Navigating Our Global Future - Ian Goldin
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the<00:00:16.410> future<00:00:16.830> as<00:00:16.980> we<00:00:17.130> know<00:00:17.340> is<00:00:17.610> very
the future as we know is very
the future as we know is very
unpredictable<00:00:18.390> the<00:00:19.230> best<00:00:19.500> minds<00:00:20.099> in<00:00:20.250> the<00:00:20.460> best
unpredictable the best minds in the best
unpredictable the best minds in the best
institutions<00:00:21.509> generally<00:00:22.020> get<00:00:22.380> it<00:00:22.500> wrong<00:00:22.710> this
institutions generally get it wrong this
institutions generally get it wrong this
is<00:00:23.550> in<00:00:23.700> technology<00:00:24.080> this<00:00:25.080> is<00:00:25.260> in<00:00:25.410> the<00:00:25.800> area<00:00:26.220> of
is in technology this is in the area of
is in technology this is in the area of
politics<00:00:26.849> where<00:00:27.480> pundits<00:00:27.929> the<00:00:28.230> CIA<00:00:28.590> mi6
politics where pundits the CIA mi6
politics where pundits the CIA mi6
always<00:00:30.029> get<00:00:30.210> it<00:00:30.330> wrong<00:00:30.539> and<00:00:30.750> it's<00:00:31.230> clearly<00:00:31.529> in
always get it wrong and it's clearly in
always get it wrong and it's clearly in
the<00:00:31.890> area<00:00:32.519> of<00:00:32.610> finance<00:00:33.120> where<00:00:33.300> the
the area of finance where the
the area of finance where the
institutions<00:00:33.930> established<00:00:34.110> to<00:00:34.680> think<00:00:34.890> about
institutions established to think about
institutions established to think about
the<00:00:35.309> future<00:00:35.519> the<00:00:35.820> IMF<00:00:36.239> the<00:00:36.510> BIS<00:00:37.050> the<00:00:37.470> financial
the future the IMF the BIS the financial
the future the IMF the BIS the financial
stability<00:00:38.040> forum<00:00:38.610> couldn't<00:00:39.239> see<00:00:39.360> what<00:00:39.480> was
stability forum couldn't see what was
stability forum couldn't see what was
coming<00:00:39.660> over<00:00:40.110> 20,000<00:00:40.890> economists<00:00:41.370> whose<00:00:41.640> job
coming over 20,000 economists whose job
coming over 20,000 economists whose job
it<00:00:41.970> is<00:00:42.059> competitive<00:00:42.809> entry<00:00:43.350> to<00:00:43.470> get<00:00:43.589> there
it is competitive entry to get there
it is competitive entry to get there
couldn't<00:00:44.430> see<00:00:44.549> what<00:00:44.670> was<00:00:44.699> happening
couldn't see what was happening
couldn't see what was happening
globalization<00:00:46.320> is<00:00:46.409> getting<00:00:46.680> more<00:00:46.860> complex
globalization is getting more complex
globalization is getting more complex
and<00:00:47.670> this<00:00:48.030> change<00:00:48.299> is<00:00:48.420> getting<00:00:48.690> more<00:00:48.809> rapid
and this change is getting more rapid
and this change is getting more rapid
the<00:00:49.379> future<00:00:49.680> will<00:00:49.799> be<00:00:49.890> more<00:00:50.070> unpredictable
the future will be more unpredictable
the future will be more unpredictable
urbanization<00:00:52.610> integration<00:00:53.610> coming<00:00:54.089> together
urbanization integration coming together
urbanization integration coming together
leads<00:00:55.049> to<00:00:55.290> new<00:00:55.440> Renaissance<00:00:56.040> it<00:00:56.369> did<00:00:56.670> this<00:00:56.820> a
leads to new Renaissance it did this a
leads to new Renaissance it did this a
thousand<00:00:57.390> years<00:00:57.600> ago<00:00:57.750> the<00:00:58.290> last<00:00:58.530> 40<00:00:59.010> years
thousand years ago the last 40 years
thousand years ago the last 40 years
have<00:00:59.519> been<00:00:59.610> extraordinary<00:01:00.239> times<00:01:00.869> life
have been extraordinary times life
have been extraordinary times life
expectancy<00:01:02.460> has<00:01:02.489> gone<00:01:02.699> up<00:01:02.760> by<00:01:02.970> about<00:01:03.059> 25<00:01:03.780> years
expectancy has gone up by about 25 years
expectancy has gone up by about 25 years
it<00:01:04.619> took<00:01:04.769> from<00:01:04.949> the<00:01:05.070> Stone<00:01:05.309> Age<00:01:05.519> to<00:01:05.580> achieve
it took from the Stone Age to achieve
it took from the Stone Age to achieve
that<00:01:06.530> income<00:01:07.530> has<00:01:07.710> gone<00:01:07.890> up<00:01:07.950> for<00:01:08.250> majority<00:01:08.610> of
that income has gone up for majority of
that income has gone up for majority of
