Why I must speak out about climate change - James Hansen
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what<00:00:16.640> do<00:00:16.800> I<00:00:17.240> know<00:00:18.240> that<00:00:18.359> would<00:00:18.600> cause<00:00:18.960> me<00:00:19.400> a
what do I know that would cause me a
what do I know that would cause me a
reticent<00:00:20.320> Midwestern<00:00:21.320> scientist<00:00:22.320> to<00:00:22.519> get
reticent Midwestern scientist to get
reticent Midwestern scientist to get
myself<00:00:23.439> arrested<00:00:24.439> in<00:00:24.560> front<00:00:24.760> of<00:00:24.840> the<00:00:25.039> White
myself arrested in front of the White
myself arrested in front of the White
House
House
House
protesting<00:00:27.880> and<00:00:28.039> what<00:00:28.160> would<00:00:28.320> you<00:00:28.480> do<00:00:29.359> if<00:00:29.480> you
protesting and what would you do if you
protesting and what would you do if you
knew<00:00:30.240> what<00:00:30.400> I<00:00:30.759> know<00:00:31.759> let's<00:00:32.040> start<00:00:32.759> with<00:00:32.960> how<00:00:33.120> I
knew what I know let's start with how I
knew what I know let's start with how I
got<00:00:33.399> to<00:00:33.640> this
got to this
got to this
point<00:00:36.280> I<00:00:36.399> was<00:00:36.680> lucky<00:00:37.200> to<00:00:37.440> grow<00:00:37.719> up<00:00:38.160> at<00:00:38.280> a<00:00:38.680> time
point I was lucky to grow up at a time
point I was lucky to grow up at a time
when<00:00:39.840> it<00:00:39.960> was<00:00:40.160> not<00:00:40.680> difficult<00:00:40.920> for<00:00:41.120> the<00:00:41.280> child
when it was not difficult for the child
when it was not difficult for the child
of<00:00:41.719> a<00:00:41.840> tenant<00:00:42.160> farmer<00:00:42.800> to<00:00:42.960> make<00:00:43.239> his<00:00:43.399> way<00:00:43.640> to
of a tenant farmer to make his way to
of a tenant farmer to make his way to
the<00:00:43.960> State<00:00:44.440> University<00:00:45.440> and<00:00:45.559> I<00:00:45.640> was<00:00:45.800> really
the State University and I was really
the State University and I was really
lucky<00:00:47.280> to<00:00:47.480> go<00:00:47.600> to<00:00:47.800> the<00:00:48.039> University<00:00:48.480> of<00:00:48.640> Iowa
lucky to go to the University of Iowa
lucky to go to the University of Iowa
where<00:00:49.800> I<00:00:49.920> could<00:00:50.120> study<00:00:50.600> under<00:00:50.960> Professor
where I could study under Professor
where I could study under Professor
James<00:00:51.640> Van<00:00:51.879> Allen<00:00:52.879> who<00:00:53.079> built<00:00:53.440> instruments
James Van Allen who built instruments
James Van Allen who built instruments
for<00:00:54.199> the<00:00:54.359> first<00:00:54.960> US
for the first US
for the first US
satellites<00:00:57.480> Professor<00:00:57.840> Van<00:00:58.079> Allen<00:00:58.480> told<00:00:58.760> me
satellites Professor Van Allen told me
satellites Professor Van Allen told me
about<00:01:00.039> observations<00:01:00.600> of
about observations of
about observations of
Venus<00:01:02.680> that<00:01:02.800> there<00:01:02.960> was<00:01:03.160> intense<00:01:03.760> microwave
Venus that there was intense microwave
Venus that there was intense microwave
radiation<00:01:05.280> did<00:01:05.439> it<00:01:05.600> mean<00:01:06.000> that<00:01:06.159> Venus<00:01:06.560> had<00:01:06.680> an
radiation did it mean that Venus had an
radiation did it mean that Venus had an
ionosphere<00:01:08.040> or<00:01:08.200> was<00:01:08.439> Venus<00:01:08.880> extremely<00:01:09.560> hot
ionosphere or was Venus extremely hot
ionosphere or was Venus extremely hot
the<00:01:10.759> right<00:01:11.159> answer<00:01:12.200> confirmed<00:01:13.200> by<00:01:13.360> the<00:01:13.560> Soviet
the right answer confirmed by the Soviet
the right answer confirmed by the Soviet
Vena
Vena
Vena
spacecraft<00:01:16.720> was<00:01:17.280> that<00:01:17.560> Venus<00:01:18.119> was<00:01:18.360> very<00:01:18.759> hot
spacecraft was that Venus was very hot
spacecraft was that Venus was very hot
900°<00:01:21.040> fah<00:01:22.040> and<00:01:22.159> it<00:01:22.240> was<00:01:22.479> kept<00:01:22.799> hot<00:01:23.079> by<00:01:23.200> a<00:01:23.360> thick
900° fah and it was kept hot by a thick
900° fah and it was kept hot by a thick
carbon<00:01:24.159> dioxide
carbon dioxide
carbon dioxide
atmosphere<00:01:26.680> I<00:01:26.799> was<00:01:27.000> fortunate<00:01:27.560> to<00:01:27.759> join<00:01:28.079> NASA
atmosphere I was fortunate to join NASA
atmosphere I was fortunate to join NASA
and<00:01:29.079> successfully<00:01:29.960> propose<00:01:30.479> an<00:01:30.680> experiment
and successfully propose an experiment
and successfully propose an experiment
to<00:01:31.400> fly<00:01:31.640> to
to fly to
to fly to
Venus<00:01:33.439> our<00:01:33.720> instrument<00:01:34.520> took<00:01:34.840> this<00:01:35.119> image<00:01:35.759> of
Venus our instrument took this image of
Venus our instrument took this image of
the<00:01:36.040> veil<00:01:36.320> of<00:01:36.600> Venus<00:01:37.600> which<00:01:37.880> turned<00:01:38.119> out<00:01:38.360> to<00:01:38.520> be
the veil of Venus which turned out to be
the veil of Venus which turned out to be
a<00:01:39.240> smog<00:01:39.759> of<00:01:39.920> sulfuric
a smog of sulfuric
a smog of sulfuric
acid<00:01:42.640> but<00:01:42.799> while<00:01:43.000> our<00:01:43.200> instrument<00:01:43.680> was<00:01:43.840> being
acid but while our instrument was being
acid but while our instrument was being
built<00:01:45.560> I<00:01:45.799> became<00:01:46.200> involved<00:01:46.680> in<00:01:47.240> calculations
built I became involved in calculations
built I became involved in calculations
of<00:01:48.360> the<00:01:48.479> greenhouse<00:01:49.200> effect<00:01:50.200> here<00:01:50.360> on<00:01:51.000> Earth
of the greenhouse effect here on Earth
of the greenhouse effect here on Earth
because<00:01:52.520> we<00:01:52.799> realized<00:01:53.479> that<00:01:53.640> our<00:01:53.920> atmospheric
because we realized that our atmospheric
because we realized that our atmospheric
composition<00:01:55.200> was
composition was
composition was
changing<00:01:57.119> eventually<00:01:57.960> I<00:01:58.119> resigned<00:01:58.680> as
changing eventually I resigned as
changing eventually I resigned as
principal<00:01:59.280> investigator
principal investigator
principal investigator
on<00:02:00.880> our<00:02:01.079> Venus<00:02:01.600> experiment<00:02:02.600> because<00:02:03.159> a<00:02:03.360> planet
on our Venus experiment because a planet
on our Venus experiment because a planet
changing<00:02:04.360> before<00:02:04.719> our<00:02:05.119> eyes<00:02:05.880> is<00:02:06.039> more
changing before our eyes is more
changing before our eyes is more
interesting<00:02:06.719> and<00:02:06.960> important<00:02:07.439> it<00:02:07.600> changes
interesting and important it changes
interesting and important it changes
will<00:02:08.319> affect<00:02:08.599> all
will affect all
will affect all
Humanity<00:02:10.640> the<00:02:10.800> greenhouse<00:02:11.440> effect<00:02:12.080> had<00:02:12.200> been
Humanity the greenhouse effect had been
Humanity the greenhouse effect had been
well<00:02:12.599> understood<00:02:13.200> for<00:02:13.400> more<00:02:13.560> than<00:02:13.680> a<00:02:14.200> century
well understood for more than a century
well understood for more than a century
British<00:02:15.560> physicist<00:02:16.200> John<00:02:16.519> Tindle<00:02:17.440> in<00:02:17.599> the
British physicist John Tindle in the
British physicist John Tindle in the
1850s<00:02:19.000> made<00:02:19.319> laboratory
1850s made laboratory
1850s made laboratory
measurements<00:02:21.680> of<00:02:21.840> the<00:02:22.040> infrared<00:02:22.720> radiation
measurements of the infrared radiation
measurements of the infrared radiation
which<00:02:23.599> is<00:02:23.879> heat<00:02:24.760> and<00:02:24.879> he<00:02:25.000> showed<00:02:25.400> that<00:02:25.720> Gases
which is heat and he showed that Gases
which is heat and he showed that Gases
such<00:02:26.319> as<00:02:26.519> CO2<00:02:27.200> absorb<00:02:27.720> heat<00:02:28.360> thus<00:02:28.680> acting<00:02:29.040> like
