[Music]
[Music]
so<00:00:16.240> can<00:00:16.359> we<00:00:16.520> dare<00:00:16.760> to<00:00:16.880> be
so can we dare to be
so can we dare to be
optimistic<00:00:18.840> well<00:00:19.000> the<00:00:19.199> thesis<00:00:19.640> of<00:00:19.800> the<00:00:19.920> bottom
optimistic well the thesis of the bottom
optimistic well the thesis of the bottom
billion<00:00:20.640> is<00:00:20.800> that<00:00:21.039> a<00:00:21.160> billion<00:00:21.680> people<00:00:22.480> have
billion is that a billion people have
billion is that a billion people have
been<00:00:22.840> stuck
been stuck
been stuck
living<00:00:25.279> in<00:00:25.880> economies<00:00:26.359> that<00:00:26.480> have<00:00:26.599> been
living in economies that have been
living in economies that have been
stagnant<00:00:27.359> for<00:00:27.560> 40
stagnant for 40
stagnant for 40
years<00:00:30.000> and<00:00:30.160> hence<00:00:30.480> diverging<00:00:31.000> from<00:00:31.160> the<00:00:31.279> rest
years and hence diverging from the rest
years and hence diverging from the rest
of
of
of
mankind<00:00:34.079> and<00:00:34.200> so<00:00:34.360> the<00:00:34.520> real<00:00:34.760> question<00:00:35.079> to<00:00:35.280> pose
mankind and so the real question to pose
mankind and so the real question to pose
is<00:00:35.760> not<00:00:35.960> can<00:00:36.160> we<00:00:36.320> be<00:00:36.719> optimistic<00:00:37.719> it's<00:00:38.000> how<00:00:38.160> can
is not can we be optimistic it's how can
is not can we be optimistic it's how can
we<00:00:38.559> give<00:00:38.879> credible<00:00:39.399> hope<00:00:39.800> to<00:00:40.000> that<00:00:40.200> billion
we give credible hope to that billion
we give credible hope to that billion
people<00:00:42.120> that<00:00:42.320> to<00:00:42.520> my<00:00:42.760> mind<00:00:43.320> is<00:00:43.480> the
people that to my mind is the
people that to my mind is the
fundamental<00:00:44.200> challenge<00:00:44.719> now<00:00:45.200> of
fundamental challenge now of
fundamental challenge now of
development<00:00:48.000> what<00:00:48.160> I'm<00:00:48.320> going<00:00:48.520> to<00:00:48.879> offer<00:00:49.480> you
development what I'm going to offer you
development what I'm going to offer you
is<00:00:50.600> a<00:00:50.840> recipe<00:00:51.440> a<00:00:51.879> combination<00:00:52.879> of<00:00:53.039> the<00:00:53.199> two
is a recipe a combination of the two
is a recipe a combination of the two
forces<00:00:54.440> that<00:00:54.600> change<00:00:55.079> the<00:00:55.199> world<00:00:55.480> for<00:00:55.800> good
forces that change the world for good
forces that change the world for good
which<00:00:56.960> is<00:00:57.160> the<00:00:57.320> alliance<00:00:58.280> of<00:00:58.600> compassion<00:00:59.600> and
which is the alliance of compassion and
which is the alliance of compassion and
enlightened
enlightened
enlightened
self-interest<00:01:03.439> compassion<00:01:04.439> because<00:01:05.080> a
self-interest compassion because a
self-interest compassion because a
billion<00:01:06.080> people<00:01:07.080> are<00:01:07.240> living<00:01:07.520> in<00:01:07.840> societies
billion people are living in societies
billion people are living in societies
that<00:01:09.400> have<00:01:09.600> not<00:01:09.880> offered<00:01:10.560> credible
that have not offered credible
that have not offered credible
hope<00:01:13.799> that<00:01:14.119> is<00:01:14.240> a<00:01:14.439> human
hope that is a human
hope that is a human
tragedy<00:01:16.360> enlightened
tragedy enlightened
tragedy enlightened
self-interest<00:01:18.960> because<00:01:19.600> if<00:01:19.880> that<00:01:20.280> economic
self-interest because if that economic
self-interest because if that economic
Divergence<00:01:21.600> continues<00:01:22.240> for<00:01:22.479> another<00:01:22.759> 40
