04:06.239> world<00:04:06.450> in
investment that went on in the world in
investment that went on in the world in
2010<00:04:07.590> what<00:04:08.519> percentage<00:04:09.239> of<00:04:09.359> that<00:04:09.470> was
2010 what percentage of that was
2010 what percentage of that was
accounted<00:04:10.980> for<00:04:11.010> by<00:04:11.430> foreign<00:04:11.880> direct
accounted for by foreign direct
accounted for by foreign direct
investment<00:04:14.750> not<00:04:15.750> quite<00:04:16.590> 10<00:04:17.280> percent<00:04:17.820> and<00:04:18.120> then
investment not quite 10 percent and then
investment not quite 10 percent and then
finally<00:04:19.530> the<00:04:20.070> one<00:04:20.250> statistic<00:04:20.549> that<00:04:21.239> I<00:04:21.269> suspect
finally the one statistic that I suspect
finally the one statistic that I suspect
many<00:04:22.229> of<00:04:22.470> the<00:04:22.590> people<00:04:22.770> in<00:04:23.010> this<00:04:23.160> room<00:04:23.400> have
many of the people in this room have
many of the people in this room have
seen<00:04:24.060> the<00:04:24.840> export<00:04:25.410> to<00:04:25.620> GDP<00:04:26.190> ratio<00:04:26.669> if<00:04:26.940> you<00:04:27.660> look
seen the export to GDP ratio if you look
seen the export to GDP ratio if you look
at<00:04:27.960> the<00:04:28.110> official<00:04:28.560> statistics<00:04:29.310> they
at the official statistics they
at the official statistics they
typically<00:04:30.390> indicate<00:04:30.930> a<00:04:31.110> little<00:04:31.440> bit<00:04:31.590> above<00:04:31.860> 30
typically indicate a little bit above 30
typically indicate a little bit above 30
percent<00:04:33.020> however<00:04:34.020> there's<00:04:35.010> a<00:04:35.070> big<00:04:35.430> pro
percent however there's a big pro
percent however there's a big pro
with<00:04:36.599> the<00:04:36.809> official<00:04:37.110> statistics<00:04:38.069> in<00:04:38.339> that<00:04:39.089> if
with the official statistics in that if
with the official statistics in that if
for<00:04:40.110> instance<00:04:40.259> a<00:04:40.889> Japanese<00:04:41.879> component
for instance a Japanese component
for instance a Japanese component
supplier<00:04:43.110> ships<00:04:44.009> something<00:04:44.309> to<00:04:44.610> China<00:04:44.909> to<00:04:45.299> be
supplier ships something to China to be
supplier ships something to China to be
put<00:04:45.659> into<00:04:45.809> an<00:04:46.049> iPod<00:04:46.499> and<00:04:46.829> then<00:04:47.399> the<00:04:47.519> iPod<00:04:48.029> gets
put into an iPod and then the iPod gets
put into an iPod and then the iPod gets
shipped<00:04:48.719> to<00:04:48.929> the<00:04:49.019> US<00:04:49.229> that<00:04:50.099> component<00:04:50.639> ends<00:04:51.209> up
shipped to the US that component ends up
shipped to the US that component ends up
getting<00:04:51.569> counted<00:04:52.229> multiple<00:04:52.799> times<00:04:53.129> so<00:04:54.089> nobody
getting counted multiple times so nobody
getting counted multiple times so nobody
knows<00:04:54.749> how<00:04:55.169> bad<00:04:55.589> this<00:04:55.949> bias<00:04:56.309> with<00:04:56.819> the
knows how bad this bias with the
knows how bad this bias with the
official<00:04:57.389> statistics<00:04:57.679> actually<00:04:58.679> is<00:04:58.889> so<00:04:59.669> I
official statistics actually is so I
official statistics actually is so I
thought<00:05:00.179> I<00:05:00.209> would<00:05:00.329> ask<00:05:00.599> the<00:05:00.779> person<00:05:00.989> who's
thought I would ask the person who's
thought I would ask the person who's
spearheading<00:05:01.739> the<00:05:02.279> effort<00:05:02.309> to<00:05:03.239> generate<00:05:03.719> data
spearheading the effort to generate data
spearheading the effort to generate data
on<00:05:04.289> this<00:05:04.559> bus<00:05:05.189> calamy<00:05:05.939> the<00:05:06.269> director<00:05:06.659> of<00:05:06.719> the
on this bus calamy the director of the
on this bus calamy the director of the
World<00:05:07.049> Trade<00:05:07.289> Organization<00:05:07.999> what<00:05:08.999> his<00:05:09.269> best
World Trade Organization what his best
World Trade Organization what his best
guess<00:05:09.929> would<00:05:10.199> be<00:05:10.229> of<00:05:10.879> exports<00:05:11.879> as<00:05:12.059> a
guess would be of exports as a
guess would be of exports as a
percentage<00:05:12.779> of<00:05:12.929> GDP<00:05:13.589> without<00:05:14.429> the<00:05:14.639> double<00:05:14.999> and
percentage of GDP without the double and
percentage of GDP without the double and
triple<00:05:15.509> counting<00:05:15.989> and<00:05:16.249> it's<00:05:17.249> actually
triple counting and it's actually
triple counting and it's actually
probably<00:05:18.599> a<00:05:18.779> bit<00:05:19.110> under<00:05:19.499> 20<00:05:19.889> percent<00:05:20.099> rather
probably a bit under 20 percent rather
probably a bit under 20 percent rather
than<00:05:21.089> the<00:05:21.209> 30<00:05:21.479> percent<00:05:21.719> plus<00:05:22.259> numbers<00:05:22.739> that
than the 30 percent plus numbers that
than the 30 percent plus numbers that
we're<00:05:23.039> talking<00:05:23.279> about<00:05:23.579> so<00:05:24.439> it's<00:05:25.439> very<00:05:25.889> clear
we're talking about so it's very clear
we're talking about so it's very clear
that<00:05:26.849> if<00:05:27.479> you<00:05:27.599> look<00:05:27.749> at<00:05:27.839> these<00:05:28.079> numbers<00:05:28.349> or<00:05:28.919> all
that if you look at these numbers or all
that if you look at these numbers or all
the<00:05:30.360> other<00:05:30.509> numbers<00:05:30.839> that<00:05:31.259> I<00:05:31.319> talked<00:05:31.619> about<00:05:31.649> in
the other numbers that I talked about in
the other numbers that I talked about in
my<00:05:32.129> book<00:05:32.489> world<00:05:32.789> 3.0<00:05:33.569> that<00:05:34.349> we're<00:05:34.529> very<00:05:35.009> very
my book world 3.0 that we're very very
my book world 3.0 that we're very very
far<00:05:36.059> from<00:05:36.360> the<00:05:37.229> no<00:05:37.529> border<00:05:38.219> effect<00:05:38.669> benchmark
far from the no border effect benchmark
far from the no border effect benchmark
which<00:05:40.469> would<00:05:40.679> imply<00:05:41.329> internationalization
