What if every satellite suddenly disappeared? - Moriba Jah
One day, without warning
or apparent cause,
all of humanity’s artificial satellites
suddenly disappear.
The first to understand the situation
are a handful of government
and commercial operators.
But well before they have time
to process what’s happened,
millions sitting on their couches become
aware that something is amiss.
TV that’s broadcast from or routed
through satellites dominate the market
for international programming
as well as some local channels,
so the disappearance causes immediate
disruptions, worldwide.
The next people affected are those
traveling by air, sea, or land,
as global positioning, navigation
and timing services, have entirely ceased.
Pilots, captains, and drivers
have to determine their locations
using analog instruments and maps.
Aircraft, ships, and ground vehicles get
stopped, grounded, or returned to port.
In the meantime, air traffic controllers
have a difficult task on their hands
to prevent plane crashes.
Within hours, most of the planet’s traffic
grinds to a halt.
The effects aren’t limited
to entertainment and travel.
All sorts of machines, from heating
and cooling systems to assembly lines,
rely on super-accurate
satellite-based timing systems,
and many have little-to-no backup options.
Stoplights and other traffic control
systems stop synchronizing,
so police and good Samaritans
step in to direct the remaining cars
and prevent as many accidents as possible.
The most catastrophic impact
is yet to come.
Because in the next few hours,
the world economy shuts down.
Satellite-based timestamps
play a critical part in everything
from credit card readers
and stock exchanges
to the systems that keep track
of transactions.
People are unable to withdraw cash
or make electronic payments.
Logistics and supply chains for crucial
goods like food and medicine fragment,
leaving people to survive on whatever
is locally available.
Most countries declare
a state of emergency
and call on the military to restore order.
That may take quite a while.
Most navigation and communication systems
are no longer operational,
so military chains of command
may be in disarray.
Many troops, including those actively
deployed, are left to their own devices.
Commanders of nuclear submarines
and missile control centers
wonder if the disruption is the result
of a hostile attack.
What sorts of decisions do they make
with partial information?
Even in the best-case scenario,
our civilization gets set back by decades
at the very least.
That’s because, despite
being a relatively new phenomenon,
satellites have quickly replaced more
traditional long range technologies.
The combination of global positioning
and internet
has allowed for near-instant signals
that can be synchronized worldwide.
Many systems we use daily
have been built upon this foundation.
Going back to the communication systems
of the mid-20th century
would not be a simple matter.
In many cases, they’d have to be rebuilt
from the ground up.
While the sudden disappearance
in this thought experiment is unlikely,
there are two very real scenarios
that could lead to the same results.
The first is a solar flare so strong
it fries satellite circuitry–
as well as many other devices
and power grids around the world.
And the second is an orbital chain
reaction of collisions.
With about 7,500 metric tons
of defunct spacecraft, spent boosters,
and discarded equipment
orbiting our planet
at relative speeds
up to 56,000 kilometers per hour,
even small objects can be
highly destructive.
A single collision in space could create
thousands of new pieces of debris,
leading to a chain reaction.
Space is huge, but many of the thousands
of satellites currently in orbit
share the same orbital highways
for their specific purposes.
And since most objects sent to space
are not designed with disposal in mind,
these highways only become
more congested over time.
The good news is, we can protect ourselves
by studying our solar system,
creating backup options
for our satellite networks,
and cooperating to avoid
an orbital tragedy of the commons.
The space kilometers above our heads
is like our forests,
the ocean’s biodiversity and clean air:
If we don't treat it as a finite resource,
we may wake up one day to find
we no longer have it at all.