the<00:01:08.760> world's<00:01:09.000> population<00:01:09.229> despite<00:01:10.229> the
the world's population despite the
the world's population despite the
population<00:01:11.430> going<00:01:11.700> up<00:01:11.820> by<00:01:11.970> about<00:01:12.150> two<00:01:12.390> billion
population going up by about two billion
population going up by about two billion
people<00:01:12.929> over<00:01:13.259> this<00:01:13.380> period<00:01:13.679> and<00:01:14.009> illiteracy
people over this period and illiteracy
people over this period and illiteracy
has<00:01:15.060> gone<00:01:15.299> down<00:01:15.570> from<00:01:16.049> 1/2<00:01:16.380> to<00:01:16.619> about<00:01:16.740> a
has gone down from 1/2 to about a
has gone down from 1/2 to about a
quarter<00:01:16.950> the<00:01:17.070> people<00:01:17.369> on<00:01:17.460> earth<00:01:17.490> a<00:01:17.850> huge
quarter the people on earth a huge
quarter the people on earth a huge
opportunity<00:01:18.810> unleashing<00:01:19.799> of<00:01:19.920> new<00:01:20.039> potential
opportunity unleashing of new potential
opportunity unleashing of new potential
for<00:01:21.000> innovation<00:01:21.600> for<00:01:21.750> development<00:01:22.049> but
for innovation for development but
for innovation for development but
there's<00:01:23.189> an<00:01:23.280> underbelly<00:01:23.749> there<00:01:24.749> too<00:01:25.049> Achilles
there's an underbelly there too Achilles
there's an underbelly there too Achilles
heels<00:01:25.859> of<00:01:26.070> globalization
heels of globalization
heels of globalization
there's<00:01:27.689> the<00:01:27.869> killer's<00:01:28.170> heel<00:01:28.320> of<00:01:28.439> growing
there's the killer's heel of growing
there's the killer's heel of growing
inequality<00:01:29.490> those<00:01:29.820> that<00:01:30.030> are<00:01:30.119> left<00:01:30.329> out<00:01:30.600> those
inequality those that are left out those
inequality those that are left out those
that<00:01:31.259> feel<00:01:31.469> angry<00:01:31.890> those<00:01:32.340> that<00:01:32.490> are<00:01:32.640> not
that feel angry those that are not
that feel angry those that are not
participating<00:01:33.770> globalization<00:01:34.770> has<00:01:34.890> not<00:01:35.070> been
participating globalization has not been
participating globalization has not been
inclusive<00:01:35.640> the<00:01:36.359> second<00:01:36.810> Achilles<00:01:37.200> heel<00:01:37.439> is
inclusive the second Achilles heel is
inclusive the second Achilles heel is
complexity<00:01:38.729> a<00:01:38.909> growing<00:01:40.789> fragility<00:01:41.789> a<00:01:41.969> growing
complexity a growing fragility a growing
complexity a growing fragility a growing
brittleness<00:01:42.899> what<00:01:43.530> happens<00:01:43.890> in<00:01:44.039> one<00:01:44.159> place
brittleness what happens in one place
brittleness what happens in one place
very<00:01:44.789> quickly<00:01:45.210> affects<00:01:45.719> everything<00:01:46.079> else
very quickly affects everything else
very quickly affects everything else
this<00:01:46.770> is<00:01:46.979> systemic<00:01:47.399> risk<00:01:47.819> systemic<00:01:48.659> shock
this is systemic risk systemic shock
this is systemic risk systemic shock
we've<00:01:49.350> seen<00:01:49.560> it<00:01:49.649> in<00:01:49.740> the<00:01:49.799> financial<00:01:50.249> crisis
we've seen it in the financial crisis
we've seen it in the financial crisis
we've<00:01:51.119> seen<00:01:51.389> it<00:01:51.450> in<00:01:51.539> the<00:01:51.630> pandemic<00:01:51.990> flu<00:01:52.259> it
we've seen it in the pandemic flu it
we've seen it in the pandemic flu it
will<00:01:52.799> become<00:01:53.130> violent<00:01:53.819> and<00:01:54.030> it's<00:01:54.659> something
will become violent and it's something
will become violent and it's something
we<00:01:55.109> have<00:01:55.139> to<00:01:55.380> build<00:01:55.590> resilience<00:01:56.009> again<00:01:56.310> a<00:01:56.490> lot
we have to build resilience again a lot
we have to build resilience again a lot
of<00:01:57.509> this<00:01:57.659> is<00:01:57.840> driven<00:01:57.990> by<00:01:58.200> what's<00:01:58.560> happening<00:01:58.920> on
of this is driven by what's happening on
of this is driven by what's happening on
technology<00:01:59.729> there's<00:02:00.179> been<00:02:00.359> huge<00:02:00.659> leaps<00:02:01.020> there
technology there's been huge leaps there
technology there's been huge leaps there
will<00:02:01.350> be<00:02:01.380> a<00:02:01.469> million<00:02:01.740> fold<00:02:02.280> improvement<00:02:02.490> in
