Droids có nhận công việc của chúng tôi không? – Kim McAfee

Are droids taking our jobs? - Andrew McAfee
play-sharp-fill

Are droids taking our jobs? - Andrew McAfee

 


as<00:00:15.759> it<00:00:16.000> turns<00:00:16.279> out<00:00:16.800> when<00:00:17.000> tens<00:00:17.279> of<00:00:17.439> millions<00:00:17.840> of
as it turns out when tens of millions of as it turns out when tens of millions of people<00:00:18.480> are<00:00:18.800> unemployed<00:00:19.439> or<00:00:19.720> underemployed people are unemployed or underemployed people are unemployed or underemployed there's<00:00:20.880> a<00:00:21.039> fair<00:00:21.279> amount<00:00:21.480> of<00:00:21.640> interest<00:00:21.960> in there's a fair amount of interest in there's a fair amount of interest in what<00:00:22.359> technology<00:00:22.960> might<00:00:23.119> be<00:00:23.279> doing<00:00:23.560> to<00:00:23.720> the what technology might be doing to the what technology might be doing to the labor<00:00:24.279> force<00:00:25.119> and<00:00:25.279> as<00:00:25.400> I<00:00:25.519> look<00:00:25.640> at<00:00:25.800> the labor force and as I look at the labor force and as I look at the conversation<00:00:27.039> it<00:00:27.199> strikes<00:00:27.560> me<00:00:27.760> that<00:00:27.960> it's conversation it strikes me that it's conversation it strikes me that it's focused<00:00:28.599> on<00:00:28.960> exactly<00:00:29.400> the<00:00:29.519> right<00:00:29.759> top<00:00:30.000> Toc<00:00:30.759> and focused on exactly the right top Toc and focused on exactly the right top Toc and at<00:00:31.039> the<00:00:31.160> same<00:00:31.400> time<00:00:31.599> it's<00:00:31.800> missing<00:00:32.119> the<00:00:32.279> point at the same time it's missing the point at the same time it's missing the point entirely<00:00:33.600> the<00:00:33.800> topic<00:00:34.120> that<00:00:34.239> it's<00:00:34.440> focused<00:00:34.840> on entirely the topic that it's focused on entirely the topic that it's focused on the<00:00:35.280> question<00:00:35.760> is<00:00:36.079> whether<00:00:36.280> or<00:00:36.480> not<00:00:36.760> all<00:00:37.000> these the question is whether or not all these the question is whether or not all these digital<00:00:37.800> Technologies<00:00:38.800> are<00:00:39.200> affecting digital Technologies are affecting digital Technologies are affecting people's<00:00:40.079> ability<00:00:40.559> to<00:00:40.800> earn<00:00:41.039> a<00:00:41.200> living<00:00:41.680> or<00:00:41.920> to people's ability to earn a living or to people's ability to earn a living or to say<00:00:42.200> it<00:00:42.320> a<00:00:42.440> little<00:00:42.600> bit<00:00:42.800> different<00:00:43.079> way<00:00:43.640> are say it a little bit different way are say it a little bit different way are the<00:00:43.960> droids<00:00:44.399> taking<00:00:44.719> our<00:00:45.039> jobs<00:00:45.800> and<00:00:46.000> there's the droids taking our jobs and there's the droids taking our jobs and there's some<00:00:46.399> evidence<00:00:46.760> that<00:00:46.960> they<00:00:47.079> are<00:00:47.760> the<00:00:48.079> Great some evidence that they are the Great some evidence that they are the Great Recession<00:00:48.960> ended<00:00:49.600> when<00:00:50.039> American<00:00:50.559> GDP Recession ended when American GDP Recession ended when American GDP resumed<00:00:51.840> its<00:00:52.039> kind<00:00:52.199> of<00:00:52.399> slow<00:00:52.800> steady<00:00:53.239> March resumed its kind of slow steady March resumed its kind of slow steady March upward<00:00:54.800> and<00:00:55.000> some<00:00:55.239> other<00:00:55.559> economic upward and some other economic upward and some other economic indicators<00:00:56.800> also<00:00:57.120> started<00:00:57.440> to<00:00:57.600> rebound<00:00:58.000> and indicators also started to rebound and indicators also started to rebound and they<00:00:58.239> got<00:00:58.480> kind<00:00:58.600> of<00:00:58.760> healthy<00:00:59.199> kind<00:00:59.320> of<00:00:59.519> quickly they got kind of healthy kind of quickly they got kind of healthy kind of quickly corporate<00:01:00.879> profits<00:01:01.480> are<00:01:01.920> quite<00:01:02.280> high<00:01:02.600> in<00:01:02.840> fact corporate profits are quite high in fact corporate profits are quite high in fact if<00:01:03.280> you<00:01:03.440> include<00:01:03.840> Bank<00:01:04.159> profits<00:01:04.559> they're if you include Bank profits they're if you include Bank profits they're higher<00:01:05.080> than<00:01:05.239> they've<00:01:05.439> ever<00:01:05.720> been<00:01:06.479> and higher than they've ever been and higher than they've ever been and business<00:01:07.240> investment<00:01:07.840> in<00:01:08.240> gear<00:01:08.799> in<00:01:09.159> equipment business investment in gear in equipment business investment in gear in equipment and<00:01:10.280> hardware<00:01:10.840> and<00:01:11.119> software<00:01:11.720> is<00:01:11.880> at<00:01:12.040> an and hardware and software is at an and hardware and software is at an all-time<00:01:12.840> high<00:01:13.080> so<00:01:13.280> the<00:01:13.439> businesses<00:01:14.240> are all-time high so the businesses are all-time high so the businesses are getting<00:01:14.720> out<00:01:15.000> their<00:01:15.240> checkbooks<00:01:16.240> what getting out their checkbooks what getting out their checkbooks what they're<00:01:16.560> not<00:01:16.759> really<00:01:17.040> doing<00:01:17.400> is<00:01:17.600> hiring<00:01:18.600> so they're not really doing is hiring so they're not really doing is hiring so this<00:01:19.119> red<00:01:19.360> line<00:01:19.759> is<00:01:19.960> the<00:01:20.119> employment<00:01:20.640> to this red line is the employment to this red line is the employment to population<00:01:21.600> ratio<00:01:22.320> in<00:01:22.479> other<00:01:22.680> words<00:01:22.960> the population ratio in other words the population ratio in other words the percentage<00:01:23.840> of<00:01:24.159> working<00:01:24.600> age<00:01:25.079> people<00:01:25.360> in percentage of working age people in percentage of working age people in America<00:01:26.479> who<00:01:26.759> have<00:01:27.040> work<00:01:27.880> and<00:01:28.000> we<00:01:28.119> see<00:01:28.320> that<00:01:28.479> it America who have work and we see that it America who have work and we see that it cratered<00:01:29.400> during<00:01:29.640> the<00:01:29.960> Great<00:01:30.200> Recession<00:01:31.000> and cratered during the Great Recession and cratered during the Great Recession and it<00:01:31.280> hasn't<00:01:31.560> started<00:01:31.920> to<00:01:32.079> bounce<00:01:32.520> back<00:01:33.040> at<00:01:33.200> all it hasn't started to bounce back at all it hasn't started to bounce back at all but<00:01:34.200> the<00:01:34.439> story<00:01:34.840> is<00:01:35.000> not<00:01:35.280> just<00:01:35.439> a<00:01:35.640> recession but the story is not just a recession but the story is not just a recession story<00:01:36.880> The<00:01:37.040> Decade<00:01:37.399> that<00:01:37.520> we've<00:01:37.680> just<00:01:37.960> been story The Decade that we've just been story The Decade that we've just been through<00:01:38.600> had<00:01:38.920> relatively<00:01:39.640> anemic<00:01:40.320> job<00:01:40.600> growth through had relatively anemic job growth through had relatively anemic job growth all<00:01:41.320> throughout<00:01:42.320> especially<00:01:42.720> when<00:01:42.880> we all throughout especially when we all throughout especially when we compare<00:01:43.360> it<00:01:43.520> to<00:01:43.720> other<00:01:44.119> decades<00:01:44.920> and<00:01:45.079> the compare it to other decades and the compare it to other decades and the 2000s<00:01:45.920> of<00:01:46.079> the<00:01:46.200> only<00:01:46.439> time<00:01:46.680> we<00:01:46.840> have<00:01:47.040> on<00:01:47.280> record 2000s of the only time we have on record 2000s of the only time we have on record where<00:01:48.079> there<00:01:48.159> were<00:01:48.439> fewer<00:01:48.880> people<00:01:49.200> working<00:01:49.759> at where there were fewer people working at where there were fewer people working at the<00:01:50.000> end<00:01:50.200> of<00:01:50.320> the<00:01:50.520> decade<00:01:51.439> than<00:01:51.640> at<00:01:51.759> the the end of the decade than at the the end of the decade than at the beginning<00:01:52.920> this<00:01:53.040> is<00:01:53.240> not<00:01:53.439> what<00:01:53.560> you<00:01:53.680> want<00:01:53.920> to beginning this is not what you want to beginning this is not what you want to see<00:01:54.960> when<00:01:55.119> you<00:01:55.439> graph<00:01:56.039> the<00:01:56.320> number<00:01:56.719> of see when you graph the number of see when you graph the number of