The key to growth? Race with the machines - Erik Brynjolfsson
[Music]
[Music]
growth<00:00:16.800> is<00:00:16.960> not<00:00:17.279> dead
let's
let's
let's
let's<00:00:20.800> start<00:00:21.039> the<00:00:21.199> story<00:00:22.080> 120<00:00:23.039> years<00:00:23.359> ago<00:00:23.680> when
let's start the story 120 years ago when
let's start the story 120 years ago when
american<00:00:24.400> factories<00:00:24.880> began<00:00:25.119> to<00:00:25.359> electrify
american factories began to electrify
american factories began to electrify
their<00:00:26.160> operations<00:00:27.039> igniting<00:00:28.080> the<00:00:28.240> second
their operations igniting the second
their operations igniting the second
industrial<00:00:29.279> revolution
industrial revolution
industrial revolution
the<00:00:30.560> amazing<00:00:31.039> thing<00:00:31.279> is<00:00:31.760> that<00:00:31.920> productivity
the amazing thing is that productivity
the amazing thing is that productivity
did<00:00:32.640> not<00:00:32.880> increase<00:00:33.280> in<00:00:33.360> those<00:00:33.680> factories<00:00:34.559> for
did not increase in those factories for
did not increase in those factories for
30<00:00:35.280> years
30 years
30 years
30<00:00:36.800> years
30 years
30 years
that's<00:00:38.000> long<00:00:38.239> enough<00:00:38.480> for<00:00:38.640> a<00:00:38.719> generation<00:00:39.280> of
that's long enough for a generation of
that's long enough for a generation of
managers<00:00:39.840> to<00:00:40.000> retire
managers to retire
managers to retire
you<00:00:41.520> see<00:00:41.680> the<00:00:41.840> first<00:00:42.160> wave<00:00:42.480> of<00:00:42.640> managers
you see the first wave of managers
you see the first wave of managers
simply<00:00:43.920> replaced<00:00:44.399> their<00:00:44.559> steam<00:00:44.960> engines<00:00:45.600> with
simply replaced their steam engines with
simply replaced their steam engines with
electric<00:00:46.239> motors<00:00:47.039> but<00:00:47.200> they<00:00:47.360> didn't<00:00:47.600> redesign
electric motors but they didn't redesign
electric motors but they didn't redesign
the<00:00:48.320> factories<00:00:48.879> to<00:00:49.039> take<00:00:49.280> advantage<00:00:49.920> of<00:00:50.079> an
the factories to take advantage of an
the factories to take advantage of an
electricity's<00:00:50.879> flexibility<00:00:52.079> it<00:00:52.239> fell<00:00:52.480> to<00:00:52.640> the
electricity's flexibility it fell to the
electricity's flexibility it fell to the
next<00:00:53.199> generation<00:00:54.160> to<00:00:54.399> invent<00:00:54.719> new<00:00:54.960> work
next generation to invent new work
next generation to invent new work
processes<00:00:56.239> and<00:00:56.480> then
processes and then
processes and then
productivity<00:00:58.079> soared<00:00:58.879> often<00:00:59.359> doubling<00:01:00.000> or
productivity soared often doubling or
productivity soared often doubling or
even<00:01:00.559> tripling<00:01:01.039> in<00:01:01.199> those<00:01:01.520> factories
even tripling in those factories
even tripling in those factories
electricity<00:01:03.760> is<00:01:03.840> an<00:01:04.000> example<00:01:04.720> of<00:01:04.879> a<00:01:05.119> general
electricity is an example of a general
electricity is an example of a general
purpose<00:01:06.240> technology<00:01:07.119> like<00:01:07.360> the<00:01:07.439> steam<00:01:07.760> engine
purpose technology like the steam engine
purpose technology like the steam engine
before<00:01:08.400> it
before it
before it
general<00:01:09.840> purpose<00:01:10.240> technologies<00:01:10.880> drive<00:01:11.439> most
general purpose technologies drive most
general purpose technologies drive most
economic<00:01:12.400> growth<00:01:13.040> because<00:01:13.360> they<00:01:13.520> unleash
economic growth because they unleash
economic growth because they unleash
cascades<00:01:14.640> of<00:01:14.799> complementary<00:01:15.520> innovations
cascades of complementary innovations
cascades of complementary innovations
like<00:01:16.720> light<00:01:16.960> bulbs<00:01:17.360> and<00:01:17.439> yes<00:01:17.840> factory
like light bulbs and yes factory
like light bulbs and yes factory
redesign
redesign
redesign
is<00:01:20.159> there<00:01:20.320> a<00:01:20.479> general<00:01:20.799> purpose<00:01:21.119> technology<00:01:21.759> of
is there a general purpose technology of
is there a general purpose technology of
our<00:01:22.159> era
our era
our era
sure<00:01:24.320> it's<00:01:24.560> the<00:01:24.840> computer<00:01:26.159> but<00:01:26.479> technology
sure it's the computer but technology
sure it's the computer but technology
alone<00:01:27.600> is<00:01:27.759> not<00:01:28.000> enough
alone is not enough
alone is not enough
technology<00:01:29.920> is<00:01:30.080> not<00:01:30.320> destiny
technology is not destiny
technology is not destiny
we<00:01:31.920> shape<00:01:32.240> our<00:01:32.479> destiny<00:01:33.439> and<00:01:33.680> just<00:01:33.840> as<00:01:34.000> the
we shape our destiny and just as the
we shape our destiny and just as the
earlier<00:01:34.479> generation<00:01:34.960> of<00:01:35.119> managers<00:01:35.520> needed<00:01:35.840> to
earlier generation of managers needed to
earlier generation of managers needed to
redesign<00:01:36.479> their<00:01:36.720> factories<00:01:37.840> we're<00:01:38.079> going<00:01:38.159> to
redesign their factories we're going to
redesign their factories we're going to
need<00:01:38.400> to<00:01:38.560> reinvent<00:01:39.119> our<00:01:39.360> organizations<00:01:40.240> and
need to reinvent our organizations and
