The mathematics of history - Jean-Baptiste Michel
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so<00:00:16.440> it<00:00:16.560> turns<00:00:16.760> out<00:00:16.960> that<00:00:17.080> mathematics<00:00:17.760> is<00:00:17.880> a
so it turns out that mathematics is a
so it turns out that mathematics is a
very<00:00:18.199> powerful<00:00:18.600> language<00:00:19.119> it<00:00:19.240> has<00:00:19.400> generated
very powerful language it has generated
very powerful language it has generated
considerable<00:00:20.400> Insight<00:00:20.920> in<00:00:21.160> physics<00:00:21.680> in
considerable Insight in physics in
considerable Insight in physics in
biology<00:00:22.240> and<00:00:22.359> in<00:00:22.760> economics<00:00:23.760> but<00:00:24.000> not<00:00:24.359> that
biology and in economics but not that
biology and in economics but not that
much<00:00:24.880> in<00:00:25.000> the<00:00:25.119> humanities<00:00:25.560> and<00:00:25.720> in<00:00:25.880> history<00:00:26.760> I
much in the humanities and in history I
much in the humanities and in history I
think<00:00:27.000> there's<00:00:27.160> the<00:00:27.320> belief<00:00:27.679> that<00:00:27.800> is<00:00:28.000> just
think there's the belief that is just
think there's the belief that is just
impossible<00:00:29.039> that<00:00:29.199> you<00:00:29.359> cannot<00:00:30.080> if<00:00:30.160> y<00:00:30.320> the
impossible that you cannot if y the
impossible that you cannot if y the
doings<00:00:30.840> of<00:00:31.279> mankind<00:00:31.920> that<00:00:32.040> you<00:00:32.160> cannot
doings of mankind that you cannot
doings of mankind that you cannot
measure<00:00:33.000> history<00:00:34.000> but<00:00:34.120> I<00:00:34.239> don't<00:00:34.399> think<00:00:34.559> that's
measure history but I don't think that's
measure history but I don't think that's
right<00:00:34.920> I<00:00:35.000> want<00:00:35.120> to<00:00:35.239> show<00:00:35.360> you<00:00:35.480> a<00:00:35.559> couple<00:00:35.760> of
right I want to show you a couple of
right I want to show you a couple of
examples<00:00:36.399> why<00:00:37.120> so<00:00:37.320> my<00:00:37.480> collaborator<00:00:38.040> Aras<00:00:38.320> and
examples why so my collaborator Aras and
examples why so my collaborator Aras and
I<00:00:39.079> were<00:00:39.360> considering<00:00:39.719> the<00:00:39.800> following<00:00:40.239> fact
I were considering the following fact
I were considering the following fact
that<00:00:41.000> two<00:00:41.239> kings<00:00:41.879> separated<00:00:42.360> by<00:00:42.520> centuries
that two kings separated by centuries
that two kings separated by centuries
will<00:00:43.320> speak<00:00:43.520> a<00:00:43.640> very<00:00:43.840> different<00:00:44.320> language
will speak a very different language
will speak a very different language
that's<00:00:45.480> a<00:00:45.600> powerful<00:00:45.960> historical<00:00:46.399> Force<00:00:47.160> so
that's a powerful historical Force so
that's a powerful historical Force so
the<00:00:47.440> king<00:00:47.600> of<00:00:47.800> England<00:00:48.199> Alfred<00:00:48.520> the<00:00:48.640> Great
the king of England Alfred the Great
the king of England Alfred the Great
will<00:00:49.160> use<00:00:49.440> a<00:00:49.600> vocabulary<00:00:50.079> and<00:00:50.199> a<00:00:50.280> grammar<00:00:50.680> that
will use a vocabulary and a grammar that
will use a vocabulary and a grammar that
is<00:00:51.199> quite<00:00:51.440> different<00:00:51.960> from<00:00:52.320> the<00:00:52.440> king<00:00:52.600> of<00:00:52.760> Hip