years<00:01:26.560> combined<00:01:27.079> with<00:01:27.320> social<00:01:27.759> integration
years combined with social integration
years combined with social integration
globally<00:01:30.000> it<00:01:30.119> will<00:01:30.280> build<00:01:30.560> a<00:01:30.720> nightmare<00:01:31.520> for
globally it will build a nightmare for
globally it will build a nightmare for
our
our
our
children<00:01:34.280> we<00:01:34.439> need<00:01:35.079> compassion<00:01:36.079> to<00:01:36.280> get
children we need compassion to get
children we need compassion to get
ourselves<00:01:37.439> started<00:01:38.439> an<00:01:38.680> enlightened
ourselves started an enlightened
ourselves started an enlightened
self-interest<00:01:40.799> to<00:01:41.000> get<00:01:41.159> ourselves
self-interest to get ourselves
self-interest to get ourselves
serious<00:01:43.960> that's<00:01:44.200> the<00:01:44.360> alliance<00:01:44.880> that<00:01:45.000> changes
serious that's the alliance that changes
serious that's the alliance that changes
the<00:01:46.000> world<00:01:47.000> so<00:01:47.640> what<00:01:47.799> does<00:01:47.960> it<00:01:48.200> mean<00:01:48.759> to<00:01:49.000> get
the world so what does it mean to get
the world so what does it mean to get
serious<00:01:50.840> about<00:01:51.240> providing<00:01:51.680> hope<00:01:51.880> for<00:01:52.040> the
serious about providing hope for the
serious about providing hope for the
bottom
bottom
bottom
billion<00:01:54.240> what<00:01:54.399> can<00:01:54.520> we<00:01:54.840> actually
billion what can we actually
billion what can we actually
do<00:01:58.320> well<00:01:58.439> a<00:01:58.640> good<00:01:58.960> guide<00:02:00.159> is<00:02:00.320> to<00:02:00.560> think<00:02:01.560> what
do well a good guide is to think what
do well a good guide is to think what
did<00:02:02.360> we<00:02:02.560> do<00:02:03.240> last<00:02:03.640> time<00:02:04.439> the<00:02:04.600> rich<00:02:04.920> World<00:02:05.280> got
did we do last time the rich World got
did we do last time the rich World got
serious<00:02:06.759> about<00:02:07.159> developing<00:02:07.920> another<00:02:08.239> region
serious about developing another region
serious about developing another region
of<00:02:08.679> the<00:02:09.160> world<00:02:10.160> that<00:02:10.319> gives<00:02:10.520> us<00:02:10.800> turns<00:02:11.080> out
of the world that gives us turns out
of the world that gives us turns out
quite<00:02:11.599> a<00:02:11.720> good
quite a good
quite a good
clue<00:02:14.280> except<00:02:14.560> you<00:02:14.720> have<00:02:14.840> to<00:02:15.000> go<00:02:15.160> back<00:02:15.400> quite<00:02:15.560> a
clue except you have to go back quite a
clue except you have to go back quite a
long<00:02:16.480> time<00:02:17.480> the<00:02:17.680> last<00:02:18.000> time<00:02:18.200> the<00:02:18.360> rich<00:02:18.599> World
long time the last time the rich World
long time the last time the rich World
got<00:02:19.080> serious<00:02:19.560> about<00:02:19.840> developing<00:02:20.280> another
got serious about developing another
got serious about developing another
region<00:02:21.879> was<00:02:22.040> in<00:02:22.160> the<00:02:22.280> late
1940s<00:02:25.599> the<00:02:25.720> rich<00:02:26.080> world<00:02:26.680> was<00:02:27.120> you<00:02:28.599> America<00:02:29.599> and
1940s the rich world was you America and
1940s the rich world was you America and
and<00:02:29.959> the<00:02:30.080> region<00:02:30.760> that<00:02:30.920> needed<00:02:31.239> to<00:02:31.360> be
and the region that needed to be
and the region that needed to be
developed<00:02:32.800> was<00:02:33.040> my<00:02:33.319> world
developed was my world
developed was my world
Europe<00:02:35.840> that<00:02:36.000> was<00:02:36.160> post-war
Europe that was post-war
Europe that was post-war