potential<00:01:57.680> employees<00:01:58.439> versus<00:01:58.840> the<00:01:58.960> number<00:01:59.200> of potential employees versus the number of potential employees versus the number of jobs<00:01:59.920> in<00:02:00.039> the<00:02:00.200> country<00:02:00.880> you<00:02:01.039> see<00:02:01.439> the<00:02:01.719> Gap<00:02:02.159> gets jobs in the country you see the Gap gets jobs in the country you see the Gap gets bigger<00:02:02.880> and<00:02:03.119> bigger<00:02:03.520> over<00:02:03.960> time<00:02:04.840> and<00:02:05.000> then bigger and bigger over time and then bigger and bigger over time and then during<00:02:05.399> the<00:02:05.560> Great<00:02:05.799> Recession<00:02:06.200> it<00:02:06.360> opened<00:02:06.719> up during the Great Recession it opened up during the Great Recession it opened up in<00:02:06.960> a<00:02:07.159> huge<00:02:07.479> way<00:02:08.200> I<00:02:08.319> did<00:02:08.520> some<00:02:08.720> quick in a huge way I did some quick in a huge way I did some quick calculations<00:02:09.679> I<00:02:09.800> took<00:02:10.000> the<00:02:10.200> last<00:02:10.479> 20<00:02:10.840> years<00:02:11.200> of calculations I took the last 20 years of calculations I took the last 20 years of GDP<00:02:12.000> growth<00:02:12.599> and<00:02:12.800> the<00:02:12.959> last<00:02:13.200> 20<00:02:13.520> years<00:02:13.760> of GDP growth and the last 20 years of GDP growth and the last 20 years of Labor<00:02:14.319> productivity<00:02:14.920> growth<00:02:15.440> and<00:02:15.560> used<00:02:15.920> those Labor productivity growth and used those Labor productivity growth and used those in<00:02:16.239> a<00:02:16.360> fairly<00:02:16.720> straightforward<00:02:17.599> way<00:02:18.000> to<00:02:18.160> try in a fairly straightforward way to try in a fairly straightforward way to try to<00:02:18.480> project<00:02:18.840> how<00:02:18.959> many<00:02:19.280> jobs<00:02:19.680> the<00:02:19.879> economy<00:02:20.280> was to project how many jobs the economy was to project how many jobs the economy was going<00:02:20.599> to<00:02:20.800> need<00:02:21.280> to<00:02:21.480> keep<00:02:21.720> growing<00:02:22.519> and<00:02:22.680> this going to need to keep growing and this going to need to keep growing and this is<00:02:22.920> the<00:02:23.080> line<00:02:23.280> that<00:02:23.400> I<00:02:23.560> came<00:02:23.760> up<00:02:24.080> with<00:02:24.680> is<00:02:24.920> that is the line that I came up with is that is the line that I came up with is that good<00:02:25.440> or<00:02:25.760> bad<00:02:26.480> this<00:02:26.680> is<00:02:26.879> the<00:02:27.040> government's good or bad this is the government's good or bad this is the government's projection<00:02:28.239> for<00:02:28.680> what<00:02:28.879> for<00:02:29.080> the<00:02:29.200> working<00:02:29.480> age projection for what for the working age projection for what for the working age population<00:02:30.640> going<00:02:31.000> forward<00:02:31.800> so<00:02:32.160> if<00:02:32.440> these population going forward so if these population going forward so if these predictions<00:02:33.480> are<00:02:33.879> accurate<00:02:34.760> that<00:02:35.000> Gap<00:02:35.239> is<00:02:35.400> not predictions are accurate that Gap is not predictions are accurate that Gap is not going<00:02:35.720> to<00:02:35.959> close<00:02:36.920> um<00:02:37.120> the<00:02:37.280> problem<00:02:37.560> is<00:02:37.800> I<00:02:37.959> don't going to close um the problem is I don't going to close um the problem is I don't think<00:02:38.440> these<00:02:38.680> projections<00:02:39.159> are<00:02:39.480> accurate<00:02:39.959> in think these projections are accurate in think these projections are accurate in particular<00:02:41.120> I<00:02:41.200> think<00:02:41.440> my<00:02:41.640> projection<00:02:42.080> is<00:02:42.280> way particular I think my projection is way particular I think my projection is way too<00:02:42.720> optimistic<00:02:43.480> because<00:02:43.760> when<00:02:43.959> I<00:02:44.120> did<00:02:44.319> it<00:02:44.920> I too optimistic because when I did it I too optimistic because when I did it I was<00:02:45.239> assuming<00:02:45.680> that<00:02:45.879> the<00:02:46.040> future<00:02:46.480> was<00:02:46.800> kind<00:02:46.959> of was assuming that the future was kind of was assuming that the future was kind of going<00:02:47.319> to<00:02:47.560> look<00:02:47.840> like<00:02:48.080> the<00:02:48.360> past<00:02:49.080> with<00:02:49.280> labor going to look like the past with labor going to look like the past with labor productivity<00:02:50.280> growth<00:02:50.800> and<00:02:50.959> that's<00:02:51.200> actually productivity growth and that's actually productivity growth and that's actually not<00:02:51.760> what<00:02:51.920> I<00:02:52.040> believe<00:02:52.519> because<00:02:52.720> when<00:02:52.879> I<00:02:53.040> look not what I believe because when I look not what I believe because when I look around<00:02:54.159> I<00:02:54.280> think<00:02:54.480> that<00:02:54.680> we<00:02:54.840> ain't<00:02:55.040> seen around I think that we ain't seen around I think that we ain't seen nothing<00:02:55.920> yet<00:02:56.280> when<00:02:56.400> it<00:02:56.519> comes<00:02:56.720> to nothing yet when it comes to nothing yet when it comes to Technology's<00:02:57.840> impact<00:02:58.200> on<00:02:58.360> the<00:02:58.480> labor<00:02:58.840> force Technology's impact on the labor force Technology's impact on the labor force just<00:03:00.319> in<00:03:00.480> the<00:03:00.720> past<00:03:01.000> couple<00:03:01.400> years<00:03:02.080> we've<00:03:02.319> seen just in the past couple years we've seen just in the past couple years we've seen digital<00:03:03.120> tools<00:03:03.720> display<00:03:04.319> skills<00:03:04.680> and digital tools display skills and digital tools display skills and abilities<00:03:05.519> that<00:03:05.720> they<00:03:05.959> never<00:03:06.440> ever<00:03:06.879> had abilities that they never ever had abilities that they never ever had before<00:03:08.319> and<00:03:08.640> that<00:03:08.879> kind<00:03:09.000> of<00:03:09.200> eat<00:03:09.599> deeply<00:03:10.120> into before and that kind of eat deeply into before and that kind of eat deeply into what<00:03:10.680> we<00:03:11.080> human<00:03:11.360> beings<00:03:11.799> do<00:03:12.040> for<00:03:12.239> a<00:03:12.400> living<00:03:12.959> let what we human beings do for a living let what we human beings do for a living let me<00:03:13.239> give<00:03:13.360> you<00:03:13.680> a<00:03:13.799> couple<00:03:14.159> examples<00:03:14.959> throughout me give you a couple examples throughout me give you a couple examples throughout all<00:03:15.519> of<00:03:15.720> history<00:03:16.159> if<00:03:16.239> you<00:03:16.400> wanted<00:03:16.760> something all of history if you wanted something all of history if you wanted something translated<00:03:17.840> from<00:03:18.040> one<00:03:18.319> language<00:03:18.720> into translated from one language into translated from one language into another<00:03:19.720> you<00:03:19.879> had<00:03:20.000> to<00:03:20.159> involve<00:03:20.480> a<00:03:20.640> human<00:03:21.000> being another you had to involve a human being another you had to involve a human being now<00:03:22.239> we<00:03:22.480> have<00:03:23.080> multilanguage<00:03:24.080> instantaneous now we have multilanguage instantaneous now we have multilanguage instantaneous automatic<00:03:25.760> translation<00:03:26.560> services<00:03:27.560> available automatic translation services available automatic translation services available for<00:03:28.640> free<00:03:29.480> via<00:03:29.920> many<00:03:30.080> of<00:03:30.200> our<00:03:30.360> devices<00:03:30.879> all<00:03:31.040> the for free via many of our devices all the for free via many of our devices all the way<00:03:31.360> down<00:03:31.519> to<00:03:31.720> smartphones<00:03:32.640> and<00:03:32.760> if<00:03:32.920> any<00:03:33.080> of<00:03:33.200> us way down to smartphones and if any of us way down to smartphones and if any of us have<00:03:33.599> used<00:03:34.040> these<00:03:34.480> we<00:03:34.640> know<00:03:34.959> that<00:03:35.200> they're<00:03:35.439> not have used these we know that they're not have used these we know that they're not perfect<00:03:36.840> but<00:03:37.040> they're<00:03:37.480> decent<00:03:38.480> throughout perfect but they're decent throughout perfect but they're decent throughout all<00:03:39.040> of<00:03:39.239> history<00:03:39.640> if<00:03:39.760> you<00:03:39.920> wanted<00:03:40.439> something all of history if you wanted something all of history if you wanted something written<00:03:41.480> a<00:03:41.680> report<00:03:42.120> or<00:03:42.280> an<00:03:42.439> article<00:03:43.280> you<00:03:43.439> had