The optimism bias - Tali Sharot
I'm<00:00:16.400> gonna<00:00:16.610> talk<00:00:16.880> to<00:00:16.910> you<00:00:17.270> about<00:00:17.420> optimism<00:00:18.110> or
I'm gonna talk to you about optimism or
I'm gonna talk to you about optimism or
more<00:00:19.460> precisely<00:00:19.640> the<00:00:20.150> optimism<00:00:20.570> bias<00:00:20.869> it's<00:00:21.800> a
more precisely the optimism bias it's a
more precisely the optimism bias it's a
cognitive<00:00:22.310> illusion<00:00:23.029> that<00:00:23.330> we've<00:00:23.600> been
cognitive illusion that we've been
cognitive illusion that we've been
studying<00:00:23.990> in<00:00:24.140> my<00:00:24.290> lab<00:00:24.500> for<00:00:24.800> the<00:00:24.860> past<00:00:24.890> few
studying in my lab for the past few
studying in my lab for the past few
years<00:00:25.550> and<00:00:25.790> 80%<00:00:26.420> of<00:00:26.810> us<00:00:26.930> have<00:00:27.140> it
years and 80% of us have it
years and 80% of us have it
it's<00:00:28.190> our<00:00:28.430> tendency<00:00:28.970> to<00:00:29.210> overestimate<00:00:29.750> our
it's our tendency to overestimate our
it's our tendency to overestimate our
likelihood<00:00:30.890> of<00:00:31.160> experiencing<00:00:31.820> good<00:00:32.059> events
likelihood of experiencing good events
likelihood of experiencing good events
in<00:00:32.540> our<00:00:32.629> lives<00:00:32.840> and<00:00:33.430> underestimates<00:00:34.430> our
in our lives and underestimates our
in our lives and underestimates our
likelihood<00:00:35.120> of<00:00:35.420> experiencing<00:00:35.960> bad<00:00:36.140> events<00:00:36.559> so
likelihood of experiencing bad events so
likelihood of experiencing bad events so
we<00:00:37.730> underestimate<00:00:38.420> a<00:00:38.570> likelihood<00:00:38.900> of
we underestimate a likelihood of
we underestimate a likelihood of
suffering<00:00:39.379> from<00:00:39.500> cancer<00:00:39.800> being<00:00:40.489> a<00:00:40.640> car
suffering from cancer being a car
suffering from cancer being a car
accident<00:00:41.390> we<00:00:42.020> overestimate<00:00:42.800> our<00:00:42.949> longevity
accident we overestimate our longevity
accident we overestimate our longevity
our<00:00:43.760> career<00:00:44.089> prospects<00:00:44.600> in<00:00:44.870> short<00:00:45.739> we're<00:00:45.979> more
our career prospects in short we're more
our career prospects in short we're more
optimistic<00:00:47.210> than<00:00:47.629> realistic<00:00:47.949> but<00:00:48.949> we<00:00:49.070> are
optimistic than realistic but we are
optimistic than realistic but we are
oblivious<00:00:49.460> to<00:00:49.670> the<00:00:49.850> fact<00:00:50.409> take<00:00:51.409> marriage<00:00:51.800> for
oblivious to the fact take marriage for
oblivious to the fact take marriage for
example<00:00:52.100> in<00:00:53.059> the<00:00:53.570> Western<00:00:53.930> world<00:00:53.960> divorce
example in the Western world divorce
example in the Western world divorce
rates<00:00:54.920> are<00:00:55.100> about<00:00:55.280> 40%<00:00:56.110> that<00:00:57.110> means<00:00:57.440> that<00:00:57.799> out
rates are about 40% that means that out
rates are about 40% that means that out
of<00:00:58.100> five<00:00:58.430> married<00:00:59.120> couples<00:00:59.629> two<00:01:00.379> will<00:01:00.860> end<00:01:01.070> up
of five married couples two will end up
of five married couples two will end up
splitting<00:01:01.519> their<00:01:01.850> assets<00:01:02.269> but<00:01:03.080> when<00:01:03.229> you<00:01:03.350> ask
splitting their assets but when you ask
splitting their assets but when you ask
newlyweds<00:01:04.280> about<00:01:04.729> their<00:01:04.970> own<00:01:05.150> likelihood<00:01:05.600> of
newlyweds about their own likelihood of
newlyweds about their own likelihood of
divorce<00:01:05.930> they<00:01:06.740> estimated<00:01:07.460> at<00:01:08.170> 0%<00:01:09.170> and<00:01:09.790> even
divorce they estimated at 0% and even
divorce they estimated at 0% and even
divorced<00:01:11.240> lawyers<00:01:11.600> who<00:01:11.780> should<00:01:12.020> really<00:01:12.500> know
divorced lawyers who should really know
divorced lawyers who should really know
better<00:01:13.040> hugely<00:01:14.030> underestimates
better hugely underestimates
better hugely underestimates
their<00:01:15.440> own<00:01:15.620> likelihood<00:01:16.130> of<00:01:16.190> divorce<00:01:16.490> so<00:01:17.390> it
their own likelihood of divorce so it
their own likelihood of divorce so it
turns<00:01:18.140> out<00:01:18.290> that<00:01:18.350> optimists<00:01:18.920> are<00:01:19.010> not<00:01:19.190> less
turns out that optimists are not less
turns out that optimists are not less
likely<00:01:19.460> to<00:01:20.000> divorce<00:01:20.150> but<00:01:21.050> they<00:01:21.230> are<00:01:21.410> more
likely to divorce but they are more
likely to divorce but they are more
likely<00:01:21.890> to<00:01:22.070> remarried<00:01:22.550> in<00:01:22.850> the<00:01:23.780> words<00:01:23.990> of
likely to remarried in the words of
likely to remarried in the words of
Samuel<00:01:24.620> Johnson<00:01:25.210> remarriage<00:01:26.210> is<00:01:26.510> a<00:01:26.570> tribe<00:01:26.960> of
Samuel Johnson remarriage is a tribe of
Samuel Johnson remarriage is a tribe of
Hope<00:01:27.440> over<00:01:27.770> experience
so<00:01:32.000> if<00:01:32.510> we're<00:01:33.350> married<00:01:33.590> we're<00:01:34.100> more<00:01:34.340> likely<00:01:34.550> to
so if we're married we're more likely to
so if we're married we're more likely to
have<00:01:35.300> kids<00:01:35.690> and<00:01:36.020> we<00:01:36.680> all<00:01:36.830> think<00:01:37.100> our<00:01:37.190> kids<00:01:37.490> will
have kids and we all think our kids will
have kids and we all think our kids will
be<00:01:37.700> especially<00:01:38.360> talented<00:01:38.570> this<00:01:39.560> by<00:01:39.740> the<00:01:39.800> way
be especially talented this by the way
be especially talented this by the way
is<00:01:40.160> my<00:01:40.280> two-year-old<00:01:40.700> nephew<00:01:40.880> guy<00:01:41.300> and<00:01:41.690> I<00:01:42.140> just
is my two-year-old nephew guy and I just
is my two-year-old nephew guy and I just
want<00:01:42.500> to<00:01:42.530> make<00:01:42.680> it<00:01:42.830> absolutely<00:01:43.010> clear<00:01:43.400> that
want to make it absolutely clear that
want to make it absolutely clear that
he's<00:01:43.940> a<00:01:43.970> really<00:01:44.540> bad<00:01:44.660> example<00:01:44.930> of<00:01:45.560> the
he's a really bad example of the
he's a really bad example of the
optimism<00:01:46.100> bias<00:01:46.400> because<00:01:46.820> he<00:01:47.120> is<00:01:47.300> in<00:01:47.540> fact
optimism bias because he is in fact
optimism bias because he is in fact
uniquely<00:01:48.590> talented<00:01:49.300> and<00:01:50.350> I'm<00:01:51.350> not<00:01:51.530> alone<00:01:51.830> out
uniquely talented and I'm not alone out
uniquely talented and I'm not alone out
of<00:01:52.640> four<00:01:53.090> British<00:01:53.420> people<00:01:53.840> free<00:01:54.560> said<00:01:54.920> that
of four British people free said that
of four British people free said that
they<00:01:55.820> were<00:01:55.880> optimistic<00:01:56.210> about<00:01:56.930> the<00:01:57.290> future<00:01:57.320> of
they were optimistic about the future of
they were optimistic about the future of
their<00:01:57.890> own<00:01:57.950> families<00:01:58.580> that's<00:01:59.090> seventy<00:01:59.540> five
their own families that's seventy five
their own families that's seventy five
percent<00:01:59.979> but<00:02:00.979> only<00:02:01.190> thirty<00:02:01.820> percent<00:02:02.270> said
percent but only thirty percent said
percent but only thirty percent said
that<00:02:03.050> they<00:02:03.350> thought<00:02:03.530> families<00:02:04.040> in<00:02:04.220> general
that they thought families in general
that they thought families in general
are<00:02:04.970> doing<00:02:05.420> better<00:02:05.660> than<00:02:05.990> a<00:02:06.020> few<00:02:06.259> generations
are doing better than a few generations
are doing better than a few generations
ago<00:02:06.979> and<00:02:07.940> this<00:02:08.300> is<00:02:08.360> a<00:02:08.509> really<00:02:08.810> important<00:02:09.170> point
ago and this is a really important point
ago and this is a really important point
because<00:02:09.470> we're<00:02:10.250> optimistic<00:02:10.850> about<00:02:10.940> ourselves
because we're optimistic about ourselves
because we're optimistic about ourselves
we're<00:02:11.900> optimistic<00:02:12.230> about<00:02:12.470> our<00:02:12.590> kids<00:02:12.920> we're
we're optimistic about our kids we're
we're optimistic about our kids we're
optimistic<00:02:13.790> about<00:02:14.060> our<00:02:14.180> families<00:02:14.720> but<00:02:15.350> we're
optimistic about our families but we're
optimistic about our families but we're
not<00:02:15.800> so<00:02:16.040> optimistic<00:02:16.490> about<00:02:16.790> the<00:02:17.060> guy<00:02:17.240> sitting
not so optimistic about the guy sitting
not so optimistic about the guy sitting
next<00:02:17.750> to<00:02:17.959> us<00:02:18.140> and<00:02:18.470> we're<00:02:18.950> somewhat
next to us and we're somewhat
next to us and we're somewhat
pessimistic<00:02:19.700> about<00:02:20.480> the<00:02:21.020> faith<00:02:21.260> of<00:02:21.440> our
pessimistic about the faith of our
pessimistic about the faith of our