is quite different from the king of Hip
is quite different from the king of Hip
Hop
Hop
Hop
Jay-Z
Jay-Z
Jay-Z
now<00:00:57.199> it's<00:00:57.399> just<00:00:57.520> the<00:00:57.640> way<00:00:57.760> it<00:00:57.840> is<00:00:58.079> language
now it's just the way it is language
now it's just the way it is language
changes<00:00:58.680> over<00:00:58.920> time<00:00:59.079> and<00:00:59.199> it's<00:00:59.280> a<00:00:59.399> powerful
changes over time and it's a powerful
changes over time and it's a powerful
force
force
force
so<00:01:00.719> Aris<00:01:01.039> and<00:01:01.160> I<00:01:01.280> wanted<00:01:01.519> to<00:01:01.640> know<00:01:01.800> more<00:01:02.000> about
so Aris and I wanted to know more about
so Aris and I wanted to know more about
that<00:01:02.480> so<00:01:02.640> we<00:01:02.760> paid<00:01:03.000> attention<00:01:03.359> to<00:01:03.480> a
that so we paid attention to a
that so we paid attention to a
particular<00:01:04.080> grammatical<00:01:04.600> rule<00:01:04.920> past<00:01:05.119> tense
particular grammatical rule past tense
particular grammatical rule past tense
conjugation<00:01:06.400> so<00:01:06.520> you<00:01:06.680> just<00:01:06.880> add<00:01:07.119> Ed<00:01:07.400> to<00:01:07.520> a<00:01:07.640> verb
conjugation so you just add Ed to a verb
conjugation so you just add Ed to a verb
at<00:01:08.000> the<00:01:08.080> end<00:01:08.320> to<00:01:08.439> signify<00:01:08.880> the<00:01:09.040> past<00:01:09.360> today<00:01:09.640> I
at the end to signify the past today I
at the end to signify the past today I
walk<00:01:10.040> yesterday<00:01:10.400> I<00:01:10.560> walked<00:01:11.400> but<00:01:11.560> some<00:01:11.720> verbs
walk yesterday I walked but some verbs
walk yesterday I walked but some verbs
are<00:01:12.080> irregular<00:01:12.720> yesterday<00:01:13.159> I<00:01:13.720> thought<00:01:14.720> now
are irregular yesterday I thought now
are irregular yesterday I thought now
what's<00:01:15.040> interesting<00:01:15.400> about<00:01:15.680> that<00:01:15.880> is
what's interesting about that is
what's interesting about that is
irregular<00:01:16.840> verbs<00:01:17.280> between<00:01:17.560> Alfred<00:01:17.880> and<00:01:18.000> Jay-Z
irregular verbs between Alfred and Jay-Z
irregular verbs between Alfred and Jay-Z
have<00:01:18.880> become<00:01:19.159> more<00:01:19.400> regular<00:01:19.840> like<00:01:20.000> the<00:01:20.079> verb
have become more regular like the verb
have become more regular like the verb
to<00:01:20.479> Wed<00:01:20.759> that<00:01:20.840> you<00:01:20.920> see<00:01:21.200> here<00:01:21.439> has<00:01:21.560> become
to Wed that you see here has become
to Wed that you see here has become
regular<00:01:22.840> so<00:01:23.040> AR<00:01:23.280> and<00:01:23.439> I<00:01:23.640> followed<00:01:24.400> the<00:01:24.560> fate<00:01:24.759> of
regular so AR and I followed the fate of
regular so AR and I followed the fate of
over<00:01:25.240> 100<00:01:25.479> irregular<00:01:25.920> verbs<00:01:26.200> through<00:01:26.400> 12
over 100 irregular verbs through 12
over 100 irregular verbs through 12
centuries<00:01:27.040> of<00:01:27.240> English<00:01:27.640> language<00:01:28.640> and<00:01:28.720> we<00:01:28.840> saw
centuries of English language and we saw
centuries of English language and we saw
that<00:01:29.200> there's<00:01:29.400> actually<00:01:29.560> a<00:01:29.680> very<00:01:30.079> simple
that there's actually a very simple