written a report or an article you had written a report or an article you had to<00:03:43.720> involve<00:03:44.040> a<00:03:44.360> person<00:03:45.360> not<00:03:45.519> anymore<00:03:46.159> this<00:03:46.280> is to involve a person not anymore this is to involve a person not anymore this is an<00:03:46.519> article<00:03:46.840> that<00:03:46.959> appeared<00:03:47.239> in<00:03:47.319> Forbes an article that appeared in Forbes an article that appeared in Forbes online<00:03:48.239> a<00:03:48.400> while<00:03:48.680> back<00:03:48.879> about<00:03:49.159> Apple's online a while back about Apple's online a while back about Apple's earnings<00:03:50.439> it<00:03:50.560> was<00:03:50.720> written<00:03:51.200> by<00:03:51.360> an<00:03:52.000> algorithm earnings it was written by an algorithm earnings it was written by an algorithm and<00:03:53.239> it's<00:03:53.439> not<00:03:53.840> decent<00:03:54.840> it's and it's not decent it's and it's not decent it's perfect<00:03:57.079> a<00:03:57.159> lot<00:03:57.280> of<00:03:57.439> people<00:03:58.000> look<00:03:58.120> at<00:03:58.280> this<00:03:58.400> and perfect a lot of people look at this and perfect a lot of people look at this and they<00:03:58.599> say<00:03:58.879> okay<00:03:59.040> but<00:03:59.159> those<00:03:59.280> are<00:03:59.439> very they say okay but those are very they say okay but those are very specific<00:04:00.319> narrow<00:04:00.799> tasks<00:04:01.319> and<00:04:01.480> most<00:04:01.760> knowledge specific narrow tasks and most knowledge specific narrow tasks and most knowledge workers<00:04:02.640> are<00:04:02.920> actually<00:04:03.319> generalists<00:04:04.319> and workers are actually generalists and workers are actually generalists and what<00:04:04.680> they<00:04:04.840> do<00:04:05.079> is<00:04:05.239> sit<00:04:05.439> on<00:04:05.640> top<00:04:05.760> of<00:04:05.879> a<00:04:06.000> very what they do is sit on top of a very what they do is sit on top of a very large<00:04:06.480> body<00:04:06.720> of<00:04:06.959> expertise<00:04:07.560> and<00:04:07.840> knowledge large body of expertise and knowledge large body of expertise and knowledge and<00:04:08.640> they<00:04:08.799> use<00:04:09.120> that<00:04:09.239> to<00:04:09.439> react<00:04:09.799> on<00:04:09.959> the<00:04:10.079> fly<00:04:10.400> to and they use that to react on the fly to and they use that to react on the fly to kind<00:04:10.680> of<00:04:10.799> unpredictable<00:04:11.519> demands<00:04:12.319> and<00:04:12.480> that's kind of unpredictable demands and that's kind of unpredictable demands and that's very<00:04:12.959> very<00:04:13.200> hard<00:04:13.400> to<00:04:13.920> automate<00:04:14.920> one<00:04:15.040> of<00:04:15.159> the very very hard to automate one of the very very hard to automate one of the most<00:04:15.439> impressive<00:04:16.120> knowledge<00:04:16.479> workers<00:04:16.840> in most impressive knowledge workers in most impressive knowledge workers in recent<00:04:17.320> memory<00:04:17.639> is<00:04:17.759> a<00:04:17.880> guy<00:04:18.040> named<00:04:18.320> Ken recent memory is a guy named Ken recent memory is a guy named Ken Jennings<00:04:19.519> he<00:04:19.759> won<00:04:20.199> the<00:04:20.359> quiz<00:04:20.600> show<00:04:20.919> Jeopardy Jennings he won the quiz show Jeopardy Jennings he won the quiz show Jeopardy 74<00:04:22.639> times<00:04:23.199> in<00:04:23.360> a<00:04:23.759> row<00:04:24.759> took<00:04:25.040> home<00:04:25.199> $3 74 times in a row took home $3 74 times in a row took home $3 million<00:04:27.160> uh<00:04:27.360> that's<00:04:27.639> Ken<00:04:27.960> on<00:04:28.120> the<00:04:28.320> right million uh that's Ken on the right million uh that's Ken on the right getting<00:04:29.039> beat<00:04:29.400> three<00:04:29.680> 3<00:04:29.880> to<00:04:30.039> one<00:04:31.000> by<00:04:31.639> Watson getting beat three 3 to one by Watson getting beat three 3 to one by Watson the<00:04:32.360> jeopardy<00:04:32.800> playing<00:04:33.160> supercomputer<00:04:34.080> from the jeopardy playing supercomputer from the jeopardy playing supercomputer from IBM<00:04:35.880> so<00:04:36.120> when<00:04:36.240> we<00:04:36.400> look<00:04:36.520> at<00:04:36.680> what<00:04:36.840> technology IBM so when we look at what technology IBM so when we look at what technology can<00:04:37.479> do<00:04:37.680> to<00:04:37.840> general<00:04:38.199> knowledge<00:04:38.600> workers<00:04:39.600> I can do to general knowledge workers I can do to general knowledge workers I start<00:04:40.000> to<00:04:40.160> think<00:04:40.400> there<00:04:40.560> might<00:04:40.800> not<00:04:41.000> be start to think there might not be start to think there might not be something<00:04:41.520> so<00:04:42.080> special<00:04:42.440> about<00:04:42.639> this<00:04:42.880> idea<00:04:43.120> of something so special about this idea of something so special about this idea of a<00:04:43.360> generalist<00:04:44.360> particularly<00:04:45.039> when<00:04:45.160> we<00:04:45.280> start a generalist particularly when we start a generalist particularly when we start doing<00:04:45.800> things<00:04:46.039> like<00:04:46.240> hooking<00:04:46.600> Siri<00:04:47.120> up<00:04:47.280> to doing things like hooking Siri up to doing things like hooking Siri up to Watson<00:04:48.639> and<00:04:48.800> having<00:04:49.120> technologies<00:04:49.800> that<00:04:49.919> can Watson and having technologies that can Watson and having technologies that can understand<00:04:50.880> what<00:04:51.000> we're<00:04:51.199> saying<00:04:51.919> and<00:04:52.080> repeat understand what we're saying and repeat understand what we're saying and repeat speech<00:04:53.000> back<00:04:53.240> to<00:04:53.440> us<00:04:54.000> now<00:04:54.520> Siri<00:04:54.919> is<00:04:55.080> far<00:04:55.320> from speech back to us now Siri is far from speech back to us now Siri is far from perfect<00:04:55.919> and<00:04:56.039> we<00:04:56.120> can<00:04:56.320> make<00:04:56.520> fun<00:04:56.680> of<00:04:56.840> her<00:04:57.039> flaws perfect and we can make fun of her flaws perfect and we can make fun of her flaws but<00:04:58.000> we<00:04:58.080> should<00:04:58.360> also<00:04:58.680> keep<00:04:58.840> in<00:04:58.960> mind<00:04:59.199> that<00:04:59.320> if but we should also keep in mind that if but we should also keep in mind that if Technologies<00:05:00.280> like<00:05:00.440> Siri<00:05:00.800> and<00:05:01.039> Watson Technologies like Siri and Watson Technologies like Siri and Watson approve<00:05:02.280> along<00:05:02.759> a<00:05:02.919> Moors<00:05:03.360> law<00:05:03.880> trajectory approve along a Moors law trajectory approve along a Moors law trajectory which<00:05:05.160> they<00:05:05.360> will<00:05:06.320> in<00:05:06.560> 6<00:05:06.880> years<00:05:07.240> they're<00:05:07.400> not which they will in 6 years they're not which they will in 6 years they're not going<00:05:07.759> to<00:05:07.880> be<00:05:08.000> two<00:05:08.240> times<00:05:08.520> better<00:05:08.720> or<00:05:08.880> four going to be two times better or four going to be two times better or four times<00:05:09.440> better<00:05:09.880> they'll<00:05:10.080> be<00:05:10.280> 16<00:05:10.840> times<00:05:11.160> better times better they'll be 16 times better times better they'll be 16 times better than<00:05:12.039> than<00:05:12.199> they<00:05:12.320> are<00:05:12.680> right<00:05:12.880> now<00:05:13.360> so<00:05:13.560> I<00:05:13.639> start than than they are right now so I start than than they are right now so I start to<00:05:14.000> think<00:05:14.160> that<00:05:14.320> a<00:05:14.440> lot<00:05:14.560> of<00:05:14.759> knowledge<00:05:15.120> work<00:05:15.320> is to think that a lot of knowledge work is to think that a lot of knowledge work is going<00:05:15.560> to<00:05:15.720> be<00:05:15.919> affected<00:05:16.400> by<00:05:16.639> this<00:05:17.320> and<00:05:17.560> digital going to be affected by this and digital going to be affected by this and digital Technologies<00:05:18.639> are<00:05:18.919> not<00:05:19.319> just<00:05:19.680> impacting Technologies are not just impacting Technologies are not just impacting knowledge<00:05:20.560> work<00:05:21.039> they're<00:05:21.280> starting<00:05:21.680> to<00:05:21.880> flex knowledge work they're starting to flex knowledge work they're starting to flex their<00:05:22.440> muscles<00:05:22.880> in<00:05:23.080> the<00:05:23.240> physical<00:05:23.680> world<00:05:24.039> as their muscles in the physical world as their muscles in the physical world as well<00:05:24.800> I<00:05:24.919> had<00:05:25.039> the<00:05:25.160> chance<00:05:25.400> a<00:05:25.560> little<00:05:25.759> while well I had the