which would imply internationalization
which would imply internationalization
levels<00:05:42.929> of<00:05:43.139> the<00:05:43.439> order<00:05:43.739> of<00:05:43.860> 85<00:05:44.519> 90<00:05:45.419> 95<00:05:45.979> percent
levels of the order of 85 90 95 percent
levels of the order of 85 90 95 percent
so<00:05:48.239> clearly<00:05:49.129> apocalyptically<00:05:50.129> minded
so clearly apocalyptically minded
so clearly apocalyptically minded
authors<00:05:51.119> have<00:05:51.899> overstated<00:05:52.649> the<00:05:53.009> case<00:05:53.629> but
authors have overstated the case but
authors have overstated the case but
it's<00:05:54.779> not<00:05:55.259> just<00:05:55.679> the<00:05:55.919> apocalyptic<00:05:56.610> s--<00:05:56.849> as<00:05:57.119> i
it's not just the apocalyptic s-- as i
it's not just the apocalyptic s-- as i
think<00:05:57.509> of<00:05:57.899> them<00:05:58.050> who<00:05:58.919> are<00:05:58.949> prone<00:05:59.369> to<00:05:59.399> this<00:05:59.669> kind
think of them who are prone to this kind
think of them who are prone to this kind
of<00:06:00.209> overstatement<00:06:01.110> I've<00:06:01.889> also<00:06:02.189> spent<00:06:02.639> some
of overstatement I've also spent some
of overstatement I've also spent some
time<00:06:03.209> serving<00:06:04.039> audiences<00:06:05.039> in<00:06:05.279> different
time serving audiences in different
time serving audiences in different
parts<00:06:06.209> of<00:06:06.329> the<00:06:06.449> world<00:06:06.629> on<00:06:07.219> what<00:06:08.219> they<00:06:08.519> actually
parts of the world on what they actually
parts of the world on what they actually
guessed<00:06:09.479> these<00:06:09.749> numbers<00:06:10.229> to<00:06:10.469> be<00:06:10.939> let<00:06:11.939> me<00:06:12.059> share
guessed these numbers to be let me share
guessed these numbers to be let me share
with<00:06:12.539> you<00:06:12.749> the<00:06:12.929> results<00:06:13.379> of<00:06:13.529> a<00:06:14.039> survey<00:06:14.339> that
with you the results of a survey that
with you the results of a survey that
Harvard<00:06:15.239> Business<00:06:15.449> Review<00:06:15.719> was<00:06:16.409> kind<00:06:16.739> enough
Harvard Business Review was kind enough
Harvard Business Review was kind enough
to<00:06:17.099> run<00:06:17.519> of<00:06:17.759> its<00:06:17.999> readership<00:06:18.389> as<00:06:18.809> to<00:06:19.679> what
to run of its readership as to what
to run of its readership as to what
people's<00:06:20.579> guesses<00:06:21.259> along<00:06:22.259> these<00:06:22.469> dimensions
people's guesses along these dimensions
people's guesses along these dimensions
actually<00:06:23.519> were<00:06:25.429> so<00:06:26.429> a<00:06:26.759> couple<00:06:27.329> of
actually were so a couple of
actually were so a couple of
observations<00:06:28.860> stand<00:06:29.549> out<00:06:29.729> for<00:06:30.029> me<00:06:30.089> from<00:06:30.449> this
observations stand out for me from this
observations stand out for me from this
slide<00:06:31.369> first<00:06:32.369> of<00:06:32.519> all<00:06:33.019> there<00:06:34.019> is<00:06:34.049> a<00:06:34.199> suggestion
slide first of all there is a suggestion
slide first of all there is a suggestion
of<00:06:35.189> some<00:06:35.459> error
second<00:06:40.290> these<00:06:41.290> are<00:06:41.350> pretty<00:06:41.740> large<00:06:41.880> errors<00:06:42.880> for
second these are pretty large errors for
second these are pretty large errors for
four<00:06:44.020> quantities<00:06:44.620> whose<00:06:44.949> average<00:06:45.190> value<00:06:45.940> is
four quantities whose average value is
four quantities whose average value is
less<00:06:46.360> than<00:06:46.389> 10%<00:06:47.040> you<00:06:48.040> have<00:06:48.160> people<00:06:48.550> guessing
less than 10% you have people guessing
less than 10% you have people guessing
three<00:06:49.479> four<00:06:50.139> times<00:06:50.650> that<00:06:50.919> level<00:06:51.449> even<00:06:52.449> though
three four times that level even though
three four times that level even though
I'm<00:06:52.840> an<00:06:52.960> economist<00:06:53.590> I<00:06:53.770> find<00:06:54.250> that<00:06:54.460> a<00:06:54.760> pretty
I'm an economist I find that a pretty
I'm an economist I find that a pretty
large<00:06:55.690> error<00:06:56.139> and<00:06:56.910> third<00:06:58.080> this<00:06:59.080> is<00:06:59.229> not<00:06:59.470> just
large error and third this is not just
large error and third this is not just
confined<00:07:00.070> to<00:07:00.610> the<00:07:00.790> readers<00:07:01.180> of<00:07:01.210> the<00:07:01.449> Harvard
confined to the readers of the Harvard
confined to the readers of the Harvard
Business<00:07:01.990> Review<00:07:02.260> I've<00:07:03.190> run<00:07:03.699> several<00:07:04.120> dozen
Business Review I've run several dozen
Business Review I've run several dozen
such<00:07:04.990> surveys<00:07:05.530> in<00:07:05.800> different<00:07:06.280> parts<00:07:06.580> of<00:07:06.699> the
such surveys in different parts of the
such surveys in different parts of the
world<00:07:06.970> and<00:07:07.449> in<00:07:08.050> all<00:07:08.320> cases<00:07:08.680> except<00:07:09.550> one<00:07:09.850> where
world and in all cases except one where
world and in all cases except one where
a<00:07:10.720> group<00:07:11.139> actually<00:07:11.850> underestimated<00:07:12.850> the
a group actually underestimated the
a group actually underestimated the
trade<00:07:13.990> to<00:07:14.229> GDP<00:07:14.260> ratio<00:07:15.220> people<00:07:16.030> have<00:07:16.300> this
trade to GDP ratio people have this
trade to GDP ratio people have this
tendency<00:07:16.630> towards<00:07:17.560> over<00:07:17.889> estimation<00:07:18.430> and<00:07:18.880> so
tendency towards over estimation and so
tendency towards over estimation and so
I<00:07:19.600> thought<00:07:19.900> it<00:07:20.020> important<00:07:20.590> to<00:07:20.740> give<00:07:20.919> a<00:07:20.949> name<00:07:21.310> to
I thought it important to give a name to
I thought it important to give a name to
this<00:07:21.820> and<00:07:22.120> that's<00:07:22.780> what<00:07:23.020> I<00:07:23.080> refer<00:07:23.530> to<00:07:23.560> as
this and that's what I refer to as