need to reinvent our organizations and
even<00:01:40.720> our<00:01:40.880> whole<00:01:41.119> economic<00:01:41.840> system
even our whole economic system
even our whole economic system
we're<00:01:43.200> not<00:01:43.360> doing<00:01:43.600> as<00:01:43.680> well<00:01:43.920> at<00:01:44.000> that<00:01:44.240> job<00:01:44.640> as
we're not doing as well at that job as
we're not doing as well at that job as
we<00:01:45.200> should<00:01:45.439> be
we should be
we should be
as<00:01:46.479> we'll<00:01:46.640> see<00:01:46.799> in<00:01:46.880> a<00:01:47.040> moment<00:01:47.439> productivity<00:01:48.079> is
as we'll see in a moment productivity is
as we'll see in a moment productivity is
actually<00:01:48.560> doing<00:01:49.119> all<00:01:49.439> right
actually doing all right
actually doing all right
but<00:01:50.799> it<00:01:50.960> has<00:01:51.119> become<00:01:51.439> decoupled<00:01:52.640> from<00:01:52.960> jobs
but it has become decoupled from jobs
but it has become decoupled from jobs
and<00:01:54.560> the<00:01:54.799> income<00:01:55.040> of<00:01:55.200> the<00:01:55.280> typical<00:01:55.759> worker
and the income of the typical worker
and the income of the typical worker
is<00:01:57.280> stagnating
is stagnating
is stagnating
these<00:01:58.960> troubles<00:01:59.360> are<00:01:59.520> sometimes
these troubles are sometimes
these troubles are sometimes
misdiagnosed
misdiagnosed
misdiagnosed
as
as
as
the<00:02:02.960> end<00:02:03.360> of<00:02:03.520> innovation
the end of innovation
the end of innovation
but<00:02:05.040> they<00:02:05.280> are<00:02:05.520> actually<00:02:06.320> the<00:02:06.479> growing<00:02:06.799> pains
but they are actually the growing pains
but they are actually the growing pains
of<00:02:07.280> what<00:02:07.439> andrew<00:02:07.759> mcafee<00:02:08.160> and<00:02:08.319> i<00:02:08.479> call
of what andrew mcafee and i call
of what andrew mcafee and i call
the<00:02:09.840> new<00:02:10.239> machine<00:02:10.959> age
the new machine age
the new machine age
let's<00:02:12.959> look<00:02:13.120> at<00:02:13.200> some<00:02:13.360> data
let's look at some data
let's look at some data
so<00:02:14.560> here's<00:02:14.879> gdp<00:02:15.440> per<00:02:15.680> person<00:02:16.080> in<00:02:16.239> america
so here's gdp per person in america
so here's gdp per person in america
there's<00:02:17.680> some<00:02:17.840> bumps<00:02:18.160> along<00:02:18.400> the<00:02:18.480> way<00:02:18.879> but<00:02:19.040> the
there's some bumps along the way but the
there's some bumps along the way but the
big<00:02:19.440> story<00:02:20.160> is<00:02:20.319> you<00:02:20.400> could<00:02:20.560> practically<00:02:21.120> fit<00:02:21.360> a
big story is you could practically fit a
big story is you could practically fit a
ruler<00:02:21.920> to<00:02:22.160> it<00:02:22.720> this<00:02:22.959> is<00:02:23.040> a<00:02:23.200> log<00:02:23.520> scale<00:02:24.160> so<00:02:24.400> it
ruler to it this is a log scale so it
ruler to it this is a log scale so it
looks<00:02:24.720> like<00:02:25.040> steady<00:02:25.440> growth<00:02:26.239> is<00:02:26.480> actually<00:02:26.720> an
looks like steady growth is actually an
looks like steady growth is actually an
acceleration<00:02:27.840> in<00:02:28.000> real<00:02:28.319> terms<00:02:29.120> and<00:02:29.280> here's
acceleration in real terms and here's
acceleration in real terms and here's
productivity
productivity
productivity
you<00:02:31.520> can<00:02:31.599> see<00:02:31.760> a<00:02:31.840> little<00:02:31.920> bit<00:02:32.080> of<00:02:32.160> a<00:02:32.239> slowdown
you can see a little bit of a slowdown
you can see a little bit of a slowdown
there<00:02:32.800> in<00:02:32.879> the<00:02:32.959> mid<00:02:33.280> 70s<00:02:34.239> but<00:02:34.400> it<00:02:34.560> matches<00:02:34.959> up
there in the mid 70s but it matches up
there in the mid 70s but it matches up
pretty<00:02:35.440> well<00:02:35.760> with<00:02:35.920> the<00:02:36.080> second<00:02:36.400> industrial
pretty well with the second industrial
pretty well with the second industrial
revolution<00:02:37.599> when<00:02:37.840> factories<00:02:38.239> were<00:02:38.400> learning
revolution when factories were learning
revolution when factories were learning
how<00:02:38.800> to<00:02:38.879> electrify<00:02:39.440> their<00:02:39.599> operations<00:02:40.560> after
how to electrify their operations after
how to electrify their operations after
a<00:02:41.040> lag<00:02:41.760> productivity<00:02:42.560> accelerated<00:02:43.280> again
a lag productivity accelerated again
a lag productivity accelerated again
so<00:02:45.120> maybe<00:02:45.440> history<00:02:45.760> doesn't<00:02:46.000> repeat<00:02:46.319> itself
so maybe history doesn't repeat itself
so maybe history doesn't repeat itself
but<00:02:47.519> sometimes<00:02:48.000> it<00:02:48.080> rhymes
but sometimes it rhymes
but sometimes it rhymes
today<00:02:50.160> productivity<00:02:50.879> is<00:02:51.040> at<00:02:51.200> an<00:02:51.440> all-time
today productivity is at an all-time
today productivity is at an all-time
high<00:02:52.879> and<00:02:53.040> despite<00:02:53.599> the<00:02:53.760> great<00:02:54.000> recession<00:02:54.959> it
high and despite the great recession it
high and despite the great recession it
grew<00:02:55.440> faster<00:02:55.920> in<00:02:56.000> the<00:02:56.160> 2000s<00:02:56.879> than<00:02:57.120> it<00:02:57.200> did<00:02:57.519> in
grew faster in the 2000s than it did in
grew faster in the 2000s than it did in
the<00:02:57.760> 1990s<00:02:58.720> the<00:02:58.879> roaring<00:02:59.200> 1990s<00:03:00.160> and<00:03:00.319> that<00:03:00.480> was