will be a million fold improvement in
will be a million fold improvement in
what<00:02:03.359> you<00:02:03.479> can<00:02:03.569> get<00:02:03.780> for<00:02:03.960> the<00:02:04.049> same<00:02:04.229> price<00:02:04.560> in
what you can get for the same price in
what you can get for the same price in
computing<00:02:05.579> by<00:02:05.729> 2030<00:02:06.389> that's<00:02:07.049> what<00:02:07.289> the
computing by 2030 that's what the
computing by 2030 that's what the
experience<00:02:07.799> of<00:02:07.829> the<00:02:07.920> last<00:02:08.100> 20<00:02:08.429> years<00:02:08.459> has<00:02:08.789> been
experience of the last 20 years has been
experience of the last 20 years has been
it<00:02:09.209> will<00:02:09.420> continue<00:02:09.959> our<00:02:10.550> computers<00:02:11.550> our
it will continue our computers our
it will continue our computers our
systems<00:02:12.150> will<00:02:12.300> be<00:02:12.390> as<00:02:12.540> primitive<00:02:13.530> as<00:02:13.680> the
systems will be as primitive as the
systems will be as primitive as the
Apollo's<00:02:14.400> are<00:02:14.700> for<00:02:15.180> today<00:02:15.450> our<00:02:15.750> mobile<00:02:16.200> phones
Apollo's are for today our mobile phones
Apollo's are for today our mobile phones
are<00:02:16.710> more<00:02:16.860> powerful<00:02:17.040> than<00:02:17.280> the<00:02:17.370> total<00:02:17.640> Apollo
are more powerful than the total Apollo
are more powerful than the total Apollo
space<00:02:18.270> engine<00:02:18.690> our<00:02:18.930> mobile<00:02:19.410> phones<00:02:19.650> are<00:02:19.830> more
space engine our mobile phones are more
space engine our mobile phones are more
powerful<00:02:20.160> that's<00:02:20.730> one<00:02:20.850> the<00:02:20.940> strongest
powerful that's one the strongest
powerful that's one the strongest
peters<00:02:21.900> of<00:02:21.930> 20<00:02:22.290> years<00:02:22.499> ago<00:02:22.620> so<00:02:23.310> what<00:02:23.609> will<00:02:23.849> this
peters of 20 years ago so what will this
peters of 20 years ago so what will this
do<00:02:24.239> it<00:02:24.510> will<00:02:24.749> create<00:02:24.959> huge<00:02:25.530> opportunities<00:02:26.310> in
do it will create huge opportunities in
do it will create huge opportunities in
technology<00:02:27.230> miniaturization<00:02:28.230> as<00:02:28.590> well<00:02:28.829> there
technology miniaturization as well there
technology miniaturization as well there
will<00:02:29.370> be<00:02:29.519> invisible<00:02:29.819> capacity<00:02:30.780> invisible
will be invisible capacity invisible
will be invisible capacity invisible
capacity<00:02:31.709> in<00:02:31.769> our<00:02:31.859> bodies<00:02:32.189> in<00:02:32.730> our<00:02:32.879> brains<00:02:33.150> and
capacity in our bodies in our brains and
capacity in our bodies in our brains and
in<00:02:33.900> the<00:02:34.019> air<00:02:34.230> this<00:02:34.560> is<00:02:34.680> a<00:02:34.739> dust<00:02:34.980> mite<00:02:35.189> on<00:02:35.489> a<00:02:35.549> nano
in the air this is a dust mite on a nano
in the air this is a dust mite on a nano
replica<00:02:36.569> this<00:02:37.409> sort<00:02:37.680> of<00:02:37.739> ability<00:02:38.609> to<00:02:39.030> do
replica this sort of ability to do
replica this sort of ability to do
everything<00:02:39.359> in<00:02:39.900> new<00:02:40.079> ways<00:02:40.290> unleashes
everything in new ways unleashes
everything in new ways unleashes
potential<00:02:41.639> not<00:02:41.790> least<00:02:42.000> in<00:02:42.209> the<00:02:42.299> area<00:02:42.450> of
potential not least in the area of
potential not least in the area of
medicine<00:02:43.530> this<00:02:43.980> is<00:02:44.159> a<00:02:44.310> stem<00:02:44.760> cell<00:02:45.030> that<00:02:45.120> we've
medicine this is a stem cell that we've
medicine this is a stem cell that we've
developed<00:02:45.420> here<00:02:45.719> in<00:02:45.959> Oxford<00:02:46.230> from<00:02:46.739> a
developed here in Oxford from a
developed here in Oxford from a
embryonic<00:02:47.519> stem<00:02:47.909> cell<00:02:48.150> we<00:02:48.450> can<00:02:48.599> develop<00:02:48.780> any
embryonic stem cell we can develop any
embryonic stem cell we can develop any
part<00:02:49.439> of<00:02:49.560> the<00:02:49.709> body<00:02:49.859> increasingly<00:02:50.819> over<00:02:51.209> time
part of the body increasingly over time
part of the body increasingly over time
