Unintended consequences - Edward Tenner
I<00:00:15.410> didn't<00:00:16.410> always<00:00:16.529> love<00:00:16.890> unintended
I didn't always love unintended
I didn't always love unintended
consequences<00:00:18.330> but<00:00:18.540> I<00:00:18.720> really<00:00:19.080> learned<00:00:19.349> to
consequences but I really learned to
consequences but I really learned to
appreciate<00:00:19.770> them<00:00:20.340> I've<00:00:20.849> learned<00:00:21.480> that
appreciate them I've learned that
appreciate them I've learned that
they're<00:00:21.900> really<00:00:22.050> the<00:00:22.410> essence<00:00:22.950> of<00:00:23.070> what<00:00:23.310> makes
they're really the essence of what makes
they're really the essence of what makes
for<00:00:24.510> progress<00:00:24.990> even<00:00:25.230> when<00:00:25.560> they<00:00:25.710> seem<00:00:26.130> to<00:00:26.400> be
for progress even when they seem to be
for progress even when they seem to be
terrible<00:00:26.940> and<00:00:27.180> I'd<00:00:27.660> like<00:00:27.810> to<00:00:27.869> review<00:00:28.789> just<00:00:29.789> how
terrible and I'd like to review just how
terrible and I'd like to review just how
unintended<00:00:30.960> consequences<00:00:31.859> play<00:00:32.760> the<00:00:33.030> part
unintended consequences play the part
unintended consequences play the part
that<00:00:33.750> they<00:00:33.870> do<00:00:34.699> let's<00:00:35.699> go<00:00:36.000> to<00:00:36.750> 40,000<00:00:37.650> years
that they do let's go to 40,000 years
that they do let's go to 40,000 years
before<00:00:38.970> the<00:00:39.090> present<00:00:39.739> to<00:00:40.739> the<00:00:40.950> time<00:00:41.190> of<00:00:41.450> the
before the present to the time of the
before the present to the time of the
cultural<00:00:42.930> explosion<00:00:43.850> when<00:00:45.770> music<00:00:46.770> art
cultural explosion when music art
cultural explosion when music art
technology<00:00:48.899> so<00:00:49.800> many<00:00:49.980> of<00:00:50.100> the<00:00:50.190> things<00:00:50.399> that
technology so many of the things that
technology so many of the things that
we're<00:00:50.760> enjoying<00:00:51.120> today<00:00:51.570> so<00:00:51.629> many<00:00:51.930> of<00:00:52.079> the
we're enjoying today so many of the
we're enjoying today so many of the
things<00:00:52.320> that<00:00:52.829> are<00:00:53.039> being<00:00:53.660> demonstrated<00:00:54.660> at
things that are being demonstrated at
things that are being demonstrated at
Ted<00:00:55.410> were<00:00:55.620> born<00:00:55.950> and<00:00:56.780> the<00:00:57.780> anthropologist
Ted were born and the anthropologist
Ted were born and the anthropologist
Randall<00:00:59.699> White<00:00:59.910> has<00:01:00.149> made<00:01:00.329> a<00:01:00.360> very
Randall White has made a very
Randall White has made a very
interesting<00:01:00.960> observation<00:01:01.940> that<00:01:02.940> if<00:01:03.059> our
interesting observation that if our
interesting observation that if our
ancestors<00:01:03.629> forty<00:01:04.559> thousand<00:01:05.039> years<00:01:05.250> ago<00:01:06.170> had
ancestors forty thousand years ago had
ancestors forty thousand years ago had
been<00:01:07.200> able<00:01:07.979> to<00:01:08.130> see<00:01:08.630> what<00:01:09.630> they<00:01:10.050> had<00:01:10.440> done<00:01:11.780> they
been able to see what they had done they
been able to see what they had done they
wouldn't<00:01:13.080> have<00:01:13.200> really<00:01:13.320> understood<00:01:13.950> it<00:01:14.010> they
wouldn't have really understood it they
wouldn't have really understood it they
were<00:01:14.340> responding<00:01:14.970> to<00:01:15.680> immediate<00:01:16.680> concerns
were responding to immediate concerns
were responding to immediate concerns
they<00:01:18.689> were<00:01:19.070> making<00:01:20.070> it<00:01:20.189> possible<00:01:20.700> for<00:01:20.760> us<00:01:20.970> to
they were making it possible for us to
they were making it possible for us to
do<00:01:21.510> what<00:01:21.659> they<00:01:21.810> do<00:01:21.869> and<00:01:22.020> yet<00:01:22.850> they<00:01:23.850> didn't
do what they do and yet they didn't
do what they do and yet they didn't
really<00:01:24.270> understand<00:01:24.990> how<00:01:25.200> they<00:01:25.409> did<00:01:25.619> it
really understand how they did it
really understand how they did it
now<00:01:27.390> let's<00:01:27.600> advance<00:01:28.070> to<00:01:29.070> 10,000<00:01:29.759> years<00:01:29.790> before
now let's advance to 10,000 years before
now let's advance to 10,000 years before
the<00:01:30.479> present<00:01:30.900> and<00:01:31.140> this<00:01:31.860> is<00:01:32.009> when<00:01:32.189> it<00:01:32.310> really
the present and this is when it really
the present and this is when it really
gets<00:01:32.820> interesting<00:01:33.140> what<00:01:34.140> about<00:01:34.409> the
gets interesting what about the
gets interesting what about the
domestication<00:01:35.759> of<00:01:36.030> grains<00:01:36.360> what<00:01:36.689> about<00:01:36.960> the
domestication of grains what about the
domestication of grains what about the
origins<00:01:37.650> of<00:01:37.829> Agriculture
origins of Agriculture
origins of Agriculture
what<00:01:39.720> would<00:01:39.900> our<00:01:40.020> ancestors<00:01:41.090> 10,000<00:01:42.090> years
what would our ancestors 10,000 years
what would our ancestors 10,000 years
ago<00:01:42.659> have<00:01:42.960> said<00:01:43.290> if<00:01:43.619> they<00:01:44.159> really<00:01:44.310> had
ago have said if they really had
ago have said if they really had
technology<00:01:45.270> assessment<00:01:45.900> and<00:01:46.860> I<00:01:47.070> can<00:01:47.220> just
technology assessment and I can just
technology assessment and I can just
imagine<00:01:47.520> the<00:01:47.909> committee's<00:01:48.509> reporting<00:01:49.320> back
imagine the committee's reporting back
imagine the committee's reporting back
to<00:01:49.740> them<00:01:49.920> on<00:01:50.420> where<00:01:51.420> agriculture<00:01:52.320> was<00:01:52.500> going
to them on where agriculture was going
to them on where agriculture was going
to<00:01:52.829> take<00:01:53.040> humanity<00:01:53.369> at<00:01:53.850> least<00:01:54.060> in<00:01:54.299> the<00:01:54.420> next
to take humanity at least in the next
to take humanity at least in the next
few<00:01:54.960> hundred<00:01:54.990> years<00:01:55.549> it<00:01:56.549> was<00:01:56.790> really<00:01:56.820> bad<00:01:57.420> news
few hundred years it was really bad news
few hundred years it was really bad news
first<00:01:58.140> of<00:01:58.320> all<00:01:58.470> worse<00:01:58.920> nutrition<00:01:59.930> maybe
first of all worse nutrition maybe
first of all worse nutrition maybe
shorter<00:02:01.439> lifespans<00:02:02.130> it<00:02:02.909> was<00:02:03.180> simply<00:02:03.720> awful
shorter lifespans it was simply awful
shorter lifespans it was simply awful
for<00:02:04.380> women<00:02:04.680> the<00:02:04.950> skeletal<00:02:05.520> remains<00:02:05.549> from<00:02:06.270> that
for women the skeletal remains from that
for women the skeletal remains from that
period<00:02:06.689> have<00:02:07.020> shown<00:02:07.290> that<00:02:07.590> they<00:02:07.770> were
period have shown that they were
period have shown that they were
grinding<00:02:08.420> grain<00:02:09.440> morning<00:02:10.440> noon<00:02:10.619> and<00:02:10.829> night
grinding grain morning noon and night
grinding grain morning noon and night
and<00:02:11.930> politically<00:02:12.930> it<00:02:13.320> was<00:02:13.560> awful<00:02:14.010> it<00:02:14.250> was<00:02:14.700> the
and politically it was awful it was the
and politically it was awful it was the
beginning<00:02:15.360> of<00:02:15.510> a<00:02:15.570> much<00:02:16.560> higher<00:02:16.590> degree<00:02:17.040> of
beginning of a much higher degree of
beginning of a much higher degree of