the 1990s the roaring 1990s and that was
the 1990s the roaring 1990s and that was
faster<00:03:01.120> than<00:03:01.280> the<00:03:01.840> 70s<00:03:02.319> or<00:03:02.400> 80s<00:03:03.040> it's<00:03:03.200> growing
faster than the 70s or 80s it's growing
faster than the 70s or 80s it's growing
faster<00:03:03.920> than<00:03:04.080> it<00:03:04.159> did<00:03:04.400> during<00:03:04.640> the<00:03:04.720> second
faster than it did during the second
faster than it did during the second
industrial<00:03:05.599> revolution
industrial revolution
industrial revolution
and<00:03:06.800> that's<00:03:07.040> just<00:03:07.200> the<00:03:07.360> united<00:03:07.680> states<00:03:08.480> the
and that's just the united states the
and that's just the united states the
global<00:03:08.959> news
global news
global news
is<00:03:10.400> even<00:03:10.720> better
is even better
is even better
worldwide<00:03:12.319> incomes<00:03:12.720> have<00:03:12.879> grown<00:03:13.120> at<00:03:13.280> a<00:03:13.360> faster
worldwide incomes have grown at a faster
worldwide incomes have grown at a faster
rate<00:03:14.239> in<00:03:14.319> the<00:03:14.480> past<00:03:14.720> decade<00:03:15.120> than<00:03:15.360> ever<00:03:15.680> in
rate in the past decade than ever in
rate in the past decade than ever in
history
history
history
if<00:03:17.120> anything<00:03:17.840> all<00:03:18.080> these<00:03:18.319> numbers<00:03:19.120> actually
if anything all these numbers actually
if anything all these numbers actually
understate<00:03:20.319> our<00:03:20.560> progress
understate our progress
understate our progress
because
because
because
the<00:03:23.040> new<00:03:23.200> machine<00:03:23.680> age<00:03:23.920> is<00:03:24.080> more<00:03:24.239> about
the new machine age is more about
the new machine age is more about
knowledge<00:03:24.959> creation<00:03:25.519> than<00:03:25.760> just<00:03:26.159> physical
knowledge creation than just physical
knowledge creation than just physical
production<00:03:27.599> it's<00:03:27.840> mind<00:03:28.319> not<00:03:28.560> matter<00:03:29.040> brain
production it's mind not matter brain
production it's mind not matter brain
not<00:03:29.920> brawn<00:03:30.480> ideas<00:03:31.519> not<00:03:31.760> things
not brawn ideas not things
not brawn ideas not things
that<00:03:33.120> creates<00:03:33.519> a<00:03:33.680> problem<00:03:34.000> for<00:03:34.159> standard
that creates a problem for standard
that creates a problem for standard
metrics<00:03:35.440> because<00:03:35.760> we're<00:03:36.000> getting<00:03:36.239> more<00:03:36.480> and
metrics because we're getting more and
metrics because we're getting more and
more<00:03:36.879> stuff<00:03:37.599> for<00:03:37.920> free
more stuff for free
more stuff for free
like<00:03:38.959> wikipedia<00:03:40.000> google<00:03:40.640> skype<00:03:41.200> and<00:03:41.280> if<00:03:41.440> they
like wikipedia google skype and if they
like wikipedia google skype and if they
post<00:03:41.840> on<00:03:42.000> the<00:03:42.080> web<00:03:42.720> even<00:03:42.959> this<00:03:43.200> ted<00:03:43.519> talk<00:03:44.159> now
post on the web even this ted talk now
post on the web even this ted talk now
getting<00:03:44.720> stuff<00:03:44.879> for<00:03:45.040> free<00:03:45.440> is<00:03:45.599> a<00:03:45.680> good<00:03:46.000> thing
getting stuff for free is a good thing
getting stuff for free is a good thing
right
right
right
sure<00:03:48.080> of<00:03:48.239> course<00:03:48.480> it<00:03:48.720> is
sure of course it is
sure of course it is
but<00:03:49.920> that's<00:03:50.480> not<00:03:50.799> how<00:03:51.120> economists<00:03:51.760> measure
but that's not how economists measure
but that's not how economists measure
gdp
gdp
gdp
zero<00:03:54.159> price
zero price
zero price
means<00:03:55.760> zero<00:03:56.159> weight<00:03:56.640> in<00:03:56.720> the<00:03:56.879> gdp<00:03:57.439> statistics
means zero weight in the gdp statistics
means zero weight in the gdp statistics
according<00:03:59.439> to<00:03:59.519> the<00:03:59.680> numbers<00:04:00.080> the<00:04:00.239> music
according to the numbers the music
according to the numbers the music
industry<00:04:00.959> is<00:04:01.120> half<00:04:01.439> the<00:04:01.599> size<00:04:02.239> that<00:04:02.480> it<00:04:02.560> was<00:04:02.959> 10
industry is half the size that it was 10
industry is half the size that it was 10
years<00:04:03.439> ago<00:04:04.239> but<00:04:04.400> i'm<00:04:04.640> listening<00:04:04.959> to<00:04:05.200> more<00:04:05.599> and
years ago but i'm listening to more and
years ago but i'm listening to more and
better<00:04:06.239> music<00:04:06.640> than<00:04:06.879> ever<00:04:07.599> you<00:04:07.680> know<00:04:07.840> i<00:04:07.920> bet
better music than ever you know i bet
better music than ever you know i bet
you<00:04:08.400> are<00:04:08.560> too
you are too
you are too
in<00:04:10.080> total<00:04:10.959> my<00:04:11.200> research<00:04:11.680> estimates<00:04:12.799> that<00:04:12.959> the
in total my research estimates that the
in total my research estimates that the
gdp<00:04:13.680> numbers<00:04:14.239> miss<00:04:14.560> over<00:04:14.959> 300<00:04:15.760> billion
gdp numbers miss over 300 billion
gdp numbers miss over 300 billion
dollars<00:04:16.560> per<00:04:16.799> year<00:04:17.440> in<00:04:17.600> free<00:04:17.759> goods<00:04:18.079> and
dollars per year in free goods and
dollars per year in free goods and
services<00:04:19.120> on<00:04:19.280> the<00:04:19.440> internet
services on the internet
services on the internet