fellow<00:02:21.860> citizens<00:02:21.950> and<00:02:22.670> the<00:02:22.970> fate<00:02:23.150> of<00:02:23.180> our
fellow citizens and the fate of our
fellow citizens and the fate of our
country<00:02:24.040> but<00:02:25.040> private<00:02:25.670> optimism<00:02:26.270> about<00:02:26.570> our
country but private optimism about our
country but private optimism about our
own<00:02:27.110> personal<00:02:27.560> future<00:02:28.280> remains<00:02:29.209> persistent
own personal future remains persistent
own personal future remains persistent
and<00:02:30.920> it<00:02:31.220> doesn't<00:02:31.489> mean<00:02:31.610> that<00:02:31.760> we<00:02:31.880> think<00:02:32.090> things
and it doesn't mean that we think things
and it doesn't mean that we think things
will<00:02:32.450> just<00:02:32.510> like<00:02:32.780> magically<00:02:33.530> turn<00:02:33.709> out<00:02:33.890> okay
will just like magically turn out okay
will just like magically turn out okay
but<00:02:35.030> rather<00:02:35.239> that<00:02:35.570> we<00:02:35.630> have<00:02:35.930> the<00:02:36.110> unique
but rather that we have the unique
but rather that we have the unique
ability<00:02:37.160> to<00:02:37.370> make<00:02:37.730> itself<00:02:38.140> now<00:02:39.140> I'm<00:02:39.590> a
ability to make itself now I'm a
ability to make itself now I'm a
scientist<00:02:40.310> I<00:02:40.519> do<00:02:40.580> experiments<00:02:41.420> so<00:02:41.900> to<00:02:41.959> show
scientist I do experiments so to show
scientist I do experiments so to show
you<00:02:42.470> what<00:02:42.620> I<00:02:42.739> mean<00:02:43.100> I'm<00:02:43.340> gonna<00:02:43.730> do<00:02:43.910> an
you what I mean I'm gonna do an
you what I mean I'm gonna do an
experiment<00:02:44.239> here<00:02:44.480> with<00:02:44.810> you<00:02:44.989> okay<00:02:45.440> so<00:02:45.769> I'm
experiment here with you okay so I'm
experiment here with you okay so I'm
gonna<00:02:46.610> give<00:02:46.880> you<00:02:47.150> a<00:02:47.180> list<00:02:47.600> of<00:02:47.810> abilities<00:02:48.049> and
gonna give you a list of abilities and
gonna give you a list of abilities and
characteristics<00:02:49.400> and<00:02:49.660> I<00:02:50.660> want<00:02:50.870> you<00:02:50.959> to<00:02:51.049> think
characteristics and I want you to think
characteristics and I want you to think
for<00:02:51.590> each<00:02:51.830> of<00:02:51.980> these<00:02:52.070> abilities<00:02:52.640> where<00:02:53.360> you
for each of these abilities where you
for each of these abilities where you
stand<00:02:53.810> relative<00:02:54.380> to<00:02:54.860> the<00:02:54.950> rest<00:02:55.160> of<00:02:55.250> the
stand relative to the rest of the
stand relative to the rest of the
population<00:02:56.530> the<00:02:57.530> first<00:02:57.860> one<00:02:58.070> is<00:02:58.340> getting
population the first one is getting
population the first one is getting
along<00:02:59.540> well<00:02:59.989> with<00:03:00.019> others<00:03:00.519> who<00:03:01.519> here<00:03:01.850> believes
along well with others who here believes
along well with others who here believes
they're<00:03:02.480> at<00:03:02.600> the<00:03:02.870> bottom<00:03:03.410> 25%
okay<00:03:07.439> that's<00:03:07.709> about<00:03:07.920> ten<00:03:08.129> people<00:03:08.459> out<00:03:08.579> of<00:03:08.840> 1500
okay that's about ten people out of 1500
okay that's about ten people out of 1500
I<00:03:09.870> think<00:03:10.310> who<00:03:11.310> believes<00:03:11.670> they're<00:03:11.939> at<00:03:12.060> the<00:03:12.299> top
I think who believes they're at the top
I think who believes they're at the top
25%<00:03:14.719> that's<00:03:15.719> most<00:03:16.230> of<00:03:16.379> us<00:03:16.469> here<00:03:16.969> okay<00:03:17.969> now<00:03:18.359> do
25% that's most of us here okay now do
25% that's most of us here okay now do
the<00:03:18.689> same<00:03:18.930> for<00:03:19.200> your<00:03:19.469> driving<00:03:20.310> ability<00:03:21.980> how
the same for your driving ability how
the same for your driving ability how
interesting<00:03:24.239> are<00:03:24.359> you<00:03:24.480> how<00:03:25.260> attractive<00:03:26.099> are
interesting are you how attractive are
interesting are you how attractive are
you<00:03:27.620> how<00:03:28.620> honest<00:03:29.129> are<00:03:29.250> you<00:03:29.900> and<00:03:30.920> finally<00:03:31.920> how
you how honest are you and finally how
you how honest are you and finally how
modest<00:03:32.879> are<00:03:33.090> you
modest are you
modest are you
so<00:03:36.270> most<00:03:36.540> of<00:03:36.660> us<00:03:36.810> put<00:03:37.110> ourselves<00:03:37.230> above
so most of us put ourselves above
so most of us put ourselves above
average<00:03:38.520> on<00:03:38.790> most<00:03:39.150> of<00:03:39.330> these<00:03:39.450> abilities<00:03:40.340> now
average on most of these abilities now
average on most of these abilities now
this<00:03:41.610> is<00:03:41.760> statistically<00:03:42.420> impossible<00:03:42.540> we
this is statistically impossible we
this is statistically impossible we
can't<00:03:43.170> all<00:03:43.590> be<00:03:43.650> better<00:03:44.310> than<00:03:44.550> everyone<00:03:44.970> else
can't all be better than everyone else
can't all be better than everyone else
but<00:03:47.490> if<00:03:47.910> we<00:03:48.690> believe<00:03:48.870> we're<00:03:49.530> better<00:03:49.710> than<00:03:49.800> the
but if we believe we're better than the
but if we believe we're better than the
other<00:03:50.190> guy<00:03:50.460> well<00:03:50.700> that<00:03:50.940> means<00:03:51.210> that<00:03:51.630> we're
other guy well that means that we're
other guy well that means that we're
more<00:03:51.990> likely<00:03:52.230> to<00:03:52.500> get<00:03:52.650> that<00:03:52.890> promotion<00:03:53.100> to
more likely to get that promotion to
more likely to get that promotion to
remain<00:03:54.270> married<00:03:54.570> because<00:03:54.810> we're<00:03:55.020> more<00:03:55.170> social
remain married because we're more social
remain married because we're more social
more<00:03:55.800> interesting<00:03:56.460> and<00:03:56.870> it's<00:03:57.870> a<00:03:57.960> global
more interesting and it's a global
more interesting and it's a global
phenomena<00:03:58.920> the<00:03:59.580> optimism<00:04:00.300> bias<00:04:00.600> has<00:04:01.020> been
phenomena the optimism bias has been
phenomena the optimism bias has been
observed<00:04:01.620> in<00:04:01.860> many<00:04:02.340> different<00:04:02.640> countries<00:04:02.970> in
observed in many different countries in
observed in many different countries in
Western<00:04:04.380> cultures<00:04:04.890> and<00:04:05.160> non-western
Western cultures and non-western
Western cultures and non-western
cultures<00:04:06.240> and<00:04:06.690> females<00:04:07.110> and<00:04:07.260> males<00:04:07.440> and<00:04:07.920> kids
cultures and females and males and kids
cultures and females and males and kids
in<00:04:08.490> the<00:04:08.610> elderly<00:04:09.000> it's<00:04:09.960> quite<00:04:10.260> widespread<00:04:10.580> but
in the elderly it's quite widespread but
in the elderly it's quite widespread but
the<00:04:11.910> question<00:04:12.390> is<00:04:12.600> is<00:04:12.930> it<00:04:13.440> good<00:04:13.800> for<00:04:13.830> us<00:04:14.720> so
the question is is it good for us so
the question is is it good for us so
some<00:04:15.930> people<00:04:16.080> say<00:04:16.380> no<00:04:16.640> some<00:04:17.640> people<00:04:17.670> say<00:04:18.180> the
some people say no some people say the
some people say no some people say the
secret<00:04:19.049> to<00:04:19.410> happiness<00:04:19.590> is<00:04:20.100> low<00:04:21.000> expectations
secret to happiness is low expectations
secret to happiness is low expectations
I<00:04:22.460> think<00:04:23.460> the<00:04:23.760> logic<00:04:24.120> is<00:04:24.240> something<00:04:24.540> like<00:04:24.660> this
I think the logic is something like this
I think the logic is something like this
if<00:04:25.530> we<00:04:26.250> don't<00:04:26.490> expect<00:04:26.820> greatness<00:04:27.150> if<00:04:27.660> we<00:04:27.960> don't
if we don't expect greatness if we don't
if we don't expect greatness if we don't
expect<00:04:28.620> to<00:04:28.740> find<00:04:29.010> love<00:04:29.280> and<00:04:29.670> be<00:04:29.760> healthy<00:04:30.240> and
expect to find love and be healthy and
expect to find love and be healthy and
successful<00:04:30.810> but<00:04:31.650> we're<00:04:31.800> not<00:04:31.920> gonna<00:04:32.040> be
successful but we're not gonna be
successful but we're not gonna be
disappointed<00:04:32.370> when<00:04:32.850> these<00:04:33.000> things<00:04:33.210> don't
disappointed when these things don't
disappointed when these things don't
happen<00:04:33.600> and<00:04:34.100> if<00:04:35.100> we're<00:04:35.400> not<00:04:35.580> disappointed
happen and if we're not disappointed
happen and if we're not disappointed
when<00:04:36.510> good<00:04:36.870> things<00:04:37.080> don't<00:04:37.290> happen<00:04:37.470> and<00:04:37.890> we're
when good things don't happen and we're
when good things don't happen and we're
pleasantly<00:04:38.490> surprised<00:04:38.850> when<00:04:39.060> they<00:04:39.180> do<00:04:39.240> we
pleasantly surprised when they do we
pleasantly surprised when they do we