this<00:02:51.569> will<00:02:51.689> be<00:02:51.749> possible<00:02:52.139> from<00:02:52.260> our<00:02:52.379> own<00:02:52.560> skin
this will be possible from our own skin
this will be possible from our own skin
able<00:02:53.549> to<00:02:53.669> replicate<00:02:53.879> parts<00:02:54.540> of<00:02:54.629> the<00:02:54.750> body
able to replicate parts of the body
able to replicate parts of the body
fantastic<00:02:56.129> potential<00:02:56.489> for<00:02:56.730> regenerative
fantastic potential for regenerative
fantastic potential for regenerative
medicine<00:02:57.180> I<00:02:57.689> don't<00:02:57.870> think<00:02:58.409> there'll<00:02:58.620> be<00:02:58.650> a
medicine I don't think there'll be a
medicine I don't think there'll be a
Special<00:02:59.609> Olympics<00:02:59.669> long<00:03:00.269> after<00:03:00.629> 2030<00:03:01.230> because
Special Olympics long after 2030 because
Special Olympics long after 2030 because
of<00:03:01.799> this<00:03:01.859> capacity<00:03:02.430> to<00:03:02.730> regenerate<00:03:02.939> parts<00:03:03.389> of
of this capacity to regenerate parts of
of this capacity to regenerate parts of
the<00:03:03.900> body<00:03:04.079> but<00:03:04.469> the<00:03:04.769> question<00:03:05.099> is<00:03:05.219> who<00:03:05.549> will
the body but the question is who will
the body but the question is who will
have<00:03:05.939> it<00:03:06.060> the<00:03:06.810> other<00:03:06.959> major<00:03:07.349> development<00:03:08.069> is
have it the other major development is
have it the other major development is
going<00:03:08.519> to<00:03:08.639> be<00:03:08.760> in<00:03:08.849> the<00:03:08.939> area<00:03:09.090> of<00:03:09.239> what<00:03:09.629> can
going to be in the area of what can
going to be in the area of what can
happen<00:03:09.870> on<00:03:10.199> genetics<00:03:10.829> the<00:03:11.400> capacity<00:03:12.120> to
happen on genetics the capacity to
happen on genetics the capacity to
create<00:03:12.859> as<00:03:13.859> this<00:03:14.159> mouse<00:03:14.400> has<00:03:14.730> been
create as this mouse has been
create as this mouse has been
genetically<00:03:15.510> modified<00:03:15.719> something<00:03:16.469> which
genetically modified something which
genetically modified something which
goes<00:03:16.739> three<00:03:16.980> times<00:03:17.219> faster<00:03:17.699> lasts<00:03:18.389> for<00:03:18.659> 3
goes three times faster lasts for 3
goes three times faster lasts for 3
times<00:03:19.049> long<00:03:19.319> and<00:03:19.530> we<00:03:19.709> could<00:03:19.859> produce<00:03:20.010> as<00:03:20.400> this
times long and we could produce as this
times long and we could produce as this
mouse<00:03:20.730> can<00:03:21.030> to<00:03:21.209> the<00:03:21.299> age<00:03:21.449> of<00:03:21.719> our<00:03:22.169> equivalent
mouse can to the age of our equivalent
mouse can to the age of our equivalent
of<00:03:22.739> 80<00:03:22.949> years<00:03:23.689> with<00:03:24.689> using<00:03:25.379> about<00:03:25.799> the<00:03:25.979> same
of 80 years with using about the same
of 80 years with using about the same
amount<00:03:26.280> of<00:03:26.639> food<00:03:26.879> but<00:03:27.150> will<00:03:27.569> this<00:03:27.689> only<00:03:27.900> be
amount of food but will this only be
amount of food but will this only be
available<00:03:28.379> for<00:03:28.829> the<00:03:28.919> super<00:03:29.280> rich<00:03:29.459> for<00:03:29.759> those
available for the super rich for those
available for the super rich for those
that<00:03:30.060> can<00:03:30.239> afford<00:03:30.479> it<00:03:30.629> are<00:03:30.780> we<00:03:30.900> heading<00:03:31.169> for
that can afford it are we heading for
that can afford it are we heading for
new<00:03:31.439> eugenics<00:03:31.769> we'll<00:03:32.579> only<00:03:33.000> those<00:03:33.269> that<00:03:34.109> are
new eugenics we'll only those that are
new eugenics we'll only those that are
able<00:03:34.409> to<00:03:34.799> afford<00:03:35.609> it<00:03:35.819> able<00:03:36.389> to<00:03:36.509> be<00:03:36.629> the<00:03:36.780> super
able to afford it able to be the super
able to afford it able to be the super
race<00:03:37.290> of<00:03:37.560> the<00:03:37.799> future<00:03:38.479> so<00:03:39.479> the<00:03:40.319> big<00:03:40.530> question
race of the future so the big question
race of the future so the big question
for<00:03:41.069> us<00:03:41.280> is<00:03:41.609> how<00:03:41.669> do<00:03:41.939> we<00:03:42.000> manage<00:03:42.239> this
for us is how do we manage this
for us is how do we manage this