chance a little while well I had the chance a little while back<00:05:26.160> to<00:05:26.360> ride<00:05:26.600> in<00:05:26.759> the<00:05:26.919> Google<00:05:27.280> autonomous back to ride in the Google autonomous back to ride in the Google autonomous car<00:05:28.680> which<00:05:28.960> is<00:05:29.240> as<00:05:29.960> as<00:05:30.120> it car which is as as it car which is as as it sounds<00:05:33.160> and<00:05:33.400> I<00:05:33.479> will<00:05:33.720> vouch<00:05:34.120> that<00:05:34.199> it<00:05:34.400> handled sounds and I will vouch that it handled sounds and I will vouch that it handled the<00:05:34.919> stopandgo<00:05:35.600> traffic<00:05:35.960> on the stopandgo traffic on the stopandgo traffic on us101<00:05:37.680> very<00:05:38.000> smoothly<00:05:38.800> there<00:05:38.919> are<00:05:39.160> about us101 very smoothly there are about us101 very smoothly there are about three<00:05:39.639> and<00:05:39.720> a<00:05:39.880> half<00:05:40.039> million<00:05:40.360> people<00:05:40.600> who three and a half million people who three and a half million people who drive<00:05:41.039> trucks<00:05:41.319> for<00:05:41.479> a<00:05:41.600> living<00:05:41.919> in<00:05:42.000> the<00:05:42.120> United drive trucks for a living in the United drive trucks for a living in the United States<00:05:43.039> I<00:05:43.120> think<00:05:43.319> some<00:05:43.440> of<00:05:43.600> them<00:05:43.720> are<00:05:43.840> going<00:05:43.960> to States I think some of them are going to States I think some of them are going to be<00:05:44.240> affected<00:05:44.639> by<00:05:44.880> this<00:05:45.240> technology<00:05:46.240> and<00:05:46.560> right be affected by this technology and right be affected by this technology and right now<00:05:47.120> humanoid<00:05:47.680> robots<00:05:48.080> are<00:05:48.240> still<00:05:48.680> incredibly now humanoid robots are still incredibly now humanoid robots are still incredibly primitive<00:05:49.919> they<00:05:50.120> can't<00:05:50.400> do<00:05:50.680> very<00:05:50.960> much<00:05:51.840> but primitive they can't do very much but primitive they can't do very much but they're<00:05:52.160> getting<00:05:52.440> better<00:05:52.800> quite<00:05:53.039> quickly<00:05:53.639> and they're getting better quite quickly and they're getting better quite quickly and DARPA<00:05:54.360> which<00:05:54.479> is<00:05:54.759> the<00:05:55.000> investment<00:05:55.520> arm<00:05:55.960> of<00:05:56.080> the DARPA which is the investment arm of the DARPA which is the investment arm of the defense<00:05:56.639> department<00:05:57.440> is<00:05:57.639> trying<00:05:57.840> to defense department is trying to defense department is trying to accelerate<00:05:58.520> their<00:05:58.759> trajectory<00:05:59.360> so<00:05:59.680> in<00:05:59.840> short accelerate their trajectory so in short accelerate their trajectory so in short yeah<00:06:01.240> the<00:06:01.520> uh<00:06:01.680> the<00:06:01.800> droids<00:06:02.160> are<00:06:02.360> coming<00:06:02.639> for yeah the uh the droids are coming for yeah the uh the droids are coming for our<00:06:03.199> jobs<00:06:04.039> um<00:06:05.039> in<00:06:05.160> the<00:06:05.280> short<00:06:05.560> term<00:06:06.080> we<00:06:06.199> can our jobs um in the short term we can our jobs um in the short term we can stimulate<00:06:07.120> job<00:06:07.360> growth<00:06:08.039> by<00:06:08.520> encouraging stimulate job growth by encouraging stimulate job growth by encouraging entrepreneurship<00:06:10.160> and<00:06:10.280> by<00:06:10.440> investing<00:06:10.840> in entrepreneurship and by investing in entrepreneurship and by investing in infrastructure<00:06:12.039> because<00:06:12.280> the<00:06:12.400> robots<00:06:12.800> today infrastructure because the robots today infrastructure because the robots today still<00:06:13.319> aren't<00:06:13.639> very<00:06:13.880> good<00:06:14.120> at<00:06:14.280> fixing<00:06:14.720> Bridges still aren't very good at fixing Bridges still aren't very good at fixing Bridges but<00:06:15.919> in<00:06:16.039> the<00:06:16.240> not<00:06:16.680> too<00:06:16.960> long<00:06:17.240> term<00:06:17.599> I<00:06:17.680> think but in the not too long term I think but in the not too long term I think within<00:06:18.080> the<00:06:18.280> lifetimes<00:06:18.960> of<00:06:19.440> most<00:06:19.639> of<00:06:19.759> the within the lifetimes of most of the within the lifetimes of most of the people<00:06:20.199> in<00:06:20.400> this<00:06:20.599> room<00:06:21.440> we're<00:06:21.599> going<00:06:21.720> to people in this room we're going to people in this room we're going to transition<00:06:22.400> into<00:06:22.639> an<00:06:22.840> economy<00:06:23.280> that<00:06:23.440> is<00:06:23.880> very transition into an economy that is very transition into an economy that is very productive<00:06:25.000> but<00:06:25.199> that<00:06:25.440> just<00:06:25.759> doesn't<00:06:26.120> need<00:06:26.360> a productive but that just doesn't need a productive but that just doesn't need a lot<00:06:26.599> of<00:06:26.800> human<00:06:27.120> workers<00:06:27.960> and<00:06:28.080> managing<00:06:28.520> that lot of human workers and managing that lot of human workers and managing that transition<00:06:29.560> is<00:06:29.680> going<00:06:29.759> to<00:06:29.840> be<00:06:29.960> the<00:06:30.080> greatest transition is going to be the greatest transition is going to be the greatest challenge<00:06:30.960> that<00:06:31.080> our<00:06:31.319> society<00:06:31.880> faces<00:06:32.639> uh challenge that our society faces uh challenge that our society faces uh voler<00:06:33.319> summarized<00:06:33.960> why<00:06:34.240> he<00:06:34.319> said<00:06:34.599> work<00:06:34.919> saves voler summarized why he said work saves voler summarized why he said work saves us<00:06:35.479> from<00:06:35.759> three<00:06:36.120> great<00:06:36.440> evils<00:06:37.319> bordom<00:06:38.319> Vice us from three great evils bordom Vice us from three great evils bordom Vice and<00:06:39.479> need<00:06:40.479> but<00:06:41.120> despite<00:06:41.560> this<00:06:41.720> challenge<00:06:42.520> I and need but despite this challenge I and need but despite this challenge I I'm<00:06:42.880> personally<00:06:43.280> I'm<00:06:43.400> still<00:06:43.639> a<00:06:43.919> huge<00:06:44.479> digital I'm personally I'm still a huge digital I'm personally I'm still a huge digital Optimist<00:06:45.360> and<00:06:45.599> I<00:06:45.759> am<00:06:46.120> supremely<00:06:46.800> confident Optimist and I am supremely confident Optimist and I am supremely confident that<00:06:47.680> the<00:06:47.840> digital<00:06:48.240> technologies<00:06:48.840> that<00:06:48.960> we're that the digital technologies that we're that the digital technologies that we're developing<00:06:49.680> now<00:06:50.039> are<00:06:50.199> going<00:06:50.280> to<00:06:50.479> take<00:06:50.680> us<00:06:50.880> into developing now are going to take us into developing now are going to take us into a<00:06:51.319> utopian<00:06:52.039> future<00:06:52.880> not<00:06:53.039> a<00:06:53.199> dystopian<00:06:54.000> future a utopian future not a dystopian future a utopian future not a dystopian future and<00:06:54.720> to<00:06:54.960> explain<00:06:55.479> why<00:06:55.720> I<00:06:55.800> want<00:06:55.879> to<00:06:56.039> Poe<00:06:56.319> kind<00:06:56.440> of and to explain why I want to Poe kind of and to explain why I want to Poe kind of a<00:06:56.680> ridiculously<00:06:57.400> broad<00:06:57.840> question<00:06:58.400> I<00:06:58.479> want<00:06:58.560> to a ridiculously broad question I want to a ridiculously broad question I want to ask<00:06:59.000> what<00:06:59.120> have<00:06:59.280> been<00:06:59.360> the<00:06:59.720> most<00:07:00.000> important ask what have been the most important ask what have been the most important developments<00:07:01.479> in<00:07:01.720> human<00:07:02.120> history<00:07:02.960> now<00:07:03.120> I<00:07:03.199> want developments in human history now I want developments in human history now I want to<00:07:03.400> share<00:07:04.080> my<00:07:04.440> the<00:07:04.639> some<00:07:04.759> of<00:07:04.879> the<00:07:05.039> answers<00:07:05.400> that to share my the some of the answers that to share my the some of the answers that I've<00:07:05.720> got<00:07:05.879> in<00:07:06.080> response<00:07:06.400> to<00:07:06.599> this<00:07:06.759> question I've got in response to this question I've got in response to this question it's<00:07:07.120> a<00:07:07.199> wonderful<00:07:07.680> question<00:07:07.919> to<00:07:08.160> ask<00:07:08.360> and<00:07:08.520> to it's a wonderful question to ask and to it's a wonderful question to ask and to