this and that's what I refer to as
global<00:07:24.400> oniy<00:07:24.610> the<00:07:25.449> difference<00:07:25.960> between<00:07:26.530> the
global oniy the difference between the
global oniy the difference between the
dark<00:07:27.310> blue<00:07:27.580> bars<00:07:27.880> and<00:07:28.320> the<00:07:29.320> light<00:07:29.560> gray<00:07:29.949> bars
dark blue bars and the light gray bars
dark blue bars and the light gray bars
especially<00:07:31.900> because<00:07:32.650> I<00:07:32.949> suspect<00:07:33.270> some<00:07:34.270> of<00:07:34.300> you
especially because I suspect some of you
especially because I suspect some of you
may<00:07:34.840> still<00:07:35.199> be<00:07:35.260> a<00:07:35.710> little<00:07:36.220> bit<00:07:36.430> skeptical<00:07:37.090> of
may still be a little bit skeptical of
may still be a little bit skeptical of
the<00:07:37.900> claims<00:07:38.199> I<00:07:38.470> think<00:07:38.770> it's<00:07:39.100> important<00:07:39.580> to
the claims I think it's important to
the claims I think it's important to
just<00:07:39.729> spend<00:07:40.180> a<00:07:40.330> little<00:07:40.389> bit<00:07:40.720> of<00:07:40.870> time<00:07:41.229> thinking
just spend a little bit of time thinking
just spend a little bit of time thinking
about<00:07:42.340> why<00:07:42.970> we<00:07:43.240> might<00:07:43.270> be<00:07:43.570> prone<00:07:44.229> to<00:07:44.460> global
about why we might be prone to global
about why we might be prone to global
oniy<00:07:46.080> couple<00:07:47.080> of<00:07:47.229> different<00:07:47.590> reasons<00:07:47.770> come<00:07:48.310> to
oniy couple of different reasons come to
oniy couple of different reasons come to
mind<00:07:48.930> first<00:07:49.930> of<00:07:50.110> all<00:07:50.260> there's<00:07:51.070> a<00:07:51.160> real<00:07:51.340> dearth
mind first of all there's a real dearth
mind first of all there's a real dearth
of<00:07:51.940> data<00:07:52.240> in<00:07:52.599> the<00:07:52.840> debate<00:07:53.139> let<00:07:54.010> me<00:07:54.130> give<00:07:54.310> you<00:07:54.430> an
of data in the debate let me give you an
of data in the debate let me give you an
example<00:07:54.990> when<00:07:55.990> I<00:07:56.020> first<00:07:56.110> published<00:07:56.620> some<00:07:57.099> of
example when I first published some of
example when I first published some of
these<00:07:57.400> data<00:07:57.729> a<00:07:57.910> few<00:07:58.330> years<00:07:58.630> ago<00:07:58.810> in<00:07:59.200> a<00:07:59.560> magazine
these data a few years ago in a magazine
these data a few years ago in a magazine
called<00:08:00.250> foreign<00:08:00.669> policy<00:08:01.410> one<00:08:02.410> of<00:08:02.500> the<00:08:02.590> people
called foreign policy one of the people
called foreign policy one of the people
who<00:08:03.010> wrote<00:08:03.220> in<00:08:03.490> not<00:08:04.060> entirely<00:08:04.539> an<00:08:04.780> agreement
who wrote in not entirely an agreement
who wrote in not entirely an agreement
was<00:08:05.710> Tom<00:08:05.979> Friedman<00:08:06.520> and<00:08:07.289> since<00:08:08.289> my<00:08:08.440> article
was Tom Friedman and since my article
was Tom Friedman and since my article
was<00:08:09.130> titled<00:08:09.400> why<00:08:09.760> the<00:08:09.820> world<00:08:10.120> isn't<00:08:10.389> flat<00:08:10.690> that
was titled why the world isn't flat that
was titled why the world isn't flat that
wasn't<00:08:11.650> too<00:08:11.860> surprising<00:08:13.740> what<00:08:14.740> was<00:08:15.070> very
wasn't too surprising what was very
wasn't too surprising what was very
surprising<00:08:16.449> to<00:08:16.479> me<00:08:16.750> was<00:08:17.320> Tom's<00:08:17.680> critique
surprising to me was Tom's critique
surprising to me was Tom's critique
which<00:08:19.150> was<00:08:19.419> game<00:08:20.320> 'ow<00:08:20.470> it's<00:08:20.740> data<00:08:21.190> are<00:08:21.639> narrow
which was game 'ow it's data are narrow
which was game 'ow it's data are narrow
and<00:08:23.190> this<00:08:24.190> caused<00:08:24.490> me<00:08:24.699> to<00:08:24.849> scratch<00:08:25.150> my<00:08:25.449> head
and this caused me to scratch my head
and this caused me to scratch my head
because<00:08:26.620> as<00:08:26.770> I<00:08:26.860> went<00:08:27.130> back<00:08:27.400> through<00:08:27.430> his
because as I went back through his
because as I went back through his
several<00:08:28.479> hundred<00:08:28.810> page<00:08:29.080> book<00:08:29.110> I<00:08:29.820> couldn't
several hundred page book I couldn't
several hundred page book I couldn't
find<00:08:31.120> a<00:08:31.389> single<00:08:31.690> figure<00:08:32.130> chart<00:08:33.150> table
find a single figure chart table
find a single figure chart table
reference<00:08:35.140> or<00:08:35.349> footnote<00:08:36.479> so<00:08:37.479> my<00:08:38.380> point<00:08:38.680> is<00:08:38.979> I
reference or footnote so my point is I
reference or footnote so my point is I
haven't<00:08:39.700> presented<00:08:40.330> a<00:08:40.419> lot<00:08:40.599> of<00:08:40.659> data<00:08:41.020> here<00:08:41.200> to
haven't presented a lot of data here to
haven't presented a lot of data here to
convince<00:08:42.310> you<00:08:42.459> that<00:08:42.490> I'm<00:08:42.760> right<00:08:43.029> but<00:08:43.630> I<00:08:43.690> would
convince you that I'm right but I would
convince you that I'm right but I would
urge<00:08:44.320> you<00:08:44.770> to<00:08:44.800> go<00:08:45.580> away<00:08:45.760> and<00:08:46.240> look<00:08:46.870> for<00:08:47.110> your
urge you to go away and look for your
urge you to go away and look for your
own<00:08:47.500> data<00:08:47.829> to<00:08:48.640> try<00:08:48.910> and<00:08:49.120> actually<00:08:49.690> assess
own data to try and actually assess
own data to try and actually assess
whether<00:08:50.890> some<00:08:51.280> of<00:08:51.400> this
whether some of this
whether some of this
these<00:08:52.370> hand-me-down<00:08:53.150> insights<00:08:53.810> that<00:08:54.650> we've
these hand-me-down insights that we've
these hand-me-down insights that we've
been<00:08:55.130> bombarded<00:08:55.340> with<00:08:55.780> actually<00:08:56.780> are<00:08:56.930> correct
been bombarded with actually are correct