now<00:04:20.959> let's<00:04:21.120> look<00:04:21.280> to<00:04:21.440> the<00:04:21.519> future
now let's look to the future
now let's look to the future
there<00:04:22.720> are<00:04:22.880> some<00:04:23.520> super<00:04:23.840> smart<00:04:24.240> people<00:04:25.120> who
there are some super smart people who
there are some super smart people who
are<00:04:26.080> arguing<00:04:26.560> that<00:04:26.720> we've<00:04:26.960> reached<00:04:27.520> the<00:04:27.840> end
are arguing that we've reached the end
are arguing that we've reached the end
of<00:04:28.400> growth
of growth
of growth
but
but
but
to<00:04:31.600> understand<00:04:32.240> the<00:04:32.400> future<00:04:32.720> of<00:04:32.880> growth
to understand the future of growth
to understand the future of growth
we<00:04:34.240> need<00:04:34.400> to<00:04:34.560> make<00:04:34.960> predictions
we need to make predictions
we need to make predictions
about<00:04:36.800> the<00:04:37.040> underlying<00:04:37.520> drivers<00:04:38.080> of<00:04:38.160> growth
about the underlying drivers of growth
about the underlying drivers of growth
i'm<00:04:39.919> optimistic
i'm optimistic
i'm optimistic
because<00:04:41.759> the<00:04:41.919> new<00:04:42.160> machine<00:04:42.639> age<00:04:43.199> is<00:04:43.440> digital
because the new machine age is digital
because the new machine age is digital
exponential
exponential
exponential
and<00:04:46.639> combinatorial
and combinatorial
and combinatorial
when<00:04:48.720> goods<00:04:49.040> are<00:04:49.199> digital<00:04:49.759> they<00:04:49.919> can<00:04:50.080> be
when goods are digital they can be
when goods are digital they can be
replicated<00:04:50.800> with<00:04:51.040> perfect<00:04:51.600> quality
replicated with perfect quality
replicated with perfect quality
at<00:04:53.199> nearly<00:04:53.600> zero<00:04:54.080> cost
at nearly zero cost
at nearly zero cost
and<00:04:55.360> they<00:04:55.440> can<00:04:55.600> be<00:04:55.759> delivered
and they can be delivered
and they can be delivered
almost<00:04:57.160> instantaneously
almost instantaneously
almost instantaneously
welcome<00:04:59.199> to<00:04:59.360> the<00:04:59.440> economics<00:05:00.160> of<00:05:00.320> abundance
welcome to the economics of abundance
welcome to the economics of abundance
but<00:05:01.919> there's<00:05:02.240> a<00:05:02.400> subtler<00:05:02.800> benefit<00:05:03.280> to<00:05:03.440> the
but there's a subtler benefit to the
but there's a subtler benefit to the
digitization<00:05:04.320> of<00:05:04.400> the<00:05:04.560> world
digitization of the world
digitization of the world
measurement<00:05:06.720> is<00:05:06.880> the<00:05:06.960> lifeblood<00:05:07.520> of<00:05:07.680> science
measurement is the lifeblood of science
measurement is the lifeblood of science
and<00:05:08.639> progress<00:05:10.080> in<00:05:10.160> the<00:05:10.320> age<00:05:10.560> of<00:05:10.720> big<00:05:10.960> data
and progress in the age of big data
and progress in the age of big data
we<00:05:12.240> can<00:05:12.560> measure<00:05:12.960> the<00:05:13.120> world<00:05:13.440> in<00:05:13.600> ways<00:05:13.919> we
we can measure the world in ways we
we can measure the world in ways we
never<00:05:14.560> could<00:05:14.960> before
never could before
never could before
secondly<00:05:17.600> the<00:05:17.759> new<00:05:17.919> machine<00:05:18.320> age<00:05:18.560> is
secondly the new machine age is
secondly the new machine age is
exponential
exponential
exponential
computers<00:05:21.600> get<00:05:21.919> better<00:05:22.720> faster<00:05:23.680> than
computers get better faster than
computers get better faster than
anything<00:05:24.479> else
anything else
anything else
ever
ever
ever
a<00:05:26.880> child's<00:05:27.280> playstation<00:05:27.919> today<00:05:28.800> is<00:05:28.960> more
a child's playstation today is more
a child's playstation today is more
powerful<00:05:30.080> than<00:05:30.320> a<00:05:30.479> military<00:05:31.039> supercomputer
powerful than a military supercomputer
powerful than a military supercomputer
from<00:05:32.240> 1996
from 1996
from 1996
but<00:05:34.639> our<00:05:34.800> brains<00:05:35.199> are<00:05:35.360> wired<00:05:35.680> for<00:05:35.840> a<00:05:35.919> linear
but our brains are wired for a linear
but our brains are wired for a linear
world
world
world
as<00:05:37.360> a<00:05:37.440> result<00:05:37.919> exponential<00:05:38.560> trends<00:05:39.120> take<00:05:39.360> us
as a result exponential trends take us
as a result exponential trends take us
by<00:05:39.759> surprise
by surprise
by surprise
i<00:05:41.680> used<00:05:41.840> to<00:05:42.000> teach<00:05:42.240> my<00:05:42.479> students<00:05:42.960> that<00:05:43.120> there
i used to teach my students that there
i used to teach my students that there
are<00:05:43.280> some<00:05:43.440> things<00:05:43.680> you<00:05:43.759> know<00:05:43.919> computers<00:05:44.400> just
are some things you know computers just
are some things you know computers just
aren't<00:05:44.800> good<00:05:45.039> at<00:05:45.600> like<00:05:46.080> driving<00:05:46.560> a<00:05:46.639> car
aren't good at like driving a car
aren't good at like driving a car
through<00:05:47.199> traffic
that's<00:05:50.720> right<00:05:51.120> here's<00:05:51.600> andy<00:05:51.919> and<00:05:52.080> me<00:05:52.320> grinning
that's right here's andy and me grinning
that's right here's andy and me grinning
like<00:05:52.960> mad<00:05:53.280> men<00:05:53.759> because<00:05:54.160> we<00:05:54.400> just<00:05:54.639> rode<00:05:54.960> down
like mad men because we just rode down