that there's actually a very simple
mathematical<00:01:31.079> pattern<00:01:31.759> that<00:01:31.920> captures<00:01:32.399> this
mathematical pattern that captures this
mathematical pattern that captures this
complex<00:01:33.040> historical<00:01:33.520> change<00:01:34.439> namely<00:01:35.159> if<00:01:35.280> a
complex historical change namely if a
complex historical change namely if a
verb<00:01:35.640> is<00:01:35.880> 100<00:01:36.119> times<00:01:36.360> more<00:01:36.560> frequent<00:01:36.880> than
verb is 100 times more frequent than
verb is 100 times more frequent than
another<00:01:37.920> it<00:01:38.079> regularizes<00:01:38.920> 10<00:01:39.159> times<00:01:39.880> slower
another it regularizes 10 times slower
another it regularizes 10 times slower
that's<00:01:41.040> a<00:01:41.200> piece<00:01:41.399> of<00:01:41.600> history<00:01:42.399> but<00:01:42.520> it<00:01:42.640> comes
that's a piece of history but it comes
that's a piece of history but it comes
in<00:01:42.960> a<00:01:43.079> mathematical<00:01:44.040> wrapping<00:01:45.040> now<00:01:45.240> in<00:01:45.399> some
in a mathematical wrapping now in some
in a mathematical wrapping now in some
cases<00:01:46.320> math<00:01:46.560> can<00:01:46.759> even<00:01:47.040> help<00:01:47.320> explain<00:01:47.719> or
cases math can even help explain or
cases math can even help explain or
propose<00:01:48.240> explanations<00:01:49.079> for<00:01:49.439> historical
propose explanations for historical
propose explanations for historical
forces<00:01:51.079> so<00:01:51.280> here<00:01:51.479> Steve<00:01:51.719> Pinker<00:01:52.040> and<00:01:52.200> I<00:01:52.680> were
forces so here Steve Pinker and I were
forces so here Steve Pinker and I were
considering<00:01:53.360> the<00:01:53.479> magnitude<00:01:54.079> of<00:01:54.240> wars<00:01:54.719> during
considering the magnitude of wars during
considering the magnitude of wars during
the<00:01:55.119> last<00:01:55.280> two<00:01:55.520> centuries<00:01:56.520> there's<00:01:56.799> actually
the last two centuries there's actually
the last two centuries there's actually
a<00:01:57.159> well-known<00:01:57.600> regularity<00:01:58.159> to<00:01:58.399> them<00:01:59.240> where
a well-known regularity to them where
a well-known regularity to them where
the<00:01:59.960> number<00:02:00.119> of<00:02:00.240> wars<00:02:00.520> that<00:02:00.600> are<00:02:00.880> 100<00:02:01.240> times
the number of wars that are 100 times
the number of wars that are 100 times
deadlier<00:02:02.439> is<00:02:02.640> 10<00:02:02.880> times<00:02:03.320> smaller<00:02:04.320> so<00:02:04.520> there
deadlier is 10 times smaller so there
deadlier is 10 times smaller so there
are<00:02:04.799> 30<00:02:05.119> Wars<00:02:05.439> that<00:02:05.560> are<00:02:05.759> about<00:02:06.000> as<00:02:06.119> deadly<00:02:06.399> as
are 30 Wars that are about as deadly as
are 30 Wars that are about as deadly as
the<00:02:06.680> Six<00:02:06.960> Days<00:02:07.240> War<00:02:08.080> but<00:02:08.200> there's<00:02:08.440> only<00:02:08.640> four
the Six Days War but there's only four
the Six Days War but there's only four
Wars<00:02:09.280> that<00:02:09.360> are<00:02:09.640> 100<00:02:09.879> times<00:02:10.160> deadlier<00:02:10.720> like
Wars that are 100 times deadlier like
Wars that are 100 times deadlier like
World<00:02:11.239> War<00:02:11.480> I<00:02:12.480> so<00:02:12.760> what<00:02:12.920> kind<00:02:13.040> of<00:02:13.239> historical