start<00:07:08.879> an<00:07:09.039> endless<00:07:09.479> debate<00:07:09.800> about<00:07:10.360> because start an endless debate about because start an endless debate about because some<00:07:10.800> people<00:07:11.000> are<00:07:11.160> going<00:07:11.240> to<00:07:11.440> bring<00:07:11.720> up some people are going to bring up some people are going to bring up systems<00:07:12.599> in<00:07:12.879> of<00:07:13.080> philosophy<00:07:13.840> in<00:07:14.120> both<00:07:14.360> the systems in of philosophy in both the systems in of philosophy in both the west<00:07:14.840> and<00:07:15.039> the<00:07:15.199> East<00:07:15.879> that<00:07:16.039> have<00:07:16.240> changed<00:07:16.720> how west and the East that have changed how west and the East that have changed how a<00:07:16.960> lot<00:07:17.080> of<00:07:17.280> people<00:07:17.639> think<00:07:17.919> about<00:07:18.199> the<00:07:18.360> world a lot of people think about the world a lot of people think about the world and<00:07:19.240> then<00:07:19.400> other<00:07:19.639> people<00:07:19.879> will<00:07:20.039> say<00:07:20.440> no and then other people will say no and then other people will say no actually<00:07:21.199> the<00:07:21.360> big<00:07:21.560> Stories<00:07:22.000> the<00:07:22.120> big actually the big Stories the big actually the big Stories the big developments<00:07:22.879> are<00:07:23.080> the<00:07:23.240> founding<00:07:23.720> of<00:07:23.840> the developments are the founding of the developments are the founding of the world's<00:07:24.319> major<00:07:24.759> religions<00:07:25.759> which<00:07:25.960> have world's major religions which have world's major religions which have changed<00:07:26.720> civilizations<00:07:27.560> and<00:07:27.720> have<00:07:27.919> changed changed civilizations and have changed changed civilizations and have changed and<00:07:28.479> influenced<00:07:28.960> how<00:07:29.160> countless<00:07:29.759> people<00:07:30.080> are and influenced how countless people are and influenced how countless people are living<00:07:30.599> their<00:07:30.879> lives<00:07:31.560> and<00:07:31.680> then<00:07:31.800> some<00:07:32.000> other living their lives and then some other living their lives and then some other folk<00:07:32.440> will<00:07:32.639> say<00:07:33.440> actually<00:07:34.080> what<00:07:34.280> changes folk will say actually what changes folk will say actually what changes civilizations<00:07:35.919> what<00:07:36.160> modifies<00:07:36.720> them<00:07:36.960> and civilizations what modifies them and civilizations what modifies them and what<00:07:37.199> changes<00:07:37.680> people<00:07:38.080> live<00:07:38.280> people's<00:07:38.639> lives what changes people live people's lives what changes people live people's lives are<00:07:39.879> Empires<00:07:40.520> so<00:07:40.720> the<00:07:40.879> great<00:07:41.160> developments<00:07:41.680> in are Empires so the great developments in are Empires so the great developments in human<00:07:42.199> history<00:07:42.960> are<00:07:43.199> stories<00:07:43.680> of<00:07:43.960> conquest human history are stories of conquest human history are stories of conquest and<00:07:44.759> of<00:07:44.960> war<00:07:45.840> and<00:07:46.000> then<00:07:46.159> some<00:07:46.360> cheery<00:07:46.720> Soul and of war and then some cheery Soul and of war and then some cheery Soul usually<00:07:47.400> always<00:07:47.599> pipes<00:07:47.840> up<00:07:47.960> and<00:07:48.039> says<00:07:48.280> hey usually always pipes up and says hey usually always pipes up and says hey don't<00:07:48.680> forget<00:07:48.960> about



plagues<00:07:54.319> there<00:07:54.440> are<00:07:54.599> some<00:07:54.840> optimistic
plagues there are some optimistic plagues there are some optimistic answers<00:07:55.800> to<00:07:56.039> this<00:07:56.240> question<00:07:56.599> so<00:07:56.800> some<00:07:56.960> people answers to this question so some people answers to this question so some people will<00:07:57.280> bring<00:07:57.479> up<00:07:57.599> the<00:07:57.720> Age<00:07:57.919> of<00:07:58.120> Exploration<00:07:58.680> and will bring up the Age of Exploration and will bring up the Age of Exploration and the<00:07:58.960> opening<00:07:59.280> of<00:07:59.599> of<00:07:59.759> the<00:07:59.879> world<00:08:00.560> others<00:08:00.879> will the opening of of the world others will the opening of of the world others will talk<00:08:01.360> about<00:08:01.680> intellectual<00:08:02.360> achievements<00:08:02.919> in talk about intellectual achievements in talk about intellectual achievements in disciplines<00:08:03.720> like<00:08:03.960> math<00:08:04.560> that<00:08:04.680> have<00:08:04.840> helped disciplines like math that have helped disciplines like math that have helped us<00:08:05.280> get<00:08:05.400> a<00:08:05.520> better<00:08:05.800> handle<00:08:06.120> on<00:08:06.319> the<00:08:06.440> world<00:08:07.039> and us get a better handle on the world and us get a better handle on the world and other<00:08:07.479> folk<00:08:07.720> will<00:08:07.919> talk<00:08:08.199> about<00:08:08.520> periods<00:08:08.919> when other folk will talk about periods when other folk will talk about periods when there<00:08:09.159> was<00:08:09.280> a<00:08:09.440> deep<00:08:09.720> flourishing<00:08:10.440> of<00:08:10.599> the<00:08:10.720> Arts there was a deep flourishing of the Arts there was a deep flourishing of the Arts and<00:08:11.240> Sciences<00:08:12.159> so<00:08:12.479> this<00:08:12.639> debate<00:08:12.919> will<00:08:13.080> go<00:08:13.240> on and Sciences so this debate will go on and Sciences so this debate will go on and<00:08:13.520> on<00:08:13.759> it's<00:08:13.879> an<00:08:14.039> endless<00:08:14.599> debate<00:08:15.280> and and on it's an endless debate and and on it's an endless debate and there's<00:08:15.759> no<00:08:16.120> conclusive<00:08:16.840> no<00:08:17.080> single<00:08:17.520> answer there's no conclusive no single answer there's no conclusive no single answer to<00:08:18.120> it<00:08:18.520> but<00:08:18.720> if<00:08:18.800> you're<00:08:18.960> a<00:08:19.120> geek<00:08:19.520> like<00:08:19.720> me<00:08:20.039> you to it but if you're a geek like me you to it but if you're a geek like me you say<00:08:20.639> well<00:08:21.159> what<00:08:21.240> did<00:08:21.440> the<00:08:21.599> data<00:08:22.000> say<00:08:22.759> and<00:08:22.879> you say well what did the data say and you say well what did the data say and you start<00:08:23.199> to<00:08:23.360> do<00:08:23.680> things<00:08:24.039> like<00:08:24.400> graph<00:08:24.919> and<00:08:25.080> things start to do things like graph and things start to do things like graph and things that<00:08:25.440> we<00:08:25.560> might<00:08:25.759> be<00:08:25.960> interested<00:08:26.400> in<00:08:26.800> the<00:08:27.039> total that we might be interested in the total that we might be interested in the total worldwide<00:08:28.240> population<00:08:28.919> for<00:08:29.120> example worldwide population for example worldwide population for example or<00:08:30.319> some<00:08:30.560> measure<00:08:31.000> of<00:08:31.199> Social<00:08:31.639> Development<00:08:32.360> or or some measure of Social Development or or some measure of Social Development or the<00:08:32.800> state<00:08:32.959> of<00:08:33.159> advancement<00:08:33.680> of<00:08:33.800> a<00:08:34.039> society the state of advancement of a society the state of advancement of a society and<00:08:34.880> you<00:08:34.959> start<00:08:35.159> to<00:08:35.360> plot<00:08:35.640> the<00:08:35.760> data<00:08:36.440> because and you start to plot the data because and you start to plot the data because by<00:08:37.080> this<00:08:37.959> approach<00:08:38.959> the<00:08:39.120> big<00:08:39.320> Stories<00:08:39.719> the<00:08:39.880> big by this approach the big Stories the big by this approach the big Stories the big developments<00:08:40.479> in<00:08:40.640> human<00:08:40.919> history<00:08:41.279> are<00:08:41.440> the developments in human history are the developments in human history are the ones<00:08:41.760> that<00:08:41.880> will<00:08:42.080> bend<00:08:42.479> these<00:08:42.760> curves<00:08:43.200> a<00:08:43.360> lot ones that will bend these curves a lot ones that will bend these curves a lot so<00:08:44.240> when<00:08:44.360> you<00:08:44.480> do<00:08:44.680> this<00:08:44.800> and<00:08:44.920> when<00:08:45.040> you<00:08:45.160> plot so when you do this and when you plot so when you do this and when you plot the<00:08:45.680> data<00:08:46.120> you<00:08:46.320> pretty<00:08:46.600> quickly<00:08:46.920> come<00:08:47.040> to<00:08:47.200> some the data you pretty quickly come to some the data you pretty quickly come to some weird<00:08:48.120> conclusions<00:08:49.120> you<00:08:49.320> conclude<00:08:49.920> actually weird conclusions you conclude actually weird conclusions you conclude actually that<00:08:50.839> none<00:08:51.040> of<00:08:51.279> these<00:08:51.519> things<00:08:51.839> have<00:08:52.080> mattered that none of these things have mattered that none of these things have mattered very