inequality<00:02:18.060> among<00:02:19.050> people<00:02:19.860> if<00:02:20.400> there<00:02:20.879> had
inequality among people if there had
inequality among people if there had
been<00:02:21.000> rational
been rational
been rational
technology<00:02:22.170> assessment<00:02:22.800> then<00:02:22.980> I<00:02:23.280> think<00:02:23.940> they
technology assessment then I think they
technology assessment then I think they
very<00:02:24.270> well<00:02:24.420> might<00:02:24.840> have<00:02:24.870> said<00:02:25.230> let's<00:02:25.920> call<00:02:26.130> the
very well might have said let's call the
very well might have said let's call the
whole<00:02:26.460> thing<00:02:26.490> off<00:02:28.520> even<00:02:29.520> now<00:02:29.700> our<00:02:30.060> choices<00:02:30.540> are
whole thing off even now our choices are
whole thing off even now our choices are
having<00:02:31.200> unintended<00:02:31.740> effects<00:02:32.310> historically
having unintended effects historically
having unintended effects historically
for<00:02:33.540> example<00:02:34.080> chopsticks<00:02:34.980> according<00:02:35.970> to<00:02:36.150> one
for example chopsticks according to one
for example chopsticks according to one
Japanese<00:02:37.290> anthropologist<00:02:38.280> who<00:02:38.400> wrote<00:02:38.550> a
Japanese anthropologist who wrote a
Japanese anthropologist who wrote a
dissertation<00:02:38.970> about<00:02:39.570> it<00:02:39.750> at<00:02:39.900> the<00:02:40.020> University
dissertation about it at the University
dissertation about it at the University
of<00:02:40.680> Michigan<00:02:41.390> resulted<00:02:42.390> in<00:02:42.570> long-term
of Michigan resulted in long-term
of Michigan resulted in long-term
changes<00:02:44.160> in<00:02:44.220> the<00:02:44.870> dentition<00:02:45.870> in<00:02:46.230> the<00:02:46.380> teeth<00:02:46.709> of
changes in the dentition in the teeth of
changes in the dentition in the teeth of
the<00:02:47.100> Japanese<00:02:47.880> public<00:02:48.390> and<00:02:48.660> we<00:02:49.410> are<00:02:49.560> also
the Japanese public and we are also
the Japanese public and we are also
changing<00:02:50.370> our<00:02:50.490> teeth<00:02:50.700> right<00:02:50.970> now<00:02:51.180> there<00:02:51.570> there
changing our teeth right now there there
changing our teeth right now there there
is<00:02:52.020> evidence<00:02:52.470> that<00:02:52.650> the<00:02:53.070> human<00:02:53.459> mouth<00:02:53.910> and
is evidence that the human mouth and
is evidence that the human mouth and
teeth<00:02:54.810> are<00:02:55.100> growing<00:02:56.100> smaller<00:02:56.850> all<00:02:57.150> the<00:02:57.330> time
teeth are growing smaller all the time
teeth are growing smaller all the time
that's<00:02:57.660> not<00:02:57.780> necessarily<00:02:58.500> a<00:02:58.530> bad<00:02:58.800> unintended
that's not necessarily a bad unintended
that's not necessarily a bad unintended
consequences<00:03:00.239> but<00:03:00.600> I<00:03:00.630> think<00:03:00.900> from<00:03:01.050> the<00:03:01.170> point
consequences but I think from the point
consequences but I think from the point
of<00:03:01.500> view<00:03:01.560> of<00:03:01.860> a<00:03:01.980> Neanderthal<00:03:02.190> there<00:03:03.120> would
of view of a Neanderthal there would
of view of a Neanderthal there would
have<00:03:03.540> been<00:03:03.720> a<00:03:03.750> lot<00:03:04.020> of<00:03:04.050> disapproval<00:03:04.860> of<00:03:04.980> the
have been a lot of disapproval of the
have been a lot of disapproval of the
wimpish<00:03:06.180> choppers<00:03:06.720> that<00:03:06.750> we<00:03:07.080> now<00:03:07.440> have<00:03:07.770> so
wimpish choppers that we now have so
wimpish choppers that we now have so
these<00:03:08.760> things<00:03:09.000> are<00:03:09.150> kind<00:03:09.750> of<00:03:09.870> relative<00:03:10.500> to
these things are kind of relative to
these things are kind of relative to
where<00:03:10.980> you're<00:03:11.370> you<00:03:12.000> or<00:03:12.239> your<00:03:12.480> your<00:03:12.840> ancestors
where you're you or your your ancestors
where you're you or your your ancestors
happen<00:03:13.920> to<00:03:14.040> stand<00:03:14.340> in<00:03:14.910> the<00:03:15.390> ancient<00:03:15.510> world
happen to stand in the ancient world
happen to stand in the ancient world
there<00:03:17.100> was<00:03:17.160> a<00:03:17.280> lot<00:03:17.489> of<00:03:17.610> respect<00:03:18.060> for
there was a lot of respect for
there was a lot of respect for
unintended<00:03:18.780> consequences<00:03:19.620> there<00:03:19.770> was<00:03:19.980> a<00:03:20.040> very
unintended consequences there was a very
unintended consequences there was a very
healthy<00:03:20.910> sense<00:03:21.570> of<00:03:21.750> caution<00:03:22.040> reflected<00:03:23.040> in
healthy sense of caution reflected in
healthy sense of caution reflected in
the<00:03:23.700> tree<00:03:23.910> of<00:03:24.060> knowledge<00:03:24.270> in<00:03:25.200> Pandora's<00:03:26.070> Box
the tree of knowledge in Pandora's Box
the tree of knowledge in Pandora's Box
and<00:03:26.790> especially<00:03:27.120> in<00:03:27.510> the<00:03:27.630> myth<00:03:27.840> of<00:03:27.989> Prometheus
and especially in the myth of Prometheus
and especially in the myth of Prometheus
that's<00:03:28.920> been<00:03:29.160> so<00:03:29.400> important<00:03:29.970> in<00:03:30.120> recent
that's been so important in recent
that's been so important in recent
metaphors<00:03:31.739> about<00:03:32.100> technology<00:03:32.820> and<00:03:33.000> that's
metaphors about technology and that's
metaphors about technology and that's
all<00:03:33.720> very<00:03:34.440> true<00:03:34.769> the<00:03:35.660> physicians<00:03:36.660> of<00:03:36.900> the
all very true the physicians of the
all very true the physicians of the
ancient<00:03:37.590> world<00:03:37.799> especially<00:03:38.100> the<00:03:38.760> Egyptians
ancient world especially the Egyptians
ancient world especially the Egyptians
who<00:03:39.480> started<00:03:40.100> medicine<00:03:41.100> as<00:03:41.310> we<00:03:41.610> know<00:03:41.850> it<00:03:42.000> were
who started medicine as we know it were
who started medicine as we know it were
very<00:03:42.780> conscious<00:03:43.110> of<00:03:43.560> what<00:03:43.620> they<00:03:43.920> could<00:03:43.980> and
very conscious of what they could and
very conscious of what they could and
couldn't<00:03:44.519> treat<00:03:45.209> and<00:03:45.540> the<00:03:45.900> translations<00:03:46.590> of
couldn't treat and the translations of
couldn't treat and the translations of
the<00:03:47.070> surviving<00:03:48.200> text<00:03:49.200> say<00:03:49.560> this<00:03:50.160> I<00:03:50.370> will<00:03:50.640> not
the surviving text say this I will not
the surviving text say this I will not
treat<00:03:51.150> this<00:03:51.329> I<00:03:51.510> cannot<00:03:51.900> treat<00:03:52.200> they<00:03:52.410> were<00:03:52.470> very
treat this I cannot treat they were very
treat this I cannot treat they were very
conscious<00:03:53.329> so<00:03:54.329> were<00:03:54.600> the<00:03:55.140> followers<00:03:55.560> of
conscious so were the followers of
conscious so were the followers of
Hippocrates<00:03:56.400> the<00:03:56.430> Hippocratic<00:03:57.299> manuscripts
Hippocrates the Hippocratic manuscripts
Hippocrates the Hippocratic manuscripts
also<00:03:58.970> repeatedly<00:03:59.970> according<00:04:00.390> to<00:04:00.690> recent
also repeatedly according to recent
also repeatedly according to recent
studies<00:04:01.230> so<00:04:01.980> how<00:04:02.310> important<00:04:02.850> it<00:04:02.970> is<00:04:03.000> not<00:04:03.299> to<00:04:03.690> do
studies so how important it is not to do
studies so how important it is not to do
harm
harm
harm
more<00:04:05.519> recently<00:04:06.650> Harvey<00:04:07.650> Cushing<00:04:07.920> who<00:04:08.310> really
more recently Harvey Cushing who really
more recently Harvey Cushing who really