like mad men because we just rode down
route<00:05:55.360> 101<00:05:56.000> in<00:05:56.160> yes<00:05:56.880> a<00:05:57.039> driverless<00:05:58.000> car
route 101 in yes a driverless car
route 101 in yes a driverless car
thirdly<00:06:00.320> the<00:06:00.400> new<00:06:00.560> machine<00:06:00.880> age<00:06:01.120> is
thirdly the new machine age is
thirdly the new machine age is
combinatorial<00:06:02.320> the<00:06:02.479> stagnationist<00:06:03.360> view<00:06:03.840> is
combinatorial the stagnationist view is
combinatorial the stagnationist view is
that<00:06:04.160> ideas<00:06:05.039> get<00:06:05.360> used<00:06:05.759> up
that ideas get used up
that ideas get used up
like<00:06:06.720> low<00:06:06.960> hanging<00:06:07.360> fruit
like low hanging fruit
like low hanging fruit
but<00:06:08.400> the<00:06:08.560> reality<00:06:09.520> is<00:06:09.919> that<00:06:10.240> each<00:06:10.639> innovation
but the reality is that each innovation
but the reality is that each innovation
creates<00:06:12.000> building<00:06:12.400> blocks<00:06:12.800> for<00:06:13.039> even<00:06:13.360> more
creates building blocks for even more
creates building blocks for even more
innovations<00:06:14.800> here's<00:06:15.039> an<00:06:15.199> example
innovations here's an example
innovations here's an example
in<00:06:16.319> just<00:06:16.560> a<00:06:16.639> matter<00:06:16.880> of<00:06:17.039> a<00:06:17.120> few<00:06:17.360> weeks<00:06:18.000> an
in just a matter of a few weeks an
in just a matter of a few weeks an
undergraduate<00:06:18.960> student<00:06:19.280> of<00:06:19.360> mine<00:06:20.080> built<00:06:20.319> an
undergraduate student of mine built an
undergraduate student of mine built an
app<00:06:20.720> that<00:06:21.039> ultimately<00:06:21.520> reached<00:06:21.919> 1.3<00:06:22.720> million
app that ultimately reached 1.3 million
app that ultimately reached 1.3 million
users
users
users
he<00:06:24.400> was<00:06:24.560> able<00:06:24.720> to<00:06:24.880> do<00:06:24.960> that<00:06:25.199> so<00:06:25.440> easily<00:06:25.680> because
he was able to do that so easily because
he was able to do that so easily because
he<00:06:26.000> built<00:06:26.160> it<00:06:26.240> on<00:06:26.400> top<00:06:26.560> of<00:06:26.720> facebook<00:06:27.600> and
he built it on top of facebook and
he built it on top of facebook and
facebook<00:06:28.160> was<00:06:28.319> built<00:06:28.560> on<00:06:28.720> top<00:06:28.880> of<00:06:29.039> the<00:06:29.120> web<00:06:29.600> and
facebook was built on top of the web and
facebook was built on top of the web and
that<00:06:29.840> was<00:06:30.000> built<00:06:30.240> on<00:06:30.400> top<00:06:30.560> of<00:06:30.639> the<00:06:30.800> internet
that was built on top of the internet
that was built on top of the internet
and<00:06:31.440> so<00:06:31.600> on<00:06:32.160> and<00:06:32.319> so<00:06:32.639> forth
and so on and so forth
and so on and so forth
now<00:06:34.000> individually<00:06:35.120> digital
now individually digital
now individually digital
exponential<00:06:37.360> and<00:06:37.600> combinatorial<00:06:38.479> would<00:06:38.720> each
exponential and combinatorial would each
exponential and combinatorial would each
be<00:06:39.280> game<00:06:39.520> changers
be game changers
be game changers
put<00:06:40.800> them<00:06:40.960> together<00:06:41.759> and<00:06:41.919> we're<00:06:42.080> seeing<00:06:42.319> a
put them together and we're seeing a
put them together and we're seeing a
wave<00:06:42.720> of<00:06:42.800> astonishing<00:06:43.440> breakthroughs<00:06:44.319> like
wave of astonishing breakthroughs like
wave of astonishing breakthroughs like
robots<00:06:45.039> that<00:06:45.120> do<00:06:45.360> factory<00:06:45.919> work<00:06:46.160> or<00:06:46.319> run<00:06:46.560> as
robots that do factory work or run as
robots that do factory work or run as
fast<00:06:46.880> as<00:06:47.039> a<00:06:47.199> cheetah<00:06:47.680> or<00:06:47.919> leap<00:06:48.160> tall<00:06:48.400> buildings
fast as a cheetah or leap tall buildings
fast as a cheetah or leap tall buildings
in<00:06:48.880> a<00:06:49.039> single<00:06:49.360> bound<00:06:50.160> you<00:06:50.319> know<00:06:50.479> robots<00:06:51.039> are
in a single bound you know robots are
in a single bound you know robots are
even<00:06:51.520> revolutionizing<00:06:52.639> cat<00:06:52.960> transportation
but<00:06:57.440> perhaps<00:06:57.759> the<00:06:57.919> most<00:06:58.319> important<00:06:58.880> invention
but perhaps the most important invention
but perhaps the most important invention
the<00:06:59.520> most<00:06:59.759> important<00:07:00.080> invention
the most important invention
the most important invention
is<00:07:02.240> machine<00:07:03.039> learning
is machine learning
is machine learning
consider<00:07:04.960> one<00:07:05.280> project<00:07:06.080> ibm's<00:07:06.720> watson<00:07:07.680> these
consider one project ibm's watson these
consider one project ibm's watson these
little<00:07:08.160> dots<00:07:08.479> here
little dots here
little dots here
those<00:07:09.919> are<00:07:10.319> all<00:07:10.720> the<00:07:10.960> champions<00:07:12.080> on<00:07:12.160> the<00:07:12.319> quiz
those are all the champions on the quiz
those are all the champions on the quiz
show<00:07:13.120> jeopardy
show jeopardy
show jeopardy
at<00:07:14.639> first<00:07:15.039> watson<00:07:15.440> wasn't<00:07:15.680> very<00:07:16.000> good
at first watson wasn't very good
at first watson wasn't very good
but<00:07:17.440> it<00:07:17.680> improved<00:07:18.479> at<00:07:18.720> a<00:07:18.800> rate
but it improved at a rate