technological<00:03:42.900> change<00:03:43.500> how<00:03:43.650> do<00:03:43.709> we<00:03:43.889> ensure
technological change how do we ensure
technological change how do we ensure
that<00:03:44.310> it<00:03:44.639> creates<00:03:44.970> a<00:03:45.180> more<00:03:45.629> inclusive
that it creates a more inclusive
that it creates a more inclusive
technology<00:03:47.310> a<00:03:47.549> technology<00:03:48.349> which<00:03:49.349> means<00:03:49.859> that
technology a technology which means that
technology a technology which means that
not<00:03:50.729> only<00:03:51.060> as<00:03:51.150> we<00:03:51.269> grow<00:03:51.419> older<00:03:51.870> but<00:03:52.049> we<00:03:52.379> can
not only as we grow older but we can
not only as we grow older but we can
also<00:03:52.680> grow<00:03:53.069> wiser<00:03:53.370> and<00:03:53.729> if<00:03:53.970> we<00:03:54.030> able<00:03:54.209> support
also grow wiser and if we able support
also grow wiser and if we able support
the<00:03:54.959> populations<00:03:55.620> of<00:03:55.799> the<00:03:55.889> future<00:03:56.280> one<00:03:56.849> of<00:03:56.879> the
the populations of the future one of the
the populations of the future one of the
most<00:03:57.209> dramatic<00:03:57.530> manifestations<00:03:58.530> of<00:03:58.709> these
most dramatic manifestations of these
most dramatic manifestations of these
improvements<00:03:59.250> will<00:03:59.549> be<00:03:59.879> moving<00:04:00.389> from
improvements will be moving from
improvements will be moving from
population<00:04:01.259> pyramids<00:04:01.769> to<00:04:02.220> what<00:04:02.400> we<00:04:02.549> might
population pyramids to what we might
population pyramids to what we might
term<00:04:03.000> population<00:04:03.840> coffins<00:04:04.590> there's<00:04:05.129> unlikely
term population coffins there's unlikely
term population coffins there's unlikely
to<00:04:05.969> be<00:04:06.060> a<00:04:06.090> pension<00:04:06.599> or<00:04:06.840> retirement<00:04:06.930> age<00:04:07.680> in
to be a pension or retirement age in
to be a pension or retirement age in
2030<00:04:08.540> these<00:04:09.540> will<00:04:09.750> be<00:04:09.870> redundant<00:04:10.409> concepts
2030 these will be redundant concepts
2030 these will be redundant concepts
and<00:04:11.009> this<00:04:11.069> isn't<00:04:11.370> only<00:04:11.549> something<00:04:11.909> of<00:04:12.209> the
and this isn't only something of the
and this isn't only something of the
West<00:04:12.540> the<00:04:12.989> most<00:04:13.199> dramatic<00:04:13.680> changes<00:04:14.129> will<00:04:14.519> be
West the most dramatic changes will be
West the most dramatic changes will be
the<00:04:14.790> skyscraper<00:04:15.540> type<00:04:15.719> of<00:04:15.930> new<00:04:16.409> pyramids<00:04:16.889> that
the skyscraper type of new pyramids that
the skyscraper type of new pyramids that
will<00:04:17.549> take<00:04:17.969> place<00:04:18.180> in<00:04:18.419> China<00:04:18.719> and<00:04:18.989> in<00:04:19.079> many
will take place in China and in many
will take place in China and in many
other<00:04:19.469> countries
other countries
other countries
so<00:04:20.430> forget<00:04:20.759> about<00:04:20.820> retirements<00:04:21.719> if<00:04:21.840> you're
so forget about retirements if you're
so forget about retirements if you're
young<00:04:22.320> forget<00:04:22.560> about<00:04:22.710> pensions<00:04:23.130> think<00:04:23.310> about
young forget about pensions think about
young forget about pensions think about
life<00:04:23.759> and<00:04:24.060> where<00:04:24.900> it's<00:04:25.020> going<00:04:25.139> to<00:04:25.229> be<00:04:25.289> going<00:04:25.440> of
life and where it's going to be going of
life and where it's going to be going of
course<00:04:25.860> migration<00:04:26.009> will<00:04:26.550> become<00:04:26.820> even<00:04:27.180> more
course migration will become even more
course migration will become even more
important<00:04:27.840> the<00:04:28.259> war<00:04:28.469> on<00:04:28.650> talent<00:04:29.070> the<00:04:29.580> need<00:04:29.880> to
important the war on talent the need to
important the war on talent the need to
attract<00:04:30.389> people<00:04:30.719> at<00:04:30.840> all<00:04:31.050> skill<00:04:31.440> ranges<00:04:31.949> to
attract people at all skill ranges to
attract people at all skill ranges to
push<00:04:32.490> us<00:04:32.639> around<00:04:32.789> in<00:04:33.090> our<00:04:33.210> wheelchairs<00:04:33.719> but
push us around in our wheelchairs but