Europe<00:02:38.360> why<00:02:38.519> did<00:02:38.760> America<00:02:39.200> get
Europe why did America get
Europe why did America get
serious<00:02:41.360> it<00:02:41.519> wasn't<00:02:41.879> just<00:02:42.200> compassion<00:02:42.720> for
serious it wasn't just compassion for
serious it wasn't just compassion for
Europe<00:02:43.840> though<00:02:44.080> there<00:02:44.239> was<00:02:44.920> that<00:02:45.920> it<00:02:46.040> was<00:02:46.239> you
Europe though there was that it was you
Europe though there was that it was you
knew<00:02:46.680> you<00:02:46.920> had<00:02:47.440> to<00:02:48.440> because<00:02:49.080> in<00:02:49.200> the<00:02:49.319> late
knew you had to because in the late
knew you had to because in the late
1940s<00:02:50.720> country<00:02:51.080> after<00:02:51.400> country<00:02:51.720> in<00:02:51.879> Central
1940s country after country in Central
1940s country after country in Central
Europe<00:02:53.080> was<00:02:53.280> falling<00:02:54.120> into<00:02:54.400> the<00:02:54.599> Soviet
Europe was falling into the Soviet
Europe was falling into the Soviet
block<00:02:56.720> and<00:02:56.840> so<00:02:57.000> you<00:02:57.159> knew<00:02:57.360> you'd<00:02:57.640> no<00:02:58.159> choice
block and so you knew you'd no choice
block and so you knew you'd no choice
Europe<00:02:59.560> had<00:02:59.760> had<00:02:59.920> to<00:03:00.040> be<00:03:00.200> dragged<00:03:00.560> into
Europe had had to be dragged into
Europe had had to be dragged into
Economic<00:03:01.239> Development<00:03:02.000> so<00:03:02.280> what<00:03:02.519> did<00:03:02.720> you<00:03:02.959> do
Economic Development so what did you do
Economic Development so what did you do
last<00:03:04.000> time<00:03:04.159> you<00:03:04.319> got
last time you got
last time you got
serious<00:03:06.239> well<00:03:06.760> yes<00:03:07.280> you<00:03:07.480> had<00:03:07.599> a<00:03:07.799> big<00:03:07.959> aid
serious well yes you had a big aid
serious well yes you had a big aid
program<00:03:09.120> thank<00:03:09.319> you<00:03:09.519> very<00:03:09.760> much<00:03:10.440> that<00:03:10.599> was
program thank you very much that was
program thank you very much that was
martial<00:03:11.200> Aid<00:03:11.760> we<00:03:11.920> need<00:03:12.080> to<00:03:12.239> do<00:03:12.400> it<00:03:12.599> again<00:03:13.400> Aid
martial Aid we need to do it again Aid
martial Aid we need to do it again Aid
is<00:03:13.879> part<00:03:14.040> of<00:03:14.200> the<00:03:14.360> solution<00:03:15.239> but<00:03:15.440> what<00:03:15.680> else
is part of the solution but what else
is part of the solution but what else
did<00:03:16.159> you
did you
did you
do<00:03:18.400> well<00:03:19.159> you<00:03:19.400> tore<00:03:19.840> up<00:03:20.360> your<00:03:20.599> trade<00:03:21.040> policy
do well you tore up your trade policy
do well you tore up your trade policy
and<00:03:21.920> totally<00:03:22.280> reversed
and totally reversed
and totally reversed
it<00:03:25.080> before<00:03:25.360> the<00:03:25.519> war<00:03:26.280> America<00:03:26.799> had<00:03:26.920> been
it before the war America had been
it before the war America had been
highly<00:03:28.120> protectionist<00:03:29.120> after<00:03:29.400> the<00:03:29.480> war
highly protectionist after the war
highly protectionist after the war
War<00:03:31.439> you<00:03:31.680> open<00:03:32.000> your<00:03:32.239> markets<00:03:32.680> to<00:03:32.879> Europe<00:03:33.239> you
War you open your markets to Europe you
War you open your markets to Europe you
drag<00:03:33.879> Europe<00:03:34.319> into<00:03:34.599> the<00:03:34.760> then<00:03:35.000> global<00:03:35.360> economy
drag Europe into the then global economy
drag Europe into the then global economy
which<00:03:35.879> was<00:03:36.040> your<00:03:36.319> economy<00:03:37.080> and<00:03:37.200> you
which was your economy and you