much<00:08:57.240> hey<00:08:57.640> they<00:08:58.640> haven't<00:08:58.880> done<00:08:59.000> a<00:08:59.160> darn<00:08:59.640> thing
much hey they haven't done a darn thing much hey they haven't done a darn thing to<00:08:59.959> the<00:09:00.079> curves<00:09:00.640> there<00:09:00.839> has<00:09:01.040> been<00:09:02.000> one<00:09:02.560> story to the curves there has been one story to the curves there has been one story one<00:09:03.800> development<00:09:04.399> in<00:09:04.560> human<00:09:04.959> history<00:09:05.399> that one development in human history that one development in human history that bent<00:09:05.800> the<00:09:05.959> curve<00:09:06.399> bent<00:09:06.680> it<00:09:06.959> just<00:09:07.120> about<00:09:07.600> 90° bent the curve bent it just about 90° bent the curve bent it just about 90° and<00:09:08.800> it<00:09:08.920> is<00:09:09.079> a<00:09:09.320> technology<00:09:10.120> Story<00:09:11.120> the<00:09:11.279> steam and it is a technology Story the steam and it is a technology Story the steam engine<00:09:11.959> and<00:09:12.120> the<00:09:12.279> other<00:09:12.760> Associated engine and the other Associated engine and the other Associated Technologies<00:09:13.920> of<00:09:14.079> the<00:09:14.200> Industrial Technologies of the Industrial Technologies of the Industrial Revolution<00:09:16.040> changed<00:09:16.600> the<00:09:16.720> world<00:09:17.040> and Revolution changed the world and Revolution changed the world and influenced<00:09:17.839> human<00:09:18.120> history<00:09:18.519> so<00:09:18.760> much<00:09:19.320> that<00:09:19.440> in influenced human history so much that in influenced human history so much that in the<00:09:19.680> words<00:09:19.959> of<00:09:20.120> the<00:09:20.279> historian<00:09:20.760> Ian<00:09:21.040> Morris the words of the historian Ian Morris the words of the historian Ian Morris they<00:09:21.959> made<00:09:22.279> mockery<00:09:22.959> out<00:09:23.079> of<00:09:23.399> all<00:09:23.680> that<00:09:23.880> had they made mockery out of all that had they made mockery out of all that had come<00:09:24.600> before<00:09:25.600> and<00:09:25.760> they<00:09:25.959> did<00:09:26.240> this<00:09:26.560> by come before and they did this by come before and they did this by infinitely<00:09:27.320> multiplying<00:09:27.920> the<00:09:28.079> power<00:09:28.320> of<00:09:28.440> our infinitely multiplying the power of our infinitely multiplying the power of our muscles<00:09:29.000> over<00:09:29.640> the<00:09:29.760> limitations<00:09:30.360> of<00:09:30.480> our muscles over the limitations of our muscles over the limitations of our muscles<00:09:31.640> now<00:09:32.120> what<00:09:32.279> we're<00:09:32.519> in<00:09:32.640> the<00:09:32.760> middle<00:09:33.079> of muscles now what we're in the middle of muscles now what we're in the middle of now<00:09:34.000> is<00:09:34.200> overcoming<00:09:34.720> the<00:09:34.839> limitations<00:09:35.399> of<00:09:35.560> our now is overcoming the limitations of our now is overcoming the limitations of our individual<00:09:36.399> brains<00:09:37.079> and<00:09:37.399> infinitely individual brains and infinitely individual brains and infinitely multiplying<00:09:38.640> our<00:09:38.839> mental<00:09:39.279> power<00:09:40.200> how<00:09:40.399> can multiplying our mental power how can multiplying our mental power how can this<00:09:40.920> not<00:09:41.360> be<00:09:41.720> as<00:09:41.920> big<00:09:42.120> a<00:09:42.279> deal<00:09:43.160> as<00:09:43.360> overcoming this not be as big a deal as overcoming this not be as big a deal as overcoming the<00:09:44.040> limitations<00:09:44.680> of<00:09:44.800> our<00:09:45.000> muscles<00:09:45.959> so<00:09:46.279> at<00:09:46.399> the the limitations of our muscles so at the the limitations of our muscles so at the risk<00:09:47.040> of<00:09:47.240> repeating<00:09:47.760> myself<00:09:48.079> a<00:09:48.200> little<00:09:48.399> bit risk of repeating myself a little bit risk of repeating myself a little bit when<00:09:49.160> I<00:09:49.560> look<00:09:49.800> at<00:09:50.000> what's<00:09:50.279> going<00:09:50.480> on<00:09:50.720> with when I look at what's going on with when I look at what's going on with digital<00:09:51.360> technology<00:09:51.959> these<00:09:52.160> days<00:09:52.560> we<00:09:52.680> are<00:09:52.839> not digital technology these days we are not digital technology these days we are not anywhere<00:09:53.600> near<00:09:54.079> through<00:09:54.399> with<00:09:54.640> this<00:09:54.880> journey anywhere near through with this journey anywhere near through with this journey and<00:09:55.880> when<00:09:56.000> I<00:09:56.160> look<00:09:56.279> at<00:09:56.440> what<00:09:56.560> is<00:09:56.800> happening<00:09:57.160> to and when I look at what is happening to and when I look at what is happening to our<00:09:57.560> economies<00:09:58.000> and<00:09:58.160> our<00:09:58.399> societies<00:09:59.160> uh<00:09:59.440> my our economies and our societies uh my our economies and our societies uh my single<00:09:59.959> conclusion<00:10:00.560> is<00:10:00.760> that<00:10:00.959> we<00:10:01.120> ain't<00:10:01.360> seen single conclusion is that we ain't seen single conclusion is that we ain't seen nothing<00:10:02.160> yet<00:10:02.399> the<00:10:02.560> best<00:10:02.800> days<00:10:03.000> are<00:10:03.240> really nothing yet the best days are really nothing yet the best days are really ahead<00:10:04.160> let<00:10:04.240> me<00:10:04.399> give<00:10:04.519> you<00:10:04.760> a<00:10:04.880> couple<00:10:05.320> examples ahead let me give you a couple examples ahead let me give you a couple examples economies<00:10:06.680> don't<00:10:06.880> run<00:10:07.360> on<00:10:07.760> energy<00:10:08.760> they<00:10:08.880> don't economies don't run on energy they don't economies don't run on energy they don't run<00:10:09.480> on<00:10:09.920> Capital<00:10:10.360> they<00:10:10.440> don't<00:10:10.640> run<00:10:10.880> on<00:10:11.040> labor run on Capital they don't run on labor run on Capital they don't run on labor economies<00:10:12.279> run<00:10:12.760> on<00:10:13.200> ideas<00:10:14.000> so<00:10:14.160> the<00:10:14.279> work<00:10:14.480> of economies run on ideas so the work of economies run on ideas so the work of innovation<00:10:15.360> the<00:10:15.480> work<00:10:15.640> of<00:10:15.839> coming<00:10:16.120> up<00:10:16.320> with innovation the work of coming up with innovation the work of coming up with new<00:10:16.760> ideas<00:10:17.480> is<00:10:17.640> some<00:10:17.760> of<00:10:17.880> the<00:10:18.040> most<00:10:18.360> powerful new ideas is some of the most powerful new ideas is some of the most powerful some<00:10:18.920> of<00:10:19.040> the<00:10:19.160> most<00:10:19.320> fundamental<00:10:19.920> work<00:10:20.240> that some of the most fundamental work that some of the most fundamental work that we<00:10:20.519> can<00:10:20.720> do<00:10:21.079> in<00:10:21.240> an<00:10:21.480> economy<00:10:22.360> and<00:10:22.760> um<00:10:23.120> this<00:10:23.240> is we can do in an economy and um this is we can do in an economy and um this is kind<00:10:23.560> of<00:10:23.680> how<00:10:23.800> we<00:10:23.880> used<00:10:24.079> to<00:10:24.200> do<00:10:24.440> Innovation kind of how we used to do Innovation kind of how we used to do Innovation we'd<00:10:25.640> find<00:10:25.839> a<00:10:26.000> bunch<00:10:26.200> of<00:10:26.519> Fairly<00:10:26.920> similarl we'd find a bunch of Fairly similarl we'd find a bunch of Fairly similarl looking looking looking people



we'd<00:10:32.240> take<00:10:32.399> them<00:10:32.560> out<00:10:32.680> of<00:10:32.800> elite<00:10:33.160> institutions
we'd take them out of elite institutions we'd take them out of elite institutions we'd<00:10:34.040> put<00:10:34.160> them<00:10:34.279> into<00:10:34.519> other<00:10:34.720> Elite we'd put them into other Elite we'd put them into other Elite institutions<00:10:35.600> and<00:10:35.720> we'd<00:10:35.920> wait<00:10:36.079> for<00:10:36.240> the institutions and we'd wait for the institutions and we'd wait for the Innovation



now<00:10:41.399> as<00:10:41.480> a<00:10:41.680> white<00:10:41.959> guy<00:10:42.160> who<00:10:42.320> spent<00:10:42.639> his<00:10:42.800> whole