push us around in our wheelchairs but
also<00:04:34.380> to
also to
also to
drive<00:04:35.310> our<00:04:35.520> economies<00:04:36.030> our<00:04:36.180> innovation<00:04:36.810> will
drive our economies our innovation will
drive our economies our innovation will
be<00:04:36.990> vital<00:04:37.380> the<00:04:37.950> employment<00:04:38.670> in<00:04:38.850> the<00:04:39.240> rich
be vital the employment in the rich
be vital the employment in the rich
countries<00:04:39.630> will<00:04:39.990> go<00:04:40.080> down<00:04:40.200> for<00:04:40.230> about<00:04:40.380> 800<00:04:41.040> to
countries will go down for about 800 to
countries will go down for about 800 to
700<00:04:41.700> million<00:04:41.880> of<00:04:42.090> these<00:04:42.300> people<00:04:42.690> this<00:04:43.230> would
700 million of these people this would
700 million of these people this would
imply<00:04:43.770> a<00:04:43.950> massive<00:04:44.460> leap<00:04:44.730> in<00:04:44.940> migration<00:04:45.570> so<00:04:45.720> the
imply a massive leap in migration so the
imply a massive leap in migration so the
concerns<00:04:46.260> the<00:04:46.470> xenophobic<00:04:46.980> concerns<00:04:47.460> of
concerns the xenophobic concerns of
concerns the xenophobic concerns of
today<00:04:47.940> or<00:04:48.360> migration<00:04:48.810> will<00:04:49.260> be<00:04:49.380> turned<00:04:49.620> on
today or migration will be turned on
today or migration will be turned on
their<00:04:49.950> head<00:04:49.980> as<00:04:50.310> we<00:04:50.610> search<00:04:50.880> for<00:04:50.910> people<00:04:51.330> to
their head as we search for people to
their head as we search for people to
help<00:04:51.990> us<00:04:52.170> sort<00:04:52.740> out<00:04:52.860> our<00:04:53.280> pensions<00:04:53.850> and<00:04:54.030> our
help us sort out our pensions and our
help us sort out our pensions and our
economies<00:04:54.570> in<00:04:54.690> the<00:04:54.780> future<00:04:55.140> and<00:04:55.380> then<00:04:55.740> the
economies in the future and then the
economies in the future and then the
systemic<00:04:56.730> risks<00:04:57.150> we<00:04:57.600> understand<00:04:58.170> that<00:04:58.680> these
systemic risks we understand that these
systemic risks we understand that these
will<00:04:59.070> become<00:04:59.190> much<00:04:59.880> more<00:05:00.120> virulent
will become much more virulent
will become much more virulent
that<00:05:01.050> what<00:05:01.530> we<00:05:01.650> see<00:05:01.890> today<00:05:02.070> is<00:05:02.460> this
that what we see today is this
that what we see today is this
interweaving<00:05:03.420> of<00:05:03.780> societies<00:05:04.650> of<00:05:04.890> systems
interweaving of societies of systems
interweaving of societies of systems
fastened<00:05:06.480> by<00:05:06.570> technologies<00:05:07.260> in<00:05:07.440> hastened<00:05:07.860> by
fastened by technologies in hastened by
fastened by technologies in hastened by
just-in-time<00:05:09.020> management<00:05:10.020> systems<00:05:10.410> small
just-in-time management systems small
just-in-time management systems small
levels<00:05:11.340> of<00:05:11.460> stock<00:05:11.730> push<00:05:12.270> resilience<00:05:13.170> into
levels of stock push resilience into
levels of stock push resilience into
other<00:05:13.920> people's<00:05:14.340> responsibilities<00:05:15.330> the
other people's responsibilities the
other people's responsibilities the
collapse<00:05:16.260> in<00:05:16.440> biodiversity<00:05:16.770> climate<00:05:17.550> change
collapse in biodiversity climate change
collapse in biodiversity climate change
pandemics<00:05:19.050> financial<00:05:19.830> crises<00:05:20.070> these<00:05:20.670> will<00:05:20.910> be
pandemics financial crises these will be
pandemics financial crises these will be
the<00:05:21.180> currency<00:05:22.110> that<00:05:22.290> we<00:05:22.590> will<00:05:22.710> think<00:05:22.950> about
the currency that we will think about
the currency that we will think about
and<00:05:23.400> so<00:05:23.550> a<00:05:23.580> new<00:05:23.760> awareness<00:05:23.970> will<00:05:24.360> have<00:05:24.510> to
and so a new awareness will have to
and so a new awareness will have to
arise<00:05:24.900> of<00:05:25.170> how<00:05:25.530> we<00:05:25.590> deal<00:05:25.890> with<00:05:25.920> these<00:05:26.280> how<00:05:26.790> we
arise of how we deal with these how we
arise of how we deal with these how we
mobilize<00:05:27.870> ourselves<00:05:28.140> in<00:05:28.980> a<00:05:29.070> new<00:05:29.610> way<00:05:29.790> and<00:05:30.030> come