such as CO2 absorb heat thus acting like
such as CO2 absorb heat thus acting like
a<00:02:29.319> blanket
a blanket
a blanket
warming<00:02:31.280> Earth's
warming Earth's
warming Earth's
surface<00:02:33.480> I<00:02:33.599> worked<00:02:33.920> with<00:02:34.120> other<00:02:34.440> scientists
surface I worked with other scientists
surface I worked with other scientists
to<00:02:35.519> analyze<00:02:36.440> Earth<00:02:36.959> climate<00:02:37.840> observations<00:02:38.840> in
to analyze Earth climate observations in
to analyze Earth climate observations in
1981<00:02:41.040> we<00:02:41.319> published<00:02:41.680> an<00:02:41.840> article<00:02:42.200> in<00:02:42.400> Science
1981 we published an article in Science
1981 we published an article in Science
magazine<00:02:43.800> concluding<00:02:44.440> that<00:02:44.640> observed
magazine concluding that observed
magazine concluding that observed
warming<00:02:45.840> of<00:02:46.159> 0.4<00:02:47.080> de<00:02:47.519> C<00:02:48.280> in<00:02:48.440> the<00:02:48.599> prior<00:02:49.040> century
warming of 0.4 de C in the prior century
warming of 0.4 de C in the prior century
was<00:02:50.120> consistent<00:02:50.800> with<00:02:50.959> the<00:02:51.080> greenhouse
was consistent with the greenhouse
was consistent with the greenhouse
effect<00:02:52.000> of<00:02:52.159> increasing
effect of increasing
effect of increasing
CO2<00:02:54.400> that<00:02:54.640> Earth<00:02:55.000> would<00:02:55.239> likely<00:02:55.599> warm<00:02:56.000> in<00:02:56.120> the
CO2 that Earth would likely warm in the
CO2 that Earth would likely warm in the
1980s<00:02:57.440> and<00:02:57.599> warming<00:02:58.080> would<00:02:58.319> exceed<00:02:58.959> the<00:02:59.120> noise
1980s and warming would exceed the noise
1980s and warming would exceed the noise
level<00:02:59.920> of<00:03:00.080> random<00:03:00.480> weather<00:03:01.120> by<00:03:01.239> the<00:03:01.319> end<00:03:01.480> of
level of random weather by the end of
level of random weather by the end of
the
the
the
century<00:03:03.440> we<00:03:03.640> also<00:03:03.920> said<00:03:04.200> that<00:03:04.319> the<00:03:04.480> 21st
century we also said that the 21st
century we also said that the 21st
century<00:03:05.840> would<00:03:06.040> see<00:03:06.400> shifting<00:03:07.040> climate<00:03:07.440> zones
century would see shifting climate zones
century would see shifting climate zones
creation<00:03:08.440> of<00:03:08.599> drought<00:03:09.000> prone<00:03:09.360> regions<00:03:10.000> in
creation of drought prone regions in
creation of drought prone regions in
North<00:03:10.480> America<00:03:10.879> and<00:03:11.120> Asia<00:03:11.640> erosion<00:03:12.120> of<00:03:12.319> ice
North America and Asia erosion of ice
North America and Asia erosion of ice
sheets<00:03:13.000> rising<00:03:13.440> sea<00:03:13.760> levels<00:03:14.480> and<00:03:14.720> opening<00:03:15.200> of
sheets rising sea levels and opening of
sheets rising sea levels and opening of
the<00:03:15.440> fabled<00:03:16.239> Northwest<00:03:17.440> Passage<00:03:18.440> all<00:03:18.640> of
the fabled Northwest Passage all of
the fabled Northwest Passage all of
these<00:03:19.120> impacts<00:03:20.080> have<00:03:20.400> since<00:03:20.840> either<00:03:21.200> happened
these impacts have since either happened
these impacts have since either happened
or<00:03:22.040> are<00:03:22.280> now<00:03:22.599> well
or are now well
or are now well
underway<00:03:24.400> that<00:03:24.680> paper<00:03:25.200> was<00:03:25.440> reported<00:03:25.840> on<00:03:25.959> the
underway that paper was reported on the
underway that paper was reported on the
front<00:03:26.360> page<00:03:26.560> of<00:03:26.640> the<00:03:26.760> New<00:03:26.879> York<00:03:27.120> Times<00:03:27.840> and<00:03:28.000> led
front page of the New York Times and led
front page of the New York Times and led
to<00:03:28.439> me<00:03:28.720> testifying<00:03:29.239> to<00:03:29.400> con<00:03:30.040> in<00:03:30.120> the
to me testifying to con in the
to me testifying to con in the
1980s<00:03:31.959> testimony<00:03:32.560> in<00:03:32.760> which<00:03:33.000> I<00:03:33.280> emphasized
1980s testimony in which I emphasized
1980s testimony in which I emphasized
that<00:03:34.519> global<00:03:34.879> warming<00:03:35.439> increases<00:03:36.360> both
that global warming increases both
that global warming increases both
extremes<00:03:38.080> of<00:03:38.200> the<00:03:38.319> Earth's<00:03:38.680> water
extremes of the Earth's water
extremes of the Earth's water
cycle<00:03:40.720> heat<00:03:40.959> waves<00:03:41.280> and<00:03:41.439> droughts<00:03:42.000> on<00:03:42.239> one
cycle heat waves and droughts on one
cycle heat waves and droughts on one
hand<00:03:42.959> directly<00:03:43.439> from<00:03:43.640> the<00:03:44.000> warming<00:03:45.000> but<00:03:45.239> also
hand directly from the warming but also
hand directly from the warming but also
because<00:03:46.120> a<00:03:46.280> warmer<00:03:46.760> atmosphere<00:03:47.319> holds<00:03:47.640> more
because a warmer atmosphere holds more
because a warmer atmosphere holds more
water<00:03:48.159> vapor<00:03:48.720> with<00:03:48.879> its<00:03:49.040> latent<00:03:49.840> energy
water vapor with its latent energy
water vapor with its latent energy
rainfall<00:03:51.560> will<00:03:51.799> become<00:03:52.560> in<00:03:52.760> more<00:03:53.040> extreme
rainfall will become in more extreme
rainfall will become in more extreme
events<00:03:54.200> there<00:03:54.319> will<00:03:54.480> be<00:03:54.799> stronger<00:03:55.159> storms<00:03:55.799> and
events there will be stronger storms and
events there will be stronger storms and
greater
greater
greater
flooding<00:03:58.280> global<00:03:58.640> warming<00:03:59.239> hoop<00:03:59.760> law<00:04:00.560> became
flooding global warming hoop law became
flooding global warming hoop law became
time<00:04:01.640> consuming<00:04:02.640> and<00:04:02.840> distracted<00:04:03.400> me<00:04:03.640> from
time consuming and distracted me from
time consuming and distracted me from
doing<00:04:04.439> science<00:04:05.439> partly<00:04:05.879> because<00:04:06.319> I<00:04:06.519> had
doing science partly because I had
doing science partly because I had
complained<00:04:07.360> that<00:04:07.519> the<00:04:07.720> White<00:04:08.000> House<00:04:08.200> altered
complained that the White House altered
complained that the White House altered
my<00:04:09.319> testimony<00:04:10.319> so<00:04:10.560> I<00:04:10.799> decided<00:04:11.640> to<00:04:11.840> go<00:04:12.079> back<00:04:12.360> to
my testimony so I decided to go back to
my testimony so I decided to go back to
strictly<00:04:13.120> doing<00:04:13.519> science<00:04:14.319> and<00:04:14.439> leave<00:04:14.720> the
strictly doing science and leave the
strictly doing science and leave the
communication<00:04:15.640> to
communication to
communication to
others<00:04:17.959> by<00:04:18.160> 15<00:04:18.680> years
others by 15 years
others by 15 years
later<00:04:20.600> evidence<00:04:21.040> of<00:04:21.239> global<00:04:21.600> warming<00:04:22.240> was
later evidence of global warming was
later evidence of global warming was
much<00:04:22.960> stronger<00:04:23.520> most<00:04:23.800> of<00:04:23.919> the<00:04:24.080> things
much stronger most of the things
much stronger most of the things
mentioned<00:04:24.759> in<00:04:24.880> our<00:04:25.040> 1981<00:04:26.240> paper<00:04:27.240> were<00:04:27.840> facts<00:04:28.840> I
mentioned in our 1981 paper were facts I
mentioned in our 1981 paper were facts I
had<00:04:29.120> the<00:04:29.240> privilege<00:04:29.919> to<00:04:30.080> speak
had the privilege to speak
had the privilege to speak
twice<00:04:32.000> to<00:04:32.199> the<00:04:32.360> president's<00:04:32.880> climate<00:04:33.280> task
twice to the president's climate task
twice to the president's climate task
force<00:04:34.240> but<00:04:34.520> energy<00:04:35.039> policies<00:04:35.720> continued<00:04:36.280> to
force but energy policies continued to
force but energy policies continued to
focus<00:04:36.840> on<00:04:37.039> finding<00:04:37.360> more<00:04:37.639> fossil
focus on finding more fossil
focus on finding more fossil