developed<00:04:09.510> neurosurgery<00:04:10.260> as<00:04:10.500> we<00:04:10.680> know<00:04:10.920> it<00:04:11.070> who
developed neurosurgery as we know it who
developed neurosurgery as we know it who
changed<00:04:11.970> it<00:04:12.150> from<00:04:12.299> a<00:04:12.480> field<00:04:13.200> of<00:04:13.380> medicine<00:04:13.680> that
changed it from a field of medicine that
changed it from a field of medicine that
had<00:04:14.190> a<00:04:14.400> majority<00:04:15.360> of<00:04:15.390> deaths<00:04:16.109> resulting<00:04:16.890> from
had a majority of deaths resulting from
had a majority of deaths resulting from
surgery<00:04:17.519> to<00:04:17.790> one<00:04:17.970> in<00:04:18.150> which<00:04:18.329> there<00:04:18.930> was<00:04:19.169> a
surgery to one in which there was a
surgery to one in which there was a
hopeful<00:04:20.489> outlook<00:04:20.640> he<00:04:21.390> was<00:04:21.540> very<00:04:21.720> conscious
hopeful outlook he was very conscious
hopeful outlook he was very conscious
that<00:04:23.220> he<00:04:23.669> was<00:04:24.000> not<00:04:24.270> always<00:04:24.720> going<00:04:24.960> to<00:04:25.050> do<00:04:25.320> the
that he was not always going to do the
that he was not always going to do the
right<00:04:25.620> thing<00:04:25.919> but<00:04:26.100> he<00:04:26.370> did<00:04:27.120> his<00:04:27.270> best<00:04:27.510> and<00:04:27.750> he
right thing but he did his best and he
right thing but he did his best and he
kept<00:04:28.200> meticulous<00:04:28.410> records<00:04:29.310> that<00:04:29.460> let<00:04:29.640> him
kept meticulous records that let him
kept meticulous records that let him
transform
transform
transform
that<00:04:30.650> branch<00:04:30.890> of<00:04:31.100> medicine<00:04:32.410> now<00:04:33.410> if<00:04:33.740> we<00:04:34.010> look
that branch of medicine now if we look
that branch of medicine now if we look
forward<00:04:35.210> a<00:04:35.570> bit
forward a bit
forward a bit
to<00:04:36.230> the<00:04:36.350> 19th<00:04:36.800> century<00:04:37.190> we<00:04:37.460> find<00:04:37.730> a<00:04:38.000> new<00:04:38.510> style
to the 19th century we find a new style
to the 19th century we find a new style
of<00:04:39.050> technology<00:04:39.740> what<00:04:40.640> we<00:04:40.850> find<00:04:41.180> is<00:04:41.570> no<00:04:42.110> longer
of technology what we find is no longer
of technology what we find is no longer
simple<00:04:43.250> tools<00:04:43.780> but<00:04:44.780> systems<00:04:45.490> we<00:04:46.490> find<00:04:46.880> more
simple tools but systems we find more
simple tools but systems we find more
and<00:04:47.900> more<00:04:48.080> complex<00:04:48.800> arrangements<00:04:49.730> of
and more complex arrangements of
and more complex arrangements of
machines<00:04:50.660> that<00:04:51.590> make<00:04:51.770> it<00:04:51.920> harder<00:04:52.250> and<00:04:52.400> harder
machines that make it harder and harder
machines that make it harder and harder
to<00:04:53.090> diagnose<00:04:53.600> what's<00:04:53.960> going<00:04:54.350> on<00:04:54.530> and<00:04:54.800> the
to diagnose what's going on and the
to diagnose what's going on and the
first<00:04:55.310> people<00:04:55.640> who<00:04:56.060> saw<00:04:56.330> that<00:04:56.630> were<00:04:56.960> the
first people who saw that were the
first people who saw that were the
telegraphers<00:04:58.010> of<00:04:58.250> the<00:04:58.370> mid<00:04:58.550> 19th<00:04:58.970> century<00:04:59.090> who
telegraphers of the mid 19th century who
telegraphers of the mid 19th century who
were<00:04:59.930> the<00:05:00.080> original<00:05:00.110> hackers<00:05:01.180> Thomas<00:05:02.180> Edison
were the original hackers Thomas Edison
were the original hackers Thomas Edison
would<00:05:02.810> have<00:05:02.990> been<00:05:03.140> very<00:05:03.650> very<00:05:03.920> comfortable<00:05:04.220> in
would have been very very comfortable in
would have been very very comfortable in
the<00:05:05.330> atmosphere<00:05:05.960> of<00:05:05.990> a<00:05:06.440> software<00:05:06.890> firm<00:05:07.100> today
the atmosphere of a software firm today
the atmosphere of a software firm today
and<00:05:07.850> these<00:05:08.300> hackers<00:05:08.810> have<00:05:09.380> a<00:05:09.430> word<00:05:10.430> for<00:05:10.730> those
and these hackers have a word for those
and these hackers have a word for those
mysterious<00:05:11.330> bugs<00:05:11.870> and<00:05:12.290> telegraph<00:05:12.740> systems
mysterious bugs and telegraph systems
mysterious bugs and telegraph systems
that<00:05:14.030> they<00:05:14.270> called<00:05:14.600> bugs<00:05:15.260> that<00:05:15.770> was<00:05:16.040> the
that they called bugs that was the
that they called bugs that was the
origin<00:05:16.400> of<00:05:16.790> the<00:05:17.150> word<00:05:17.330> bug<00:05:19.060> this
origin of the word bug this
origin of the word bug this
consciousness<00:05:20.930> though<00:05:21.170> was<00:05:21.620> a<00:05:21.650> little<00:05:22.280> slow
consciousness though was a little slow
consciousness though was a little slow
to<00:05:22.790> seep<00:05:23.030> through<00:05:23.060> the<00:05:23.450> general<00:05:23.810> population
to seep through the general population
to seep through the general population
even<00:05:24.770> people<00:05:25.100> who<00:05:25.250> were<00:05:25.280> very<00:05:26.060> very
even people who were very very
even people who were very very
well-informed<00:05:27.220> Samuel<00:05:28.360> Clemens<00:05:29.360> Mark<00:05:29.930> Twain
well-informed Samuel Clemens Mark Twain
well-informed Samuel Clemens Mark Twain
was<00:05:30.740> a<00:05:30.770> big<00:05:31.010> investor<00:05:31.550> in<00:05:32.060> the<00:05:32.270> most<00:05:32.480> complex
was a big investor in the most complex
was a big investor in the most complex
machine<00:05:34.010> of<00:05:34.340> all<00:05:34.610> times<00:05:34.940> at<00:05:35.180> least<00:05:35.300> until<00:05:35.510> 1918
machine of all times at least until 1918
machine of all times at least until 1918
registered<00:05:37.370> with<00:05:37.580> the<00:05:37.669> US<00:05:37.970> Patent<00:05:38.419> Office
registered with the US Patent Office
registered with the US Patent Office
that<00:05:39.470> was<00:05:39.620> the<00:05:39.770> page<00:05:39.950> typesetter<00:05:40.640> the<00:05:41.390> page
that was the page typesetter the page
that was the page typesetter the page
type<00:05:41.990> setter<00:05:42.320> had<00:05:42.740> 18,000<00:05:43.669> parts<00:05:44.000> the<00:05:44.510> patent
type setter had 18,000 parts the patent
type setter had 18,000 parts the patent
had<00:05:46.160> 64<00:05:46.790> pages<00:05:47.030> of<00:05:47.360> text<00:05:47.600> and<00:05:49.090> 271<00:05:50.380> figures<00:05:51.729> it
had 64 pages of text and 271 figures it
had 64 pages of text and 271 figures it
was<00:05:52.790> such<00:05:53.120> a<00:05:53.150> beautiful<00:05:53.390> machine<00:05:53.930> because<00:05:54.200> it
was such a beautiful machine because it
was such a beautiful machine because it
did<00:05:54.560> everything<00:05:55.010> that<00:05:55.820> a<00:05:56.210> human<00:05:56.750> being<00:05:56.780> did
did everything that a human being did
did everything that a human being did
and<00:05:57.530> setting<00:05:57.830> type<00:05:58.040> including<00:05:58.729> returning<00:05:59.419> the
and setting type including returning the
and setting type including returning the
type<00:06:00.169> to<00:06:00.470> its<00:06:00.680> place<00:06:01.040> which<00:06:01.280> was<00:06:01.460> a<00:06:01.520> very
type to its place which was a very
type to its place which was a very
difficult<00:06:02.030> thing<00:06:02.300> and<00:06:02.570> Mark<00:06:02.810> Twain<00:06:02.990> who<00:06:03.229> knew
difficult thing and Mark Twain who knew
difficult thing and Mark Twain who knew
all<00:06:03.530> about<00:06:03.680> typesetting<00:06:04.340> really<00:06:05.330> was<00:06:05.660> was