will<00:04:40.170> be<00:04:40.200> happy<00:04:40.760> so<00:04:41.760> it's<00:04:41.910> a<00:04:42.000> very<00:04:42.270> good<00:04:42.510> theory
will be happy so it's a very good theory
will be happy so it's a very good theory
but<00:04:43.110> it<00:04:43.470> turns<00:04:43.800> out<00:04:43.980> to<00:04:44.160> be<00:04:44.190> wrong<00:04:44.520> for<00:04:45.180> three
but it turns out to be wrong for three
but it turns out to be wrong for three
reasons<00:04:45.890> number<00:04:46.890> one<00:04:47.420> whatever<00:04:48.420> happens
reasons number one whatever happens
reasons number one whatever happens
whether<00:04:49.350> you<00:04:49.590> succeed<00:04:49.800> or<00:04:50.340> you<00:04:50.400> fail<00:04:50.520> people
whether you succeed or you fail people
whether you succeed or you fail people
with<00:04:51.690> high<00:04:51.870> expectations<00:04:52.650> always<00:04:53.400> feel
with high expectations always feel
with high expectations always feel
better<00:04:54.110> because<00:04:55.110> how<00:04:55.590> we<00:04:55.650> feel<00:04:56.040> when<00:04:56.310> we<00:04:56.430> get
better because how we feel when we get
better because how we feel when we get
dumped<00:04:57.090> or<00:04:57.240> when<00:04:57.570> employee<00:04:58.080> of<00:04:58.200> the<00:04:58.320> month
dumped or when employee of the month
dumped or when employee of the month
depends<00:04:59.610> on<00:04:59.670> how<00:04:59.850> we<00:04:59.910> interpret<00:05:00.750> that<00:05:00.870> event
depends on how we interpret that event
depends on how we interpret that event
the<00:05:02.630> psychologists<00:05:03.630> Margaret<00:05:04.020> Marshall<00:05:04.260> and
the psychologists Margaret Marshall and
the psychologists Margaret Marshall and
John<00:05:05.100> Brown<00:05:05.430> studied<00:05:06.420> students<00:05:07.110> with<00:05:07.290> high
John Brown studied students with high
John Brown studied students with high
and<00:05:07.800> low<00:05:07.890> expectations<00:05:08.250> and<00:05:08.850> they<00:05:09.450> found<00:05:09.750> that
and low expectations and they found that
and low expectations and they found that
doing<00:05:10.380> people<00:05:10.710> with<00:05:10.920> high<00:05:11.190> expectations
doing people with high expectations
doing people with high expectations
succeeds<00:05:12.420> they<00:05:13.080> attribute<00:05:13.680> that<00:05:13.860> success<00:05:14.130> to
succeeds they attribute that success to
succeeds they attribute that success to
their<00:05:14.700> own<00:05:14.850> traits<00:05:15.180> I<00:05:15.480> am<00:05:16.020> a<00:05:16.080> genius
their own traits I am a genius
their own traits I am a genius
therefore<00:05:17.160> I<00:05:17.190> got<00:05:17.340> an<00:05:17.460> A<00:05:17.640> therefore<00:05:18.210> I'll<00:05:18.270> get
therefore I got an A therefore I'll get
therefore I got an A therefore I'll get
an<00:05:18.570> A<00:05:18.720> again<00:05:19.110> and<00:05:19.260> again<00:05:19.440> in<00:05:19.590> the<00:05:19.650> future
an A again and again in the future
an A again and again in the future
when<00:05:21.330> they<00:05:21.480> failed<00:05:21.840> it<00:05:22.320> wasn't<00:05:22.620> because<00:05:22.740> they
when they failed it wasn't because they
when they failed it wasn't because they
were<00:05:23.130> dumb<00:05:23.490> but<00:05:24.180> because<00:05:24.600> the<00:05:24.750> exam<00:05:25.110> just
were dumb but because the exam just
were dumb but because the exam just
happened<00:05:25.830> to<00:05:25.980> be<00:05:26.130> unfair<00:05:26.580> next<00:05:27.330> time<00:05:27.510> they
happened to be unfair next time they
happened to be unfair next time they
will<00:05:27.780> do<00:05:27.930> better<00:05:28.850> people<00:05:29.850> with<00:05:30.090> low
will do better people with low
will do better people with low
expectations<00:05:31.170> did<00:05:31.470> the<00:05:31.590> opposite<00:05:32.040> so<00:05:32.640> when
expectations did the opposite so when
expectations did the opposite so when
they<00:05:33.180> failed<00:05:33.480> it<00:05:33.930> was<00:05:34.110> because<00:05:34.380> they<00:05:34.470> were
they failed it was because they were
they failed it was because they were
dumb<00:05:34.800> and<00:05:35.100> when<00:05:35.640> they<00:05:35.790> succeeded<00:05:36.360> it<00:05:36.750> was
dumb and when they succeeded it was
dumb and when they succeeded it was
because<00:05:37.320> the<00:05:37.440> exam<00:05:37.770> just<00:05:38.010> happened<00:05:38.490> to<00:05:38.640> be
because the exam just happened to be
because the exam just happened to be
really<00:05:39.060> easy<00:05:39.300> next<00:05:40.080> time<00:05:40.260> reality<00:05:40.950> would
really easy next time reality would
really easy next time reality would
catch<00:05:41.280> up<00:05:41.460> with<00:05:41.490> them<00:05:41.790> so<00:05:41.970> they<00:05:42.600> felt<00:05:42.810> worse
catch up with them so they felt worse
catch up with them so they felt worse
number<00:05:44.790> two<00:05:45.650> regardless<00:05:46.650> of<00:05:46.800> the<00:05:46.890> outcome
number two regardless of the outcome
number two regardless of the outcome
the<00:05:48.330> pure<00:05:48.719> act<00:05:48.990> of<00:05:49.289> anticipation<00:05:49.919> makes<00:05:50.490> us
the pure act of anticipation makes us
the pure act of anticipation makes us
happy<00:05:51.319> the<00:05:52.319> behavioral<00:05:52.919> economist<00:05:53.520> Georg
happy the behavioral economist Georg
happy the behavioral economist Georg
Lowenstein<00:05:54.479> asked<00:05:55.110> students<00:05:55.499> including
Lowenstein asked students including
Lowenstein asked students including
university<00:05:56.490> to<00:05:56.729> imagine<00:05:57.300> getting<00:05:57.509> a
university to imagine getting a
university to imagine getting a
passionate<00:05:58.169> kiss<00:05:58.379> from<00:05:58.409> a<00:05:58.650> celebrity<00:05:58.919> any
passionate kiss from a celebrity any
passionate kiss from a celebrity any
celebrity<00:06:00.270> then<00:06:00.990> he<00:06:01.110> said<00:06:01.610> how<00:06:02.610> much<00:06:02.759> are<00:06:02.939> you
celebrity then he said how much are you
celebrity then he said how much are you
willing<00:06:03.120> to<00:06:03.300> pay<00:06:03.599> to<00:06:03.900> get<00:06:04.469> a<00:06:04.499> kiss<00:06:04.740> from<00:06:04.770> a
willing to pay to get a kiss from a
willing to pay to get a kiss from a
celebrity<00:06:05.309> if<00:06:05.759> the<00:06:06.150> kiss<00:06:06.360> was<00:06:06.539> delivered
celebrity if the kiss was delivered
celebrity if the kiss was delivered
immediately<00:06:07.229> in<00:06:08.419> three<00:06:09.419> hours<00:06:09.749> in<00:06:10.229> 24<00:06:11.009> hours
immediately in three hours in 24 hours
immediately in three hours in 24 hours
in<00:06:11.669> three<00:06:12.509> days<00:06:12.689> in<00:06:13.110> one<00:06:13.469> year<00:06:13.529> in<00:06:14.069> 10<00:06:14.309> years<00:06:14.809> he
in three days in one year in 10 years he
in three days in one year in 10 years he
found<00:06:16.139> that<00:06:16.469> the<00:06:16.589> students<00:06:16.949> were<00:06:17.039> willing<00:06:17.189> to
found that the students were willing to
found that the students were willing to
pay<00:06:17.610> the<00:06:17.759> most<00:06:17.939> not<00:06:18.870> to<00:06:19.110> get<00:06:19.289> a<00:06:19.319> kiss
pay the most not to get a kiss
pay the most not to get a kiss
immediately<00:06:20.249> but<00:06:20.939> to<00:06:21.089> get<00:06:21.300> a<00:06:21.330> kiss<00:06:21.689> in<00:06:21.960> three
immediately but to get a kiss in three
immediately but to get a kiss in three
days<00:06:23.089> they<00:06:24.089> were<00:06:24.149> willing<00:06:24.479> to<00:06:24.629> pay<00:06:24.990> extra<00:06:25.649> in
days they were willing to pay extra in
days they were willing to pay extra in
order<00:06:26.520> to<00:06:26.789> wait<00:06:27.529> now<00:06:28.529> they<00:06:28.949> weren't<00:06:29.099> willing
order to wait now they weren't willing
order to wait now they weren't willing
to<00:06:29.490> wait<00:06:29.610> a<00:06:29.639> year<00:06:29.759> or<00:06:30.029> ten<00:06:30.240> years<00:06:30.449> I<00:06:30.539> mean<00:06:30.689> no
to wait a year or ten years I mean no
to wait a year or ten years I mean no
one<00:06:30.899> wants<00:06:30.930> an<00:06:31.199> aging<00:06:31.589> celebrity<00:06:31.979> but<00:06:32.189> three
one wants an aging celebrity but three
one wants an aging celebrity but three
days<00:06:33.499> seemed<00:06:34.499> to<00:06:34.710> be<00:06:34.919> the<00:06:35.669> optimum<00:06:36.180> amount<00:06:36.979> so
days seemed to be the optimum amount so
days seemed to be the optimum amount so
why<00:06:38.129> is<00:06:38.189> that<00:06:39.319> well<00:06:40.319> if<00:06:40.649> you<00:06:41.039> get<00:06:41.189> the<00:06:41.339> kiss<00:06:41.520> now
why is that well if you get the kiss now
why is that well if you get the kiss now
it's<00:06:41.999> over<00:06:42.180> and<00:06:42.389> done<00:06:42.479> with<00:06:42.509> but<00:06:43.349> if<00:06:43.409> you<00:06:43.499> get
it's over and done with but if you get
it's over and done with but if you get
the<00:06:43.770> kiss<00:06:43.919> in<00:06:44.069> three<00:06:44.219> days<00:06:44.430> well<00:06:45.240> that's<00:06:45.569> three
the kiss in three days well that's three
the kiss in three days well that's three