been bombarded with actually are correct
so<00:08:58.280> dearth<00:08:58.580> of<00:08:58.760> data<00:08:59.060> in<00:08:59.420> the<00:08:59.810> debate<00:09:00.140> is<00:09:00.350> one
so dearth of data in the debate is one
so dearth of data in the debate is one
reason<00:09:01.100> a<00:09:01.340> second<00:09:02.330> reason<00:09:02.480> has<00:09:02.810> to<00:09:03.140> do<00:09:03.320> with
reason a second reason has to do with
reason a second reason has to do with
peer<00:09:04.220> pressure<00:09:04.810> I<00:09:05.810> remember<00:09:06.560> I<00:09:07.250> decided<00:09:07.850> to
peer pressure I remember I decided to
peer pressure I remember I decided to
write<00:09:08.210> my<00:09:08.270> why<00:09:08.780> the<00:09:08.840> world<00:09:09.140> isn't<00:09:09.380> flat
write my why the world isn't flat
write my why the world isn't flat
article<00:09:10.430> because<00:09:11.090> I<00:09:11.120> was<00:09:11.450> being<00:09:11.720> interviewed
article because I was being interviewed
article because I was being interviewed
on<00:09:12.590> TV<00:09:13.130> and<00:09:13.370> Mumbai<00:09:13.730> and<00:09:14.260> the<00:09:15.260> interviewers
on TV and Mumbai and the interviewers
on TV and Mumbai and the interviewers
first<00:09:16.310> question<00:09:16.850> to<00:09:17.060> me<00:09:17.210> was<00:09:17.650> Professor
first question to me was Professor
first question to me was Professor
Ghemawat<00:09:19.600> why<00:09:20.600> do<00:09:20.660> you<00:09:20.900> still<00:09:21.320> believe<00:09:21.890> that
Ghemawat why do you still believe that
Ghemawat why do you still believe that
the<00:09:22.430> world<00:09:22.640> is<00:09:22.880> round<00:09:23.240> and<00:09:23.950> I<00:09:24.950> started
the world is round and I started
the world is round and I started
laughing
laughing
laughing
because<00:09:26.510> I<00:09:26.540> hadn't<00:09:26.960> come<00:09:27.140> across<00:09:27.260> that
because I hadn't come across that
because I hadn't come across that
formulation<00:09:28.370> before<00:09:28.940> and<00:09:29.810> as<00:09:30.140> I<00:09:30.350> was<00:09:30.500> laughing
formulation before and as I was laughing
formulation before and as I was laughing
I<00:09:31.220> was<00:09:31.430> thinking<00:09:31.910> I<00:09:32.090> really<00:09:32.600> need<00:09:32.840> a<00:09:33.020> more
I was thinking I really need a more
I was thinking I really need a more
coherent<00:09:33.920> response<00:09:34.100> especially<00:09:34.940> a<00:09:35.270> national
coherent response especially a national
coherent response especially a national
TV<00:09:36.050> I'd<00:09:36.710> better<00:09:36.980> write<00:09:37.280> something<00:09:37.910> about<00:09:38.120> this
TV I'd better write something about this
TV I'd better write something about this
but<00:09:39.650> what<00:09:39.830> I<00:09:39.860> can't<00:09:40.220> quite<00:09:40.670> capture<00:09:41.180> for<00:09:41.720> you
but what I can't quite capture for you
but what I can't quite capture for you
was<00:09:42.770> the<00:09:42.800> pity<00:09:43.370> and<00:09:43.610> disbelief<00:09:44.540> with<00:09:45.440> which
was the pity and disbelief with which
was the pity and disbelief with which
the<00:09:45.950> interviewer<00:09:46.490> asked<00:09:47.030> her<00:09:47.120> question<00:09:47.740> the
the interviewer asked her question the
the interviewer asked her question the
perspective<00:09:49.430> was<00:09:49.640> here<00:09:50.570> is<00:09:50.750> this<00:09:50.990> poor
perspective was here is this poor
perspective was here is this poor
professor<00:09:51.980> he's<00:09:52.820> clearly<00:09:53.330> been<00:09:53.510> in<00:09:54.020> a<00:09:54.140> cave
professor he's clearly been in a cave
professor he's clearly been in a cave
for<00:09:55.160> the<00:09:55.250> last<00:09:55.490> 20,000<00:09:56.480> years<00:09:56.780> he<00:09:57.650> really<00:09:58.070> has
for the last 20,000 years he really has
for the last 20,000 years he really has
no<00:09:58.340> idea<00:09:58.970> as<00:09:59.840> to<00:10:00.170> what's<00:10:00.650> actually<00:10:00.920> going<00:10:01.550> on
no idea as to what's actually going on
no idea as to what's actually going on
in<00:10:01.850> the<00:10:02.030> world<00:10:02.300> so<00:10:02.890> try<00:10:03.890> this<00:10:03.950> out<00:10:04.280> with<00:10:04.670> your
in the world so try this out with your
in the world so try this out with your
friends<00:10:05.630> and<00:10:05.720> acquaintances<00:10:06.410> if<00:10:06.650> you<00:10:06.800> like
friends and acquaintances if you like
friends and acquaintances if you like
you'll<00:10:07.760> find<00:10:08.120> that<00:10:08.450> it's<00:10:08.810> very<00:10:08.930> cool<00:10:09.650> to<00:10:10.340> talk
you'll find that it's very cool to talk
you'll find that it's very cool to talk
about<00:10:10.730> the<00:10:11.030> world<00:10:11.240> being<00:10:11.600> one<00:10:11.870> etc<00:10:12.680> if<00:10:13.370> you
about the world being one etc if you
about the world being one etc if you
raise<00:10:13.790> questions<00:10:14.300> about<00:10:14.810> that<00:10:15.140> formulation
raise questions about that formulation
raise questions about that formulation
you<00:10:16.880> really<00:10:17.210> are<00:10:17.450> considered<00:10:18.170> a<00:10:18.380> bit<00:10:18.980> of<00:10:19.100> an
you really are considered a bit of an
you really are considered a bit of an
antique<00:10:19.670> and<00:10:20.260> then<00:10:21.260> the<00:10:21.350> final<00:10:21.770> reason<00:10:22.010> which
antique and then the final reason which
antique and then the final reason which
I<00:10:23.120> mentioned<00:10:23.810> especially<00:10:23.960> to<00:10:24.530> a<00:10:24.560> TED<00:10:24.980> audience
I mentioned especially to a TED audience
I mentioned especially to a TED audience
with<00:10:25.940> some<00:10:26.240> trepidation<00:10:26.980> has<00:10:27.980> to<00:10:28.220> do<00:10:28.400> with
with some trepidation has to do with
with some trepidation has to do with
what<00:10:28.760> I<00:10:28.790> call<00:10:29.120> techno<00:10:29.630> trances<00:10:30.200> if<00:10:30.440> you<00:10:31.130> listen
what I call techno trances if you listen
what I call techno trances if you listen