fuels<00:04:40.520> by<00:04:40.759> then<00:04:41.199> we<00:04:41.360> had<00:04:41.520> two<00:04:41.960> grandchildren
fuels by then we had two grandchildren
fuels by then we had two grandchildren
Sophie<00:04:43.400> and<00:04:44.000> Connor<00:04:45.000> I<00:04:45.199> decided<00:04:45.840> that<00:04:46.000> I<00:04:46.120> did
Sophie and Connor I decided that I did
Sophie and Connor I decided that I did
not<00:04:46.639> want<00:04:47.320> them<00:04:47.560> in<00:04:47.680> the<00:04:47.840> future<00:04:48.320> to<00:04:48.520> say<00:04:49.039> oppa
not want them in the future to say oppa
not want them in the future to say oppa
understood<00:04:50.199> what<00:04:50.360> was<00:04:50.600> happening<00:04:51.120> but<00:04:51.240> he
understood what was happening but he
understood what was happening but he
didn't<00:04:51.639> make<00:04:51.759> it<00:04:52.320> clear<00:04:53.320> so<00:04:53.680> I<00:04:53.880> decided<00:04:54.280> to
didn't make it clear so I decided to
didn't make it clear so I decided to
give<00:04:54.560> a<00:04:54.759> public<00:04:55.120> talk<00:04:55.720> criticizing<00:04:56.479> the<00:04:56.680> lack
give a public talk criticizing the lack
give a public talk criticizing the lack
of<00:04:57.080> an<00:04:57.280> appropriate<00:04:57.720> energy<00:04:58.199> policy<00:04:58.759> I<00:04:58.880> gave
of an appropriate energy policy I gave
of an appropriate energy policy I gave
the<00:04:59.240> talk<00:04:59.600> at<00:04:59.720> the<00:04:59.800> University<00:05:00.199> of<00:05:00.320> Iowa<00:05:01.000> in
the talk at the University of Iowa in
the talk at the University of Iowa in
2004<00:05:02.320> and<00:05:02.520> at<00:05:02.680> the
2004 and at the
2004 and at the
2005<00:05:05.160> meeting<00:05:05.560> of<00:05:05.720> the<00:05:05.840> American<00:05:06.160> geophysical
2005 meeting of the American geophysical
2005 meeting of the American geophysical
Union<00:05:08.080> this<00:05:08.240> led<00:05:08.560> to<00:05:08.880> calls<00:05:09.639> from<00:05:09.840> the<00:05:10.000> White
Union this led to calls from the White
Union this led to calls from the White
House<00:05:10.479> to<00:05:10.680> NASA<00:05:11.080> headquarters<00:05:11.600> and<00:05:11.759> I<00:05:11.840> was
House to NASA headquarters and I was
House to NASA headquarters and I was
told<00:05:12.320> that<00:05:12.440> I<00:05:12.560> could<00:05:12.720> not<00:05:12.919> give<00:05:13.120> any<00:05:13.400> talks<00:05:13.840> or
told that I could not give any talks or
told that I could not give any talks or
speak<00:05:14.360> with<00:05:14.520> the<00:05:14.600> media<00:05:15.520> without<00:05:16.000> prior
speak with the media without prior
speak with the media without prior
explicit<00:05:17.280> approval<00:05:18.039> by<00:05:18.199> NASA
explicit approval by NASA
explicit approval by NASA
headquarters<00:05:20.960> after<00:05:21.319> I<00:05:21.639> informed<00:05:22.479> the<00:05:22.560> New
headquarters after I informed the New
headquarters after I informed the New
York<00:05:22.960> Times<00:05:23.280> about<00:05:23.560> these<00:05:23.960> restrictions<00:05:24.960> NASA
York Times about these restrictions NASA
York Times about these restrictions NASA
was<00:05:25.520> forced<00:05:25.800> to<00:05:25.919> end<00:05:26.199> the<00:05:26.319> censorship<00:05:27.319> but
was forced to end the censorship but
was forced to end the censorship but
there<00:05:27.560> were
there were
there were
consequences<00:05:29.600> I<00:05:29.680> had<00:05:29.800> been<00:05:29.960> using<00:05:30.319> the<00:05:30.520> first
consequences I had been using the first
consequences I had been using the first
line<00:05:31.560> of<00:05:31.720> the<00:05:31.840> NASA<00:05:32.360> mission<00:05:32.800> statement<00:05:33.680> to
line of the NASA mission statement to
line of the NASA mission statement to
understand<00:05:34.680> and<00:05:34.880> protect<00:05:35.319> the<00:05:35.440> home<00:05:35.800> planet
understand and protect the home planet
understand and protect the home planet
to<00:05:36.919> justify<00:05:37.520> my<00:05:38.240> talks<00:05:39.240> soon<00:05:39.560> the<00:05:39.720> first<00:05:39.960> line
to justify my talks soon the first line
to justify my talks soon the first line
of<00:05:40.280> the<00:05:40.400> mission<00:05:40.759> statement<00:05:41.319> was<00:05:41.560> deleted
of the mission statement was deleted
of the mission statement was deleted
never<00:05:42.840> to<00:05:43.120> appear
never to appear
never to appear
again<00:05:45.520> over<00:05:45.680> the<00:05:45.800> next<00:05:46.039> few<00:05:46.360> years<00:05:47.080> I<00:05:47.199> was
again over the next few years I was
again over the next few years I was
drawn<00:05:47.960> more<00:05:48.160> and<00:05:48.319> more<00:05:48.680> into<00:05:49.000> trying<00:05:49.280> to
drawn more and more into trying to
drawn more and more into trying to
communicate<00:05:50.199> the<00:05:50.680> urgency<00:05:51.680> of<00:05:51.800> a<00:05:51.960> change<00:05:52.360> in
communicate the urgency of a change in
communicate the urgency of a change in
energy<00:05:53.560> policies<00:05:54.560> while<00:05:54.919> still<00:05:55.479> researching
energy policies while still researching
energy policies while still researching
the<00:05:56.240> physics<00:05:56.639> of<00:05:56.840> climate<00:05:57.199> change<00:05:57.680> let<00:05:57.800> me
the physics of climate change let me
the physics of climate change let me
describe<00:05:58.440> the<00:05:58.560> most<00:05:58.840> important<00:05:59.520> conclusion
describe the most important conclusion
describe the most important conclusion
from<00:06:00.280> the<00:06:00.479> physics<00:06:01.479> first<00:06:01.919> from<00:06:02.199> Earth's
from the physics first from Earth's
from the physics first from Earth's
energy<00:06:03.360> balance<00:06:04.360> and<00:06:04.600> second<00:06:04.960> from<00:06:05.160> Earth's
energy balance and second from Earth's
energy balance and second from Earth's
climate
climate
climate
history<00:06:07.720> adding<00:06:08.080> CO2<00:06:08.800> to<00:06:08.960> the<00:06:09.120> air<00:06:09.599> is<00:06:09.800> like
history adding CO2 to the air is like
history adding CO2 to the air is like
throwing<00:06:10.479> another<00:06:10.880> blanket<00:06:11.639> on<00:06:11.840> the<00:06:12.000> bed<00:06:12.560> it
throwing another blanket on the bed it
throwing another blanket on the bed it
reduces<00:06:13.560> Earth's<00:06:13.960> heat<00:06:14.440> radiation<00:06:15.440> to<00:06:15.720> space
reduces Earth's heat radiation to space
reduces Earth's heat radiation to space
so<00:06:16.639> there's<00:06:16.840> a<00:06:17.080> temporary<00:06:17.800> energy<00:06:18.280> imbalance
so there's a temporary energy imbalance
so there's a temporary energy imbalance
more<00:06:19.520> energy<00:06:20.360> is<00:06:20.560> coming<00:06:20.919> in<00:06:21.759> than<00:06:21.960> going<00:06:22.280> out
more energy is coming in than going out
more energy is coming in than going out
until<00:06:23.360> Earth<00:06:23.720> warms<00:06:24.080> up<00:06:24.360> enough<00:06:24.880> to<00:06:25.160> again
until Earth warms up enough to again
until Earth warms up enough to again
radiate<00:06:25.840> to<00:06:26.080> space<00:06:26.520> as<00:06:26.680> much<00:06:26.960> energy<00:06:27.400> as<00:06:27.520> it
radiate to space as much energy as it
radiate to space as much energy as it
absorbs<00:06:28.120> from<00:06:28.280> the<00:06:28.440> Sun<00:06:29.560> so<00:06:29.800> the<00:06:29.960> key<00:06:30.280> quantity
absorbs from the Sun so the key quantity
absorbs from the Sun so the key quantity
is<00:06:31.520> Earth's<00:06:32.080> energy<00:06:32.639> imbalance<00:06:33.639> is<00:06:33.800> there
is Earth's energy imbalance is there
is Earth's energy imbalance is there
more<00:06:34.360> energy<00:06:34.840> coming<00:06:35.199> in<00:06:36.120> than<00:06:36.319> going<00:06:36.759> out<00:06:37.759> if
more energy coming in than going out if
more energy coming in than going out if
so<00:06:38.520> more<00:06:38.880> warming<00:06:39.880> is<00:06:40.000> in<00:06:40.160> the<00:06:40.319> pipeline<00:06:40.960> it