World War I so what kind of historical
World War I so what kind of historical
mechanism<00:02:14.280> can<00:02:14.519> produce<00:02:14.959> that<00:02:15.440> what's<00:02:15.640> the
mechanism can produce that what's the
mechanism can produce that what's the
origin<00:02:16.080> of<00:02:16.280> this<00:02:17.280> so<00:02:17.680> Steve<00:02:17.959> and<00:02:18.120> I<00:02:18.280> through
origin of this so Steve and I through
origin of this so Steve and I through
mathematical<00:02:19.120> analysis<00:02:20.120> proposed<00:02:20.519> that
mathematical analysis proposed that
mathematical analysis proposed that
there's<00:02:20.840> actually<00:02:21.040> a<00:02:21.160> very<00:02:21.400> simple<00:02:22.280> phenomena
there's actually a very simple phenomena
there's actually a very simple phenomena
at<00:02:22.879> the<00:02:22.959> root<00:02:23.160> of<00:02:23.360> this<00:02:23.800> which<00:02:24.000> is<00:02:24.200> which<00:02:24.319> lies
at the root of this which is which lies
at the root of this which is which lies
in<00:02:24.599> our<00:02:24.800> brains<00:02:25.760> this<00:02:25.879> is<00:02:26.400> a<00:02:26.720> very<00:02:26.879> wellknown
in our brains this is a very wellknown
in our brains this is a very wellknown
feature<00:02:27.680> which<00:02:28.160> we<00:02:28.480> perceive<00:02:28.840> quantities<00:02:29.319> in
feature which we perceive quantities in
feature which we perceive quantities in
relative<00:02:30.080> ways<00:02:30.760> the<00:02:30.920> quantities<00:02:31.400> like<00:02:31.519> the
relative ways the quantities like the
relative ways the quantities like the
intensity<00:02:32.040> of<00:02:32.239> light<00:02:32.519> or<00:02:32.640> the<00:02:32.800> loudness<00:02:33.120> of<00:02:33.200> a
intensity of light or the loudness of a
intensity of light or the loudness of a
sound<00:02:34.640> for<00:02:34.840> instance<00:02:35.519> committing<00:02:35.959> 10,000
sound for instance committing 10,000
sound for instance committing 10,000
soldiers<00:02:37.080> to<00:02:37.239> the<00:02:37.400> next<00:02:37.599> battle<00:02:38.200> sounds<00:02:38.519> like
soldiers to the next battle sounds like
soldiers to the next battle sounds like
a<00:02:38.800> lot<00:02:39.000> it's<00:02:39.200> relatively<00:02:39.640> enormous<00:02:40.159> if<00:02:40.280> you've
a lot it's relatively enormous if you've
a lot it's relatively enormous if you've
already<00:02:40.720> committed<00:02:41.120> 1,000<00:02:41.560> soldiers
already committed 1,000 soldiers
already committed 1,000 soldiers
previously<00:02:43.360> but<00:02:43.480> it<00:02:43.599> doesn't<00:02:43.920> sound<00:02:44.200> so<00:02:44.519> much
previously but it doesn't sound so much
previously but it doesn't sound so much
it's<00:02:45.159> not<00:02:45.360> relatively<00:02:46.200> enough<00:02:46.760> it<00:02:46.879> won't<00:02:47.120> make
it's not relatively enough it won't make
it's not relatively enough it won't make
a<00:02:47.400> difference<00:02:47.720> if<00:02:47.800> you've<00:02:48.000> already<00:02:48.239> committed
a difference if you've already committed
a difference if you've already committed
100,000<00:02:49.239> soldiers<00:02:50.080> previously<00:02:51.080> so<00:02:51.239> you<00:02:51.319> see
100,000 soldiers previously so you see
100,000 soldiers previously so you see
that<00:02:51.840> because<00:02:52.080> of<00:02:52.280> the<00:02:52.440> way<00:02:52.879> we<00:02:53.040> perceive
that because of the way we perceive