to<00:10:31.520> techno<00:10:31.820> music<00:10:32.540> for<00:10:32.780> long<00:10:32.960> periods<00:10:33.470> of<00:10:33.590> time
to techno music for long periods of time
to techno music for long periods of time
it<00:10:34.160> does<00:10:34.820> things<00:10:35.210> to<00:10:35.540> your<00:10:35.660> brainwave
it does things to your brainwave
it does things to your brainwave
activity<00:10:38.080> something<00:10:39.080> similar<00:10:39.770> seems<00:10:40.340> to
activity something similar seems to
activity something similar seems to
happen<00:10:40.930> with<00:10:42.070> exaggerated<00:10:43.120> conceptions<00:10:44.120> of
happen with exaggerated conceptions of
happen with exaggerated conceptions of
how<00:10:45.110> technology<00:10:46.070> is<00:10:46.340> going<00:10:47.150> to<00:10:47.360> overpower<00:10:47.960> in
how technology is going to overpower in
how technology is going to overpower in
the<00:10:48.860> very<00:10:49.220> immediate<00:10:49.730> run<00:10:50.240> all<00:10:50.500> cultural
the very immediate run all cultural
the very immediate run all cultural
barriers<00:10:52.070> all<00:10:52.400> political<00:10:53.240> barriers<00:10:53.780> all
barriers all political barriers all
barriers all political barriers all
Geographic<00:10:55.310> barriers<00:10:55.520> because<00:10:56.510> at<00:10:56.810> this
Geographic barriers because at this
Geographic barriers because at this
point<00:10:57.260> I<00:10:57.590> know<00:10:57.980> you<00:10:58.130> aren't<00:10:58.490> allowed<00:10:58.820> to<00:10:58.850> ask
point I know you aren't allowed to ask
point I know you aren't allowed to ask
me<00:10:59.330> questions<00:10:59.360> but<00:11:00.260> when<00:11:00.470> I<00:11:00.500> get<00:11:00.620> to<00:11:00.920> this
me questions but when I get to this
me questions but when I get to this
point<00:11:01.340> in<00:11:01.520> my<00:11:01.550> lecture<00:11:02.120> with<00:11:02.240> my<00:11:02.450> students
point in my lecture with my students
point in my lecture with my students
hands<00:11:03.860> go<00:11:04.040> up<00:11:04.070> and<00:11:04.550> people<00:11:05.390> ask
hands go up and people ask
hands go up and people ask
yeah<00:11:06.230> but<00:11:06.590> what<00:11:06.950> about<00:11:07.240> Facebook<00:11:08.240> and<00:11:09.050> I<00:11:09.890> got
yeah but what about Facebook and I got
yeah but what about Facebook and I got
this<00:11:10.220> question<00:11:10.520> often<00:11:10.940> enough<00:11:11.390> that<00:11:11.690> I
this question often enough that I
this question often enough that I
thought<00:11:12.020> I'd<00:11:12.260> better<00:11:12.440> do<00:11:12.740> some<00:11:13.010> research<00:11:13.400> on
thought I'd better do some research on
thought I'd better do some research on
Facebook<00:11:14.440> because<00:11:15.440> in<00:11:15.650> some<00:11:15.860> sense<00:11:16.100> it's<00:11:17.000> the
Facebook because in some sense it's the
Facebook because in some sense it's the
ideal<00:11:17.540> kind<00:11:17.840> of<00:11:18.050> technology<00:11:18.770> to<00:11:18.800> think<00:11:19.130> about
ideal kind of technology to think about
ideal kind of technology to think about
theoretically<00:11:21.010> makes<00:11:22.010> it<00:11:22.190> as<00:11:22.340> easy<00:11:22.850> to<00:11:23.180> form
theoretically makes it as easy to form
theoretically makes it as easy to form
friendships<00:11:23.690> halfway<00:11:24.440> around<00:11:24.590> the<00:11:24.860> world<00:11:24.920> as
friendships halfway around the world as
friendships halfway around the world as
opposed<00:11:26.210> to<00:11:26.360> right<00:11:26.630> next<00:11:27.260> door
opposed to right next door
opposed to right next door
what<00:11:29.390> percentage<00:11:30.140> of<00:11:30.400> people's<00:11:31.400> friends<00:11:32.000> on
what percentage of people's friends on
what percentage of people's friends on
Facebook<00:11:34.130> are<00:11:34.400> actually<00:11:35.180> located<00:11:35.750> in
Facebook are actually located in
Facebook are actually located in
countries<00:11:36.620> other<00:11:36.860> than<00:11:37.100> where<00:11:37.580> people<00:11:38.510> we're
countries other than where people we're
countries other than where people we're
analyzing<00:11:39.020> our<00:11:39.590> based<00:11:40.390> the<00:11:41.390> answer<00:11:41.900> is
analyzing our based the answer is
analyzing our based the answer is
probably<00:11:42.650> somewhere<00:11:43.610> between<00:11:43.670> 10<00:11:44.570> to<00:11:44.960> 15%<00:11:47.170> not
probably somewhere between 10 to 15% not
probably somewhere between 10 to 15% not
negligible<00:11:48.920> so<00:11:49.370> we<00:11:49.520> don't<00:11:49.700> live<00:11:49.940> in<00:11:50.030> an
negligible so we don't live in an
negligible so we don't live in an
entirely<00:11:50.570> local<00:11:51.170> or<00:11:51.320> national<00:11:51.500> world<00:11:52.010> but
entirely local or national world but
entirely local or national world but
very<00:11:52.940> very<00:11:53.450> far<00:11:53.900> from<00:11:54.230> the<00:11:54.430> 95%<00:11:55.430> level<00:11:55.700> that
very very far from the 95% level that
very very far from the 95% level that
you<00:11:56.300> would<00:11:56.450> expect<00:11:56.900> and<00:11:57.290> the<00:11:57.920> reason<00:11:58.250> is<00:11:58.310> very
you would expect and the reason is very
you would expect and the reason is very
simple<00:11:59.090> we<00:11:59.660> don't<00:11:59.960> or<00:12:00.260> I<00:12:00.320> hope<00:12:00.710> we<00:12:00.950> don't<00:12:01.160> form
simple we don't or I hope we don't form
simple we don't or I hope we don't form
friendships<00:12:02.390> at<00:12:02.870> random<00:12:03.440> on<00:12:03.850> Facebook<00:12:05.170> there
friendships at random on Facebook there
friendships at random on Facebook there
the<00:12:06.590> technology<00:12:07.070> is<00:12:07.580> overlaid<00:12:08.270> on<00:12:08.540> a
the technology is overlaid on a
the technology is overlaid on a
pre-existing<00:12:09.860> matrix<00:12:10.400> of<00:12:10.640> relationships
pre-existing matrix of relationships
pre-existing matrix of relationships
that<00:12:12.200> we<00:12:12.350> have<00:12:12.620> and<00:12:12.920> those<00:12:13.790> relationships<00:12:14.180> are