which was your economy and you
institutionalize<00:03:38.360> that<00:03:38.480> trade
institutionalize that trade
institutionalize that trade
liberalization<00:03:39.840> through<00:03:40.040> founding<00:03:40.439> the
liberalization through founding the
liberalization through founding the
general<00:03:40.879> agreement<00:03:41.200> of<00:03:41.360> tariffs<00:03:41.680> and
general agreement of tariffs and
general agreement of tariffs and
trade<00:03:43.400> so<00:03:43.720> total<00:03:44.040> reversal<00:03:44.480> of<00:03:44.640> trade<00:03:45.000> policy
trade so total reversal of trade policy
trade so total reversal of trade policy
did<00:03:46.200> you<00:03:46.360> do<00:03:46.560> anything<00:03:46.879> else<00:03:47.519> yes<00:03:48.080> you<00:03:48.319> totally
did you do anything else yes you totally
did you do anything else yes you totally
reversed<00:03:49.159> your<00:03:49.360> security<00:03:49.920> policy<00:03:50.760> before<00:03:51.040> the
reversed your security policy before the
reversed your security policy before the
war<00:03:51.840> your<00:03:52.079> security<00:03:52.599> policy<00:03:52.959> had<00:03:53.120> been
war your security policy had been
war your security policy had been
isolationist<00:03:55.159> after<00:03:55.480> the<00:03:55.879> war<00:03:56.879> you<00:03:57.079> tear<00:03:57.400> that
isolationist after the war you tear that
isolationist after the war you tear that
up<00:03:58.000> you<00:03:58.200> put<00:03:58.560> 100,000<00:03:59.159> troops<00:03:59.720> in<00:03:59.920> Europe<00:04:00.200> for
up you put 100,000 troops in Europe for
up you put 100,000 troops in Europe for
over<00:04:00.599> 40
over 40
over 40
years<00:04:02.959> so<00:04:03.959> total<00:04:04.280> reversal<00:04:04.720> of<00:04:04.879> security
years so total reversal of security
years so total reversal of security
policy<00:04:05.959> anything<00:04:06.319> else<00:04:07.319> yes<00:04:08.280> you<00:04:08.519> tear<00:04:08.799> up<00:04:09.040> the
policy anything else yes you tear up the
policy anything else yes you tear up the
11th
11th
11th
commandment<00:04:11.760> National
commandment National
commandment National
sovereignty<00:04:14.280> before<00:04:14.599> the<00:04:14.879> war<00:04:15.879> you<00:04:16.079> treated
sovereignty before the war you treated
sovereignty before the war you treated
National<00:04:17.000> sovereignty<00:04:17.680> as<00:04:17.959> so<00:04:18.519> sacran<00:04:19.519> that
National sovereignty as so sacran that
National sovereignty as so sacran that
you<00:04:19.720> weren't<00:04:20.040> even<00:04:20.199> willing<00:04:20.479> to<00:04:20.600> join<00:04:20.840> the
you weren't even willing to join the
you weren't even willing to join the
League<00:04:21.120> of<00:04:21.800> Nations<00:04:22.800> after<00:04:23.040> the<00:04:23.160> war<00:04:23.800> you
League of Nations after the war you
League of Nations after the war you
found<00:04:24.280> the<00:04:24.440> United<00:04:24.880> Nations<00:04:25.880> you<00:04:26.040> found<00:04:26.360> the
found the United Nations you found the
found the United Nations you found the
organization<00:04:27.040> for<00:04:27.199> economic<00:04:27.560> cooperation
organization for economic cooperation
organization for economic cooperation
and<00:04:28.160> development<00:04:29.000> you<00:04:29.160> found<00:04:29.400> the<00:04:29.680> IMF<00:04:30.240> you
and development you found the IMF you
and development you found the IMF you
encourage<00:04:31.360> Europe<00:04:32.360> to<00:04:32.560> create<00:04:32.840> the<00:04:32.960> European
encourage Europe to create the European
encourage Europe to create the European
Community<00:04:34.280> all<00:04:34.759> systems<00:04:35.199> for<00:04:35.400> Mutual
Community all systems for Mutual