days<00:06:45.990> of<00:06:46.319> jittery<00:06:46.979> anticipation<00:06:47.639> the<00:06:48.029> thrill
days of jittery anticipation the thrill
days of jittery anticipation the thrill
of<00:06:48.270> the<00:06:48.419> wait<00:06:48.659> the<00:06:49.050> students<00:06:49.710> wanted<00:06:50.039> that
of the wait the students wanted that
of the wait the students wanted that
time<00:06:50.460> to<00:06:50.879> imagine<00:06:51.810> where<00:06:52.050> is<00:06:52.139> it<00:06:52.259> gonna<00:06:52.379> happen
time to imagine where is it gonna happen
time to imagine where is it gonna happen
how<00:06:53.430> is<00:06:53.580> it<00:06:53.729> going<00:06:53.879> to<00:06:53.939> happen<00:06:54.499> anticipation
how is it going to happen anticipation
how is it going to happen anticipation
made<00:06:56.009> them<00:06:56.219> happy<00:06:57.139> this<00:06:58.139> is<00:06:58.199> by<00:06:58.469> the<00:06:58.499> way<00:06:58.649> why
made them happy this is by the way why
made them happy this is by the way why
people<00:06:59.310> prefer<00:06:59.430> Friday<00:07:00.029> to<00:07:00.209> Sunday<00:07:00.629> it's<00:07:01.349> a
people prefer Friday to Sunday it's a
people prefer Friday to Sunday it's a
really<00:07:01.800> curious<00:07:02.099> fact<00:07:02.430> because<00:07:02.879> Friday<00:07:03.749> is<00:07:03.990> a
really curious fact because Friday is a
really curious fact because Friday is a
day<00:07:04.139> of<00:07:04.379> work<00:07:04.649> and<00:07:05.039> Sunday<00:07:05.639> is<00:07:05.699> a<00:07:05.759> day<00:07:05.969> of
day of work and Sunday is a day of
day of work and Sunday is a day of
pleasure<00:07:06.419> so<00:07:06.870> you<00:07:06.930> would<00:07:07.080> assume<00:07:07.169> that<00:07:07.620> people
pleasure so you would assume that people
pleasure so you would assume that people
will<00:07:08.159> prefer<00:07:08.520> Sunday<00:07:09.029> but<00:07:09.870> they<00:07:10.199> don't<00:07:10.409> it's
will prefer Sunday but they don't it's
will prefer Sunday but they don't it's
not<00:07:11.520> because<00:07:11.939> they<00:07:12.120> really<00:07:12.479> really<00:07:12.749> like
not because they really really like
not because they really really like
being<00:07:13.139> in<00:07:13.259> the<00:07:13.379> office<00:07:13.409> and<00:07:13.979> they<00:07:14.099> can't<00:07:14.339> stand
being in the office and they can't stand
being in the office and they can't stand
strolling<00:07:15.149> in<00:07:15.209> the<00:07:15.240> park<00:07:15.330> or<00:07:15.779> having<00:07:16.110> a<00:07:16.199> lazy
strolling in the park or having a lazy
strolling in the park or having a lazy
brunch<00:07:16.800> we<00:07:17.490> know<00:07:17.729> that<00:07:17.999> because<00:07:18.599> when<00:07:18.959> you<00:07:19.020> ask
brunch we know that because when you ask
brunch we know that because when you ask
people<00:07:19.830> about<00:07:20.039> their<00:07:20.219> ultimate<00:07:21.059> favorite<00:07:21.449> day
people about their ultimate favorite day
people about their ultimate favorite day
of<00:07:21.629> the<00:07:21.749> week
of the week
of the week
surprise<00:07:22.889> surprise<00:07:23.069> Saturday<00:07:24.029> comes<00:07:24.389> in<00:07:24.509> at
surprise surprise Saturday comes in at
surprise surprise Saturday comes in at
first<00:07:24.809> then<00:07:25.499> Friday
first then Friday
first then Friday
then<00:07:26.969> Sunday<00:07:27.770> people<00:07:28.770> prefer<00:07:29.279> Friday<00:07:29.639> because
then Sunday people prefer Friday because
then Sunday people prefer Friday because
Friday<00:07:30.509> brings<00:07:30.870> with<00:07:31.050> it<00:07:31.169> the<00:07:31.469> anticipation
Friday brings with it the anticipation
Friday brings with it the anticipation
of<00:07:32.490> the<00:07:33.180> weekend<00:07:33.509> ahead<00:07:33.629> all<00:07:34.110> the<00:07:34.559> plans<00:07:34.830> that
of the weekend ahead all the plans that
of the weekend ahead all the plans that
you<00:07:35.189> have<00:07:35.370> on<00:07:35.759> Sunday<00:07:36.479> the<00:07:36.779> only<00:07:37.080> thing<00:07:37.259> you
you have on Sunday the only thing you
you have on Sunday the only thing you
can<00:07:37.620> look<00:07:37.830> forward<00:07:38.069> to<00:07:38.189> is<00:07:38.550> the<00:07:38.939> workweek
can look forward to is the workweek
can look forward to is the workweek
so<00:07:41.339> optimists<00:07:42.330> are<00:07:42.449> people<00:07:42.899> who<00:07:43.229> expect<00:07:43.919> more
so optimists are people who expect more
so optimists are people who expect more
kisses<00:07:44.459> in<00:07:44.550> their<00:07:44.669> future<00:07:44.999> more<00:07:45.899> strolls<00:07:46.409> in
kisses in their future more strolls in
kisses in their future more strolls in
the<00:07:46.649> park<00:07:46.860> and<00:07:47.189> that<00:07:48.120> anticipation<00:07:48.709> enhances
the park and that anticipation enhances
the park and that anticipation enhances
their<00:07:49.949> well-being<00:07:50.129> in<00:07:51.089> fact<00:07:52.020> without<00:07:52.559> the
their well-being in fact without the
their well-being in fact without the
optimism<00:07:53.819> bias<00:07:53.999> we<00:07:54.809> would<00:07:54.990> all<00:07:55.229> be<00:07:55.439> slightly
optimism bias we would all be slightly
optimism bias we would all be slightly
depressed<00:07:57.019> people<00:07:58.019> with<00:07:58.229> mild<00:07:58.560> depression
depressed people with mild depression
depressed people with mild depression
they<00:08:00.060> don't<00:08:00.329> have<00:08:00.659> a
they don't have a
they don't have a
when<00:08:01.290> they<00:08:01.410> look<00:08:01.560> into<00:08:01.770> the<00:08:01.860> future<00:08:02.220> they're
when they look into the future they're
when they look into the future they're
actually<00:08:03.180> more<00:08:03.330> realistic<00:08:03.990> than<00:08:04.260> people
actually more realistic than people
actually more realistic than people
healthy<00:08:05.910> individuals<00:08:06.420> but<00:08:07.230> individuals<00:08:07.860> with
healthy individuals but individuals with
healthy individuals but individuals with
severe<00:08:08.460> depression<00:08:08.610> they<00:08:09.270> have<00:08:09.480> a
severe depression they have a
severe depression they have a
pessimistic<00:08:10.110> bias<00:08:10.320> so<00:08:11.160> they<00:08:11.460> tend<00:08:11.760> to<00:08:11.820> expect
pessimistic bias so they tend to expect
pessimistic bias so they tend to expect
the<00:08:12.750> future<00:08:12.990> to<00:08:13.290> be<00:08:13.440> worse<00:08:13.740> than<00:08:14.130> it<00:08:14.280> ends<00:08:14.580> up
the future to be worse than it ends up
the future to be worse than it ends up
being<00:08:15.740> so<00:08:16.740> optimism<00:08:17.550> changes<00:08:17.910> subjective
being so optimism changes subjective
being so optimism changes subjective
reality<00:08:18.840> the<00:08:19.260> way<00:08:19.350> we<00:08:19.530> expect<00:08:19.920> the<00:08:20.040> world<00:08:20.190> to
reality the way we expect the world to
reality the way we expect the world to
be<00:08:20.520> changes<00:08:21.240> the<00:08:21.390> way<00:08:21.510> we<00:08:21.690> see<00:08:21.930> it<00:08:21.960> but<00:08:22.890> it<00:08:22.980> also
be changes the way we see it but it also
be changes the way we see it but it also
changes<00:08:23.850> objective<00:08:24.840> reality<00:08:25.320> it<00:08:26.070> acts<00:08:26.370> as<00:08:26.640> a
changes objective reality it acts as a
changes objective reality it acts as a
self-fulfilling<00:08:27.210> prophecy<00:08:27.510> and<00:08:28.320> that<00:08:28.820> is<00:08:29.820> a
self-fulfilling prophecy and that is a
self-fulfilling prophecy and that is a
third<00:08:30.150> reason<00:08:30.390> why<00:08:30.750> lowering<00:08:31.230> your
third reason why lowering your
third reason why lowering your
expectations<00:08:31.650> will<00:08:32.310> not<00:08:32.520> make<00:08:32.730> you<00:08:32.880> happy
expectations will not make you happy
expectations will not make you happy
controlled<00:08:34.590> experiments<00:08:35.160> have<00:08:35.250> shown<00:08:35.280> that
controlled experiments have shown that
controlled experiments have shown that
optimism<00:08:36.270> is<00:08:36.540> not<00:08:36.600> only<00:08:37.050> related<00:08:37.440> to<00:08:37.800> success
optimism is not only related to success
optimism is not only related to success
it<00:08:38.640> leads<00:08:39.030> to<00:08:39.240> success<00:08:40.040> optimism<00:08:41.040> leads<00:08:41.460> to
it leads to success optimism leads to
it leads to success optimism leads to
success<00:08:42.060> in<00:08:42.330> academia<00:08:43.140> and<00:08:43.560> sports<00:08:43.860> and
success in academia and sports and
success in academia and sports and
politics<00:08:44.670> and<00:08:45.120> maybe<00:08:45.750> the<00:08:45.900> most<00:08:46.080> surprising
politics and maybe the most surprising
politics and maybe the most surprising
benefit<00:08:47.370> of<00:08:47.490> optimism<00:08:47.970> is<00:08:48.320> health<00:08:49.320> if<00:08:49.710> we
benefit of optimism is health if we
benefit of optimism is health if we
expect<00:08:51.330> the<00:08:51.840> future<00:08:52.170> to<00:08:52.320> be<00:08:52.350> bright<00:08:52.680> stress
expect the future to be bright stress
expect the future to be bright stress