so more warming is in the pipeline it
so more warming is in the pipeline it
will<00:06:41.319> occur<00:06:41.720> without<00:06:42.039> adding<00:06:42.560> any<00:06:42.960> more
will occur without adding any more
will occur without adding any more
greenhouse<00:06:44.039> gases<00:06:45.039> now<00:06:45.720> finally<00:06:46.360> we<00:06:46.479> can
greenhouse gases now finally we can
greenhouse gases now finally we can
measure<00:06:47.360> Earth's<00:06:47.759> energy<00:06:48.560> imbalance
measure Earth's energy imbalance
measure Earth's energy imbalance
precisely<00:06:50.440> by<00:06:50.680> measuring<00:06:51.560> the<00:06:51.759> heat<00:06:52.160> content
precisely by measuring the heat content
precisely by measuring the heat content
in<00:06:53.039> Earth's<00:06:53.720> heat
in Earth's heat
in Earth's heat
reservoirs<00:06:55.800> the<00:06:55.919> biggest<00:06:56.280> Reservoir<00:06:56.879> the
reservoirs the biggest Reservoir the
reservoirs the biggest Reservoir the
ocean<00:06:57.560> was<00:06:57.720> the<00:06:57.919> least<00:06:58.240> well<00:06:58.560> measured<00:06:59.080> until
ocean was the least well measured until
ocean was the least well measured until
until<00:06:59.680> more<00:06:59.840> than<00:07:00.039> 3,000<00:07:00.720> Argo<00:07:01.280> floats<00:07:02.280> were
until more than 3,000 Argo floats were
until more than 3,000 Argo floats were
distributed<00:07:03.240> around<00:07:03.560> the<00:07:03.680> world's<00:07:04.440> ocean
distributed around the world's ocean
distributed around the world's ocean
these<00:07:05.639> floats<00:07:06.160> reveal<00:07:07.080> that<00:07:07.240> the<00:07:07.479> upper<00:07:07.879> half
these floats reveal that the upper half
these floats reveal that the upper half
of<00:07:08.440> the<00:07:08.599> ocean<00:07:09.000> is<00:07:09.160> gaining<00:07:09.599> Heat<00:07:09.919> at<00:07:10.039> a
of the ocean is gaining Heat at a
of the ocean is gaining Heat at a
substantial<00:07:10.919> rate<00:07:11.759> the<00:07:11.879> deep<00:07:12.160> ocean<00:07:12.520> is<00:07:12.720> also
substantial rate the deep ocean is also
substantial rate the deep ocean is also
gaining<00:07:13.360> Heat<00:07:13.599> at<00:07:13.720> a<00:07:13.879> smaller<00:07:14.319> rate<00:07:14.879> and
gaining Heat at a smaller rate and
gaining Heat at a smaller rate and
energy<00:07:15.639> is<00:07:16.240> going<00:07:16.599> into<00:07:16.960> the<00:07:17.120> net<00:07:17.520> melting<00:07:18.039> of
energy is going into the net melting of
energy is going into the net melting of
ice<00:07:18.720> all<00:07:18.919> around<00:07:19.240> the<00:07:19.440> planet<00:07:20.240> and<00:07:20.440> the<00:07:20.639> land
ice all around the planet and the land
ice all around the planet and the land
to<00:07:21.560> depths<00:07:22.080> of<00:07:22.280> tens<00:07:22.560> of<00:07:22.759> meters<00:07:23.199> is<00:07:23.479> also
to depths of tens of meters is also
to depths of tens of meters is also
warming<00:07:24.680> the<00:07:24.919> total<00:07:25.400> energy<00:07:26.120> imbalance<00:07:27.120> now
warming the total energy imbalance now
warming the total energy imbalance now
is<00:07:27.720> about<00:07:28.000> 6/10<00:07:28.720> of<00:07:28.840> a<00:07:29.000> watt
is about 6/10 of a watt
is about 6/10 of a watt
per<00:07:30.199> square<00:07:30.599> meter<00:07:31.599> that<00:07:31.759> may<00:07:31.919> not<00:07:32.080> sound<00:07:32.400> like
per square meter that may not sound like
per square meter that may not sound like
much<00:07:33.759> but<00:07:34.000> when<00:07:34.240> added<00:07:34.639> up<00:07:34.919> over<00:07:35.120> the<00:07:35.280> whole
much but when added up over the whole
much but when added up over the whole
world<00:07:36.000> it's<00:07:36.520> enormous<00:07:37.520> it's<00:07:37.720> about<00:07:38.000> 20<00:07:38.440> times
world it's enormous it's about 20 times
world it's enormous it's about 20 times
greater<00:07:39.759> than<00:07:39.879> the<00:07:40.039> rate<00:07:40.240> of<00:07:40.400> energy<00:07:40.759> use<00:07:41.120> by
greater than the rate of energy use by
greater than the rate of energy use by
all<00:07:41.479> of
all of
all of
humanity<00:07:43.440> it's<00:07:43.720> equivalent<00:07:44.240> to<00:07:44.639> exploding
humanity it's equivalent to exploding
humanity it's equivalent to exploding
400,000<00:07:47.199> hirosima<00:07:47.720> atomic<00:07:48.639> bombs<00:07:49.479> per<00:07:49.759> day
400,000 hirosima atomic bombs per day
400,000 hirosima atomic bombs per day
365<00:07:51.879> days<00:07:52.360> per<00:07:53.039> year<00:07:54.039> that's<00:07:54.280> how<00:07:54.440> much<00:07:54.759> extra
365 days per year that's how much extra
365 days per year that's how much extra
energy<00:07:55.720> Earth<00:07:56.000> is<00:07:56.199> gaining<00:07:56.560> each
energy Earth is gaining each
energy Earth is gaining each
day<00:07:58.400> this<00:07:58.680> imbalance
day this imbalance
day this imbalance
if<00:08:00.319> we<00:08:00.479> want<00:08:00.680> to<00:08:00.919> stabilize<00:08:01.919> climate<00:08:02.599> means
if we want to stabilize climate means
if we want to stabilize climate means
that<00:08:03.120> we<00:08:03.319> must<00:08:03.639> reduce<00:08:04.120> CO2<00:08:05.120> from<00:08:05.520> 391<00:08:06.520> PPM
that we must reduce CO2 from 391 PPM
that we must reduce CO2 from 391 PPM
parts<00:08:07.479> per<00:08:07.720> million<00:08:08.240> back<00:08:08.440> to<00:08:08.639> 350<00:08:09.759> PPM<00:08:10.759> that
parts per million back to 350 PPM that
parts per million back to 350 PPM that
is<00:08:11.120> the<00:08:11.319> change<00:08:11.800> needed<00:08:12.120> to<00:08:12.319> restore<00:08:12.919> energy
is the change needed to restore energy
is the change needed to restore energy
balance<00:08:13.720> and<00:08:13.919> prevent<00:08:14.280> further
balance and prevent further
balance and prevent further
warming<00:08:16.280> climate<00:08:16.599> change<00:08:16.960> deniers<00:08:17.800> argue
warming climate change deniers argue
warming climate change deniers argue
that<00:08:18.440> the<00:08:18.599> sun<00:08:19.360> is<00:08:19.520> the<00:08:19.680> main<00:08:20.000> cause<00:08:20.440> of
that the sun is the main cause of
that the sun is the main cause of
climate<00:08:21.039> change<00:08:21.639> but<00:08:21.800> the<00:08:21.919> measured<00:08:22.520> energy
climate change but the measured energy
climate change but the measured energy
imbalance<00:08:24.319> occurred<00:08:25.319> during<00:08:25.639> the<00:08:25.840> deepest
imbalance occurred during the deepest
imbalance occurred during the deepest
solar<00:08:27.199> minimum<00:08:28.199> in<00:08:28.360> the<00:08:28.520> record<00:08:29.280> when<00:08:29.440> the
solar minimum in the record when the
solar minimum in the record when the
sun's<00:08:29.879> energy<00:08:30.240> reaching<00:08:30.599> Earth<00:08:30.919> was
sun's energy reaching Earth was
sun's energy reaching Earth was
least<00:08:32.880> yet<00:08:33.200> there<00:08:33.320> was<00:08:33.519> more<00:08:33.800> energy<00:08:34.240> coming
least yet there was more energy coming
least yet there was more energy coming
in<00:08:34.719> than<00:08:34.919> going<00:08:35.200> out<00:08:35.760> this<00:08:35.919> shows<00:08:36.320> that<00:08:36.479> the
in than going out this shows that the
in than going out this shows that the
effect<00:08:37.000> of<00:08:37.159> the<00:08:37.320> sun's<00:08:37.680> variations<00:08:38.320> on
effect of the sun's variations on
effect of the sun's variations on
climate<00:08:38.959> is<00:08:39.159> overwhelmed<00:08:40.159> by<00:08:40.399> the<00:08:40.640> increasing
climate is overwhelmed by the increasing
climate is overwhelmed by the increasing
greenhouse<00:08:41.800> gases<00:08:42.360> mainly<00:08:42.680> from<00:08:42.839> burning
greenhouse gases mainly from burning
greenhouse gases mainly from burning
fossil<00:08:43.839> fuels<00:08:44.839> now<00:08:45.240> consider<00:08:45.680> earth's
fossil fuels now consider earth's
fossil fuels now consider earth's
climate
climate
climate
history<00:08:48.480> these<00:08:48.760> curves<00:08:49.120> for<00:08:49.360> Global