now as a white guy who spent his whole now as a white guy who spent his whole career<00:10:43.279> at<00:10:43.440> MIT<00:10:43.880> in<00:10:44.040> Harvard<00:10:44.880> I<00:10:45.000> got<00:10:45.279> no career at MIT in Harvard I got no career at MIT in Harvard I got no problem<00:10:45.959> with



this<00:10:50.560> but<00:10:50.720> some<00:10:50.920> other<00:10:51.160> people<00:10:51.399> do<00:10:51.639> and
this but some other people do and this but some other people do and they've<00:10:51.959> kind<00:10:52.079> of<00:10:52.320> crashed<00:10:52.760> the<00:10:52.920> party<00:10:53.279> and they've kind of crashed the party and they've kind of crashed the party and loosened<00:10:53.839> up<00:10:53.959> the<00:10:54.079> dress<00:10:54.399> code<00:10:54.600> of loosened up the dress code of loosened up the dress code of innovation<00:10:56.800> so<00:10:57.000> here<00:10:57.120> are<00:10:57.279> the<00:10:57.399> winners<00:10:57.800> of<00:10:57.920> a innovation so here are the winners of a innovation so here are the winners of a top<00:10:58.279> quarter<00:10:58.680> programming<00:10:59.399> Challenge<00:10:59.920> and<00:11:00.200> I top quarter programming Challenge and I top quarter programming Challenge and I assure<00:11:00.959> you<00:11:01.360> that<00:11:01.600> nobody<00:11:02.200> cares<00:11:02.800> where<00:11:03.079> these assure you that nobody cares where these assure you that nobody cares where these kids<00:11:04.040> grew<00:11:04.320> up<00:11:05.120> where<00:11:05.320> they<00:11:05.440> went<00:11:05.639> to<00:11:05.920> school kids grew up where they went to school kids grew up where they went to school or<00:11:06.720> what<00:11:06.880> they<00:11:07.040> look<00:11:07.440> like<00:11:08.079> all<00:11:08.320> anyone<00:11:08.720> cares or what they look like all anyone cares or what they look like all anyone cares about<00:11:09.240> is<00:11:09.399> the<00:11:09.560> quality<00:11:09.880> of<00:11:10.000> the<00:11:10.120> work<00:11:10.440> the about is the quality of the work the about is the quality of the work the quality<00:11:10.920> of<00:11:11.040> the<00:11:11.240> ideas<00:11:11.959> and<00:11:12.160> over<00:11:12.360> and<00:11:12.600> over quality of the ideas and over and over quality of the ideas and over and over again<00:11:13.240> we<00:11:13.360> see<00:11:13.680> this<00:11:13.920> happening<00:11:14.320> in<00:11:14.480> the again we see this happening in the again we see this happening in the technology<00:11:15.360> facilitated<00:11:16.120> world<00:11:16.720> the<00:11:16.839> work<00:11:17.000> of technology facilitated world the work of technology facilitated world the work of innovation<00:11:17.680> is<00:11:17.839> becoming<00:11:18.200> more<00:11:18.440> open<00:11:19.240> more innovation is becoming more open more innovation is becoming more open more inclusive<00:11:20.519> more<00:11:20.839> transparent<00:11:21.600> and<00:11:21.760> more inclusive more transparent and more inclusive more transparent and more merit-based<00:11:22.480> and<00:11:23.079> that's<00:11:23.279> going<00:11:23.399> to<00:11:23.560> continue merit-based and that's going to continue merit-based and that's going to continue no<00:11:24.279> matter<00:11:24.639> what<00:11:24.839> MIT<00:11:25.320> and<00:11:25.519> Harvard<00:11:25.920> think<00:11:26.160> of no matter what MIT and Harvard think of no matter what MIT and Harvard think of it<00:11:26.600> and<00:11:26.720> I<00:11:26.839> couldn't<00:11:27.079> be<00:11:27.320> happier<00:11:27.720> about<00:11:28.040> that it and I couldn't be happier about that it and I couldn't be happier about that development<00:11:29.560> I<00:11:29.680> hear<00:11:29.920> once<00:11:30.079> in<00:11:30.200> a<00:11:30.360> while<00:11:30.800> okay development I hear once in a while okay development I hear once in a while okay I'll<00:11:31.160> grant<00:11:31.399> you<00:11:31.600> that<00:11:32.079> but<00:11:32.320> but<00:11:32.600> technology I'll grant you that but but technology I'll grant you that but but technology is<00:11:33.279> still<00:11:33.440> a<00:11:33.600> tool<00:11:33.920> for<00:11:34.120> the<00:11:34.279> rich<00:11:34.600> world<00:11:35.200> and is still a tool for the rich world and is still a tool for the rich world and what's<00:11:35.800> not<00:11:36.079> happening<00:11:36.480> these<00:11:36.680> digital<00:11:37.000> tools what's not happening these digital tools what's not happening these digital tools are<00:11:37.920> not<00:11:38.240> improving<00:11:38.720> the<00:11:38.880> lives<00:11:39.120> of<00:11:39.360> people<00:11:39.720> at are not improving the lives of people at are not improving the lives of people at the<00:11:40.000> bottom<00:11:40.240> of<00:11:40.360> the<00:11:40.519> pyramid<00:11:41.279> and<00:11:41.440> I<00:11:41.519> want<00:11:41.639> to the bottom of the pyramid and I want to the bottom of the pyramid and I want to say<00:11:41.880> to<00:11:42.040> that<00:11:42.240> very<00:11:42.480> clearly<00:11:43.480> nonsense<00:11:44.079> the say to that very clearly nonsense the say to that very clearly nonsense the bottom<00:11:44.440> of<00:11:44.560> the<00:11:44.680> pyramid<00:11:45.000> is<00:11:45.200> benefiting bottom of the pyramid is benefiting bottom of the pyramid is benefiting hugely<00:11:46.279> from<00:11:46.600> technology<00:11:47.519> The<00:11:47.720> Economist hugely from technology The Economist hugely from technology The Economist Robert<00:11:48.480> Jensen<00:11:48.920> did<00:11:49.160> this<00:11:49.440> wonderful<00:11:49.920> study<00:11:50.240> a Robert Jensen did this wonderful study a Robert Jensen did this wonderful study a while<00:11:50.639> back<00:11:51.120> where<00:11:51.360> he<00:11:51.720> watched<00:11:52.160> in<00:11:52.399> great while back where he watched in great while back where he watched in great detail<00:11:53.279> what<00:11:53.519> happened<00:11:53.839> to<00:11:54.000> the<00:11:54.120> fishing detail what happened to the fishing detail what happened to the fishing villages<00:11:55.079> of<00:11:55.279> kerola<00:11:55.800> India<00:11:56.639> when<00:11:56.800> they<00:11:56.959> got villages of kerola India when they got villages of kerola India when they got mobile<00:11:57.480> phones<00:11:57.920> for<00:11:58.079> the<00:11:58.279> very<00:11:58.560> first<00:11:58.920> time mobile phones for the very first time mobile phones for the very first time and<00:11:59.880> when<00:12:00.040> you<00:12:00.160> write<00:12:00.360> for<00:12:00.519> the<00:12:00.639> quarterly and when you write for the quarterly and when you write for the quarterly Journal<00:12:01.399> of<00:12:01.560> Economics<00:12:02.079> you<00:12:02.200> have<00:12:02.320> to<00:12:02.440> use Journal of Economics you have to use Journal of Economics you have to use very<00:12:03.000> dry<00:12:03.519> and<00:12:03.680> very<00:12:03.920> circumspect<00:12:04.680> language very dry and very circumspect language very dry and very circumspect language but<00:12:05.440> when<00:12:05.560> I<00:12:05.680> read<00:12:05.880> his<00:12:06.079> paper<00:12:06.399> I<00:12:06.519> kind<00:12:06.639> of<00:12:06.760> feel but when I read his paper I kind of feel but when I read his paper I kind of feel Jenson<00:12:07.440> is<00:12:07.560> trying<00:12:07.760> to<00:12:07.920> scream<00:12:08.279> at<00:12:08.399> us<00:12:08.560> and<00:12:08.680> say Jenson is trying to scream at us and say Jenson is trying to scream at us and say look<00:12:09.320> this<00:12:09.480> was<00:12:09.639> a<00:12:09.880> big<00:12:10.320> deal<00:12:11.320> prices look this was a big deal prices look this was a big deal prices stabilized<00:12:12.480> so<00:12:12.639> people<00:12:12.839> could<00:12:13.079> plan<00:12:13.399> their stabilized so people could plan their stabilized so people could plan their economic<00:12:14.279> lives<00:12:14.880> waste<00:12:15.480> was<00:12:15.720> not<00:12:16.120> reduced<00:12:16.839> it economic lives waste was not reduced it economic lives waste was not reduced it was<00:12:17.959> eliminated<00:12:18.959> and<00:12:19.120> the<00:12:19.320> lives<00:12:19.680> of<00:12:19.880> both<00:12:20.079> the was eliminated and the lives of both the was eliminated and the lives of both the buyers<00:12:20.680> and<00:12:20.839> the<00:12:20.959> sellers<00:12:21.440> in<00:12:21.600> these<00:12:21.800> Villages buyers and the sellers in these Villages buyers and the sellers in these Villages measurably<00:12:23.199> improved<00:12:24.120> now<00:12:24.560> what<00:12:24.720> I<00:12:24.839> don't measurably improved now what I don't measurably improved now what I don't think<00:12:25.959> is<00:12:26.160> that<00:12:26.320> Jensen<00:12:26.839> got<00:12:27.040> extremely<00:12:27.519> lucky think is that Jensen