and<00:08:53.520> anxiety<00:08:53.640> are<00:08:54.150> reduced<00:08:54.540> so<00:08:55.460> oh<00:08:56.460> no
and anxiety are reduced so oh no
and anxiety are reduced so oh no
optimism<00:08:58.560> has<00:08:58.740> lots<00:08:59.040> of<00:08:59.190> benefits<00:08:59.360> but<00:09:00.360> the
optimism has lots of benefits but the
optimism has lots of benefits but the
question<00:09:00.930> that<00:09:00.960> was<00:09:01.290> really<00:09:01.920> confusing<00:09:02.340> to<00:09:02.610> me
question that was really confusing to me
question that was really confusing to me
was<00:09:03.030> how<00:09:03.660> do<00:09:03.720> we<00:09:03.960> maintain<00:09:04.760> optimism<00:09:05.760> in<00:09:05.970> the
was how do we maintain optimism in the
was how do we maintain optimism in the
face<00:09:06.540> of<00:09:06.570> reality<00:09:07.260> as<00:09:07.440> a<00:09:08.280> neuroscientist<00:09:09.120> this
face of reality as a neuroscientist this
face of reality as a neuroscientist this
was<00:09:09.480> especially<00:09:09.690> confusing<00:09:10.230> because
was especially confusing because
was especially confusing because
according<00:09:11.670> to<00:09:11.970> all<00:09:12.150> the<00:09:12.390> theories<00:09:12.780> out<00:09:13.020> there
according to all the theories out there
according to all the theories out there
when<00:09:14.160> your<00:09:14.310> expectations<00:09:14.580> are<00:09:15.180> not<00:09:15.210> met<00:09:15.690> you
when your expectations are not met you
when your expectations are not met you
should<00:09:16.380> lter<00:09:16.770> them<00:09:16.950> but<00:09:17.880> this<00:09:17.970> is<00:09:18.150> not<00:09:18.300> what<00:09:18.450> we
should lter them but this is not what we
should lter them but this is not what we
find<00:09:18.780> we<00:09:19.710> asked<00:09:20.250> people<00:09:20.580> to<00:09:21.000> come<00:09:21.660> into<00:09:21.840> our
find we asked people to come into our
find we asked people to come into our
lab<00:09:22.320> in<00:09:23.310> order<00:09:23.550> to<00:09:23.790> try<00:09:24.030> and<00:09:24.060> figure<00:09:24.330> out<00:09:24.450> what
lab in order to try and figure out what
lab in order to try and figure out what
was<00:09:24.840> going<00:09:25.020> on<00:09:25.290> we<00:09:26.040> asked<00:09:26.430> them<00:09:26.550> to<00:09:26.700> estimate
was going on we asked them to estimate
was going on we asked them to estimate
their<00:09:27.690> likelihood<00:09:28.110> of<00:09:28.260> experiencing
their likelihood of experiencing
their likelihood of experiencing
different<00:09:29.280> terrible<00:09:29.850> events<00:09:30.180> in<00:09:30.270> their<00:09:30.390> lives
different terrible events in their lives
different terrible events in their lives
so<00:09:31.050> for<00:09:31.230> example<00:09:31.710> what<00:09:32.310> is<00:09:32.430> your<00:09:32.580> likelihood
so for example what is your likelihood
so for example what is your likelihood
of<00:09:33.060> suffering<00:09:33.300> from<00:09:33.570> cancer<00:09:33.840> and<00:09:34.290> then<00:09:35.130> we
of suffering from cancer and then we
of suffering from cancer and then we
told<00:09:35.550> them<00:09:35.760> the<00:09:35.940> average<00:09:36.390> likelihood<00:09:36.660> of
told them the average likelihood of
told them the average likelihood of
someone<00:09:37.740> like<00:09:37.950> them<00:09:38.160> to<00:09:38.640> suffer<00:09:39.090> these
someone like them to suffer these
someone like them to suffer these
misfortunes<00:09:40.200> so<00:09:40.650> cancer<00:09:41.100> for<00:09:41.280> example<00:09:41.760> is
misfortunes so cancer for example is
misfortunes so cancer for example is
about<00:09:42.240> 30%<00:09:42.860> and<00:09:44.480> then<00:09:45.480> we<00:09:45.630> ask<00:09:45.810> them<00:09:46.050> again<00:09:46.290> how
about 30% and then we ask them again how
about 30% and then we ask them again how
likely<00:09:47.250> are<00:09:47.460> you<00:09:47.640> to<00:09:47.790> suffer<00:09:48.240> from<00:09:48.330> cancer
likely are you to suffer from cancer
likely are you to suffer from cancer
what<00:09:50.310> we<00:09:50.460> wanted<00:09:50.820> to<00:09:51.000> know<00:09:51.180> was<00:09:51.450> whether
what we wanted to know was whether
what we wanted to know was whether
people<00:09:52.350> will<00:09:52.500> take<00:09:52.830> the<00:09:53.160> information<00:09:53.700> that<00:09:53.910> we
people will take the information that we
people will take the information that we
gave<00:09:54.270> them<00:09:54.450> to<00:09:55.110> change<00:09:55.470> their<00:09:55.770> beliefs<00:09:56.040> and
gave them to change their beliefs and
gave them to change their beliefs and
indeed<00:09:57.600> they<00:09:58.170> did<00:09:58.410> but<00:09:59.280> mostly<00:09:59.730> when<00:10:00.330> the
indeed they did but mostly when the
indeed they did but mostly when the
information<00:10:00.990> we<00:10:01.110> gave<00:10:01.350> them<00:10:01.530> was<00:10:02.100> better<00:10:02.430> than
information we gave them was better than
information we gave them was better than
what<00:10:03.120> they<00:10:03.240> expected<00:10:03.890> so<00:10:04.890> for<00:10:05.070> example<00:10:05.520> if
what they expected so for example if
what they expected so for example if
someone<00:10:05.940> said<00:10:06.300> my<00:10:06.570> likelihood<00:10:07.350> of<00:10:07.410> suffering
someone said my likelihood of suffering
someone said my likelihood of suffering
from<00:10:07.860> cancer<00:10:08.160> is<00:10:08.610> about<00:10:09.540> 50%<00:10:10.410> and<00:10:11.040> we<00:10:11.580> said
from cancer is about 50% and we said
from cancer is about 50% and we said
hey<00:10:12.840> good<00:10:13.410> news<00:10:13.980> the<00:10:14.070> average<00:10:14.400> likelihood<00:10:14.670> is
hey good news the average likelihood is
hey good news the average likelihood is
only<00:10:15.180> 30%<00:10:15.890> the<00:10:16.890> next<00:10:17.190> time<00:10:17.340> around<00:10:17.580> they<00:10:17.850> would
only 30% the next time around they would
only 30% the next time around they would
say<00:10:18.150> well<00:10:18.360> maybe<00:10:18.390> my<00:10:18.930> likelihood<00:10:19.410> is<00:10:19.530> about
say well maybe my likelihood is about
say well maybe my likelihood is about
35%<00:10:20.420> so<00:10:21.420> they<00:10:21.690> learned<00:10:21.900> quickly<00:10:22.470> and
35% so they learned quickly and
35% so they learned quickly and
efficiently<00:10:23.040> but<00:10:23.660> if<00:10:24.660> someone<00:10:25.050> started<00:10:25.380> off
efficiently but if someone started off
efficiently but if someone started off
saying<00:10:25.860> my<00:10:26.220> average<00:10:26.550> likelihood<00:10:26.970> of
saying my average likelihood of
saying my average likelihood of
suffering<00:10:27.360> from<00:10:27.630> cancer<00:10:27.900> is<00:10:28.290> about<00:10:28.470> 10%<00:10:29.460> and
suffering from cancer is about 10% and
suffering from cancer is about 10% and
we<00:10:29.760> said<00:10:30.720> hey<00:10:31.560> bad<00:10:32.100> news
we said hey bad news
we said hey bad news
the<00:10:32.880> average<00:10:33.240> likelihood<00:10:33.480> is<00:10:33.870> about<00:10:34.140> 30%<00:10:34.730> the
the average likelihood is about 30% the
the average likelihood is about 30% the
next<00:10:36.060> time<00:10:36.210> around<00:10:36.450> they<00:10:36.750> would<00:10:36.900> say<00:10:37.140> yep
next time around they would say yep
next time around they would say yep
still<00:10:38.430> think<00:10:38.730> it's<00:10:38.880> about<00:10:39.090> 11%
so<00:10:43.180> it's<00:10:43.660> not<00:10:43.960> that<00:10:44.140> they<00:10:44.230> didn't<00:10:44.440> learn<00:10:44.560> at
so it's not that they didn't learn at
so it's not that they didn't learn at
all<00:10:44.890> they<00:10:45.160> did<00:10:45.400> but<00:10:46.030> much<00:10:46.270> much<00:10:46.570> less<00:10:46.870> than
all they did but much much less than
all they did but much much less than
when<00:10:47.230> we<00:10:47.320> gave<00:10:47.530> them<00:10:47.710> positive<00:10:48.490> information
when we gave them positive information
when we gave them positive information
about<00:10:49.270> the<00:10:49.420> future<00:10:49.810> and<00:10:50.110> it's<00:10:50.860> not<00:10:51.100> that<00:10:51.220> they
about the future and it's not that they
about the future and it's not that they
didn't<00:10:51.610> remember<00:10:51.970> the<00:10:52.300> numbers<00:10:52.600> that<00:10:52.720> we<00:10:52.870> gave
didn't remember the numbers that we gave
didn't remember the numbers that we gave
them<00:10:53.230> everyone<00:10:54.190> remembers<00:10:54.730> that<00:10:54.760> the<00:10:55.120> average
them everyone remembers that the average
them everyone remembers that the average
likelihood<00:10:55.690> of<00:10:55.990> cancer<00:10:56.230> is<00:10:56.560> about<00:10:56.800> Freddy
likelihood of cancer is about Freddy
likelihood of cancer is about Freddy
percent<00:10:57.550> and<00:10:57.850> the<00:10:58.120> average<00:10:58.150> likelihood<00:10:58.720> of
percent and the average likelihood of
percent and the average likelihood of
divorce<00:10:59.260> is<00:10:59.530> about<00:10:59.770> 40<00:11:00.190> percent<00:11:00.310> but<00:11:01.240> they
divorce is about 40 percent but they
divorce is about 40 percent but they
didn't<00:11:01.720> think<00:11:01.900> that<00:11:02.020> those<00:11:02.350> numbers<00:11:02.710> were