all about typesetting really was was
all about typesetting really was was
smitten<00:06:06.530> by<00:06:06.830> this<00:06:06.890> machine<00:06:07.540> unfortunately<00:06:08.540> he
smitten by this machine unfortunately he
smitten by this machine unfortunately he
was<00:06:08.720> smitten<00:06:09.080> in<00:06:09.350> more<00:06:09.530> ways<00:06:09.710> than<00:06:09.770> one
was smitten in more ways than one
was smitten in more ways than one
because<00:06:10.460> it<00:06:10.700> made<00:06:11.690> him<00:06:11.870> bankrupt<00:06:12.110> and<00:06:12.560> he<00:06:12.620> had
because it made him bankrupt and he had
because it made him bankrupt and he had
to<00:06:12.919> tour<00:06:13.160> the<00:06:13.310> world<00:06:13.520> speaking<00:06:14.360> to<00:06:14.900> to<00:06:15.500> recoup
to tour the world speaking to to recoup
to tour the world speaking to to recoup
his<00:06:15.890> money<00:06:16.669> and<00:06:17.229> this<00:06:18.229> was<00:06:18.410> an<00:06:18.530> important
his money and this was an important
his money and this was an important
thing<00:06:19.130> about<00:06:19.310> 19th<00:06:19.880> century<00:06:20.380> technology<00:06:21.380> that
thing about 19th century technology that
thing about 19th century technology that
all<00:06:22.100> these<00:06:22.340> relationships<00:06:22.940> among<00:06:23.479> parts
all these relationships among parts
all these relationships among parts
could<00:06:24.110> make<00:06:24.320> the<00:06:24.500> most<00:06:24.650> brilliant<00:06:25.250> idea<00:06:25.690> fall
could make the most brilliant idea fall
could make the most brilliant idea fall
apart<00:06:27.080> even<00:06:27.740> when<00:06:27.919> judged<00:06:28.190> by<00:06:28.430> the<00:06:28.490> most
apart even when judged by the most
apart even when judged by the most
expert<00:06:29.210> people<00:06:29.390> now<00:06:30.229> there<00:06:30.410> was<00:06:30.500> something
expert people now there was something
expert people now there was something
else<00:06:31.040> though<00:06:31.370> in<00:06:31.640> the<00:06:31.910> early<00:06:32.300> 20th<00:06:32.750> century
else though in the early 20th century
else though in the early 20th century
that<00:06:33.470> made<00:06:33.620> things<00:06:33.860> even<00:06:34.040> more<00:06:34.340> complicated
that made things even more complicated
that made things even more complicated
and<00:06:35.270> that<00:06:35.300> was<00:06:36.110> that<00:06:36.580> safety<00:06:37.580> technology
and that was that safety technology
and that was that safety technology
itself<00:06:38.660> could<00:06:38.990> be<00:06:39.110> a<00:06:39.140> source<00:06:39.410> of<00:06:39.590> danger<00:06:40.039> the
itself could be a source of danger the
itself could be a source of danger the
lesson<00:06:40.700> of<00:06:40.789> the<00:06:40.880> Titanic<00:06:41.450> for
lesson of the Titanic for
lesson of the Titanic for
the<00:06:42.099> contemporaries<00:06:42.879> was<00:06:43.569> that<00:06:44.020> you<00:06:44.530> must
the contemporaries was that you must
the contemporaries was that you must
have<00:06:45.069> enough<00:06:45.340> lifeboats<00:06:45.639> for<00:06:46.090> everyone<00:06:46.689> on
have enough lifeboats for everyone on
have enough lifeboats for everyone on
the<00:06:46.990> ship<00:06:47.050> and<00:06:47.939> this<00:06:48.939> was<00:06:49.270> the<00:06:50.139> result<00:06:50.590> of<00:06:50.999> the
the ship and this was the result of the
the ship and this was the result of the
tragic<00:06:52.569> loss<00:06:52.779> of<00:06:52.960> lives<00:06:53.169> of<00:06:53.379> people<00:06:53.560> who<00:06:53.740> could
tragic loss of lives of people who could
tragic loss of lives of people who could
not<00:06:54.129> get<00:06:54.340> into<00:06:54.520> them<00:06:54.729> however<00:06:54.960> there<00:06:55.960> was
not get into them however there was
not get into them however there was
another<00:06:56.319> pace<00:06:56.590> the<00:06:56.800> Eastland<00:06:57.340> a<00:06:57.610> ship<00:06:57.909> that
another pace the Eastland a ship that
another pace the Eastland a ship that
capsized<00:06:58.689> in<00:06:58.960> Chicago<00:06:59.439> Harbor<00:06:59.860> in<00:07:01.139> 1915<00:07:02.139> and
capsized in Chicago Harbor in 1915 and
capsized in Chicago Harbor in 1915 and
it<00:07:02.919> killed<00:07:03.330> 841<00:07:04.330> people<00:07:04.930> that<00:07:05.110> was<00:07:05.259> 14<00:07:05.770> more
it killed 841 people that was 14 more
it killed 841 people that was 14 more
than<00:07:06.939> the<00:07:07.120> passenger<00:07:07.479> toll<00:07:07.840> of<00:07:08.050> the<00:07:08.080> Titanic
than the passenger toll of the Titanic
than the passenger toll of the Titanic
the<00:07:10.090> reason<00:07:10.569> for<00:07:10.840> it<00:07:10.960> in<00:07:11.110> part<00:07:11.379> was<00:07:11.680> the<00:07:11.979> extra
the reason for it in part was the extra
the reason for it in part was the extra
lifeboats<00:07:12.879> that<00:07:13.810> were<00:07:13.960> added<00:07:14.199> that<00:07:15.189> made<00:07:15.550> this
lifeboats that were added that made this
lifeboats that were added that made this
already<00:07:16.240> unstable<00:07:16.930> ship<00:07:17.500> even<00:07:18.159> more<00:07:18.610> unstable
already unstable ship even more unstable
already unstable ship even more unstable
and<00:07:19.860> that<00:07:20.860> again<00:07:21.099> proves<00:07:21.460> that<00:07:21.759> when<00:07:21.909> you're
and that again proves that when you're
and that again proves that when you're
talking<00:07:22.360> about<00:07:22.419> unintended<00:07:23.009> consequences
talking about unintended consequences
talking about unintended consequences
it's<00:07:24.520> not<00:07:24.819> that<00:07:25.210> easy<00:07:25.539> to<00:07:26.289> know<00:07:26.500> the<00:07:27.340> right
it's not that easy to know the right
it's not that easy to know the right
lessons<00:07:28.029> to<00:07:28.300> draw<00:07:28.509> it's<00:07:28.930> it's<00:07:29.229> really<00:07:29.409> a
lessons to draw it's it's really a
lessons to draw it's it's really a
question<00:07:29.830> of<00:07:30.159> the<00:07:30.340> system<00:07:30.789> how<00:07:31.000> the<00:07:31.029> ship<00:07:31.389> was
question of the system how the ship was
question of the system how the ship was
loaded<00:07:31.750> the<00:07:32.379> ballast<00:07:32.800> and<00:07:33.009> many<00:07:33.460> other<00:07:33.699> things
loaded the ballast and many other things
loaded the ballast and many other things
so<00:07:35.849> the<00:07:36.849> 20th<00:07:37.330> century<00:07:37.750> then<00:07:38.080> saw<00:07:38.740> how<00:07:39.129> much
so the 20th century then saw how much
so the 20th century then saw how much
more<00:07:39.580> complex<00:07:40.029> reality<00:07:40.659> was<00:07:40.870> but<00:07:41.080> it<00:07:41.169> also<00:07:41.319> saw
more complex reality was but it also saw
more complex reality was but it also saw
a<00:07:41.740> positive<00:07:42.129> side<00:07:42.699> it<00:07:43.479> saw<00:07:43.810> that<00:07:44.219> invention
a positive side it saw that invention
a positive side it saw that invention
could<00:07:46.689> actually<00:07:46.960> benefit<00:07:47.889> from<00:07:47.949> emergencies
could actually benefit from emergencies
could actually benefit from emergencies
it<00:07:49.089> could<00:07:49.300> it<00:07:49.539> could<00:07:49.719> benefit<00:07:50.199> from<00:07:51.270> tragedies
it could it could benefit from tragedies
it could it could benefit from tragedies
and<00:07:52.949> my<00:07:53.949> favorite<00:07:54.400> example<00:07:54.909> of<00:07:55.029> that<00:07:55.270> which<00:07:56.139> is
and my favorite example of that which is
and my favorite example of that which is
not<00:07:56.469> really<00:07:56.889> widely<00:07:57.159> known<00:07:57.699> as<00:07:58.089> a
not really widely known as a
not really widely known as a