history these curves for Global
history these curves for Global
temperature<00:08:50.440> atmospheric<00:08:51.120> CO2<00:08:51.760> and<00:08:51.920> sea
temperature atmospheric CO2 and sea
temperature atmospheric CO2 and sea
level<00:08:52.480> were<00:08:52.720> derived<00:08:53.240> from<00:08:53.399> Ocean<00:08:53.760> cores<00:08:54.160> and
level were derived from Ocean cores and
level were derived from Ocean cores and
Antarctic<00:08:54.959> Ice<00:08:55.240> cores<00:08:55.839> from<00:08:56.040> Ocean<00:08:56.440> sediments
Antarctic Ice cores from Ocean sediments
Antarctic Ice cores from Ocean sediments
and<00:08:57.560> snowflakes<00:08:58.320> that<00:08:58.519> piled<00:08:58.880> up<00:08:59.320> year<00:08:59.560> after
and snowflakes that piled up year after
and snowflakes that piled up year after
year<00:09:00.800> over<00:09:01.040> 800,000<00:09:02.000> years<00:09:02.560> forming<00:09:02.920> a<00:09:03.079> 2-mile
year over 800,000 years forming a 2-mile
year over 800,000 years forming a 2-mile
thick<00:09:04.160> ice<00:09:04.519> sheet<00:09:05.519> as<00:09:05.640> you<00:09:05.800> see<00:09:06.279> there<00:09:06.399> is<00:09:06.560> a
thick ice sheet as you see there is a
thick ice sheet as you see there is a
high<00:09:07.160> correlation<00:09:08.000> between<00:09:08.440> temperature<00:09:08.959> CO2
high correlation between temperature CO2
high correlation between temperature CO2
and<00:09:09.680> sea<00:09:10.000> level<00:09:10.760> careful<00:09:11.399> examination<00:09:12.399> shows
and sea level careful examination shows
and sea level careful examination shows
that<00:09:13.000> the<00:09:13.240> temperature<00:09:13.920> changes<00:09:14.920> slightly
that the temperature changes slightly
that the temperature changes slightly
lead<00:09:16.120> the<00:09:16.279> CO2<00:09:16.800> changes<00:09:17.440> by<00:09:17.640> a<00:09:17.760> few
lead the CO2 changes by a few
lead the CO2 changes by a few
centuries<00:09:19.760> climate<00:09:20.120> change<00:09:20.440> deniers<00:09:21.120> like<00:09:21.320> to
centuries climate change deniers like to
centuries climate change deniers like to
use<00:09:21.880> this<00:09:22.200> fact<00:09:22.560> to<00:09:22.839> confuse<00:09:23.800> and<00:09:24.000> trick<00:09:24.800> the
use this fact to confuse and trick the
use this fact to confuse and trick the
public<00:09:25.560> by<00:09:25.760> saying<00:09:26.240> look<00:09:26.839> the<00:09:27.040> temperature
public by saying look the temperature
public by saying look the temperature
causes<00:09:28.000> CO2<00:09:28.560> to<00:09:28.680> change<00:09:29.360> not<00:09:29.640> vice<00:09:30.240> versa<00:09:31.240> but
causes CO2 to change not vice versa but
causes CO2 to change not vice versa but
that<00:09:31.720> leg<00:09:32.440> is<00:09:32.839> exactly<00:09:33.839> what<00:09:34.000> is<00:09:34.680> expected
that leg is exactly what is expected
that leg is exactly what is expected
small<00:09:36.160> changes<00:09:36.839> in<00:09:37.160> Earth's<00:09:37.600> orbit<00:09:38.480> that
small changes in Earth's orbit that
small changes in Earth's orbit that
occur<00:09:39.160> over<00:09:39.480> tens<00:09:39.959> to<00:09:40.160> hundreds<00:09:40.519> of<00:09:40.720> thousands
occur over tens to hundreds of thousands
occur over tens to hundreds of thousands
of<00:09:41.399> years<00:09:42.120> alter<00:09:42.640> the<00:09:43.160> distribution<00:09:44.160> of
of years alter the distribution of
of years alter the distribution of
sunlight<00:09:44.880> on<00:09:45.560> earth<00:09:46.560> when<00:09:46.720> there<00:09:46.880> is<00:09:47.079> more
sunlight on earth when there is more
sunlight on earth when there is more
sunlight<00:09:47.920> at<00:09:48.120> high<00:09:48.360> latitudes<00:09:48.920> in<00:09:49.120> summer<00:09:49.800> ice
sunlight at high latitudes in summer ice
sunlight at high latitudes in summer ice
sheets<00:09:50.399> melt<00:09:51.160> shrinking<00:09:51.720> ice<00:09:51.959> sheets<00:09:52.880> make
sheets melt shrinking ice sheets make
sheets melt shrinking ice sheets make
the<00:09:53.320> planet<00:09:53.720> darker<00:09:54.720> so<00:09:54.959> it<00:09:55.160> absorbs<00:09:55.760> more
the planet darker so it absorbs more
the planet darker so it absorbs more
sunlight<00:09:56.600> and<00:09:56.760> becomes<00:09:57.600> warmer<00:09:58.600> a<00:09:58.760> warmer
sunlight and becomes warmer a warmer
sunlight and becomes warmer a warmer
ocean<00:09:59.760> releases<00:10:00.360> CO2<00:10:01.279> just<00:10:01.480> as<00:10:01.640> a<00:10:01.800> warm
ocean releases CO2 just as a warm
ocean releases CO2 just as a warm
Coca-Cola<00:10:02.920> does<00:10:03.560> and<00:10:03.720> more<00:10:04.000> CO2<00:10:04.720> causes<00:10:05.120> more
Coca-Cola does and more CO2 causes more
Coca-Cola does and more CO2 causes more
warming<00:10:06.720> so<00:10:07.079> CO2<00:10:08.079> methane<00:10:09.079> and<00:10:09.320> ice<00:10:09.560> sheets
warming so CO2 methane and ice sheets
warming so CO2 methane and ice sheets
were<00:10:10.320> feedbacks<00:10:11.240> that<00:10:11.720> Amplified<00:10:12.720> Global
were feedbacks that Amplified Global
were feedbacks that Amplified Global
temperature<00:10:13.680> change<00:10:14.240> causing<00:10:14.800> these<00:10:15.160> ancient
temperature change causing these ancient
temperature change causing these ancient
climate<00:10:16.480> oscillations<00:10:17.240> to<00:10:17.399> be<00:10:17.680> huge<00:10:18.200> even
climate oscillations to be huge even
climate oscillations to be huge even
though<00:10:18.640> the<00:10:18.839> climate<00:10:19.200> change<00:10:19.560> was<00:10:19.800> initiated
though the climate change was initiated
though the climate change was initiated
by<00:10:20.760> a<00:10:21.000> very<00:10:21.240> weak
by a very weak
by a very weak
forcing<00:10:23.160> the<00:10:23.320> important<00:10:23.920> point<00:10:24.760> is<00:10:25.040> that
forcing the important point is that
forcing the important point is that
these<00:10:25.560> same<00:10:26.079> amplifying<00:10:26.760> feedbacks<00:10:27.399> will
these same amplifying feedbacks will
these same amplifying feedbacks will
occur<00:10:28.040> today<00:10:29.240> the<00:10:29.440> physics<00:10:29.880> does<00:10:30.079> not<00:10:30.360> change
occur today the physics does not change
occur today the physics does not change
as<00:10:31.600> Earth<00:10:31.880> warms<00:10:32.800> now<00:10:33.120> because<00:10:33.440> of<00:10:33.640> extra<00:10:33.959> CO2
as Earth warms now because of extra CO2
as Earth warms now because of extra CO2
we<00:10:34.720> put<00:10:34.880> in<00:10:35.040> the<00:10:35.200> atmosphere<00:10:35.959> ice<00:10:36.200> will<00:10:36.440> melt
we put in the atmosphere ice will melt
we put in the atmosphere ice will melt
and<00:10:37.240> CO2<00:10:37.760> and<00:10:37.959> methane<00:10:38.440> will<00:10:38.639> be<00:10:38.839> released<00:10:39.399> by
and CO2 and methane will be released by
and CO2 and methane will be released by
warming<00:10:40.000> ocean<00:10:40.839> and<00:10:41.040> melting<00:10:41.680> permafrost
warming ocean and melting permafrost
warming ocean and melting permafrost
while<00:10:42.959> we<00:10:43.160> can't<00:10:43.560> say<00:10:44.560> exactly<00:10:45.079> how<00:10:45.399> fast
while we can't say exactly how fast
while we can't say exactly how fast
these<00:10:46.360> amplifying<00:10:47.000> feedbacks<00:10:47.959> will<00:10:48.240> occur<00:10:48.800> it
these amplifying feedbacks will occur it
these amplifying feedbacks will occur it
is<00:10:49.120> certain<00:10:49.760> they<00:10:49.880> will<00:10:50.440> occur<00:10:51.440> unless<00:10:51.880> we
is certain they will occur unless we
is certain they will occur unless we
stop<00:10:52.399> the<00:10:52.839> warming<00:10:53.839> there<00:10:53.959> is<00:10:54.240> evidence<00:10:54.720> that
stop the warming there is evidence that
stop the warming there is evidence that
feedbacks<00:10:55.720> are<00:10:56.040> already
feedbacks are already
feedbacks are already
beginning<00:10:58.720> prec<00:10:59.040> precise<00:10:59.440> measurements<00:11:00.120> by
beginning prec precise measurements by