didn't think that those numbers were
didn't think that those numbers were
related<00:11:03.460> to<00:11:03.610> them<00:11:04.650> what<00:11:05.650> this<00:11:05.920> means<00:11:06.280> is
related to them what this means is
related to them what this means is
that's<00:11:06.940> warning<00:11:07.630> science<00:11:08.080> such<00:11:08.710> as<00:11:08.950> these<00:11:09.160> may
that's warning science such as these may
that's warning science such as these may
only<00:11:10.180> have<00:11:10.540> limited<00:11:10.810> impact
only have limited impact
only have limited impact
yes<00:11:12.670> smoking<00:11:13.150> kills<00:11:13.360> but<00:11:13.780> mostly<00:11:14.080> kills<00:11:14.410> the
yes smoking kills but mostly kills the
yes smoking kills but mostly kills the
other<00:11:14.650> guy<00:11:16.440> what<00:11:17.440> I<00:11:17.470> wanted<00:11:17.890> to<00:11:18.010> know<00:11:18.220> was<00:11:18.460> what
other guy what I wanted to know was what
other guy what I wanted to know was what
was<00:11:19.510> going<00:11:19.690> on<00:11:19.990> inside<00:11:20.380> the<00:11:20.680> human<00:11:21.130> brain<00:11:21.250> that
was going on inside the human brain that
was going on inside the human brain that
prevented<00:11:22.330> us<00:11:22.480> from<00:11:22.710> taking<00:11:23.710> these<00:11:23.860> warning
prevented us from taking these warning
prevented us from taking these warning
signs<00:11:24.520> personally<00:11:25.210> but<00:11:25.720> at<00:11:25.810> the<00:11:25.900> same<00:11:26.140> time
signs personally but at the same time
signs personally but at the same time
when<00:11:26.830> we<00:11:26.860> hear<00:11:27.280> that<00:11:27.490> the<00:11:27.550> housing<00:11:28.090> market<00:11:28.390> is
when we hear that the housing market is
when we hear that the housing market is
hopeful<00:11:28.870> and<00:11:29.020> we<00:11:29.170> think<00:11:29.440> oh<00:11:29.620> my<00:11:30.250> house<00:11:30.490> is
hopeful and we think oh my house is
hopeful and we think oh my house is
definitely<00:11:31.060> gonna<00:11:31.480> double<00:11:31.870> in<00:11:31.960> price<00:11:32.580> to<00:11:33.580> try
definitely gonna double in price to try
definitely gonna double in price to try
and<00:11:33.940> figure<00:11:34.090> that<00:11:34.330> out<00:11:34.540> I<00:11:34.990> ask<00:11:35.320> the
and figure that out I ask the
and figure that out I ask the
participants<00:11:36.640> in<00:11:36.760> the<00:11:36.880> experiment<00:11:37.240> to<00:11:37.840> lie<00:11:38.170> in
participants in the experiment to lie in
participants in the experiment to lie in
a<00:11:38.440> brain<00:11:38.650> imaging<00:11:39.070> scanner<00:11:39.400> it<00:11:39.940> looks<00:11:40.180> like
a brain imaging scanner it looks like
a brain imaging scanner it looks like
this<00:11:40.540> and<00:11:40.980> using<00:11:41.980> a<00:11:42.070> method<00:11:42.490> called
this and using a method called
this and using a method called
functional<00:11:43.570> MRI<00:11:43.960> we<00:11:44.920> were<00:11:45.070> able<00:11:45.310> to<00:11:45.490> identify
functional MRI we were able to identify
functional MRI we were able to identify
regions<00:11:47.230> in<00:11:47.380> the<00:11:47.470> brain<00:11:47.500> that<00:11:47.950> were
regions in the brain that were
regions in the brain that were
responding<00:11:48.730> to<00:11:48.760> positive<00:11:49.390> information<00:11:49.950> one
responding to positive information one
responding to positive information one
of<00:11:51.130> these<00:11:51.250> regions<00:11:51.700> is<00:11:51.940> called<00:11:52.480> the<00:11:52.660> left
of these regions is called the left
of these regions is called the left
inferior<00:11:53.050> frontal<00:11:53.410> gyrus<00:11:53.790> so<00:11:54.790> if<00:11:54.850> someone
inferior frontal gyrus so if someone
inferior frontal gyrus so if someone
said<00:11:55.450> my<00:11:55.480> likelihood<00:11:56.200> of<00:11:56.230> suffering<00:11:56.410> from
said my likelihood of suffering from
said my likelihood of suffering from
cancer<00:11:56.890> is<00:11:57.160> 50%<00:11:57.550> and<00:11:58.180> we<00:11:58.630> said<00:11:58.900> hey<00:11:59.290> good<00:11:59.650> news
cancer is 50% and we said hey good news
cancer is 50% and we said hey good news
average<00:12:00.550> likely<00:12:00.880> it<00:12:00.970> is<00:12:01.000> 30%<00:12:01.530> the<00:12:02.530> left
average likely it is 30% the left
average likely it is 30% the left
inferior<00:12:03.010> frontal<00:12:03.400> gyrus<00:12:03.640> would<00:12:04.210> respond
inferior frontal gyrus would respond
inferior frontal gyrus would respond
fiercely<00:12:05.170> and<00:12:05.500> it<00:12:06.340> didn't<00:12:06.700> matter<00:12:06.910> if<00:12:07.060> you<00:12:07.300> are
fiercely and it didn't matter if you are
fiercely and it didn't matter if you are
an<00:12:07.690> extreme<00:12:08.170> optimist<00:12:08.800> and<00:12:09.160> mild<00:12:09.550> optimist<00:12:10.180> or
an extreme optimist and mild optimist or
an extreme optimist and mild optimist or
slightly<00:12:11.050> pessimistic<00:12:12.150> everyone's<00:12:13.150> left
slightly pessimistic everyone's left
slightly pessimistic everyone's left
inferior<00:12:13.840> frontal<00:12:14.290> gyrus<00:12:14.530> was<00:12:15.130> functioning
inferior frontal gyrus was functioning
inferior frontal gyrus was functioning
perfectly<00:12:15.970> well<00:12:16.480> whether<00:12:16.990> you're<00:12:17.170> Barack
perfectly well whether you're Barack
perfectly well whether you're Barack
Obama<00:12:17.920> or<00:12:18.220> Woody<00:12:18.460> Allen<00:12:18.870> on<00:12:19.870> the<00:12:19.930> other<00:12:20.230> side
Obama or Woody Allen on the other side
Obama or Woody Allen on the other side
of<00:12:20.710> the<00:12:20.800> brain<00:12:21.010> the<00:12:21.850> right<00:12:21.880> inferior<00:12:22.570> frontal
of the brain the right inferior frontal
of the brain the right inferior frontal
gyrus<00:12:22.900> was<00:12:23.770> responding<00:12:24.400> to<00:12:24.430> bad<00:12:25.210> news<00:12:25.540> and
gyrus was responding to bad news and
gyrus was responding to bad news and
here's<00:12:26.650> the<00:12:26.770> thing<00:12:26.950> it<00:12:27.700> wasn't<00:12:28.060> doing<00:12:28.510> a<00:12:28.600> very
here's the thing it wasn't doing a very
here's the thing it wasn't doing a very
good<00:12:28.900> job<00:12:29.160> the<00:12:30.160> more<00:12:30.340> optimistic<00:12:31.000> he<00:12:31.180> were<00:12:31.390> the
good job the more optimistic he were the
good job the more optimistic he were the
less<00:12:32.440> likely<00:12:33.070> this<00:12:33.250> region<00:12:33.670> was<00:12:33.880> to<00:12:34.270> respond
less likely this region was to respond
less likely this region was to respond
to<00:12:34.900> unexpected<00:12:35.100> negative<00:12:36.100> information<00:12:36.430> and
to unexpected negative information and
to unexpected negative information and
if<00:12:38.620> your<00:12:38.830> brain<00:12:39.130> is<00:12:39.160> failing<00:12:39.970> at<00:12:40.210> integrating
if your brain is failing at integrating
if your brain is failing at integrating
bad<00:12:41.590> news<00:12:42.040> about<00:12:42.520> the<00:12:42.730> future<00:12:42.910> you<00:12:43.660> will
bad news about the future you will
bad news about the future you will
constantly<00:12:44.170> leave<00:12:44.920> your<00:12:45.430> rose<00:12:45.730> tinted
constantly leave your rose tinted
constantly leave your rose tinted
spectacles<00:12:46.480> on<00:12:48.150> so<00:12:49.150> we<00:12:49.270> wanted<00:12:49.600> to<00:12:49.720> know<00:12:49.930> could
spectacles on so we wanted to know could
spectacles on so we wanted to know could
we<00:12:50.950> change<00:12:51.190> this
we change this
we change this
could<00:12:53.620> we<00:12:53.860> alter<00:12:54.670> people's<00:12:54.930> optimism<00:12:55.930> bias<00:12:56.220> by
could we alter people's optimism bias by
could we alter people's optimism bias by
interfering<00:12:58.180> with<00:12:58.420> the<00:12:58.510> brain<00:12:58.720> activity<00:12:59.170> in
interfering with the brain activity in
interfering with the brain activity in
these<00:12:59.350> regions<00:12:59.800> and<00:13:00.130> there's<00:13:01.120> a<00:13:01.180> way<00:13:01.360> for<00:13:01.630> us
these regions and there's a way for us
these regions and there's a way for us
to<00:13:01.870> do<00:13:02.020> that<00:13:02.430> this<00:13:03.430> is<00:13:03.610> my<00:13:03.760> collaborator<00:13:04.089> Rio
to do that this is my collaborator Rio
to do that this is my collaborator Rio
de<00:13:04.779> Cali<00:13:05.230> and<00:13:05.589> what<00:13:06.279> he's<00:13:06.490> doing<00:13:06.880> is<00:13:07.089> he's
de Cali and what he's doing is he's
de Cali and what he's doing is he's
passing<00:13:08.290> a<00:13:08.380> small<00:13:08.560> magnetic<00:13:08.950> poles<00:13:09.339> for<00:13:09.670> the
passing a small magnetic poles for the
passing a small magnetic poles for the
skull<00:13:10.000> of<00:13:10.029> the<00:13:10.240> participant<00:13:10.779> in<00:13:10.899> our<00:13:10.990> study
skull of the participant in our study
skull of the participant in our study
into<00:13:12.190> their<00:13:12.459> inferior<00:13:13.000> frontal<00:13:13.149> gyrus<00:13:13.390> and<00:13:13.980> by