technological<00:07:59.129> miracle<00:08:00.129> but<00:08:00.339> it<00:08:00.490> may<00:08:00.909> be<00:08:00.969> one
technological miracle but it may be one
technological miracle but it may be one
of<00:08:01.599> the<00:08:01.719> greatest<00:08:01.930> of<00:08:02.229> all<00:08:02.379> times<00:08:02.680> was<00:08:02.919> the
of the greatest of all times was the
of the greatest of all times was the
scaling<00:08:03.819> up<00:08:03.939> of<00:08:04.089> penicillin<00:08:04.810> in<00:08:04.990> the<00:08:05.169> Second
scaling up of penicillin in the Second
scaling up of penicillin in the Second
World<00:08:05.560> War<00:08:05.969> penicillin<00:08:06.969> was<00:08:07.089> discovered<00:08:07.149> in
World War penicillin was discovered in
World War penicillin was discovered in
1928<00:08:08.710> but<00:08:09.069> even<00:08:09.909> by<00:08:10.289> 1940<00:08:11.289> no<00:08:11.979> commercially
1928 but even by 1940 no commercially
1928 but even by 1940 no commercially
and<00:08:13.089> medically<00:08:13.750> useful<00:08:14.349> quantities<00:08:14.949> of<00:08:15.219> it
and medically useful quantities of it
and medically useful quantities of it
were<00:08:15.550> being<00:08:15.849> produced<00:08:16.240> a<00:08:16.479> number<00:08:17.050> of
were being produced a number of
were being produced a number of
pharmaceutical<00:08:18.189> companies<00:08:18.219> were<00:08:18.819> working<00:08:19.210> on
pharmaceutical companies were working on
pharmaceutical companies were working on
it
it
it
they<00:08:19.930> were<00:08:19.990> working<00:08:20.469> on<00:08:20.560> it<00:08:20.620> independently
they were working on it independently
they were working on it independently
and<00:08:21.729> they<00:08:21.849> weren't<00:08:22.000> getting<00:08:22.270> anywhere<00:08:22.870> and
and they weren't getting anywhere and
and they weren't getting anywhere and
the<00:08:23.680> government<00:08:24.219> Research<00:08:24.580> Bureau<00:08:25.110> brought
the government Research Bureau brought
the government Research Bureau brought
representatives<00:08:26.919> together<00:08:27.310> and<00:08:27.699> told<00:08:28.659> them
representatives together and told them
representatives together and told them
that<00:08:28.930> this<00:08:29.259> is<00:08:29.469> something<00:08:29.889> that<00:08:29.919> has<00:08:30.430> to<00:08:30.610> be
that this is something that has to be
that this is something that has to be
done<00:08:30.969> and<00:08:31.389> not<00:08:32.050> only<00:08:32.199> did<00:08:32.409> they<00:08:32.589> do<00:08:32.649> it<00:08:33.070> but
done and not only did they do it but
done and not only did they do it but
within<00:08:33.880> two<00:08:34.240> years<00:08:34.560> they<00:08:35.560> scaled<00:08:35.919> up
within two years they scaled up
within two years they scaled up
penicillin<00:08:36.880> from<00:08:37.599> preparation<00:08:38.469> in<00:08:38.769> 1-litre
penicillin from preparation in 1-litre
penicillin from preparation in 1-litre
flasks<00:08:40.240> to<00:08:41.169> ten<00:08:41.860> thousand<00:08:42.579> gallon<00:08:43.449> vats<00:08:44.380> that
flasks to ten thousand gallon vats that
flasks to ten thousand gallon vats that
was<00:08:45.640> how<00:08:45.760> quickly<00:08:45.970> penicillin<00:08:46.899> was<00:08:47.199> produced
was how quickly penicillin was produced
was how quickly penicillin was produced
and<00:08:48.029> became<00:08:49.029> one<00:08:49.240> of<00:08:49.269> the<00:08:49.510> greatest<00:08:49.720> medical
and became one of the greatest medical
and became one of the greatest medical
advance
advance
advance
of<00:08:51.690> all<00:08:51.870> time<00:08:52.110> in<00:08:52.560> the<00:08:53.160> Second<00:08:53.490> World<00:08:53.520> War<00:08:53.730> to
of all time in the Second World War to
of all time in the Second World War to
the<00:08:54.980> existence<00:08:55.980> of<00:08:56.540> solar<00:08:57.540> radiation<00:08:58.160> was
the existence of solar radiation was
the existence of solar radiation was
demonstrated<00:09:00.120> by<00:09:00.420> studies<00:09:00.900> of<00:09:01.200> interference
demonstrated by studies of interference
demonstrated by studies of interference
that<00:09:02.340> was<00:09:02.610> detected<00:09:03.300> by<00:09:03.570> the<00:09:03.630> radar<00:09:04.140> stations
that was detected by the radar stations
that was detected by the radar stations
of<00:09:05.070> Great<00:09:05.430> Britain<00:09:05.820> so<00:09:06.000> there<00:09:06.180> were<00:09:06.270> benefits
of Great Britain so there were benefits
of Great Britain so there were benefits
in<00:09:07.850> calamities<00:09:08.850> benefits<00:09:09.480> to<00:09:09.750> pure<00:09:10.200> science
in calamities benefits to pure science
in calamities benefits to pure science
as<00:09:11.250> well<00:09:11.520> as<00:09:11.820> to<00:09:12.090> applied<00:09:12.690> science<00:09:13.200> and
as well as to applied science and
as well as to applied science and
medicine<00:09:14.540> now<00:09:15.540> when<00:09:16.230> we<00:09:16.380> come<00:09:16.830> to<00:09:16.980> the<00:09:17.070> period
medicine now when we come to the period
medicine now when we come to the period
after<00:09:17.640> the<00:09:18.060> Second<00:09:18.420> World<00:09:18.450> War
after the Second World War
after the Second World War
unintended<00:09:19.560> consequences<00:09:20.340> get<00:09:20.520> even<00:09:20.790> more
unintended consequences get even more
unintended consequences get even more
interesting<00:09:21.630> and<00:09:22.280> my<00:09:23.280> favorite<00:09:23.700> example<00:09:24.180> of
interesting and my favorite example of
interesting and my favorite example of
that<00:09:24.450> occurred<00:09:25.080> beginning<00:09:25.950> in<00:09:26.660> 1976<00:09:27.660> when<00:09:27.870> it
that occurred beginning in 1976 when it
that occurred beginning in 1976 when it
was<00:09:28.140> discovered<00:09:28.470> that<00:09:29.040> the<00:09:29.970> bacteria<00:09:30.510> causing
was discovered that the bacteria causing
was discovered that the bacteria causing
Legionnaires<00:09:31.860> disease<00:09:32.270> had<00:09:33.270> always<00:09:33.480> been
Legionnaires disease had always been
Legionnaires disease had always been
present<00:09:34.020> in<00:09:34.440> natural<00:09:35.010> waters<00:09:35.420> but<00:09:36.420> it<00:09:36.570> was<00:09:36.780> the
present in natural waters but it was the
present in natural waters but it was the
precise<00:09:37.500> temperature<00:09:37.800> of<00:09:38.490> the<00:09:38.700> water<00:09:38.940> in
precise temperature of the water in
precise temperature of the water in
heating<00:09:39.930> ventilating<00:09:40.410> and<00:09:40.650> air-conditioning
heating ventilating and air-conditioning
heating ventilating and air-conditioning
systems<00:09:41.960> that<00:09:42.980> raised<00:09:43.980> the<00:09:44.880> right
systems that raised the right
systems that raised the right
temperature<00:09:45.870> for<00:09:46.710> the<00:09:47.130> maximum<00:09:47.900> reproduction
temperature for the maximum reproduction
temperature for the maximum reproduction
of<00:09:49.370> Legionella<00:09:50.370> bacillus<00:09:50.940> well<00:09:51.720> technology
of Legionella bacillus well technology
of Legionella bacillus well technology
to<00:09:52.470> the<00:09:52.560> rescue<00:09:52.590> and<00:09:53.160> so<00:09:53.820> a<00:09:54.090> chemist<00:09:55.020> got<00:09:55.230> to
to the rescue and so a chemist got to
to the rescue and so a chemist got to
work<00:09:55.560> and<00:09:55.800> they<00:09:56.220> developed<00:09:56.730> a<00:09:56.850> bactericide
work and they developed a bactericide
work and they developed a bactericide
that<00:09:58.050> became<00:09:58.410> widely<00:09:58.710> used<00:09:58.920> in<00:09:59.400> those<00:10:00.120> systems
that became widely used in those systems
that became widely used in those systems