beginning prec precise measurements by
Grace<00:11:01.279> the<00:11:01.440> gravity<00:11:01.920> satellite<00:11:02.560> reveal<00:11:03.079> that
Grace the gravity satellite reveal that
Grace the gravity satellite reveal that
both<00:11:03.600> Greenland<00:11:04.240> and<00:11:04.760> Antarctica<00:11:05.760> are<00:11:05.959> now
both Greenland and Antarctica are now
both Greenland and Antarctica are now
losing<00:11:06.760> mass<00:11:07.760> several<00:11:08.240> hundred<00:11:08.760> cubic
losing mass several hundred cubic
losing mass several hundred cubic
kilometers<00:11:09.839> per<00:11:10.079> year<00:11:10.920> and<00:11:11.079> the<00:11:11.240> rate<00:11:11.600> has
kilometers per year and the rate has
kilometers per year and the rate has
accelerated<00:11:13.320> since<00:11:13.560> the<00:11:13.680> measurements<00:11:14.279> began
accelerated since the measurements began
accelerated since the measurements began
9<00:11:15.160> years
9 years
9 years
ago<00:11:17.000> methane<00:11:17.600> is<00:11:17.839> also<00:11:18.160> beginning<00:11:18.560> to<00:11:18.800> escape
ago methane is also beginning to escape
ago methane is also beginning to escape
from<00:11:19.480> the
from the
from the
permafrost<00:11:21.680> what<00:11:21.880> sea<00:11:22.120> level<00:11:22.399> rise<00:11:23.360> can<00:11:23.600> we
permafrost what sea level rise can we
permafrost what sea level rise can we
look<00:11:24.399> forward<00:11:24.800> to<00:11:25.720> the<00:11:25.959> last<00:11:26.279> time<00:11:26.680> CO2<00:11:27.399> was
look forward to the last time CO2 was
look forward to the last time CO2 was
390<00:11:28.560> PP<00:11:29.120> M<00:11:29.320> today's<00:11:29.800> value<00:11:30.560> sea<00:11:30.880> level<00:11:31.320> was
390 PP M today's value sea level was
390 PP M today's value sea level was
higher<00:11:32.040> by<00:11:32.240> at<00:11:32.360> least<00:11:32.680> 15<00:11:33.079> m<00:11:33.720> 50
higher by at least 15 m 50
higher by at least 15 m 50
ft<00:11:36.240> where<00:11:36.399> you<00:11:36.560> are<00:11:36.639> sitting<00:11:37.040> now<00:11:37.480> would<00:11:37.680> be
ft where you are sitting now would be
ft where you are sitting now would be
underwater<00:11:40.000> most<00:11:40.360> estimates<00:11:40.920> are<00:11:41.360> that<00:11:41.639> this
underwater most estimates are that this
underwater most estimates are that this
Century<00:11:43.000> we<00:11:43.120> will<00:11:43.320> get<00:11:43.600> at<00:11:43.760> least<00:11:44.079> one<00:11:44.399> meter<00:11:45.399> I
Century we will get at least one meter I
Century we will get at least one meter I
think<00:11:45.720> it<00:11:45.800> will<00:11:46.000> be<00:11:46.480> more<00:11:46.959> if<00:11:47.079> we<00:11:47.240> keep<00:11:47.440> burning
think it will be more if we keep burning
think it will be more if we keep burning
fossil<00:11:48.240> fuels<00:11:48.839> perhaps<00:11:49.200> even<00:11:49.519> 5<00:11:49.760> meters<00:11:50.200> which
fossil fuels perhaps even 5 meters which
fossil fuels perhaps even 5 meters which
is<00:11:50.480> 18<00:11:50.959> ft<00:11:51.959> this<00:11:52.399> Century<00:11:53.160> or<00:11:53.399> shortly
is 18 ft this Century or shortly
is 18 ft this Century or shortly
thereafter<00:11:55.440> the<00:11:55.600> important<00:11:56.240> point<00:11:56.800> is<00:11:57.040> that
thereafter the important point is that
thereafter the important point is that
we<00:11:57.560> will<00:11:57.760> have<00:11:57.920> started<00:11:58.279> a<00:11:58.560> process
we will have started a process
we will have started a process
that<00:11:59.959> is<00:12:00.160> out<00:12:00.440> of<00:12:00.680> Humanity's<00:12:01.839> control<00:12:02.839> ice
that is out of Humanity's control ice
that is out of Humanity's control ice
sheets<00:12:03.600> would<00:12:03.880> continue<00:12:04.279> to<00:12:04.480> disintegrate
sheets would continue to disintegrate
sheets would continue to disintegrate
for<00:12:05.320> centuries<00:12:06.279> there<00:12:06.399> would<00:12:06.560> be<00:12:06.680> no<00:12:06.959> stable
for centuries there would be no stable
for centuries there would be no stable
Shoreline<00:12:08.399> The<00:12:08.600> Economic<00:12:09.279> Consequences<00:12:10.000> are
Shoreline The Economic Consequences are
Shoreline The Economic Consequences are
almost<00:12:10.639> Unthinkable<00:12:11.519> hundreds<00:12:12.079> of<00:12:12.279> New
almost Unthinkable hundreds of New
almost Unthinkable hundreds of New
Orleans<00:12:13.120> likee<00:12:14.000> devastations<00:12:14.760> around<00:12:15.079> the
Orleans likee devastations around the
Orleans likee devastations around the
world<00:12:16.760> what<00:12:16.920> may<00:12:17.120> be<00:12:17.320> more<00:12:17.680> reprehensible<00:12:18.680> if
world what may be more reprehensible if
world what may be more reprehensible if
climate<00:12:19.480> denial<00:12:20.240> continues<00:12:20.920> is
climate denial continues is
climate denial continues is
extermination<00:12:21.880> of<00:12:22.560> species<00:12:23.560> the<00:12:23.720> monarch
extermination of species the monarch
extermination of species the monarch
butterfly<00:12:25.079> could<00:12:25.240> be<00:12:25.399> one<00:12:25.560> of<00:12:25.720> the<00:12:25.880> 20<00:12:26.240> to<00:12:26.680> 50%
butterfly could be one of the 20 to 50%
butterfly could be one of the 20 to 50%
of<00:12:27.920> all<00:12:29.040> species<00:12:29.639> that<00:12:29.800> the
of all species that the
of all species that the
intergovernmental<00:12:30.760> panel<00:12:31.079> on<00:12:31.320> climate
intergovernmental panel on climate
intergovernmental panel on climate
change<00:12:32.720> estimates<00:12:33.279> will<00:12:33.480> be<00:12:33.639> ticketed<00:12:34.120> for
change estimates will be ticketed for
change estimates will be ticketed for
extinction<00:12:35.040> by<00:12:35.199> the<00:12:35.279> end<00:12:35.480> of<00:12:35.600> the<00:12:35.760> century<00:12:36.560> if
extinction by the end of the century if
extinction by the end of the century if
we<00:12:36.959> stay<00:12:37.279> on<00:12:37.519> business<00:12:37.920> as<00:12:38.160> usual<00:12:38.560> fossil<00:12:38.920> fuel
we stay on business as usual fossil fuel
we stay on business as usual fossil fuel
use<00:12:40.880> global<00:12:41.240> warming<00:12:41.639> is<00:12:41.880> already<00:12:42.360> affecting
use global warming is already affecting
use global warming is already affecting
people<00:12:44.040> the<00:12:44.279> Texas<00:12:44.959> Oklahoma<00:12:45.839> Mexico
people the Texas Oklahoma Mexico
people the Texas Oklahoma Mexico
Heatwave<00:12:47.199> and<00:12:47.440> drought<00:12:48.000> last<00:12:48.360> year<00:12:49.040> Moscow
Heatwave and drought last year Moscow
Heatwave and drought last year Moscow
the<00:12:49.760> year<00:12:50.040> before<00:12:51.040> and<00:12:51.240> Europe<00:12:51.639> in<00:12:52.519> 2003<00:12:53.519> were
the year before and Europe in 2003 were
the year before and Europe in 2003 were
all<00:12:54.360> exceptional<00:12:55.399> events<00:12:56.399> more<00:12:56.639> than<00:12:56.839> three
all exceptional events more than three
all exceptional events more than three
standard<00:12:57.600> deviations<00:12:58.399> outside<00:12:59.079> the<00:12:59.519> norm<00:13:00.519> 50
standard deviations outside the norm 50
standard deviations outside the norm 50
years<00:13:01.240> ago<00:13:02.079> such<00:13:02.399> anomalies<00:13:03.160> covered<00:13:03.560> only<00:13:03.839> 2
years ago such anomalies covered only 2
years ago such anomalies covered only 2
to<00:13:04.279> 3/10<00:13:04.959> of<00:13:05.279> 1%<00:13:06.279> of<00:13:06.440> the<00:13:06.560> land<00:13:06.920> area<00:13:07.760> in<00:13:08.000> recent
to 3/10 of 1% of the land area in recent
to 3/10 of 1% of the land area in recent
years<00:13:09.839> because<00:13:10.199> of<00:13:10.360> global<00:13:10.720> warming<00:13:11.399> they<00:13:11.560> Now
years because of global warming they Now
years because of global warming they Now
cover<00:13:12.160> about<00:13:12.720> 10%<00:13:13.720> and<00:13:13.959> increase<00:13:14.480> by<00:13:14.600> a<00:13:14.800> factor
cover about 10% and increase by a factor