but it improved at a rate
faster<00:07:20.560> than<00:07:20.880> any<00:07:21.199> human<00:07:21.599> could<00:07:22.160> and<00:07:22.720> shortly
faster than any human could and shortly
faster than any human could and shortly
after<00:07:23.360> dave<00:07:23.599> hirucci<00:07:24.080> showed<00:07:24.400> this<00:07:24.639> chart<00:07:24.880> to
after dave hirucci showed this chart to
after dave hirucci showed this chart to
my<00:07:25.199> class<00:07:25.440> at<00:07:25.599> mit<00:07:26.639> watson<00:07:27.280> beat<00:07:27.759> the<00:07:27.919> world
my class at mit watson beat the world
my class at mit watson beat the world
jeopardy<00:07:28.720> champion
jeopardy champion
jeopardy champion
at<00:07:30.720> age<00:07:30.960> seven
at age seven
at age seven
watson<00:07:32.400> is<00:07:32.560> still<00:07:32.800> kind<00:07:32.960> of<00:07:33.120> in<00:07:33.199> its<00:07:33.440> childhood
watson is still kind of in its childhood
watson is still kind of in its childhood
recently<00:07:35.039> its<00:07:35.280> teachers<00:07:35.680> let<00:07:35.840> it<00:07:36.000> surf<00:07:36.240> the
recently its teachers let it surf the
recently its teachers let it surf the
internet
internet
internet
unsupervised
unsupervised
unsupervised
the<00:07:40.160> next<00:07:40.479> day<00:07:40.720> it<00:07:40.880> started<00:07:41.199> answering
the next day it started answering
the next day it started answering
questions<00:07:42.479> with<00:07:42.720> profanities
damn
damn
damn
but<00:07:48.080> you<00:07:48.160> know<00:07:48.400> watson<00:07:48.880> is<00:07:48.960> growing<00:07:49.280> up<00:07:49.520> fast
but you know watson is growing up fast
but you know watson is growing up fast
it's<00:07:50.479> being<00:07:50.720> tested<00:07:51.120> for<00:07:51.360> jobs<00:07:51.680> and<00:07:51.840> call
it's being tested for jobs and call
it's being tested for jobs and call
centers<00:07:53.039> and<00:07:53.199> it's<00:07:53.360> getting<00:07:53.680> them
centers and it's getting them
centers and it's getting them
it's<00:07:54.639> applying<00:07:55.120> for<00:07:55.360> legal
it's applying for legal
it's applying for legal
banking<00:07:56.879> and<00:07:57.120> medical<00:07:57.520> jobs<00:07:58.000> and<00:07:58.160> getting
banking and medical jobs and getting
banking and medical jobs and getting
some<00:07:58.639> of<00:07:58.720> them
some of them
some of them
isn't<00:08:00.319> ironic<00:08:00.800> that<00:08:00.960> at<00:08:01.039> the<00:08:01.199> very<00:08:01.440> moment<00:08:01.759> we
isn't ironic that at the very moment we
isn't ironic that at the very moment we
are<00:08:02.080> building<00:08:02.479> intelligent<00:08:03.039> machines
are building intelligent machines
are building intelligent machines
perhaps<00:08:04.560> the<00:08:04.720> most<00:08:05.120> important<00:08:05.520> invention<00:08:06.160> in
perhaps the most important invention in
perhaps the most important invention in
human<00:08:06.639> history<00:08:07.599> some<00:08:07.840> people<00:08:08.000> are<00:08:08.160> arguing
human history some people are arguing
human history some people are arguing
that<00:08:08.639> innovation<00:08:09.039> is
that innovation is
that innovation is
stagnating<00:08:11.919> like<00:08:12.160> the<00:08:12.240> first<00:08:12.400> two<00:08:12.639> industrial
stagnating like the first two industrial
stagnating like the first two industrial
revolutions<00:08:14.160> the<00:08:14.319> full<00:08:14.639> implications<00:08:15.440> of<00:08:15.680> the
revolutions the full implications of the
revolutions the full implications of the
new<00:08:16.319> machine<00:08:16.720> age<00:08:16.960> are<00:08:17.039> going<00:08:17.199> to<00:08:17.280> take<00:08:17.520> at
new machine age are going to take at
new machine age are going to take at
least<00:08:17.840> a<00:08:18.000> century<00:08:18.400> to<00:08:18.560> fully<00:08:18.879> play<00:08:19.120> out
least a century to fully play out
least a century to fully play out
but<00:08:20.400> they<00:08:20.960> are<00:08:21.440> staggering
but they are staggering
but they are staggering
so
so
so
does<00:08:23.840> that<00:08:24.000> mean<00:08:24.160> we<00:08:24.319> have<00:08:24.400> nothing<00:08:24.720> to<00:08:24.800> worry
does that mean we have nothing to worry
does that mean we have nothing to worry
about
about
about
no
no
no
technology<00:08:28.160> is<00:08:28.240> not<00:08:28.479> destiny
technology is not destiny
technology is not destiny
productivity<00:08:30.479> is<00:08:30.800> at<00:08:30.879> an<00:08:31.120> all-time<00:08:31.599> high<00:08:32.240> but
productivity is at an all-time high but
productivity is at an all-time high but
fewer<00:08:32.959> people<00:08:33.599> now<00:08:33.839> have<00:08:34.080> jobs
fewer people now have jobs
fewer people now have jobs
we<00:08:35.360> have<00:08:35.599> created<00:08:35.919> more<00:08:36.159> wealth<00:08:36.399> in<00:08:36.560> the<00:08:36.640> past
we have created more wealth in the past
we have created more wealth in the past
decade<00:08:37.279> than<00:08:37.519> ever<00:08:38.159> but<00:08:38.320> for<00:08:38.479> a<00:08:38.560> majority<00:08:38.959> of
decade than ever but for a majority of
decade than ever but for a majority of
americans<00:08:40.000> their<00:08:40.240> income<00:08:40.880> has<00:08:41.200> fallen
americans their income has fallen
americans their income has fallen
this<00:08:42.959> is<00:08:43.200> the<00:08:43.440> great<00:08:43.680> decoupling<00:08:44.880> of
this is the great decoupling of
this is the great decoupling of
productivity<00:08:46.160> from<00:08:46.399> employment