but<00:10:00.870> something<00:10:01.650> else<00:10:01.800> happened<00:10:02.220> in<00:10:02.340> the<00:10:02.460> early
but something else happened in the early
but something else happened in the early
1980s<00:10:03.450> and<00:10:04.040> that<00:10:05.040> was<00:10:05.280> that<00:10:05.550> there<00:10:05.730> was<00:10:05.850> a
1980s and that was that there was a
1980s and that was that there was a
mysterious<00:10:06.270> epidemic<00:10:07.140> of<00:10:07.350> failures<00:10:07.920> of<00:10:08.190> tape
mysterious epidemic of failures of tape
mysterious epidemic of failures of tape
drives<00:10:08.820> all<00:10:09.750> over<00:10:09.810> the<00:10:10.350> United<00:10:10.830> States<00:10:10.860> and
drives all over the United States and
drives all over the United States and
IBM<00:10:12.870> which<00:10:13.350> made<00:10:13.620> them<00:10:13.970> just<00:10:14.970> didn't<00:10:15.360> know
IBM which made them just didn't know
IBM which made them just didn't know
what<00:10:16.770> to<00:10:16.950> do<00:10:17.360> they<00:10:18.410> commissioned<00:10:19.410> a<00:10:19.770> group<00:10:20.640> of
what to do they commissioned a group of
what to do they commissioned a group of
their<00:10:21.180> best<00:10:21.390> scientists<00:10:22.050> to<00:10:22.410> investigate<00:10:23.040> and
their best scientists to investigate and
their best scientists to investigate and
what<00:10:23.340> they<00:10:23.460> found<00:10:23.640> was<00:10:23.910> that<00:10:24.150> all<00:10:24.660> these<00:10:24.810> tape
what they found was that all these tape
what they found was that all these tape
drives<00:10:25.410> were<00:10:25.650> located<00:10:26.280> near<00:10:27.950> ventilation
drives were located near ventilation
drives were located near ventilation
ducts<00:10:29.340> what<00:10:29.970> happened<00:10:30.300> was<00:10:30.420> the<00:10:30.660> bactericide
ducts what happened was the bactericide
ducts what happened was the bactericide
was<00:10:31.740> formulated<00:10:32.520> with<00:10:33.030> many<00:10:33.330> traces<00:10:33.840> of<00:10:33.870> 10
was formulated with many traces of 10
was formulated with many traces of 10
and<00:10:34.650> these<00:10:35.460> tin<00:10:35.730> particles<00:10:36.300> were<00:10:36.480> deposited
and these tin particles were deposited
and these tin particles were deposited
on<00:10:37.290> the<00:10:37.440> tape<00:10:37.650> heads<00:10:37.920> and<00:10:38.220> were<00:10:38.640> crashing<00:10:39.060> the
on the tape heads and were crashing the
on the tape heads and were crashing the
tape<00:10:39.390> heads<00:10:39.830> so<00:10:40.830> they<00:10:41.100> reformulated<00:10:41.850> the
tape heads so they reformulated the
tape heads so they reformulated the
bactericide<00:10:43.140> but<00:10:43.560> what's<00:10:44.040> interesting<00:10:44.340> to<00:10:44.700> me
bactericide but what's interesting to me
bactericide but what's interesting to me
is<00:10:45.120> that<00:10:45.420> this<00:10:45.630> was<00:10:45.900> the<00:10:46.110> first<00:10:46.350> case<00:10:46.650> of<00:10:46.940> a
is that this was the first case of a
is that this was the first case of a
mechanical<00:10:48.750> device<00:10:49.220> suffering<00:10:50.220> at<00:10:50.760> least
mechanical device suffering at least
mechanical device suffering at least
indirectly<00:10:51.270> from<00:10:51.930> a<00:10:52.020> human<00:10:52.320> disease<00:10:52.650> so<00:10:52.980> it
indirectly from a human disease so it
indirectly from a human disease so it
shows<00:10:53.370> that<00:10:54.300> we're<00:10:54.450> really<00:10:54.600> all<00:10:54.870> in<00:10:55.050> this
shows that we're really all in this
shows that we're really all in this
together
together
together
in<00:10:57.600> fact<00:10:57.959> it<00:10:58.439> also<00:10:58.620> shows<00:10:59.040> something
in fact it also shows something
in fact it also shows something
interesting<00:11:00.209> that<00:11:00.240> although<00:11:01.050> our
interesting that although our
interesting that although our
capabilities<00:11:02.490> and<00:11:02.519> technology<00:11:03.300> have<00:11:03.600> been
capabilities and technology have been
capabilities and technology have been
expanding<00:11:04.319> geometrically<00:11:05.269> unfortunately
expanding geometrically unfortunately
expanding geometrically unfortunately
our<00:11:06.420> ability<00:11:06.870> to<00:11:07.079> model<00:11:07.529> their<00:11:07.889> long<00:11:08.129> term
our ability to model their long term
our ability to model their long term
behavior<00:11:08.550> which<00:11:09.329> has<00:11:09.509> also<00:11:09.689> been<00:11:09.870> increasing
behavior which has also been increasing
behavior which has also been increasing
has<00:11:11.370> been<00:11:11.699> increasing<00:11:12.300> only<00:11:12.600> arithmetic<00:11:13.230> aliy
has been increasing only arithmetic aliy
has been increasing only arithmetic aliy
so<00:11:13.920> one<00:11:14.100> of<00:11:14.220> the<00:11:14.370> characteristic<00:11:15.180> problems<00:11:15.689> of
so one of the characteristic problems of
so one of the characteristic problems of
our<00:11:15.990> time<00:11:16.259> is<00:11:16.559> how<00:11:16.589> to<00:11:16.800> close<00:11:17.220> this<00:11:17.970> gap
our time is how to close this gap
our time is how to close this gap
between<00:11:19.050> capabilities<00:11:19.920> and<00:11:20.249> foresight<00:11:21.170> one
between capabilities and foresight one
between capabilities and foresight one
other<00:11:23.129> very<00:11:23.519> positive<00:11:24.350> consequence<00:11:25.350> of<00:11:25.649> 20th
other very positive consequence of 20th
other very positive consequence of 20th
century<00:11:26.879> technology<00:11:27.089> though<00:11:27.749> was<00:11:28.439> the<00:11:29.100> way<00:11:29.279> in
century technology though was the way in
century technology though was the way in
which<00:11:29.779> other<00:11:30.779> kinds<00:11:31.259> of<00:11:31.350> calamities<00:11:31.680> could
which other kinds of calamities could
which other kinds of calamities could
lead<00:11:32.430> to<00:11:32.459> positive<00:11:32.790> advances<00:11:33.709> there<00:11:34.709> are<00:11:34.949> two
lead to positive advances there are two
lead to positive advances there are two
historians<00:11:36.720> of<00:11:36.959> business<00:11:37.410> at<00:11:37.740> the<00:11:37.889> University
historians of business at the University
historians of business at the University
of<00:11:38.459> Maryland
of Maryland
of Maryland
Brent<00:11:39.899> Goldfarb<00:11:40.470> and<00:11:40.680> David<00:11:41.040> Kirsch<00:11:41.279> who<00:11:41.550> have
Brent Goldfarb and David Kirsch who have
Brent Goldfarb and David Kirsch who have
done<00:11:41.939> some<00:11:42.240> extremely<00:11:42.809> interesting<00:11:43.439> work
done some extremely interesting work
done some extremely interesting work
much<00:11:44.430> of<00:11:44.610> it<00:11:44.730> still<00:11:44.910> unpublished<00:11:45.749> on<00:11:46.430> the
much of it still unpublished on the
much of it still unpublished on the
history<00:11:47.759> of<00:11:47.910> major<00:11:48.269> innovations<00:11:48.959> they<00:11:49.139> have
history of major innovations they have
history of major innovations they have
combined<00:11:49.740> the<00:11:49.949> list<00:11:50.160> of<00:11:50.339> major<00:11:50.550> innovations
combined the list of major innovations
combined the list of major innovations
and<00:11:51.449> they've<00:11:51.899> discovered<00:11:52.379> that<00:11:52.769> the<00:11:53.579> greatest
and they've discovered that the greatest
and they've discovered that the greatest
number<00:11:54.329> the<00:11:54.480> greatest<00:11:54.839> decade<00:11:55.230> for
number the greatest decade for
number the greatest decade for
fundamental<00:11:55.949> innovations<00:11:56.879> as<00:11:57.209> reflected<00:11:58.170> in
fundamental innovations as reflected in
fundamental innovations as reflected in