that we have and those relationships are
that we have and those relationships are
what<00:12:15.410> the<00:12:15.560> technology<00:12:15.890> doesn't<00:12:16.460> quite
what the technology doesn't quite
what the technology doesn't quite
displace<00:12:17.360> those<00:12:18.230> relationships<00:12:19.010> are<00:12:19.220> why<00:12:19.400> we
displace those relationships are why we
displace those relationships are why we
get<00:12:20.300> far<00:12:20.660> fewer<00:12:20.990> than<00:12:21.260> 95%<00:12:21.860> of<00:12:22.400> our<00:12:22.550> friends
get far fewer than 95% of our friends
get far fewer than 95% of our friends
being<00:12:23.720> located<00:12:24.350> in<00:12:24.470> countries<00:12:24.740> other<00:12:25.340> than
being located in countries other than
being located in countries other than
where<00:12:26.000> we<00:12:26.240> are<00:12:26.620> so<00:12:28.570> does<00:12:29.570> all<00:12:29.780> this<00:12:30.140> matter<00:12:30.500> or
where we are so does all this matter or
where we are so does all this matter or
is<00:12:31.820> global<00:12:32.240> Oni<00:12:32.450> just<00:12:33.200> a<00:12:33.350> harmless<00:12:33.710> way<00:12:33.920> of
is global Oni just a harmless way of
is global Oni just a harmless way of
getting<00:12:35.360> people<00:12:35.570> to<00:12:36.290> pay<00:12:36.500> more<00:12:36.890> attention<00:12:37.130> to
getting people to pay more attention to
getting people to pay more attention to
globalization<00:12:38.990> related<00:12:39.620> issues<00:12:40.010> I<00:12:40.220> want<00:12:41.180> to
globalization related issues I want to
globalization related issues I want to
suggest<00:12:41.420> that<00:12:42.020> actually<00:12:42.610> global<00:12:43.610> Oni
suggest that actually global Oni
suggest that actually global Oni
can<00:12:44.540> be<00:12:44.720> very<00:12:45.080> harmful<00:12:45.470> to<00:12:46.010> your<00:12:46.430> health
can be very harmful to your health
can be very harmful to your health
first<00:12:48.050> of<00:12:48.260> all<00:12:48.460> recognizing<00:12:49.460> that<00:12:50.180> the<00:12:50.330> glass
first of all recognizing that the glass
first of all recognizing that the glass
is<00:12:50.900> only<00:12:51.530> 10<00:12:51.920> to<00:12:52.220> 20<00:12:52.610> percent<00:12:52.790> full<00:12:53.360> it's
is only 10 to 20 percent full it's
is only 10 to 20 percent full it's
critical<00:12:54.680> to<00:12:54.860> seeing<00:12:55.160> that<00:12:55.370> there<00:12:55.610> might<00:12:55.880> be
critical to seeing that there might be
critical to seeing that there might be
potential<00:12:56.600> for<00:12:56.990> additional<00:12:57.890> gains<00:12:58.220> from
potential for additional gains from
potential for additional gains from
additional<00:12:59.300> integration<00:13:00.100> whereas<00:13:01.100> if<00:13:01.250> we
additional integration whereas if we
additional integration whereas if we
thought<00:13:01.640> we<00:13:01.850> were<00:13:02.000> all<00:13:02.210> dirty<00:13:02.450> there<00:13:02.770> there
thought we were all dirty there there
thought we were all dirty there there
would<00:13:03.920> be<00:13:03.950> no<00:13:04.250> particular<00:13:04.880> point<00:13:05.300> to<00:13:05.570> pushing
would be no particular point to pushing
would be no particular point to pushing
harder<00:13:06.740> it's<00:13:07.220> a<00:13:07.340> little<00:13:07.550> bit<00:13:07.700> like<00:13:07.940> we
harder it's a little bit like we
harder it's a little bit like we
wouldn't<00:13:08.690> be<00:13:08.930> having<00:13:09.140> a<00:13:09.500> conference<00:13:09.980> on
wouldn't be having a conference on
wouldn't be having a conference on
radical<00:13:10.520> openness<00:13:11.120> if<00:13:11.510> we<00:13:12.020> already<00:13:12.410> thought
radical openness if we already thought
radical openness if we already thought
we<00:13:12.890> were<00:13:13.040> totally<00:13:13.250> open<00:13:13.910> to<00:13:14.480> all<00:13:14.630> the<00:13:14.870> kinds<00:13:15.230> of
we were totally open to all the kinds of
we were totally open to all the kinds of
influences<00:13:15.770> that<00:13:16.400> are<00:13:16.670> being<00:13:16.880> talked<00:13:17.240> about
influences that are being talked about
influences that are being talked about
at<00:13:17.810> this<00:13:17.990> conference
at this conference
at this conference
so<00:13:19.460> being<00:13:19.820> accurate<00:13:20.510> about<00:13:21.200> how<00:13:21.470> limited
so being accurate about how limited
so being accurate about how limited
globalization<00:13:22.820> levels<00:13:23.240> are<00:13:23.480> is<00:13:23.860> critical<00:13:24.860> to
globalization levels are is critical to
globalization levels are is critical to
even<00:13:25.430> being<00:13:25.640> able<00:13:25.880> to<00:13:26.060> notice<00:13:26.600> that<00:13:27.230> there
even being able to notice that there
even being able to notice that there
might<00:13:27.680> be<00:13:27.710> room<00:13:28.280> for<00:13:29.240> something<00:13:29.660> more
might be room for something more
might be room for something more
something<00:13:30.830> that<00:13:31.010> would<00:13:31.340> contribute<00:13:31.820> further
something that would contribute further
something that would contribute further
to<00:13:33.050> global<00:13:33.410> welfare<00:13:33.760> which<00:13:34.760> brings<00:13:35.030> me<00:13:35.240> to<00:13:35.480> my
to global welfare which brings me to my
to global welfare which brings me to my
second<00:13:36.410> point<00:13:37.210> avoiding<00:13:38.210> overstatement<00:13:39.110> is
second point avoiding overstatement is
second point avoiding overstatement is
also<00:13:40.160> very<00:13:40.610> helpful<00:13:41.050> because<00:13:42.050> it<00:13:42.200> reduces<00:13:42.920> and
also very helpful because it reduces and
also very helpful because it reduces and
in<00:13:44.120> some<00:13:44.450> cases<00:13:44.720> even<00:13:45.080> reverses<00:13:46.070> some<00:13:46.850> of<00:13:46.970> the
in some cases even reverses some of the
in some cases even reverses some of the
fears<00:13:47.600> that<00:13:48.140> people<00:13:48.200> have<00:13:49.040> about
fears that people have about
fears that people have about