productivity from employment
productivity from employment
of<00:08:48.080> wealth
of wealth
of wealth
from<00:08:49.360> work
from work
from work
you<00:08:50.640> know<00:08:50.720> it's<00:08:50.880> not<00:08:51.120> surprising<00:08:51.680> that
you know it's not surprising that
you know it's not surprising that
millions<00:08:52.399> of<00:08:52.560> people<00:08:53.360> have<00:08:53.600> become
millions of people have become
millions of people have become
disillusioned<00:08:54.640> by<00:08:54.800> the<00:08:54.959> great<00:08:55.200> decoupling
disillusioned by the great decoupling
disillusioned by the great decoupling
but<00:08:56.480> like<00:08:56.720> too<00:08:56.880> many<00:08:57.120> others<00:08:57.519> they
but like too many others they
but like too many others they
misunderstand<00:08:58.640> its<00:08:58.800> basic<00:08:59.200> causes
misunderstand its basic causes
misunderstand its basic causes
technology<00:09:01.920> is<00:09:02.080> racing<00:09:02.480> ahead
technology is racing ahead
technology is racing ahead
but<00:09:03.760> it's<00:09:04.000> leaving<00:09:04.320> more<00:09:04.560> and<00:09:04.720> more<00:09:04.959> people
but it's leaving more and more people
but it's leaving more and more people
behind
behind
behind
today<00:09:07.839> we<00:09:08.000> can<00:09:08.240> take<00:09:08.480> a<00:09:08.560> routine<00:09:09.279> job
today we can take a routine job
today we can take a routine job
codify<00:09:11.120> it<00:09:11.279> in<00:09:11.440> a<00:09:11.519> set<00:09:11.760> of<00:09:11.839> machine<00:09:12.240> readable
codify it in a set of machine readable
codify it in a set of machine readable
instructions<00:09:13.760> and<00:09:13.839> then<00:09:14.080> replicate<00:09:14.640> it<00:09:14.880> a
instructions and then replicate it a
instructions and then replicate it a
million<00:09:15.360> times
million times
million times
you<00:09:16.480> know<00:09:16.560> i<00:09:16.640> recently<00:09:17.040> overheard<00:09:17.440> a
you know i recently overheard a
you know i recently overheard a
conversation<00:09:18.399> that<00:09:18.640> epitomizes<00:09:19.360> these<00:09:19.519> new
conversation that epitomizes these new
conversation that epitomizes these new
economics<00:09:20.720> this<00:09:20.959> guy<00:09:21.279> says<00:09:22.080> nah<00:09:22.800> i<00:09:22.959> don't<00:09:23.120> use
economics this guy says nah i don't use
economics this guy says nah i don't use
h<00:09:23.600> r<00:09:23.680> block<00:09:24.000> anymore<00:09:24.800> turbo<00:09:25.200> tax<00:09:25.440> does
h r block anymore turbo tax does
h r block anymore turbo tax does
everything<00:09:25.920> that<00:09:26.080> my<00:09:26.240> tax<00:09:26.399> preparer<00:09:26.880> did<00:09:27.279> but
everything that my tax preparer did but
everything that my tax preparer did but
it's<00:09:28.000> faster<00:09:28.880> cheaper<00:09:29.680> and<00:09:29.920> more<00:09:30.160> accurate
it's faster cheaper and more accurate
it's faster cheaper and more accurate
how<00:09:32.080> can<00:09:32.320> a<00:09:32.399> skilled<00:09:32.800> worker<00:09:33.440> compete<00:09:33.839> with<00:09:34.080> a
how can a skilled worker compete with a
how can a skilled worker compete with a
39<00:09:34.880> piece<00:09:35.120> of<00:09:35.200> software
39 piece of software
39 piece of software
she<00:09:36.959> can't
she can't
she can't
today<00:09:39.200> millions<00:09:39.600> of<00:09:39.680> americans<00:09:40.160> do<00:09:40.399> have
today millions of americans do have
today millions of americans do have
faster<00:09:41.600> cheaper<00:09:42.080> more<00:09:42.320> accurate<00:09:42.720> tax
faster cheaper more accurate tax
faster cheaper more accurate tax
preparation<00:09:43.760> and<00:09:43.920> the<00:09:44.000> founders<00:09:44.399> of<00:09:44.480> intuit
preparation and the founders of intuit
preparation and the founders of intuit
have<00:09:45.360> done<00:09:45.600> very<00:09:45.839> well<00:09:46.080> for<00:09:46.240> themselves
have done very well for themselves
have done very well for themselves
but<00:09:47.839> 17<00:09:48.320> percent<00:09:48.640> of<00:09:48.800> tax<00:09:49.040> preparers<00:09:49.680> no
but 17 percent of tax preparers no
but 17 percent of tax preparers no
longer<00:09:50.160> have<00:09:50.399> jobs
longer have jobs
longer have jobs
that<00:09:52.160> is<00:09:52.320> a<00:09:52.399> microcosm<00:09:53.120> of<00:09:53.279> what's<00:09:53.519> happening
that is a microcosm of what's happening
that is a microcosm of what's happening
not<00:09:54.399> just<00:09:54.640> in<00:09:54.800> software<00:09:55.360> and<00:09:55.519> services<00:09:56.640> but<00:09:56.880> in
not just in software and services but in
not just in software and services but in
media<00:09:57.680> and<00:09:57.920> music<00:09:58.720> in<00:09:58.959> finance<00:09:59.440> and
media and music in finance and
media and music in finance and
manufacturing<00:10:00.560> in<00:10:00.720> retailing<00:10:01.600> and<00:10:01.839> trade<00:10:02.480> in
manufacturing in retailing and trade in
manufacturing in retailing and trade in
short
short
short
in<00:10:03.839> every<00:10:04.080> industry
in every industry
in every industry
people<00:10:06.959> are<00:10:07.200> racing<00:10:07.680> against<00:10:08.080> the<00:10:08.160> machine
people are racing against the machine
people are racing against the machine
and<00:10:09.680> many<00:10:09.920> of<00:10:10.000> them<00:10:10.480> are<00:10:10.640> losing<00:10:11.279> that<00:10:11.519> race
and many of them are losing that race
and many of them are losing that race