all<00:11:58.829> of<00:11:59.009> the<00:11:59.220> lists<00:12:00.059> that<00:12:00.240> others<00:12:00.569> have<00:12:00.809> made<00:12:00.959> a
all of the lists that others have made a
all of the lists that others have made a
number<00:12:01.290> of<00:12:01.439> lists<00:12:01.829> that<00:12:01.949> they<00:12:02.069> emerged<00:12:02.519> was
number of lists that they emerged was
number of lists that they emerged was
the<00:12:03.300> Great<00:12:03.509> Depression<00:12:03.649> and<00:12:04.939> nobody<00:12:05.939> knows
the Great Depression and nobody knows
the Great Depression and nobody knows
just<00:12:07.139> why<00:12:07.350> this<00:12:07.410> was<00:12:07.860> so<00:12:08.069> but<00:12:08.399> one<00:12:09.529> story<00:12:10.529> can
just why this was so but one story can
just why this was so but one story can
reflect<00:12:11.339> something<00:12:11.879> of<00:12:12.000> it<00:12:12.120> it<00:12:12.269> was<00:12:12.449> the
reflect something of it it was the
reflect something of it it was the
origin<00:12:12.779> of<00:12:13.019> the<00:12:13.230> Xerox<00:12:13.949> copier<00:12:14.430> which
origin of the Xerox copier which
origin of the Xerox copier which
celebrated<00:12:16.949> its<00:12:17.189> fiftieth<00:12:17.970> anniversary<00:12:18.089> last
celebrated its fiftieth anniversary last
celebrated its fiftieth anniversary last
year<00:12:19.230> and<00:12:20.000> Chester<00:12:21.000> Carlson<00:12:21.269> the<00:12:22.399> inventor
year and Chester Carlson the inventor
year and Chester Carlson the inventor
was<00:12:25.589> a<00:12:26.600> patent<00:12:27.600> attorney<00:12:27.899> he<00:12:28.500> really<00:12:29.040> was<00:12:29.279> not
was a patent attorney he really was not
was a patent attorney he really was not
intending<00:12:30.240> to<00:12:30.269> to<00:12:30.899> work<00:12:31.079> in<00:12:31.439> in<00:12:31.709> patent
intending to to work in in patent
intending to to work in in patent
research<00:12:32.610> but<00:12:32.970> he<00:12:33.089> couldn't<00:12:33.389> really<00:12:33.569> find<00:12:33.959> an
research but he couldn't really find an
research but he couldn't really find an
alternative<00:12:35.300> technical<00:12:36.300> job<00:12:36.540> so<00:12:36.809> this<00:12:36.959> was
alternative technical job so this was
alternative technical job so this was
the<00:12:37.290> best<00:12:37.470> job<00:12:37.589> he<00:12:37.920> could<00:12:38.129> get<00:12:38.339> he<00:12:39.089> was<00:12:39.300> upset
the best job he could get he was upset
the best job he could get he was upset
by<00:12:40.259> the<00:12:40.769> low<00:12:41.069> quality<00:12:41.639> and<00:12:41.790> high<00:12:42.000> cost<00:12:42.360> of
by the low quality and high cost of
by the low quality and high cost of
existing<00:12:43.379> patent<00:12:44.129> reproductions<00:12:44.939> and<00:12:45.199> so<00:12:46.199> he
existing patent reproductions and so he
existing patent reproductions and so he
started<00:12:48.120> to<00:12:48.540> develop<00:12:48.809> a<00:12:49.199> system<00:12:49.649> of<00:12:49.829> dry
started to develop a system of dry
started to develop a system of dry
photocopying<00:12:50.879> which<00:12:51.660> he<00:12:51.839> patented<00:12:52.499> in<00:12:52.709> the
photocopying which he patented in the
photocopying which he patented in the
late<00:12:53.189> 1930s<00:12:53.790> and<00:12:54.410> which<00:12:55.410> became<00:12:55.860> the<00:12:56.399> first
late 1930s and which became the first
late 1930s and which became the first
dry<00:12:58.350> photocopier<00:12:59.249> that<00:12:59.639> was<00:12:59.819> commercially
dry photocopier that was commercially
dry photocopier that was commercially
practical<00:13:01.050> in<00:13:01.610> 1960<00:13:02.610> so<00:13:03.300> we<00:13:03.420> see<00:13:03.629> that
practical in 1960 so we see that
practical in 1960 so we see that
sometimes<00:13:04.800> as<00:13:05.129> a<00:13:05.160> result<00:13:05.610> of<00:13:05.790> these
sometimes as a result of these
sometimes as a result of these
dislocations<00:13:06.240> as<00:13:07.079> a<00:13:07.110> result<00:13:07.620> of<00:13:07.829> people
dislocations as a result of people
dislocations as a result of people
leaving
leaving
leaving
their<00:13:09.820> original<00:13:10.089> intended<00:13:10.779> career<00:13:11.200> and<00:13:11.740> going
their original intended career and going
their original intended career and going
into<00:13:12.790> something<00:13:13.029> else<00:13:13.360> where<00:13:13.750> their
into something else where their
into something else where their
creativity<00:13:14.350> could<00:13:14.770> make<00:13:14.950> a<00:13:14.980> difference<00:13:15.490> that
creativity could make a difference that
creativity could make a difference that
depressions<00:13:16.959> and<00:13:17.110> all<00:13:17.470> kinds<00:13:17.830> of<00:13:17.920> other
depressions and all kinds of other
depressions and all kinds of other
unfortunate<00:13:19.450> events<00:13:19.899> can<00:13:20.649> have<00:13:20.920> a
unfortunate events can have a
unfortunate events can have a
paradoxically<00:13:22.260> stimulating<00:13:23.260> effect<00:13:23.560> on
paradoxically stimulating effect on
paradoxically stimulating effect on
creativity<00:13:25.529> what<00:13:26.529> does<00:13:26.649> this<00:13:26.770> mean<00:13:27.070> it<00:13:27.279> means
creativity what does this mean it means
creativity what does this mean it means
I<00:13:27.760> think<00:13:27.820> that<00:13:28.300> we're<00:13:28.450> living<00:13:28.660> in<00:13:29.080> a<00:13:29.500> time<00:13:29.529> of
I think that we're living in a time of
I think that we're living in a time of
unexpected<00:13:30.970> possibilities
unexpected possibilities
unexpected possibilities
think<00:13:32.440> of<00:13:32.560> the<00:13:32.680> financial<00:13:32.950> world<00:13:33.310> for<00:13:33.610> example
think of the financial world for example
think of the financial world for example
the<00:13:35.080> mentor<00:13:35.470> of<00:13:35.500> Warren<00:13:36.100> Buffett<00:13:36.520> Benjamin
the mentor of Warren Buffett Benjamin
the mentor of Warren Buffett Benjamin
Graham<00:13:37.529> developed<00:13:38.529> his<00:13:38.740> system<00:13:39.250> of<00:13:41.580> value
Graham developed his system of value
Graham developed his system of value
investing<00:13:42.790> as<00:13:43.390> a<00:13:43.450> result<00:13:43.930> of<00:13:44.080> his<00:13:44.200> own<00:13:44.350> losses
investing as a result of his own losses
investing as a result of his own losses
in<00:13:45.010> the<00:13:45.190> 1929<00:13:45.850> crash<00:13:46.029> and<00:13:46.690> he<00:13:47.440> published<00:13:47.860> that
in the 1929 crash and he published that
in the 1929 crash and he published that
book<00:13:48.130> in<00:13:48.670> the<00:13:49.360> early<00:13:49.690> 1930s<00:13:50.380> and<00:13:51.040> the<00:13:51.399> book
book in the early 1930s and the book
book in the early 1930s and the book
still<00:13:51.880> exists<00:13:52.390> in<00:13:52.600> further<00:13:53.170> editions<00:13:53.709> and<00:13:53.890> is
still exists in further editions and is
still exists in further editions and is
still<00:13:54.250> a<00:13:54.490> fundamental<00:13:55.060> text<00:13:55.779> book<00:13:55.959> so<00:13:56.170> many
still a fundamental text book so many
still a fundamental text book so many
important<00:13:57.279> creative<00:13:57.670> things<00:13:58.180> can<00:13:58.870> happen
important creative things can happen
important creative things can happen
when<00:14:00.130> people<00:14:00.160> learn<00:14:00.910> from<00:14:01.450> disasters<00:14:02.490> now
when people learn from disasters now
when people learn from disasters now
think<00:14:03.850> of<00:14:03.970> the<00:14:04.300> large<00:14:04.839> and<00:14:05.140> small<00:14:05.380> plagues
think of the large and small plagues
think of the large and small plagues