mobilize ourselves in a new way and come
mobilize ourselves in a new way and come
together<00:05:30.450> as<00:05:30.810> a<00:05:30.840> community<00:05:31.050> to<00:05:31.590> manage
together as a community to manage
together as a community to manage
systemic<00:05:32.700> risk<00:05:32.940> it's<00:05:33.600> going<00:05:33.930> to<00:05:34.140> require
systemic risk it's going to require
systemic risk it's going to require
innovation<00:05:35.490> it's<00:05:35.700> going<00:05:36.000> to<00:05:36.120> require<00:05:36.390> an
innovation it's going to require an
innovation it's going to require an
understanding<00:05:37.530> that<00:05:37.860> the<00:05:38.010> glory<00:05:38.280> of
understanding that the glory of
understanding that the glory of
globalization<00:05:39.510> could<00:05:39.840> also<00:05:39.990> be<00:05:40.290> its<00:05:40.650> downfall
globalization could also be its downfall
globalization could also be its downfall
this<00:05:41.520> could<00:05:41.730> be<00:05:41.820> our<00:05:41.850> best<00:05:42.120> century<00:05:42.570> ever
this could be our best century ever
this could be our best century ever
because<00:05:43.200> of<00:05:43.320> the<00:05:43.440> achievements<00:05:43.980> or<00:05:44.190> it<00:05:44.490> could
because of the achievements or it could
because of the achievements or it could
be<00:05:44.940> our<00:05:45.120> worst<00:05:45.660> and<00:05:45.990> of<00:05:46.590> course<00:05:46.830> we<00:05:46.920> need<00:05:47.040> to
be our worst and of course we need to
be our worst and of course we need to
worry<00:05:47.340> about<00:05:47.460> the<00:05:47.670> individuals<00:05:48.270> particularly
worry about the individuals particularly
worry about the individuals particularly
the<00:05:48.840> individuals<00:05:49.470> that<00:05:49.950> feel<00:05:50.190> that<00:05:50.370> they've
the individuals that feel that they've
the individuals that feel that they've
been<00:05:50.790> left<00:05:51.060> out<00:05:51.270> in<00:05:51.300> one<00:05:51.630> way<00:05:51.750> or<00:05:51.780> another<00:05:51.840> an
been left out in one way or another an
been left out in one way or another an
individual<00:05:53.220> for<00:05:53.370> the<00:05:53.490> first<00:05:53.730> time<00:05:54.060> in<00:05:54.300> the
individual for the first time in the
individual for the first time in the
history<00:05:54.510> of<00:05:54.750> humanity<00:05:55.230> will<00:05:55.620> have<00:05:55.800> the
history of humanity will have the
history of humanity will have the
capacity<00:05:56.070> by<00:05:56.580> 2030<00:05:56.690> to<00:05:57.690> destroy<00:05:58.020> the<00:05:58.170> planet
capacity by 2030 to destroy the planet
capacity by 2030 to destroy the planet
to<00:05:59.070> wreck<00:05:59.310> everything<00:05:59.750> through<00:06:00.750> the<00:06:00.870> creation
to wreck everything through the creation
to wreck everything through the creation
for<00:06:01.320> example<00:06:01.860> of<00:06:01.980> a<00:06:02.070> bio<00:06:02.220> pathogen<00:06:02.880> how<00:06:03.330> do<00:06:03.390> we
for example of a bio pathogen how do we
for example of a bio pathogen how do we
begin<00:06:03.690> to<00:06:03.900> weave<00:06:04.470> these<00:06:04.710> tapestries<00:06:05.370> together
begin to weave these tapestries together
begin to weave these tapestries together
how<00:06:05.880> do<00:06:05.940> we<00:06:06.060> think<00:06:06.360> about<00:06:06.960> complex<00:06:07.350> systems<00:06:07.890> in
how do we think about complex systems in
how do we think about complex systems in
new<00:06:08.190> ways<00:06:08.370> that<00:06:08.670> will<00:06:09.030> be<00:06:09.120> the<00:06:09.270> challenge<00:06:09.630> of
new ways that will be the challenge of
new ways that will be the challenge of
the<00:06:09.870> scholars<00:06:10.260> and<00:06:10.440> of<00:06:10.680> all<00:06:10.830> of<00:06:10.950> us<00:06:11.070> are
the scholars and of all of us are
the scholars and of all of us are
engaged<00:06:11.970> in<00:06:12.240> thinking<00:06:12.450> about<00:06:12.630> the<00:06:12.900> future
engaged in thinking about the future
engaged in thinking about the future
the<00:06:13.470> rest<00:06:13.740> of<00:06:13.860> our<00:06:13.950> lives<00:06:14.190> will<00:06:14.430> be<00:06:14.520> in<00:06:14.550> the
the rest of our lives will be in the
the rest of our lives will be in the
future<00:06:15.030> we<00:06:15.390> need<00:06:15.420> to<00:06:15.630> prepare<00:06:15.870> for<00:06:16.080> it<00:06:16.230> now<00:06:16.410> we