into their inferior frontal gyrus and by
into their inferior frontal gyrus and by
doing<00:13:15.220> that<00:13:15.490> he's<00:13:16.149> interfering<00:13:16.810> with<00:13:17.350> the
doing that he's interfering with the
doing that he's interfering with the
activity<00:13:17.920> of<00:13:18.010> this<00:13:18.100> brain<00:13:18.399> region<00:13:18.430> for<00:13:19.000> about
activity of this brain region for about
activity of this brain region for about
half<00:13:19.450> an<00:13:19.570> hour<00:13:19.690> after<00:13:20.170> that<00:13:20.500> everything<00:13:21.040> goes
half an hour after that everything goes
half an hour after that everything goes
back<00:13:21.399> to<00:13:21.580> normal<00:13:21.700> I<00:13:22.000> assure<00:13:22.240> you
so<00:13:25.680> let's<00:13:25.890> see<00:13:26.070> what<00:13:26.190> happens<00:13:27.950> first<00:13:28.950> of<00:13:29.160> all
so let's see what happens first of all
so let's see what happens first of all
I'm<00:13:29.580> gonna<00:13:29.790> show<00:13:30.000> you<00:13:30.060> the<00:13:30.330> average<00:13:30.500> amount<00:13:31.500> of
I'm gonna show you the average amount of
I'm gonna show you the average amount of
bias<00:13:31.980> that<00:13:32.220> we<00:13:32.370> see<00:13:32.580> so<00:13:32.850> if<00:13:33.030> I<00:13:33.180> was<00:13:33.360> to<00:13:33.410> test<00:13:34.410> all
bias that we see so if I was to test all
bias that we see so if I was to test all
of<00:13:34.650> you<00:13:34.950> now<00:13:35.190> this<00:13:35.970> is<00:13:36.030> the<00:13:36.360> amount<00:13:36.660> that<00:13:37.200> you
of you now this is the amount that you
of you now this is the amount that you
would<00:13:37.440> learn<00:13:37.650> more<00:13:37.920> from<00:13:38.100> good<00:13:38.370> news<00:13:38.640> relative
would learn more from good news relative
would learn more from good news relative
to<00:13:39.390> bad<00:13:39.510> news
to bad news
to bad news
now<00:13:40.920> we<00:13:41.430> interfere<00:13:42.030> with<00:13:42.420> the<00:13:42.930> region<00:13:43.350> that<00:13:43.530> we
now we interfere with the region that we
now we interfere with the region that we
found<00:13:43.890> to<00:13:44.130> integrate<00:13:44.820> negative<00:13:45.500> information
found to integrate negative information
found to integrate negative information
in<00:13:46.740> this<00:13:46.950> task<00:13:47.220> and<00:13:47.580> the<00:13:48.360> optimism<00:13:48.840> bias<00:13:48.990> grew
in this task and the optimism bias grew
in this task and the optimism bias grew
even<00:13:49.830> larger<00:13:50.600> we<00:13:51.600> made<00:13:51.840> people<00:13:52.080> more<00:13:52.620> biased
even larger we made people more biased
even larger we made people more biased
in<00:13:53.520> the<00:13:54.000> way<00:13:54.180> that<00:13:54.450> they<00:13:54.540> process<00:13:54.900> information
in the way that they process information
in the way that they process information
then<00:13:56.850> we<00:13:57.350> interfered<00:13:58.350> with<00:13:58.590> the<00:13:58.710> brain<00:13:58.920> region
then we interfered with the brain region
then we interfered with the brain region
that<00:13:59.790> we<00:14:00.000> found<00:14:00.240> to<00:14:00.480> integrate<00:14:01.020> good<00:14:01.770> news<00:14:01.980> in
that we found to integrate good news in
that we found to integrate good news in
this<00:14:02.400> task<00:14:02.700> and<00:14:03.150> the<00:14:04.110> optimism<00:14:04.800> bias
this task and the optimism bias
this task and the optimism bias
disappeared<00:14:06.800> we<00:14:07.800> were<00:14:07.920> quite<00:14:08.190> amazed<00:14:08.550> by
disappeared we were quite amazed by
disappeared we were quite amazed by
these<00:14:08.940> results<00:14:09.180> because<00:14:09.660> we<00:14:10.020> were<00:14:10.170> able<00:14:10.350> to
these results because we were able to
these results because we were able to
eliminate<00:14:10.800> a<00:14:11.550> deep-rooted<00:14:12.330> bias<00:14:12.750> in<00:14:13.140> humans
eliminate a deep-rooted bias in humans
eliminate a deep-rooted bias in humans
and<00:14:15.020> at<00:14:16.020> this<00:14:16.200> point<00:14:16.470> we<00:14:16.620> because<00:14:17.070> we<00:14:17.190> stopped
and at this point we because we stopped
and at this point we because we stopped
and<00:14:17.970> we<00:14:18.240> asked<00:14:18.600> ourselves<00:14:19.100> would<00:14:20.100> we<00:14:20.340> want<00:14:20.790> to
and we asked ourselves would we want to
and we asked ourselves would we want to
shatter<00:14:21.840> the<00:14:22.110> optimism<00:14:22.590> illusion<00:14:23.160> into<00:14:23.460> tiny
shatter the optimism illusion into tiny
shatter the optimism illusion into tiny
little<00:14:23.910> bits<00:14:24.150> if<00:14:24.540> if<00:14:25.170> we<00:14:25.380> could<00:14:25.650> do<00:14:25.770> that<00:14:25.920> would
little bits if if we could do that would
little bits if if we could do that would
we<00:14:26.610> want<00:14:26.880> to<00:14:27.120> take<00:14:27.360> people's<00:14:27.780> optimism<00:14:28.470> bias
we want to take people's optimism bias
we want to take people's optimism bias
away<00:14:29.780> well<00:14:30.780> I've<00:14:30.990> already<00:14:31.200> told<00:14:31.560> you<00:14:31.830> about
away well I've already told you about
away well I've already told you about
all<00:14:32.190> of<00:14:32.370> the<00:14:32.580> benefits<00:14:32.730> of<00:14:33.330> the<00:14:33.720> optimism<00:14:34.140> bias
all of the benefits of the optimism bias
all of the benefits of the optimism bias
which<00:14:34.800> probably<00:14:35.370> makes<00:14:35.610> you<00:14:35.700> want<00:14:36.090> to<00:14:36.210> hold<00:14:36.930> on
which probably makes you want to hold on
which probably makes you want to hold on
to<00:14:37.380> it<00:14:37.500> for<00:14:37.710> dear<00:14:37.740> life<00:14:38.040> but<00:14:38.970> there<00:14:39.600> are<00:14:39.630> of
to it for dear life but there are of
to it for dear life but there are of
course<00:14:40.050> pitfalls<00:14:40.950> and<00:14:41.220> it<00:14:41.340> will<00:14:41.430> be<00:14:41.520> really
course pitfalls and it will be really
course pitfalls and it will be really
foolish<00:14:42.060> of<00:14:42.240> us<00:14:42.390> to<00:14:42.570> ignore<00:14:42.930> them<00:14:43.220> take<00:14:44.220> for
foolish of us to ignore them take for
foolish of us to ignore them take for
example<00:14:44.460> this<00:14:45.530> email<00:14:46.530> I<00:14:46.770> received<00:14:46.800> from<00:14:47.550> a
example this email I received from a
example this email I received from a
firefighter<00:14:48.660> here<00:14:49.020> in<00:14:49.110> California
firefighter here in California
firefighter here in California
he<00:14:50.220> says<00:14:50.630> fatality<00:14:51.630> investigations<00:14:52.440> for
he says fatality investigations for
he says fatality investigations for
firefighters<00:14:53.430> often<00:14:53.910> include<00:14:54.300> we<00:14:54.750> didn't
firefighters often include we didn't
firefighters often include we didn't
think<00:14:55.320> the<00:14:55.590> fire<00:14:55.620> was<00:14:56.040> going<00:14:56.280> to<00:14:56.430> do<00:14:56.580> that<00:14:56.930> even
think the fire was going to do that even
think the fire was going to do that even
when<00:14:58.080> all<00:14:58.380> the<00:14:58.410> available<00:14:59.100> information<00:14:59.460> was
when all the available information was
when all the available information was
there<00:15:00.390> to<00:15:00.660> make<00:15:00.810> safe<00:15:01.110> decisions<00:15:01.730> this
there to make safe decisions this
there to make safe decisions this
captain<00:15:03.300> is<00:15:03.420> going<00:15:03.600> to<00:15:03.660> use<00:15:03.960> our<00:15:04.230> findings<00:15:04.710> on
captain is going to use our findings on
captain is going to use our findings on
the<00:15:05.040> optimism<00:15:05.580> bias<00:15:05.700> to<00:15:05.970> try<00:15:06.180> to<00:15:06.240> explain<00:15:06.780> to
the optimism bias to try to explain to
the optimism bias to try to explain to
the<00:15:07.230> firefighters<00:15:07.710> why<00:15:08.670> they<00:15:08.970> think<00:15:09.030> the<00:15:09.360> way
the firefighters why they think the way
the firefighters why they think the way
they<00:15:09.540> do<00:15:09.720> to<00:15:10.500> make<00:15:10.800> them<00:15:11.040> acutely<00:15:11.610> aware<00:15:11.910> of
they do to make them acutely aware of
they do to make them acutely aware of
this<00:15:12.540> very<00:15:13.070> optimistic<00:15:14.070> bias<00:15:15.000> in<00:15:15.330> humans<00:15:15.720> so
this very optimistic bias in humans so
this very optimistic bias in humans so
unrealistic<00:15:18.570> optimism<00:15:19.320> can<00:15:20.310> lead<00:15:20.670> to<00:15:21.090> risky
unrealistic optimism can lead to risky
unrealistic optimism can lead to risky
behavior<00:15:22.560> to<00:15:23.010> financial<00:15:23.910> collapse<00:15:24.270> to<00:15:25.050> faulty
behavior to financial collapse to faulty
behavior to financial collapse to faulty
planning<00:15:25.890> the<00:15:26.670> British<00:15:27.060> government<00:15:27.540> for
planning the British government for
planning the British government for
example<00:15:28.040> has<00:15:29.040> acknowledged<00:15:29.790> that<00:15:29.970> the
example has acknowledged that the