that<00:14:05.860> we<00:14:06.100> have<00:14:06.310> now<00:14:06.630> bedbugs
that we have now bedbugs
that we have now bedbugs
killer<00:14:08.740> bees<00:14:09.180> spam<00:14:10.180> and<00:14:11.370> it's<00:14:12.370> very<00:14:12.580> possible
killer bees spam and it's very possible
killer bees spam and it's very possible
that<00:14:13.180> the<00:14:13.660> solutions<00:14:14.170> to<00:14:14.260> those<00:14:14.620> will<00:14:14.950> really
that the solutions to those will really
that the solutions to those will really
extend<00:14:15.730> well<00:14:16.180> beyond<00:14:16.600> the<00:14:16.870> immediate
extend well beyond the immediate
extend well beyond the immediate
question<00:14:17.529> if<00:14:18.279> we<00:14:18.520> think<00:14:18.730> for<00:14:18.880> example<00:14:18.940> of
question if we think for example of
question if we think for example of
Louis<00:14:19.779> Pasteur<00:14:19.810> who<00:14:20.680> in<00:14:20.829> the<00:14:20.950> 1860s<00:14:21.880> was<00:14:22.839> asked
Louis Pasteur who in the 1860s was asked
Louis Pasteur who in the 1860s was asked
to<00:14:23.649> study<00:14:24.160> the<00:14:25.029> diseases<00:14:25.600> of<00:14:25.839> silkworms<00:14:26.170> for
to study the diseases of silkworms for
to study the diseases of silkworms for
the<00:14:26.980> silk<00:14:27.220> industry<00:14:27.399> and<00:14:28.170> his<00:14:29.170> discoveries
the silk industry and his discoveries
the silk industry and his discoveries
were<00:14:30.130> really<00:14:30.490> the<00:14:30.700> beginning<00:14:30.880> of<00:14:31.209> the<00:14:31.450> germ
were really the beginning of the germ
were really the beginning of the germ
theory<00:14:32.470> of<00:14:32.649> disease<00:14:33.060> so<00:14:34.060> very<00:14:34.270> often<00:14:34.510> some
theory of disease so very often some
theory of disease so very often some
kind<00:14:35.740> of<00:14:35.860> disaster<00:14:36.550> sometimes<00:14:37.180> the
kind of disaster sometimes the
kind of disaster sometimes the
consequence<00:14:38.800> for<00:14:38.980> example<00:14:39.459> of<00:14:39.700> over
consequence for example of over
consequence for example of over
cultivation<00:14:41.380> of<00:14:41.589> silkworms<00:14:42.279> which<00:14:42.550> was<00:14:42.760> a
cultivation of silkworms which was a
cultivation of silkworms which was a
problem<00:14:43.270> in<00:14:43.390> Europe<00:14:43.690> at<00:14:43.810> the<00:14:43.930> time<00:14:44.140> can<00:14:44.800> be<00:14:44.829> the
problem in Europe at the time can be the
problem in Europe at the time can be the
key<00:14:45.310> to<00:14:45.339> something<00:14:46.089> much<00:14:46.270> bigger<00:14:46.480> so<00:14:47.440> this
key to something much bigger so this
key to something much bigger so this
means<00:14:48.579> that<00:14:49.000> we<00:14:49.690> need<00:14:49.720> to<00:14:49.930> take<00:14:50.200> a<00:14:50.230> different
means that we need to take a different
means that we need to take a different
view<00:14:50.829> of<00:14:51.570> unintended<00:14:52.570> consequences<00:14:53.440> we<00:14:53.620> need
view of unintended consequences we need
view of unintended consequences we need
to<00:14:53.950> take<00:14:54.190> a<00:14:54.459> really<00:14:54.970> positive<00:14:55.180> view<00:14:55.690> we<00:14:55.899> need
to take a really positive view we need
to take a really positive view we need
to<00:14:56.230> see<00:14:56.500> what<00:14:57.370> they<00:14:57.520> can<00:14:57.579> do<00:14:57.880> for<00:14:58.089> us<00:14:58.270> we<00:14:58.630> need
to see what they can do for us we need
to see what they can do for us we need
to<00:14:59.050> learn<00:14:59.260> from<00:15:00.480> those<00:15:01.480> figures<00:15:01.990> that<00:15:02.320> I've
to learn from those figures that I've
to learn from those figures that I've
mentioned<00:15:02.890> we<00:15:03.010> need<00:15:03.040> to<00:15:03.310> learn<00:15:03.459> for<00:15:03.760> example
mentioned we need to learn for example
mentioned we need to learn for example
from<00:15:04.420> dr.<00:15:04.750> Cushing<00:15:05.160> who<00:15:06.270> killed<00:15:07.270> patients<00:15:07.870> in
from dr. Cushing who killed patients in
from dr. Cushing who killed patients in
the<00:15:08.110> course<00:15:08.380> of<00:15:08.529> his<00:15:08.680> early<00:15:08.980> operations<00:15:09.640> he
the course of his early operations he
the course of his early operations he
had<00:15:10.480> to<00:15:10.630> have<00:15:10.810> some<00:15:11.079> errors<00:15:11.380> he<00:15:11.470> had<00:15:11.680> to<00:15:11.800> have
had to have some errors he had to have
had to have some errors he had to have
some<00:15:12.220> mistakes<00:15:12.640> and<00:15:12.910> he<00:15:13.300> learned
some mistakes and he learned
some mistakes and he learned
meticulously<00:15:14.410> from<00:15:14.829> his<00:15:14.980> mistakes<00:15:15.459> and<00:15:15.730> as<00:15:16.600> a
meticulously from his mistakes and as a
meticulously from his mistakes and as a
result<00:15:17.140> when<00:15:18.130> we<00:15:18.160> say<00:15:18.730> this<00:15:19.540> isn't<00:15:19.900> brain
result when we say this isn't brain
result when we say this isn't brain
surgery<00:15:20.170> that<00:15:20.949> pays<00:15:21.160> tribute
surgery that pays tribute
surgery that pays tribute
how<00:15:21.950> difficult<00:15:22.519> it<00:15:22.700> was<00:15:22.880> for<00:15:23.380> anyone<00:15:24.380> to<00:15:24.560> learn
how difficult it was for anyone to learn
how difficult it was for anyone to learn
from<00:15:25.040> their<00:15:25.220> mistakes<00:15:25.250> in<00:15:25.880> a<00:15:26.029> field<00:15:26.300> of
from their mistakes in a field of
from their mistakes in a field of
medicine<00:15:26.750> that<00:15:27.140> was<00:15:27.440> considered<00:15:28.180> so
medicine that was considered so
medicine that was considered so
discouraging<00:15:30.140> in<00:15:30.410> its<00:15:30.740> prospects<00:15:31.399> and<00:15:31.610> we<00:15:32.269> can
discouraging in its prospects and we can
discouraging in its prospects and we can
also<00:15:32.600> remember<00:15:33.140> how<00:15:34.060> the<00:15:35.060> pharmaceutical
also remember how the pharmaceutical
also remember how the pharmaceutical
companies<00:15:36.230> were<00:15:36.410> willing<00:15:36.740> to<00:15:36.769> pool<00:15:37.190> their
companies were willing to pool their
companies were willing to pool their
knowledge<00:15:37.910> to<00:15:37.940> share<00:15:38.209> their<00:15:38.660> knowledge<00:15:38.839> in
knowledge to share their knowledge in
knowledge to share their knowledge in
the<00:15:40.100> face<00:15:40.250> of<00:15:40.279> an<00:15:40.550> emergency
the face of an emergency
the face of an emergency
which<00:15:42.350> they<00:15:42.529> hadn't<00:15:42.890> really<00:15:43.220> been<00:15:43.510> for<00:15:44.510> years
which they hadn't really been for years
which they hadn't really been for years
and<00:15:45.019> years<00:15:45.170> they<00:15:45.440> might<00:15:45.649> have<00:15:45.769> been<00:15:45.890> able<00:15:46.010> to
and years they might have been able to
and years they might have been able to
do<00:15:46.430> it<00:15:46.579> earlier<00:15:47.649> the<00:15:48.649> message<00:15:49.040> then<00:15:49.279> for<00:15:49.640> me
do it earlier the message then for me
do it earlier the message then for me
about<00:15:50.600> unintended<00:15:51.140> consequences<00:15:52.100> is<00:15:52.990> chaos
about unintended consequences is chaos
about unintended consequences is chaos
happens
happens
happens
let's<00:15:56.480> make<00:15:56.720> better<00:15:56.930> use<00:15:57.140> of<00:15:57.170> it<00:15:57.440> thank<00:15:58.310> you
let's make better use of it thank you
let's make better use of it thank you
very<00:15:58.519> much
Edward Tenner, innovation, consequences, innovation, history, invention, TED-Ed, TED, Ed, TED, Talk, TEDEducation