cover about 10% and increase by a factor
of<00:13:15.440> 25<00:13:15.959> to<00:13:16.120> 50<00:13:16.720> so<00:13:16.920> we<00:13:17.040> can<00:13:17.279> say<00:13:17.639> with<00:13:17.760> a<00:13:17.959> high
of 25 to 50 so we can say with a high
of 25 to 50 so we can say with a high
degree<00:13:18.480> of<00:13:18.800> confidence<00:13:19.800> that<00:13:19.959> the<00:13:20.160> severe
degree of confidence that the severe
degree of confidence that the severe
Texas<00:13:21.440> and<00:13:21.639> Moscow<00:13:22.160> heat<00:13:22.399> waves<00:13:22.680> were<00:13:22.880> not
Texas and Moscow heat waves were not
Texas and Moscow heat waves were not
natural<00:13:24.000> they<00:13:24.120> were<00:13:24.360> caused<00:13:24.760> by<00:13:24.959> global
natural they were caused by global
natural they were caused by global
warming<00:13:27.120> an<00:13:27.320> important<00:13:27.920> impact<00:13:28.920> if<00:13:29.240> global
warming an important impact if global
warming an important impact if global
warming<00:13:30.000> continues<00:13:30.959> will<00:13:31.160> be<00:13:31.360> on<00:13:31.519> the<00:13:31.639> Bread
warming continues will be on the Bread
warming continues will be on the Bread
Basket<00:13:32.480> of<00:13:32.639> our<00:13:32.800> nation<00:13:33.160> and<00:13:33.360> the<00:13:33.480> world<00:13:34.120> the
Basket of our nation and the world the
Basket of our nation and the world the
Midwest<00:13:34.760> in<00:13:34.959> Great<00:13:35.240> Plains<00:13:35.760> which<00:13:35.880> are
Midwest in Great Plains which are
Midwest in Great Plains which are
expected<00:13:36.480> to<00:13:36.600> become<00:13:37.079> prone<00:13:37.399> to<00:13:37.639> extreme
expected to become prone to extreme
expected to become prone to extreme
droughts<00:13:39.519> worse<00:13:39.800> than<00:13:39.959> the<00:13:40.079> Dust<00:13:40.399> Bowl<00:13:40.959> within
droughts worse than the Dust Bowl within
droughts worse than the Dust Bowl within
just<00:13:41.560> a<00:13:41.720> few<00:13:42.079> decades<00:13:42.959> if<00:13:43.120> we<00:13:43.320> let<00:13:43.600> global
just a few decades if we let global
just a few decades if we let global
warming
warming
warming
continue<00:13:47.240> how<00:13:47.399> did<00:13:47.600> I<00:13:47.839> get<00:13:48.079> dragged<00:13:49.000> deeper
continue how did I get dragged deeper
continue how did I get dragged deeper
and<00:13:49.639> deeper<00:13:50.199> into<00:13:50.560> an<00:13:50.759> attempt<00:13:51.079> to
and deeper into an attempt to
and deeper into an attempt to
communicate<00:13:52.000> giving<00:13:52.399> talks<00:13:52.959> in<00:13:53.160> 10<00:13:53.560> countries
communicate giving talks in 10 countries
communicate giving talks in 10 countries
getting<00:13:54.639> arrested<00:13:55.360> burning<00:13:55.720> up<00:13:55.959> the<00:13:56.120> vacation
getting arrested burning up the vacation
getting arrested burning up the vacation
time<00:13:56.920> that<00:13:57.040> I<00:13:57.199> had<00:13:57.399> accumulated<00:13:58.000> over<00:13:58.199> 30
time that I had accumulated over 30
time that I had accumulated over 30
years
more<00:14:01.399> grandchildren<00:14:02.399> helped<00:14:02.759> me<00:14:03.360> along<00:14:04.360> Jake
more grandchildren helped me along Jake
more grandchildren helped me along Jake
is<00:14:05.120> a<00:14:05.360> super<00:14:06.000> positive<00:14:07.000> enthusiastic<00:14:07.920> boy
is a super positive enthusiastic boy
is a super positive enthusiastic boy
here<00:14:08.959> at<00:14:09.160> Age<00:14:09.440> 2<00:14:09.600> and<00:14:09.680> A2<00:14:10.040> years<00:14:10.560> he<00:14:10.759> thinks<00:14:11.120> he
here at Age 2 and A2 years he thinks he
here at Age 2 and A2 years he thinks he
can<00:14:11.600> protect<00:14:12.120> his<00:14:12.320> 2<00:14:12.480> and<00:14:12.600> a<00:14:12.720> half<00:14:12.920> day<00:14:13.199> old
can protect his 2 and a half day old
can protect his 2 and a half day old
little
little
little
sister<00:14:16.079> it<00:14:16.199> would<00:14:16.440> be<00:14:16.880> immoral<00:14:17.839> to<00:14:18.040> leave
sister it would be immoral to leave
sister it would be immoral to leave
these<00:14:18.800> young<00:14:19.160> people<00:14:19.600> with<00:14:19.759> a<00:14:19.959> climate<00:14:20.440> system
these young people with a climate system
these young people with a climate system
spiraling<00:14:21.759> out<00:14:21.959> of
spiraling out of
spiraling out of
control<00:14:24.079> now<00:14:24.279> the<00:14:24.519> tragedy<00:14:25.519> about<00:14:25.839> climate
control now the tragedy about climate
control now the tragedy about climate
change<00:14:26.600> is<00:14:26.680> that<00:14:26.839> we<00:14:26.959> can<00:14:27.120> solve<00:14:27.680> it<00:14:28.759> with<00:14:28.880> a
change is that we can solve it with a
change is that we can solve it with a
simple<00:14:29.560> honest<00:14:30.079> approach<00:14:30.600> of<00:14:30.759> a<00:14:30.959> gradually
simple honest approach of a gradually
simple honest approach of a gradually
Rising<00:14:32.120> carbon<00:14:32.600> fee<00:14:33.600> collected<00:14:34.199> from<00:14:34.440> fossil
Rising carbon fee collected from fossil
Rising carbon fee collected from fossil
fuel<00:14:35.240> companies<00:14:35.880> and<00:14:36.320> distributed
fuel companies and distributed
fuel companies and distributed
100%<00:14:38.839> electronically<00:14:39.800> every<00:14:40.079> month<00:14:40.360> to<00:14:40.560> all
100% electronically every month to all
100% electronically every month to all
legal<00:14:41.199> residents<00:14:41.759> on<00:14:41.920> a<00:14:42.079> per<00:14:42.360> capita<00:14:42.800> basis
legal residents on a per capita basis
legal residents on a per capita basis
with<00:14:43.959> the<00:14:44.160> government<00:14:44.759> not<00:14:45.000> keeping<00:14:45.519> one
with the government not keeping one
with the government not keeping one
dime<00:14:47.720> most<00:14:48.120> people<00:14:48.519> would<00:14:48.720> get<00:14:48.920> more<00:14:49.199> in<00:14:49.360> the
dime most people would get more in the
dime most people would get more in the
monthly<00:14:49.839> dividend<00:14:50.360> than<00:14:50.519> they<00:14:50.680> pay<00:14:50.920> in
monthly dividend than they pay in
monthly dividend than they pay in
increased
increased
increased
prices<00:14:53.399> this<00:14:53.600> fee<00:14:53.880> and<00:14:54.120> dividend<00:14:54.839> would
prices this fee and dividend would
prices this fee and dividend would
stimulate<00:14:55.880> the<00:14:56.079> economy<00:14:57.040> and<00:14:57.680> Innovations
stimulate the economy and Innovations
stimulate the economy and Innovations
creating<00:14:59.560> millions<00:15:00.000> of<00:15:00.279> jobs<00:15:00.880> it<00:15:01.000> is<00:15:01.160> the
creating millions of jobs it is the
creating millions of jobs it is the
principal<00:15:02.160> requirement<00:15:03.160> for<00:15:03.399> moving<00:15:03.839> us
principal requirement for moving us
principal requirement for moving us
rapidly<00:15:05.519> to<00:15:05.759> a<00:15:05.959> clean<00:15:06.320> energy<00:15:07.240> future<00:15:08.240> several
rapidly to a clean energy future several
rapidly to a clean energy future several
top<00:15:09.040> economists<00:15:09.720> are<00:15:10.040> co-authors<00:15:10.759> on<00:15:11.079> this
top economists are co-authors on this
top economists are co-authors on this
proposition<00:15:12.680> Jim<00:15:13.000> dep<00:15:13.240> peso<00:15:13.720> a<00:15:13.959> Republicans
proposition Jim dep peso a Republicans
proposition Jim dep peso a Republicans
for<00:15:14.839> Environmental<00:15:15.519> Protection<00:15:16.160> describes
for Environmental Protection describes
for Environmental Protection describes
it<00:15:16.839> thusly<00:15:17.800> transparent<00:15:18.800> market-based<00:15:19.519> does
it thusly transparent market-based does
it thusly transparent market-based does
not<00:15:20.360> enlarge<00:15:20.959> government<00:15:21.680> leaves<00:15:22.040> energy
not enlarge government leaves energy
not enlarge government leaves energy
decisions<00:15:23.079> to<00:15:23.320> individual<00:15:23.959> choices<00:15:24.800> sounds