that because of the way we perceive
quantities<00:02:54.760> as<00:02:54.920> the<00:02:55.040> war<00:02:55.280> drags<00:02:55.640> on<00:02:56.640> the
quantities as the war drags on the
quantities as the war drags on the
number<00:02:57.159> of<00:02:57.280> soldiers<00:02:57.720> committed<00:02:58.120> to<00:02:58.280> it<00:02:58.560> and
number of soldiers committed to it and
number of soldiers committed to it and
the<00:02:58.800> casualties<00:02:59.480> will<00:02:59.640> in<00:02:59.840> increase<00:03:00.200> not
the casualties will in increase not
the casualties will in increase not
linearly<00:03:00.920> like<00:03:01.080> 10,000<00:03:01.640> 11,000<00:03:02.280> 12,000<00:03:03.280> but
linearly like 10,000 11,000 12,000 but
linearly like 10,000 11,000 12,000 but
exponentially<00:03:04.480> 10,000<00:03:05.120> later<00:03:05.360> 20,000<00:03:06.000> later
exponentially 10,000 later 20,000 later
exponentially 10,000 later 20,000 later
40,000<00:03:07.400> and<00:03:07.480> so<00:03:07.720> that<00:03:08.000> explains<00:03:08.440> this<00:03:08.599> pattern
40,000 and so that explains this pattern
40,000 and so that explains this pattern
that<00:03:09.080> we've<00:03:09.239> seen<00:03:09.560> before<00:03:10.560> so<00:03:10.799> here
that we've seen before so here
that we've seen before so here
mathematics<00:03:11.640> is<00:03:11.760> able<00:03:12.000> to<00:03:12.159> link<00:03:13.000> a<00:03:13.159> well-known
mathematics is able to link a well-known
mathematics is able to link a well-known
feature<00:03:14.000> of<00:03:14.159> the<00:03:14.360> individual<00:03:14.879> mind<00:03:15.879> with<00:03:16.000> a
feature of the individual mind with a
feature of the individual mind with a
long-term<00:03:16.720> pattern<00:03:17.319> a<00:03:17.480> historical<00:03:18.000> pattern
long-term pattern a historical pattern
long-term pattern a historical pattern
that<00:03:18.519> unfolds<00:03:18.920> over<00:03:19.120> centuries<00:03:20.040> and<00:03:20.239> across
that unfolds over centuries and across
that unfolds over centuries and across
continents<00:03:22.200> so<00:03:22.799> these<00:03:23.000> type<00:03:23.159> of<00:03:23.319> examples
continents so these type of examples
continents so these type of examples
today<00:03:24.319> there<00:03:24.560> just<00:03:24.720> few<00:03:24.920> of<00:03:25.040> them<00:03:25.959> but<00:03:26.080> I<00:03:26.159> think
today there just few of them but I think
today there just few of them but I think
that<00:03:26.400> in<00:03:26.519> the<00:03:26.599> next<00:03:26.799> decade<00:03:27.040> they<00:03:27.159> will<00:03:27.280> become
that in the next decade they will become
that in the next decade they will become
common<00:03:27.879> place<00:03:28.439> the<00:03:28.560> reason<00:03:28.840> for<00:03:29.040> that<00:03:29.159> is<00:03:29.280> that
common place the reason for that is that
common place the reason for that is that
the<00:03:29.480> history<00:03:29.760> IAL<00:03:30.080> record<00:03:30.599> is<00:03:30.799> becoming
the history IAL record is becoming
the history IAL record is becoming
digitized<00:03:31.640> at<00:03:31.840> very<00:03:32.040> fast<00:03:32.480> pace<00:03:33.480> so<00:03:33.760> there's
digitized at very fast pace so there's
digitized at very fast pace so there's
about<00:03:34.239> 130<00:03:34.840> million<00:03:35.200> books<00:03:35.720> that<00:03:35.840> have<00:03:35.959> been
about 130 million books that have been