got extremely lucky think is that Jensen got extremely lucky and<00:12:28.040> happened<00:12:28.279> to<00:12:28.399> land<00:12:28.600> in<00:12:28.720> the<00:12:28.839> on<00:12:29.199> set<00:12:29.320> of and happened to land in the on set of and happened to land in the on set of villages<00:12:29.880> where<00:12:30.079> technology<00:12:30.680> made<00:12:30.959> things villages where technology made things villages where technology made things better<00:12:32.399> what<00:12:32.560> happened<00:12:32.920> instead<00:12:33.360> is<00:12:33.560> he<00:12:33.760> very better what happened instead is he very better what happened instead is he very carefully<00:12:34.480> documented<00:12:35.079> what<00:12:35.240> happens<00:12:35.720> over carefully documented what happens over carefully documented what happens over and<00:12:36.240> over<00:12:36.600> again<00:12:37.199> when<00:12:37.440> technology<00:12:38.040> comes<00:12:38.320> for and over again when technology comes for and over again when technology comes for the<00:12:38.680> first<00:12:38.920> time<00:12:39.079> to<00:12:39.279> an<00:12:39.480> environment<00:12:39.959> and<00:12:40.120> a the first time to an environment and a the first time to an environment and a community<00:12:41.079> the<00:12:41.240> lives<00:12:41.519> of<00:12:41.720> people<00:12:42.079> The<00:12:42.279> Well community the lives of people The Well community the lives of people The Well welfares<00:12:42.959> of<00:12:43.120> people<00:12:43.440> improve<00:12:43.920> dramatically welfares of people improve dramatically welfares of people improve dramatically so<00:12:45.160> as<00:12:45.240> I<00:12:45.360> look<00:12:45.560> around<00:12:45.760> at<00:12:45.920> all<00:12:46.040> the<00:12:46.160> evidence so as I look around at all the evidence so as I look around at all the evidence and<00:12:46.639> I<00:12:46.760> think<00:12:46.959> about<00:12:47.240> the<00:12:47.440> the<00:12:47.519> room<00:12:47.880> that<00:12:48.040> we and I think about the the room that we and I think about the the room that we have<00:12:48.440> ahead<00:12:48.639> of<00:12:48.760> us<00:12:49.120> I<00:12:49.279> become<00:12:49.519> a<00:12:49.720> huge<00:12:50.079> digital have ahead of us I become a huge digital have ahead of us I become a huge digital Optimist<00:12:51.199> and<00:12:51.320> I<00:12:51.440> start<00:12:51.639> to<00:12:51.839> think<00:12:52.040> that<00:12:52.279> this Optimist and I start to think that this Optimist and I start to think that this wonderful<00:12:53.360> statement<00:12:53.920> from<00:12:54.160> the<00:12:54.399> physicist wonderful statement from the physicist wonderful statement from the physicist Freeman<00:12:55.199> Dyson<00:12:55.800> is<00:12:56.040> actually<00:12:56.320> not<00:12:56.600> hyperbole Freeman Dyson is actually not hyperbole Freeman Dyson is actually not hyperbole this<00:12:57.720> is<00:12:57.880> an<00:12:58.120> accurate<00:12:58.519> assessment<00:12:58.880> of<00:12:59.000> what this is an accurate assessment of what this is an accurate assessment of what what's<00:12:59.480> going<00:12:59.720> on<00:13:00.040> our<00:13:00.240> digital<00:13:00.680> our what's going on our digital our what's going on our digital our Technologies<00:13:01.480> are<00:13:01.800> great<00:13:02.199> gifts<00:13:02.839> and<00:13:03.160> we Technologies are great gifts and we Technologies are great gifts and we right<00:13:03.800> now<00:13:04.079> have<00:13:04.279> the<00:13:04.440> great<00:13:04.720> Good<00:13:04.959> Fortune<00:13:05.800> to right now have the great Good Fortune to right now have the great Good Fortune to be<00:13:06.079> living<00:13:06.399> at<00:13:06.560> a<00:13:06.760> time<00:13:07.079> when<00:13:07.360> digital be living at a time when digital be living at a time when digital technology<00:13:08.480> is<00:13:08.680> flourishing<00:13:09.639> when<00:13:09.760> it<00:13:09.880> is technology is flourishing when it is technology is flourishing when it is broadening<00:13:10.519> and<00:13:10.680> deepening<00:13:11.079> and<00:13:11.240> being broadening and deepening and being broadening and deepening and being becoming<00:13:12.120> more<00:13:12.440> profound<00:13:13.040> all<00:13:13.199> around<00:13:13.519> the becoming more profound all around the becoming more profound all around the world<00:13:14.440> so<00:13:14.959> yeah<00:13:15.399> the<00:13:15.600> the<00:13:15.760> droids<00:13:16.199> are<00:13:16.399> taking world so yeah the the droids are taking world so yeah the the droids are taking our<00:13:16.959> jobs<00:13:17.720> but<00:13:17.959> focusing<00:13:18.440> on<00:13:18.720> that<00:13:19.000> fact our jobs but focusing on that fact our jobs but focusing on that fact misses<00:13:19.760> the<00:13:19.959> point<00:13:20.399> entirely<00:13:21.320> the<00:13:21.480> point<00:13:21.720> is misses the point entirely the point is misses the point entirely the point is that<00:13:22.120> then<00:13:22.320> we<00:13:22.519> are<00:13:22.680> freed<00:13:23.079> up<00:13:23.279> to<00:13:23.440> do<00:13:23.680> other that then we are freed up to do other that then we are freed up to do other things<00:13:24.760> and<00:13:24.920> what<00:13:25.040> we're<00:13:25.279> going<00:13:25.440> to<00:13:25.560> do<00:13:25.800> I<00:13:25.920> am things and what we're going to do I am things and what we're going to do I am very<00:13:26.560> confident<00:13:27.120> what<00:13:27.240> we're<00:13:27.440> going<00:13:27.600> to<00:13:27.760> do<00:13:28.079> is very confident what we're going to do is very confident what we're going to do is reduce<00:13:28.800> poverty<00:13:29.279> Y<00:13:29.639> and<00:13:29.800> drudgery<00:13:30.519> and<00:13:30.720> misery reduce poverty Y and drudgery and misery reduce poverty Y and drudgery and misery around<00:13:31.440> the<00:13:31.560> world<00:13:32.120> I'm<00:13:32.320> very<00:13:32.560> confident around the world I'm very confident around the world I'm very confident we're<00:13:33.160> going<00:13:33.279> to<00:13:33.440> learn<00:13:33.760> to<00:13:33.959> live<00:13:34.199> more we're going to learn to live more we're going to learn to live more lightly<00:13:34.839> on<00:13:35.040> the<00:13:35.279> planet<00:13:36.279> and<00:13:37.279> I<00:13:37.360> am<00:13:37.519> extremely lightly on the planet and I am extremely lightly on the planet and I am extremely confident<00:13:38.639> that<00:13:38.800> what<00:13:38.920> we're<00:13:39.120> going<00:13:39.240> to<00:13:39.399> do confident that what we're going to do confident that what we're going to do with<00:13:39.760> our<00:13:39.920> new<00:13:40.160> digital<00:13:40.519> tools<00:13:41.000> is<00:13:41.120> going<00:13:41.240> to with our new digital tools is going to with our new digital tools is going to be<00:13:41.519> so<00:13:41.800> profound<00:13:42.600> and<00:13:42.760> so<00:13:43.040> beneficial<00:13:44.040> that be so profound and so beneficial that be so profound and so beneficial that it's<00:13:44.320> going<00:13:44.399> to<00:13:44.519> make<00:13:44.639> a<00:13:44.800> mockery<00:13:45.519> out<00:13:45.639> of it's going to make a mockery out of it's going to make a mockery out of everything<00:13:46.279> that<00:13:46.519> came<00:13:46.800> before<00:13:47.519> I'm<00:13:47.600> going<00:13:47.720> to everything that came before I'm going to everything that came before I'm going to leave<00:13:48.000> the<00:13:48.199> last<00:13:48.440> word<00:13:48.760> to<00:13:49.040> a<00:13:49.240> guy<00:13:49.360> who<00:13:49.480> had<00:13:49.600> a leave the last word to a guy who had a leave the last word to a guy who had a front<00:13:49.959> row<00:13:50.160> seat<00:13:50.399> for<00:13:50.639> digital<00:13:51.079> progress<00:13:51.720> our front row seat for digital progress our front row seat for digital progress our old<00:13:52.120> friend<00:13:52.440> Ken<00:13:52.680> Jennings<00:13:53.480> um<00:13:53.680> I'm<00:13:53.839> with<00:13:54.000> him old friend Ken Jennings um I'm with him old friend Ken Jennings um I'm with him I'm<00:13:54.240> going<00:13:54.320> to<00:13:54.440> Echo<00:13:54.759> his<00:13:54.959> words<00:13:55.639> I<00:13:55.800> for<00:13:56.079> one I'm going to Echo his words I for one I'm going to Echo his words I for one welcome<00:13:56.959> our<00:13:57.160> new<00:13:57.519> computer<00:13:58.040> overlords welcome our new computer overlords welcome our new computer overlords thanks<00:13:59.800> very thanks very thanks very [Applause]



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Andrew McAfee, droids, jobs, TED, TEDx, TEDxBoston, TED, Ed, TEDEducation, TED-Ed

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