globalization<00:13:50.630> so<00:13:51.410> I<00:13:51.440> actually<00:13:51.560> spend<00:13:52.100> most
globalization so I actually spend most
globalization so I actually spend most
of<00:13:52.790> my<00:13:52.850> world<00:13:53.210> 3.0<00:13:53.900> book<00:13:54.200> working<00:13:55.070> through<00:13:55.400> a
of my world 3.0 book working through a
of my world 3.0 book working through a
litany<00:13:56.030> of<00:13:56.240> market<00:13:57.140> failures<00:13:57.680> and<00:13:57.980> fears<00:13:58.880> that
litany of market failures and fears that
litany of market failures and fears that
people<00:13:59.960> have<00:14:00.200> that<00:14:01.100> they<00:14:01.280> worry
people have that they worry
people have that they worry
globalization<00:14:02.750> is<00:14:02.870> going<00:14:03.170> to<00:14:03.320> exacerbate<00:14:03.830> I'm
globalization is going to exacerbate I'm
globalization is going to exacerbate I'm
obviously<00:14:05.030> not<00:14:05.570> going<00:14:05.840> to<00:14:05.930> be<00:14:06.050> able<00:14:06.230> to<00:14:06.380> do
obviously not going to be able to do
obviously not going to be able to do
that<00:14:06.890> for<00:14:07.160> you<00:14:07.280> today<00:14:07.520> so<00:14:08.300> let<00:14:08.450> me<00:14:08.570> just
that for you today so let me just
that for you today so let me just
present<00:14:08.990> to<00:14:09.470> you<00:14:09.620> two<00:14:10.100> headlines<00:14:10.730> as<00:14:11.030> an
present to you two headlines as an
present to you two headlines as an
illustration<00:14:12.050> of<00:14:12.440> what<00:14:12.920> I<00:14:12.950> have<00:14:13.220> in<00:14:13.400> mind
illustration of what I have in mind
illustration of what I have in mind
think<00:14:14.990> of<00:14:15.110> France<00:14:15.530> and<00:14:16.010> the<00:14:16.550> current<00:14:16.940> debate
think of France and the current debate
think of France and the current debate
about<00:14:17.420> immigration<00:14:18.490> when<00:14:19.490> you<00:14:19.610> ask<00:14:19.790> people<00:14:19.940> in
about immigration when you ask people in
about immigration when you ask people in
France<00:14:20.660> what<00:14:21.290> percentage<00:14:21.890> of<00:14:22.010> the<00:14:22.250> French
France what percentage of the French
France what percentage of the French
population<00:14:22.670> is<00:14:23.330> immigrants<00:14:23.900> the<00:14:24.440> answer<00:14:24.830> is
population is immigrants the answer is
population is immigrants the answer is
about<00:14:25.190> 24%<00:14:25.900> that's<00:14:26.900> their<00:14:27.170> guess<00:14:28.120> maybe
about 24% that's their guess maybe
about 24% that's their guess maybe
realizing<00:14:30.650> that<00:14:30.770> the<00:14:30.920> number<00:14:31.340> is<00:14:31.610> just<00:14:32.000> 8%
realizing that the number is just 8%
realizing that the number is just 8%
might<00:14:33.680> help<00:14:33.950> cool<00:14:34.460> some<00:14:35.360> of<00:14:35.750> the<00:14:36.140> superheated
might help cool some of the superheated
might help cool some of the superheated
rhetoric<00:14:37.520> that<00:14:37.730> we<00:14:38.240> see<00:14:38.540> around<00:14:38.810> the
rhetoric that we see around the
rhetoric that we see around the
immigration<00:14:39.980> issue<00:14:40.240> or<00:14:41.240> to<00:14:41.540> take<00:14:41.780> an<00:14:42.020> even
immigration issue or to take an even
immigration issue or to take an even
more<00:14:43.610> striking<00:14:43.840> example<00:14:44.840> when<00:14:45.440> the<00:14:45.560> Chicago
more striking example when the Chicago
more striking example when the Chicago
Council<00:14:46.190> on<00:14:46.520> Foreign<00:14:46.790> Relations<00:14:46.940> did<00:14:47.720> a
Council on Foreign Relations did a
Council on Foreign Relations did a
survey<00:14:48.320> of<00:14:48.530> Americans<00:14:49.430> asking<00:14:50.000> them<00:14:50.180> to<00:14:50.330> guess
survey of Americans asking them to guess
survey of Americans asking them to guess
what<00:14:51.110> percentage<00:14:51.800> of<00:14:51.920> the<00:14:52.040> federal<00:14:52.490> budget
what percentage of the federal budget
what percentage of the federal budget
went<00:14:53.330> to<00:14:53.540> foreign<00:14:53.960> aid<00:14:54.610> the<00:14:55.610> guess<00:14:55.880> was<00:14:56.240> 30%
went to foreign aid the guess was 30%
went to foreign aid the guess was 30%
which<00:14:58.220> is<00:14:59.290> slightly<00:15:00.290> in<00:15:00.680> excess<00:15:01.430> of<00:15:01.810> the
which is slightly in excess of the
which is slightly in excess of the
actual<00:15:03.380> level<00:15:03.710> of<00:15:04.130> u.s.<00:15:04.520> governmental
actual level of u.s. governmental
actual level of u.s. governmental
commitments<00:15:05.960> to<00:15:06.170> federal<00:15:06.530> aid<00:15:06.680> the
commitments to federal aid the
commitments to federal aid the
reassuring<00:15:08.300> thing<00:15:08.570> about<00:15:08.990> this<00:15:09.230> particular
reassuring thing about this particular
reassuring thing about this particular
survey<00:15:10.190> was<00:15:10.460> when<00:15:11.120> it<00:15:11.240> was<00:15:11.390> pointed<00:15:11.600> out<00:15:11.900> to
survey was when it was pointed out to
survey was when it was pointed out to
people<00:15:12.530> how<00:15:12.980> far<00:15:13.430> their<00:15:13.730> estimates<00:15:14.390> were<00:15:14.630> from
people how far their estimates were from
people how far their estimates were from
the<00:15:15.410> actual<00:15:15.740> data<00:15:16.180> some<00:15:17.180> of<00:15:17.330> them<00:15:17.480> not<00:15:17.990> all<00:15:18.020> of
the actual data some of them not all of
the actual data some of them not all of
them<00:15:18.440> seem<00:15:19.280> to<00:15:19.310> become<00:15:19.610> more<00:15:20.090> willing<00:15:20.360> to
them seem to become more willing to
them seem to become more willing to
consider<00:15:21.110> increases<00:15:22.070> in<00:15:22.310> foreign<00:15:23.030> aid<00:15:23.230> so<00:15:24.230> the
consider increases in foreign aid so the
consider increases in foreign aid so the
foreign<00:15:25.160> aid<00:15:25.280> is<00:15:25.340> actually<00:15:26.090> a<00:15:26.270> great<00:15:26.600> way<00:15:26.630> of