what<00:10:12.880> can<00:10:13.040> we<00:10:13.200> do
what can we do
what can we do
to<00:10:14.240> create<00:10:14.640> shared<00:10:15.040> prosperity
to create shared prosperity
to create shared prosperity
the<00:10:16.800> answer<00:10:17.120> is<00:10:17.200> not<00:10:17.360> to<00:10:17.440> try<00:10:17.600> to<00:10:17.680> slow<00:10:18.000> down
the answer is not to try to slow down
the answer is not to try to slow down
technology
technology
technology
instead<00:10:20.079> of<00:10:20.320> racing<00:10:20.640> against<00:10:21.040> the<00:10:21.120> machine<00:10:21.920> we
instead of racing against the machine we
instead of racing against the machine we
need<00:10:22.320> to<00:10:22.480> learn<00:10:22.640> to<00:10:22.880> race<00:10:23.680> with<00:10:24.240> the<00:10:24.399> machine
need to learn to race with the machine
need to learn to race with the machine
that<00:10:26.240> is<00:10:26.399> our<00:10:26.560> grand<00:10:26.880> challenge
that is our grand challenge
that is our grand challenge
the<00:10:29.040> new<00:10:29.279> machine<00:10:29.680> age
the new machine age
the new machine age
can<00:10:31.120> be<00:10:31.279> dated<00:10:31.519> to<00:10:31.680> a<00:10:31.839> day<00:10:32.560> 15<00:10:33.120> years<00:10:33.360> ago<00:10:33.920> when
can be dated to a day 15 years ago when
can be dated to a day 15 years ago when
gary<00:10:34.560> kasparov<00:10:35.519> the<00:10:35.680> world<00:10:36.000> chess<00:10:36.320> champion
gary kasparov the world chess champion
gary kasparov the world chess champion
played<00:10:37.600> deep<00:10:37.839> blue
played deep blue
played deep blue
a<00:10:39.040> super<00:10:39.360> computer
a super computer
a super computer
the<00:10:40.959> machine<00:10:41.440> won<00:10:41.760> that<00:10:42.000> day<00:10:42.560> and<00:10:42.800> today<00:10:43.279> a
the machine won that day and today a
the machine won that day and today a
chess<00:10:43.760> program<00:10:44.240> running<00:10:44.560> on<00:10:44.720> a<00:10:44.959> cell<00:10:45.200> phone
chess program running on a cell phone
chess program running on a cell phone
can<00:10:45.920> beat<00:10:46.160> a<00:10:46.240> human<00:10:46.560> grandmaster
can beat a human grandmaster
can beat a human grandmaster
it<00:10:48.399> got<00:10:48.560> so<00:10:48.800> bad
it got so bad
it got so bad
that
that
that
when<00:10:50.640> he<00:10:50.800> was<00:10:51.040> asked<00:10:51.360> what<00:10:51.600> strategy<00:10:52.240> he<00:10:52.320> would
when he was asked what strategy he would
when he was asked what strategy he would
use<00:10:52.800> against<00:10:53.120> a<00:10:53.200> computer<00:10:54.240> jan<00:10:54.640> donner<00:10:55.279> the
use against a computer jan donner the
use against a computer jan donner the
dutch<00:10:55.760> grand<00:10:56.079> master<00:10:56.959> replied
dutch grand master replied
dutch grand master replied
i'd<00:10:58.560> bring<00:10:58.720> a<00:10:58.880> hammer
but<00:11:03.760> today
but today
but today
a<00:11:05.040> computer<00:11:05.519> is<00:11:05.680> no<00:11:05.839> longer<00:11:06.160> the<00:11:06.240> world<00:11:06.480> chess
a computer is no longer the world chess
a computer is no longer the world chess
champion
champion
champion
neither<00:11:08.880> is<00:11:09.279> a<00:11:09.440> human
neither is a human
neither is a human
because<00:11:11.360> casper<00:11:11.839> have<00:11:12.000> organized<00:11:12.480> a
because casper have organized a
because casper have organized a
freestyle<00:11:13.279> tournament
freestyle tournament
freestyle tournament
where<00:11:14.720> teams<00:11:15.040> of<00:11:15.200> humans<00:11:15.600> and<00:11:15.680> computers
where teams of humans and computers
where teams of humans and computers
could<00:11:16.640> work<00:11:16.880> together
could work together
could work together
and<00:11:18.399> the<00:11:18.480> winning<00:11:18.880> team
and the winning team
and the winning team
had<00:11:20.000> no<00:11:20.160> grand<00:11:20.480> master
had no grand master
had no grand master
and<00:11:21.760> it<00:11:21.920> had<00:11:22.240> no<00:11:22.640> super<00:11:22.959> computer<00:11:23.680> what<00:11:23.839> they
and it had no super computer what they
and it had no super computer what they
had
had
had
was<00:11:26.000> better
was better
was better
teamwork<00:11:28.160> and<00:11:28.399> they<00:11:28.720> showed
teamwork and they showed
teamwork and they showed
that<00:11:30.560> a<00:11:30.800> team<00:11:31.440> of<00:11:31.680> humans<00:11:32.160> and<00:11:32.320> computers
that a team of humans and computers
that a team of humans and computers
working<00:11:33.440> together
working together
working together
could<00:11:34.800> beat<00:11:35.120> any<00:11:35.360> computer
could beat any computer
could beat any computer
or<00:11:37.120> any<00:11:37.360> human<00:11:38.000> working<00:11:38.480> alone
or any human working alone
or any human working alone
racing<00:11:39.920> with<00:11:40.160> the<00:11:40.320> machine
racing with the machine
racing with the machine
beats<00:11:42.000> racing<00:11:42.399> against<00:11:42.800> the<00:11:42.880> machine
beats racing against the machine
beats racing against the machine
technology<00:11:44.399> is<00:11:44.560> not<00:11:44.720> destiny
technology is not destiny
technology is not destiny
we<00:11:46.399> shape<00:11:46.720> our<00:11:46.880> destiny
we shape our destiny
we shape our destiny
thank<00:11:48.480> you
[Music]
you
Erik Brynjolfsson, Robert Gordon, economic, growth, economics, economy, computers, machines, technology, future, TED, TED-Ed, TED, Ed, TEDEducation