future we need to prepare for it now we
future we need to prepare for it now we
need<00:06:17.010> to<00:06:17.100> understand<00:06:17.670> that<00:06:17.790> the<00:06:17.940> governance
need to understand that the governance
need to understand that the governance
structure<00:06:18.630> in<00:06:18.780> the<00:06:18.840> world<00:06:19.020> is<00:06:19.140> fossilized<00:06:19.380> it
structure in the world is fossilized it
structure in the world is fossilized it
cannot<00:06:20.310> begin<00:06:20.580> to<00:06:20.640> cope<00:06:21.000> with<00:06:21.510> the<00:06:21.630> challenges
cannot begin to cope with the challenges
cannot begin to cope with the challenges
that<00:06:22.320> this<00:06:22.740> will<00:06:22.950> bring<00:06:23.160> we<00:06:23.730> have<00:06:24.030> to<00:06:24.210> develop
that this will bring we have to develop
that this will bring we have to develop
a<00:06:24.630> new<00:06:24.660> way<00:06:24.990> of<00:06:25.020> managing<00:06:25.380> the<00:06:25.650> planet
a new way of managing the planet
a new way of managing the planet
collectively<00:06:26.550> through<00:06:27.030> collective<00:06:27.570> wisdom
collectively through collective wisdom
collectively through collective wisdom
we<00:06:28.320> know<00:06:28.530> and<00:06:28.740> I<00:06:28.830> know<00:06:28.890> from<00:06:29.250> my<00:06:29.460> own
we know and I know from my own
we know and I know from my own
experience<00:06:29.640> that<00:06:30.630> amazing<00:06:31.260> things<00:06:31.500> can
experience that amazing things can
experience that amazing things can
happen<00:06:31.980> when<00:06:32.310> individuals<00:06:33.180> and<00:06:33.360> societies
happen when individuals and societies
happen when individuals and societies
come<00:06:34.380> together<00:06:34.530> to<00:06:34.860> change<00:06:35.070> their<00:06:35.370> future<00:06:35.550> I
come together to change their future I
come together to change their future I
left<00:06:36.540> South<00:06:36.720> Africa<00:06:37.140> and<00:06:37.260> 15<00:06:37.590> years<00:06:37.830> later
left South Africa and 15 years later
left South Africa and 15 years later
after<00:06:38.850> thinking<00:06:39.030> I<00:06:39.120> would<00:06:39.270> never<00:06:39.420> go<00:06:39.630> back<00:06:39.840> we
after thinking I would never go back we
after thinking I would never go back we
had<00:06:40.410> the<00:06:40.530> privilege<00:06:40.740> and<00:06:41.010> the<00:06:41.130> honor<00:06:41.250> to<00:06:41.850> work
had the privilege and the honor to work
had the privilege and the honor to work
in<00:06:42.090> the<00:06:42.150> government<00:06:42.270> of<00:06:42.600> Nelson<00:06:42.900> Mandela<00:06:43.200> this
in the government of Nelson Mandela this
in the government of Nelson Mandela this
was<00:06:43.470> a<00:06:43.500> miracle<00:06:43.740> we<00:06:44.310> can<00:06:44.580> create<00:06:44.910> miracles
was a miracle we can create miracles
was a miracle we can create miracles
collectively<00:06:46.320> in<00:06:46.620> our<00:06:46.919> lifetime<00:06:47.430> it<00:06:47.729> is<00:06:47.880> vital
collectively in our lifetime it is vital
collectively in our lifetime it is vital
that<00:06:48.540> we
that we
that we
deucey<00:06:49.440> his<00:06:49.590> white<00:06:49.770> let<00:06:50.009> the<00:06:50.130> ideas<00:06:50.550> that<00:06:50.580> are
deucey his white let the ideas that are
deucey his white let the ideas that are
nurtured<00:06:51.300> in<00:06:51.449> Ted<00:06:51.690> that<00:06:52.199> the<00:06:52.320> ideas<00:06:52.680> that<00:06:52.740> we
nurtured in Ted that the ideas that we
nurtured in Ted that the ideas that we
think<00:06:53.160> about<00:06:53.280> look<00:06:53.759> forward<00:06:54.180> and<00:06:54.330> make<00:06:54.780> sure
think about look forward and make sure
think about look forward and make sure
that<00:06:55.139> this<00:06:55.259> will<00:06:55.380> be<00:06:55.470> the<00:06:55.560> most<00:06:55.710> glorious
that this will be the most glorious
that this will be the most glorious
century<00:06:56.610> and<00:06:56.820> not<00:06:57.060> one<00:06:57.270> of<00:06:57.419> eco<00:06:57.870> disaster
century and not one of eco disaster
century and not one of eco disaster
Anika<00:06:58.800> collapse<00:06:59.100> thank<00:06:59.460> you
Anika collapse thank you
Anika collapse thank you
[Applause]
Ian Goldin, global, globalization, technology, TED, TED-Ed, TED, Ed, TEDEducation