foreign aid is actually a great way of
foreign aid is actually a great way of
sort<00:15:27.440> of<00:15:27.500> wrapping<00:15:27.950> up<00:15:28.130> here<00:15:28.840> because<00:15:29.840> if<00:15:30.230> you
sort of wrapping up here because if you
sort of wrapping up here because if you
think<00:15:30.710> about<00:15:30.860> it<00:15:31.250> what<00:15:31.580> I've<00:15:31.700> been<00:15:31.850> talking
think about it what I've been talking
think about it what I've been talking
about
about
about
today<00:15:32.930> is<00:15:33.199> this<00:15:33.709> notion<00:15:33.980> very
today is this notion very
today is this notion very
uncontroversial<00:15:35.990> amongst<00:15:36.350> economists<00:15:36.649> that
uncontroversial amongst economists that
uncontroversial amongst economists that
most<00:15:37.879> things<00:15:38.209> are<00:15:38.389> very<00:15:38.569> home<00:15:38.990> biased<00:15:39.879> foreign
most things are very home biased foreign
most things are very home biased foreign
aid<00:15:41.089> is<00:15:41.360> the<00:15:41.449> most<00:15:42.110> aid<00:15:42.410> to<00:15:42.740> poor<00:15:42.980> people<00:15:43.220> is
aid is the most aid to poor people is
aid is the most aid to poor people is
about<00:15:44.449> the<00:15:44.660> most<00:15:44.899> home<00:15:45.259> biased<00:15:45.709> thing<00:15:45.949> you<00:15:46.100> can
about the most home biased thing you can
about the most home biased thing you can
find<00:15:46.610> if<00:15:46.939> you<00:15:47.509> look<00:15:47.750> at<00:15:47.959> the<00:15:48.199> OECD<00:15:48.500> countries
find if you look at the OECD countries
find if you look at the OECD countries
and<00:15:49.670> how<00:15:50.060> much<00:15:50.269> they<00:15:50.540> spend<00:15:50.959> per<00:15:51.410> domestic
and how much they spend per domestic
and how much they spend per domestic
poor<00:15:52.279> person<00:15:52.819> and<00:15:53.050> compare<00:15:54.050> it<00:15:54.170> with<00:15:54.199> how<00:15:54.350> much
poor person and compare it with how much
poor person and compare it with how much
they<00:15:54.889> spend<00:15:55.279> per<00:15:55.910> person<00:15:56.480> per<00:15:57.170> poor<00:15:57.410> person<00:15:57.889> in
they spend per person per poor person in
they spend per person per poor person in
poor<00:15:58.459> countries<00:15:58.699> the<00:15:59.529> ratio
poor countries the ratio
poor countries the ratio
Branko<00:16:01.279> Milanovic<00:16:01.310> at<00:16:02.029> the<00:16:02.149> World<00:16:02.300> Bank<00:16:02.600> that
Branko Milanovic at the World Bank that
Branko Milanovic at the World Bank that
the<00:16:02.930> calculations<00:16:03.680> turns<00:16:04.459> out<00:16:04.699> to<00:16:04.879> be<00:16:05.029> about
the calculations turns out to be about
the calculations turns out to be about
thirty<00:16:05.990> thousand<00:16:06.769> to<00:16:07.279> one<00:16:08.500> now<00:16:09.500> of<00:16:09.889> course
thirty thousand to one now of course
thirty thousand to one now of course
some<00:16:12.439> of<00:16:12.470> us<00:16:12.709> if<00:16:13.009> we<00:16:13.250> truly<00:16:13.490> are<00:16:13.870> cosmopolitan
some of us if we truly are cosmopolitan
some of us if we truly are cosmopolitan
would<00:16:15.649> like<00:16:15.920> to<00:16:16.160> see<00:16:16.370> that<00:16:16.610> ratio<00:16:16.910> being
would like to see that ratio being
would like to see that ratio being
brought<00:16:17.689> down<00:16:17.720> to<00:16:18.290> one<00:16:18.680> is<00:16:18.829> to<00:16:19.009> one<00:16:19.600> I'd<00:16:20.600> like
brought down to one is to one I'd like
brought down to one is to one I'd like
to<00:16:21.050> make<00:16:21.199> the<00:16:21.350> suggestion<00:16:21.800> that<00:16:22.579> we<00:16:22.699> don't
to make the suggestion that we don't
to make the suggestion that we don't
need<00:16:23.149> to<00:16:23.360> aim<00:16:23.600> for<00:16:23.629> that<00:16:23.959> to<00:16:24.709> make<00:16:24.920> substantial
need to aim for that to make substantial
need to aim for that to make substantial
progress<00:16:25.790> from<00:16:26.750> where<00:16:26.930> we<00:16:27.110> are<00:16:27.139> if<00:16:27.680> we<00:16:28.550> simply
progress from where we are if we simply
progress from where we are if we simply
brought<00:16:29.240> that<00:16:29.480> ratio<00:16:29.779> down<00:16:30.290> to<00:16:30.860> fifteen
brought that ratio down to fifteen
brought that ratio down to fifteen
thousand<00:16:31.970> to<00:16:32.120> one<00:16:32.300> we<00:16:33.170> would<00:16:33.350> be<00:16:33.529> meeting
thousand to one we would be meeting
thousand to one we would be meeting
those<00:16:34.189> aid<00:16:34.550> targets<00:16:35.209> that<00:16:35.540> were<00:16:35.720> agreed<00:16:36.230> at
those aid targets that were agreed at
those aid targets that were agreed at
the<00:16:36.860> Rio<00:16:37.069> summit<00:16:37.430> 20<00:16:38.029> years<00:16:38.329> ago<00:16:38.480> that<00:16:39.319> the
the Rio summit 20 years ago that the
the Rio summit 20 years ago that the
summit<00:16:39.740> that<00:16:39.980> ended<00:16:40.370> last<00:16:40.639> week<00:16:40.939> made<00:16:41.660> no
summit that ended last week made no
summit that ended last week made no
further<00:16:42.139> progress<00:16:42.620> on<00:16:43.009> so<00:16:43.939> in<00:16:44.059> summary<00:16:44.449> while
further progress on so in summary while
further progress on so in summary while
radical<00:16:45.949> openness<00:16:46.309> is<00:16:46.610> great<00:16:46.910> given<00:16:47.870> how
radical openness is great given how
radical openness is great given how
closed<00:16:48.379> we<00:16:48.620> are<00:16:48.800> even<00:16:49.790> incremental<00:16:50.389> openness
closed we are even incremental openness
closed we are even incremental openness
could<00:16:51.800> make<00:16:52.040> things<00:16:52.370> dramatically<00:16:53.269> better
could make things dramatically better
could make things dramatically better
thank<00:16:54.529> you<00:16:54.620> very<00:16:54.769> much
thank you very much
thank you very much
[Applause]
[Applause]
[Applause]
[Music]
Pankaj Ghemawat, world, is, flat, global, globalization, globalisation, TED, TED, Talk, TED-Ed, Ed, TEDEducation