decisions to individual choices sounds
decisions to individual choices sounds
like<00:15:25.440> a<00:15:25.720> conservative<00:15:26.720> climate<00:15:27.600> plan<00:15:28.720> but
like a conservative climate plan but
like a conservative climate plan but
instead<00:15:30.279> of<00:15:30.519> placing<00:15:30.880> a<00:15:31.079> rising<00:15:31.560> fee<00:15:32.040> on
instead of placing a rising fee on
instead of placing a rising fee on
carbon<00:15:32.680> emissions<00:15:33.199> to<00:15:33.360> make<00:15:33.600> fossil<00:15:33.959> fuels
carbon emissions to make fossil fuels
carbon emissions to make fossil fuels
pay<00:15:35.240> their<00:15:35.680> true<00:15:36.040> cost<00:15:36.319> to<00:15:36.639> society<00:15:37.600> our
pay their true cost to society our
pay their true cost to society our
governments<00:15:39.279> are<00:15:39.600> forcing<00:15:40.360> the<00:15:40.600> public<00:15:41.360> to
governments are forcing the public to
governments are forcing the public to
subsidize<00:15:42.680> fossil<00:15:43.079> fuels<00:15:43.720> by
subsidize fossil fuels by
subsidize fossil fuels by
4500<00:15:45.680> billion<00:15:46.240> dollar<00:15:46.759> per<00:15:47.040> year<00:15:48.120> worldwide
4500 billion dollar per year worldwide
4500 billion dollar per year worldwide
thus<00:15:49.440> encouraging<00:15:50.360> extraction<00:15:50.959> of<00:15:51.199> every
thus encouraging extraction of every
thus encouraging extraction of every
fossil<00:15:51.920> fuel<00:15:52.360> mountaintop<00:15:53.120> removal<00:15:54.040> long
fossil fuel mountaintop removal long
fossil fuel mountaintop removal long
wall<00:15:54.720> mining<00:15:55.240> fracking<00:15:55.959> tar<00:15:56.319> Sands<00:15:56.759> tar<00:15:57.040> Shale
wall mining fracking tar Sands tar Shale
wall mining fracking tar Sands tar Shale
deep<00:15:58.040> ocean<00:15:58.600> Arctic<00:15:59.519> drilling<00:16:00.519> this<00:16:00.880> path<00:16:01.360> if
deep ocean Arctic drilling this path if
deep ocean Arctic drilling this path if
continued<00:16:03.000> guarantees<00:16:03.959> that<00:16:04.120> we<00:16:04.240> will<00:16:04.480> pass
continued guarantees that we will pass
continued guarantees that we will pass
tipping<00:16:05.240> points<00:16:05.639> leading<00:16:06.000> to<00:16:06.240> ice<00:16:06.480> sheet
tipping points leading to ice sheet
tipping points leading to ice sheet
disintegration<00:16:07.600> that<00:16:07.759> will<00:16:08.040> accelerate<00:16:08.600> out
disintegration that will accelerate out
disintegration that will accelerate out
of<00:16:09.000> control<00:16:09.959> of<00:16:10.160> future<00:16:10.600> Generations<00:16:11.600> a<00:16:11.759> large
of control of future Generations a large
of control of future Generations a large
fraction<00:16:12.680> of<00:16:12.920> species<00:16:13.399> will<00:16:13.560> be<00:16:13.759> committed<00:16:14.160> to
fraction of species will be committed to
fraction of species will be committed to
Extinction<00:16:15.839> and<00:16:16.040> increasing<00:16:16.600> intensity<00:16:17.079> of
Extinction and increasing intensity of
Extinction and increasing intensity of
droughts<00:16:17.560> and<00:16:17.759> floods<00:16:18.240> will<00:16:18.560> severely<00:16:19.399> impact
droughts and floods will severely impact
droughts and floods will severely impact
bread<00:16:20.199> baskets<00:16:20.639> of<00:16:20.759> the<00:16:20.880> world<00:16:21.319> causing
bread baskets of the world causing
bread baskets of the world causing
massive<00:16:22.279> famin<00:16:23.279> and<00:16:23.560> economic
massive famin and economic
massive famin and economic
decline
decline
decline
imagine<00:16:28.279> a<00:16:28.600> giant<00:16:29.360> asteroid<00:16:30.360> on<00:16:30.519> a<00:16:30.759> direct
imagine a giant asteroid on a direct
imagine a giant asteroid on a direct
Collision<00:16:31.800> Course<00:16:32.399> with<00:16:32.959> earth<00:16:33.959> that<00:16:34.279> is<00:16:34.440> the
Collision Course with earth that is the
Collision Course with earth that is the
equivalent<00:16:35.759> of<00:16:36.000> what<00:16:36.160> we<00:16:36.319> face
equivalent of what we face
equivalent of what we face
now<00:16:38.399> yet<00:16:38.880> we<00:16:39.160> dither<00:16:40.160> taking<00:16:40.600> no<00:16:40.959> action<00:16:41.480> to
now yet we dither taking no action to
now yet we dither taking no action to
divert<00:16:42.880> the<00:16:43.120> asteroid<00:16:44.040> even<00:16:44.319> though<00:16:44.759> the
divert the asteroid even though the
divert the asteroid even though the
longer<00:16:45.279> we<00:16:45.519> wait<00:16:46.120> the<00:16:46.240> more<00:16:46.839> difficult<00:16:47.160> and
longer we wait the more difficult and
longer we wait the more difficult and
expensive<00:16:48.120> it<00:16:48.680> becomes<00:16:49.680> if<00:16:49.800> we<00:16:49.959> had<00:16:50.079> started
expensive it becomes if we had started
expensive it becomes if we had started
in<00:16:50.880> 2005<00:16:51.839> it<00:16:51.959> would<00:16:52.120> have<00:16:52.279> required<00:16:52.800> emission
in 2005 it would have required emission
in 2005 it would have required emission
reductions<00:16:53.880> of<00:16:54.079> 3%<00:16:54.839> per<00:16:55.079> year<00:16:55.440> to<00:16:55.639> restore
reductions of 3% per year to restore
reductions of 3% per year to restore
planetary<00:16:56.839> energy<00:16:57.279> balance<00:16:57.920> and<00:16:58.079> stabil<00:16:58.639> ized
planetary energy balance and stabil ized
planetary energy balance and stabil ized
climate<00:16:59.639> this<00:16:59.959> Century<00:17:00.959> if<00:17:01.079> we<00:17:01.199> start<00:17:01.600> next
climate this Century if we start next
climate this Century if we start next
year<00:17:02.560> it<00:17:02.680> is<00:17:02.880> 6%<00:17:03.560> per<00:17:04.000> year<00:17:05.000> if<00:17:05.079> we<00:17:05.240> wait<00:17:05.480> 10
year it is 6% per year if we wait 10
year it is 6% per year if we wait 10
years<00:17:06.160> it<00:17:06.280> is<00:17:06.520> 15%<00:17:07.520> per<00:17:07.720> year<00:17:08.079> extremely
years it is 15% per year extremely
years it is 15% per year extremely
difficult<00:17:09.160> and<00:17:09.400> expensive<00:17:10.039> perhaps
difficult and expensive perhaps
difficult and expensive perhaps
impossible<00:17:12.360> but<00:17:12.480> we<00:17:12.600> aren't<00:17:12.839> even
impossible but we aren't even
impossible but we aren't even
starting<00:17:15.439> so<00:17:15.640> now<00:17:15.839> you<00:17:16.039> know<00:17:16.919> what<00:17:17.120> I<00:17:17.280> know
starting so now you know what I know
starting so now you know what I know
that<00:17:17.959> is<00:17:18.120> moving<00:17:18.520> me<00:17:18.799> to<00:17:18.959> sound<00:17:19.360> this<00:17:20.000> alarm
that is moving me to sound this alarm
that is moving me to sound this alarm
clearly<00:17:21.480> I<00:17:21.640> haven't<00:17:22.000> got<00:17:22.280> this<00:17:22.600> message
clearly I haven't got this message
clearly I haven't got this message
across<00:17:24.319> the<00:17:24.520> science<00:17:25.079> is
across the science is
across the science is
clear<00:17:27.199> I<00:17:27.360> need<00:17:27.679> your<00:17:28.000> help<00:17:28.520> to<00:17:28.720> communicate
clear I need your help to communicate
clear I need your help to communicate
the<00:17:29.640> gravity<00:17:30.240> and<00:17:30.440> the<00:17:30.600> urgency<00:17:31.480> of<00:17:31.720> this
the gravity and the urgency of this
the gravity and the urgency of this
situation<00:17:32.720> and<00:17:32.960> its<00:17:33.720> Solutions<00:17:34.720> more
situation and its Solutions more
situation and its Solutions more
effectively<00:17:36.480> we<00:17:36.640> owe<00:17:36.880> it<00:17:37.080> to<00:17:37.280> our<00:17:37.480> children
effectively we owe it to our children
effectively we owe it to our children
and<00:17:38.280> grandchildren<00:17:39.280> thank
and grandchildren thank
and grandchildren thank
[Applause]
[Applause]
[Applause]
[Music]
you
James Hansen, climate, climate, change, global, warming, science, evidence, global, TED, TED-Ed, TED, Talk, TEDEducation, Ed