example has acknowledged that the
optimism<00:15:30.810> bias<00:15:30.990> can<00:15:31.860> make<00:15:32.190> individuals<00:15:32.940> more
optimism bias can make individuals more
optimism bias can make individuals more
likely<00:15:34.080> to<00:15:34.410> underestimate<00:15:35.130> the<00:15:35.910> cost<00:15:36.210> and
likely to underestimate the cost and
likely to underestimate the cost and
during
during
during
of<00:15:37.440> projects<00:15:38.060> so<00:15:39.060> they<00:15:39.240> have<00:15:39.390> adjusted<00:15:39.959> the
of projects so they have adjusted the
of projects so they have adjusted the
2012<00:15:41.220> Olympic<00:15:41.850> budget<00:15:42.209> for<00:15:42.810> the<00:15:42.899> optimism
2012 Olympic budget for the optimism
2012 Olympic budget for the optimism
bias<00:15:44.149> my<00:15:45.149> friend<00:15:45.480> who's<00:15:45.660> getting<00:15:45.930> married<00:15:46.200> in
bias my friend who's getting married in
bias my friend who's getting married in
a<00:15:46.380> few<00:15:46.589> weeks<00:15:46.709> has<00:15:47.010> done<00:15:47.160> the<00:15:47.279> same<00:15:47.310> for<00:15:47.550> his
a few weeks has done the same for his
a few weeks has done the same for his
wedding<00:15:48.180> budget<00:15:48.330> and<00:15:48.810> by<00:15:49.470> the<00:15:49.529> way<00:15:49.680> when<00:15:49.830> I
wedding budget and by the way when I
wedding budget and by the way when I
asked<00:15:50.339> him<00:15:50.430> about<00:15:50.640> his<00:15:51.330> own<00:15:51.540> likelihood<00:15:51.990> of
asked him about his own likelihood of
asked him about his own likelihood of
divorce<00:15:52.350> he<00:15:52.620> said<00:15:52.830> he<00:15:53.010> was<00:15:53.130> quite<00:15:53.490> sure<00:15:53.790> it<00:15:53.940> was
divorce he said he was quite sure it was
divorce he said he was quite sure it was
zero<00:15:54.360> percent<00:15:55.760> so<00:15:56.760> what<00:15:56.940> we<00:15:57.029> would<00:15:57.149> really
zero percent so what we would really
zero percent so what we would really
like<00:15:57.660> to<00:15:57.690> do<00:15:58.019> is<00:15:58.350> we<00:15:59.040> would<00:15:59.190> like<00:15:59.250> to<00:15:59.430> protect
like to do is we would like to protect
like to do is we would like to protect
ourselves<00:16:00.089> from<00:16:00.480> the<00:16:00.990> dangers<00:16:01.560> of<00:16:01.589> optimism
ourselves from the dangers of optimism
ourselves from the dangers of optimism
but<00:16:03.329> at<00:16:03.510> the<00:16:03.630> same<00:16:03.899> time<00:16:04.430> remain<00:16:05.430> hopeful
but at the same time remain hopeful
but at the same time remain hopeful
benefiting<00:16:06.630> from<00:16:06.779> the<00:16:06.959> many<00:16:07.140> fruits<00:16:07.440> of
benefiting from the many fruits of
benefiting from the many fruits of
optimism<00:16:08.040> and<00:16:08.550> I<00:16:09.480> believe<00:16:09.899> there's<00:16:10.170> a<00:16:10.230> way<00:16:10.440> for
optimism and I believe there's a way for
optimism and I believe there's a way for
us<00:16:10.680> to<00:16:10.920> do<00:16:11.070> that<00:16:11.220> the<00:16:12.060> key<00:16:12.420> here<00:16:12.660> really<00:16:12.870> is
us to do that the key here really is
us to do that the key here really is
knowledge<00:16:13.380> we're<00:16:13.740> not<00:16:13.890> born<00:16:14.250> with<00:16:14.670> an<00:16:14.820> innate
knowledge we're not born with an innate
knowledge we're not born with an innate
understanding<00:16:15.149> of<00:16:15.990> our<00:16:16.140> biases<00:16:16.680> these<00:16:17.310> have
understanding of our biases these have
understanding of our biases these have
to<00:16:17.820> be<00:16:17.970> identified<00:16:18.570> by<00:16:18.959> scientific
to be identified by scientific
to be identified by scientific
investigation<00:16:20.329> but<00:16:21.329> the<00:16:21.480> good<00:16:21.690> news<00:16:21.930> is<00:16:22.230> that
investigation but the good news is that
investigation but the good news is that
becoming<00:16:23.070> aware<00:16:23.550> of<00:16:23.610> the<00:16:23.850> optimism<00:16:24.300> bias<00:16:24.600> does
becoming aware of the optimism bias does
becoming aware of the optimism bias does
not<00:16:25.410> shatter<00:16:25.709> the<00:16:25.920> illusion<00:16:25.950> it's<00:16:26.790> like
not shatter the illusion it's like
not shatter the illusion it's like
visual<00:16:27.300> illusions<00:16:27.930> in<00:16:28.140> which<00:16:28.529> understanding
visual illusions in which understanding
visual illusions in which understanding
them<00:16:29.490> does<00:16:30.089> not<00:16:30.120> make<00:16:30.510> them<00:16:30.720> go<00:16:30.870> away<00:16:30.899> and<00:16:31.470> this
them does not make them go away and this
them does not make them go away and this
is<00:16:32.130> good<00:16:32.370> because<00:16:32.610> it<00:16:33.060> means<00:16:33.480> we<00:16:33.930> should<00:16:33.959> be
is good because it means we should be
is good because it means we should be
able<00:16:34.529> to<00:16:34.769> strike<00:16:35.370> a<00:16:35.399> balance<00:16:35.660> to<00:16:36.660> come<00:16:37.110> up<00:16:37.230> with
able to strike a balance to come up with
able to strike a balance to come up with
plans<00:16:37.740> and<00:16:38.250> rules<00:16:38.579> to<00:16:38.760> protect<00:16:39.149> ourselves
plans and rules to protect ourselves
plans and rules to protect ourselves
from<00:16:39.899> unrealistic<00:16:40.829> optimism<00:16:41.490> but<00:16:41.880> at<00:16:41.970> the
from unrealistic optimism but at the
from unrealistic optimism but at the
same<00:16:42.240> time<00:16:42.540> remain<00:16:42.959> hopeful
same time remain hopeful
same time remain hopeful
I<00:16:44.209> think<00:16:45.209> this<00:16:45.829> cartoon<00:16:46.829> portrays<00:16:47.490> it<00:16:47.670> nicely
I think this cartoon portrays it nicely
I think this cartoon portrays it nicely
because<00:16:48.329> if<00:16:48.720> you're<00:16:49.320> one<00:16:49.500> of<00:16:49.649> these
because if you're one of these
because if you're one of these
pessimistic<00:16:50.579> penguins<00:16:51.029> up<00:16:51.240> there<00:16:51.540> who<00:16:52.110> just
pessimistic penguins up there who just
pessimistic penguins up there who just
does<00:16:52.800> not<00:16:52.950> believe<00:16:53.310> they<00:16:53.459> can<00:16:53.640> fly<00:16:53.880> you<00:16:54.480> will
does not believe they can fly you will
does not believe they can fly you will
certainly<00:16:54.870> never<00:16:55.200> will<00:16:55.440> because<00:16:56.399> to<00:16:56.700> make<00:16:56.880> any
certainly never will because to make any
certainly never will because to make any
kind<00:16:57.390> of<00:16:57.450> progress<00:16:57.750> we<00:16:57.990> need<00:16:58.200> to<00:16:58.440> be<00:16:58.649> able<00:16:58.800> to
kind of progress we need to be able to
kind of progress we need to be able to
imagine<00:16:59.370> a<00:16:59.700> different<00:16:59.730> reality<00:17:00.209> and<00:17:00.690> then<00:17:01.020> we
imagine a different reality and then we
imagine a different reality and then we
need<00:17:01.320> to<00:17:01.350> believe<00:17:02.100> that<00:17:02.339> that<00:17:02.490> reality<00:17:02.730> is
need to believe that that reality is
need to believe that that reality is
possible<00:17:03.540> but<00:17:04.530> if<00:17:04.770> you<00:17:05.130> are<00:17:05.370> an<00:17:05.640> extreme
possible but if you are an extreme
possible but if you are an extreme
optimistic<00:17:07.140> penguin<00:17:07.500> who<00:17:07.679> just<00:17:07.919> jumps<00:17:08.429> down
optimistic penguin who just jumps down
optimistic penguin who just jumps down
blindly<00:17:09.150> and<00:17:09.360> hoping<00:17:09.780> for<00:17:09.959> the<00:17:10.079> best<00:17:10.260> you
blindly and hoping for the best you
blindly and hoping for the best you
might<00:17:11.280> find<00:17:11.550> yourself<00:17:11.699> in<00:17:12.120> a<00:17:12.240> bit<00:17:12.449> of<00:17:12.569> a<00:17:12.660> mess
might find yourself in a bit of a mess
might find yourself in a bit of a mess
when<00:17:13.140> you<00:17:13.230> hit<00:17:13.380> the<00:17:13.500> ground<00:17:14.329> but<00:17:15.329> if<00:17:15.510> you're<00:17:15.720> an
when you hit the ground but if you're an
when you hit the ground but if you're an
optimistic<00:17:16.290> penguin<00:17:16.890> who<00:17:17.579> believes<00:17:18.059> it<00:17:18.209> can
optimistic penguin who believes it can
optimistic penguin who believes it can
fly<00:17:18.600> but<00:17:18.929> then<00:17:19.079> adjust<00:17:19.470> a<00:17:19.589> parachute<00:17:20.040> to<00:17:20.069> your
fly but then adjust a parachute to your
fly but then adjust a parachute to your
back<00:17:20.689> just<00:17:21.689> in<00:17:21.839> case<00:17:22.079> things<00:17:22.350> didn't<00:17:22.650> work<00:17:22.740> out
back just in case things didn't work out
back just in case things didn't work out
exactly<00:17:23.189> as<00:17:23.640> you<00:17:23.760> plans
exactly as you plans
exactly as you plans
you<00:17:24.870> will<00:17:25.050> soar<00:17:25.319> like<00:17:25.350> an<00:17:25.740> eagle<00:17:25.939> even<00:17:26.939> if
you will soar like an eagle even if
you will soar like an eagle even if
you're<00:17:27.240> just<00:17:27.270> a<00:17:27.780> penguin<00:17:28.640> thank<00:17:29.640> you
TED, TED, Talk, TED-Ed, Ed, TEDEducation