about 130 million books that have been
written<00:03:36.519> since<00:03:36.720> the<00:03:36.840> dawn<00:03:37.040> of<00:03:37.480> time<00:03:38.480> companies
written since the dawn of time companies
written since the dawn of time companies
like<00:03:39.040> Google<00:03:39.360> have<00:03:39.480> dized<00:03:39.959> many<00:03:40.120> of<00:03:40.239> them
like Google have dized many of them
like Google have dized many of them
above<00:03:40.840> 20<00:03:41.120> million<00:03:41.439> actually<00:03:42.400> and<00:03:42.519> when<00:03:42.680> the
above 20 million actually and when the
above 20 million actually and when the
stuff<00:03:43.080> of<00:03:43.280> history<00:03:44.080> is<00:03:44.239> available<00:03:44.599> in<00:03:44.720> digital
stuff of history is available in digital
stuff of history is available in digital
form<00:03:46.000> it<00:03:46.159> makes<00:03:46.360> it<00:03:46.560> possible<00:03:46.840> for
form it makes it possible for
form it makes it possible for
mathematical<00:03:47.720> analysis<00:03:48.640> to<00:03:48.959> very<00:03:49.159> quickly
mathematical analysis to very quickly
mathematical analysis to very quickly
and<00:03:49.680> very<00:03:49.840> conveniently<00:03:50.360> reveal<00:03:50.760> Trends<00:03:51.120> in
and very conveniently reveal Trends in
and very conveniently reveal Trends in
our<00:03:51.439> history<00:03:51.760> in<00:03:51.879> our<00:03:52.400> culture<00:03:53.400> so<00:03:53.519> I<00:03:53.640> think<00:03:54.280> as
our history in our culture so I think as
our history in our culture so I think as
in<00:03:54.840> the<00:03:54.959> next<00:03:55.200> decade<00:03:56.079> the<00:03:56.200> sciences<00:03:56.760> and<00:03:56.879> the
in the next decade the sciences and the
in the next decade the sciences and the
humanities<00:03:57.400> will<00:03:57.560> come<00:03:57.760> closer<00:03:58.239> together<00:03:58.920> to
humanities will come closer together to
humanities will come closer together to
be<00:03:59.159> able<00:03:59.319> to<00:03:59.959> deep<00:04:00.159> questions<00:04:00.720> about<00:04:00.959> Mankind
be able to deep questions about Mankind
be able to deep questions about Mankind
and<00:04:02.079> I<00:04:02.200> think<00:04:02.439> that<00:04:03.120> mathematics<00:04:03.680> will<00:04:03.840> be<00:04:04.159> a
and I think that mathematics will be a
and I think that mathematics will be a
very<00:04:04.760> powerful<00:04:05.120> language<00:04:05.439> to<00:04:05.599> do<00:04:05.799> that<00:04:06.360> it
very powerful language to do that it
very powerful language to do that it
will<00:04:06.640> be<00:04:06.760> able<00:04:07.040> to<00:04:07.400> reveal<00:04:07.799> new<00:04:07.959> trends<00:04:08.280> in<00:04:08.400> our
will be able to reveal new trends in our
will be able to reveal new trends in our
history<00:04:09.760> sometimes<00:04:10.000> to<00:04:10.280> explain<00:04:10.720> them<00:04:11.360> and
history sometimes to explain them and
history sometimes to explain them and
maybe<00:04:11.760> even<00:04:11.920> in<00:04:12.040> the<00:04:12.159> future<00:04:12.480> to<00:04:12.760> predict
maybe even in the future to predict
maybe even in the future to predict
what's<00:04:13.280> going<00:04:13.400> to<00:04:13.519> happen<00:04:14.239> thank<00:04:14.360> you<00:04:14.519> very
what's going to happen thank you very
what's going to happen thank you very
much
[Music]
Jean-Baptiste Michel, TED, TED, Fellow, Ed, TED-Ed, TEDEducation, math, history, math, history