Community all systems for Mutual
governance
governance
governance
support<00:04:39.120> that<00:04:40.000> is<00:04:40.280> still<00:04:40.960> the<00:04:41.160> Waterfront<00:04:42.039> of
support that is still the Waterfront of
support that is still the Waterfront of
effective<00:04:43.320> policies<00:04:44.320> Aid<00:04:45.280> trade<00:04:46.360> security
effective policies Aid trade security
effective policies Aid trade security
governments<00:04:48.759> of<00:04:48.880> course<00:04:49.080> the<00:04:49.240> details<00:04:49.720> of
governments of course the details of
governments of course the details of
policy<00:04:50.240> are<00:04:50.360> going<00:04:50.479> to<00:04:50.560> be<00:04:50.759> different<00:04:51.600> because
policy are going to be different because
policy are going to be different because
the<00:04:52.000> challenge<00:04:52.360> is<00:04:52.600> different<00:04:53.280> it's<00:04:53.440> not
the challenge is different it's not
the challenge is different it's not
rebuilding
rebuilding
rebuilding
Europe<00:04:56.840> it's<00:04:57.320> re<00:04:57.919> reversing<00:04:58.520> the<00:04:58.680> Divergence
Europe it's re reversing the Divergence
Europe it's re reversing the Divergence
of<00:04:59.320> the<00:04:59.560> bottom<00:04:59.840> billion<00:05:00.440> so<00:05:00.639> that<00:05:00.800> they
of the bottom billion so that they
of the bottom billion so that they
actually<00:05:01.360> catch<00:05:01.600> up<00:05:02.600> is<00:05:02.800> that<00:05:03.440> easier<00:05:04.160> or
actually catch up is that easier or
actually catch up is that easier or
harder<00:05:06.080> we<00:05:06.240> need<00:05:06.400> to<00:05:06.560> be<00:05:07.000> at<00:05:07.199> least<00:05:07.840> as<00:05:08.080> serious
harder we need to be at least as serious
harder we need to be at least as serious
as<00:05:08.800> we<00:05:08.960> were
as we were
as we were
then<00:05:12.000> now<00:05:12.240> today<00:05:12.560> I'm<00:05:12.720> going<00:05:12.840> to<00:05:13.080> take<00:05:13.880> just
then now today I'm going to take just
then now today I'm going to take just
one<00:05:14.919> of<00:05:15.120> those<00:05:15.680> four<00:05:16.680> I'm<00:05:16.840> going<00:05:16.960> to<00:05:17.160> take<00:05:17.360> the
one of those four I'm going to take the
one of those four I'm going to take the
one<00:05:17.680> that<00:05:17.880> sounds<00:05:18.319> the<00:05:18.479> weakest<00:05:19.479> the<00:05:19.600> one
one that sounds the weakest the one
one that sounds the weakest the one
that's<00:05:20.160> just<00:05:20.800> motherhood<00:05:21.240> and<00:05:21.400> apple<00:05:21.880> pie
that's just motherhood and apple pie
that's just motherhood and apple pie
governance<00:05:23.520> Mutual<00:05:23.880> systems<00:05:24.199> of<00:05:24.400> support<00:05:24.720> for
governance Mutual systems of support for
governance Mutual systems of support for
governance<00:05:26.000> and<00:05:26.080> I'm<00:05:26.199> going<00:05:26.360> to<00:05:26.479> show<00:05:26.680> you<00:05:27.000> one
governance and I'm going to show you one
governance and I'm going to show you one
idea<00:05:29.759> in<00:05:30.080> how<00:05:31.080> we<00:05:31.199> could<00:05:31.400> do<00:05:31.600> something<00:05:31.960> to
idea in how we could do something to
idea in how we could do something to
strengthen
strengthen
strengthen
governance<00:05:34.520> and<00:05:34.919> I'm<00:05:35.039> going<00:05:35.160> to<00:05:35.280> show<00:05:35.520> you
governance and I'm going to show you
governance and I'm going to show you
that<00:05:35.880> that<00:05:36.000> is<00:05:36.240> enormously<00:05:37.199> important
now<00:05:41.600> the<00:05:41.960> uh<00:05:42.639> opportunity<00:05:43.639> we're<00:05:43.800> going<00:05:43.960> to
now the uh opportunity we're going to
now the uh opportunity we're going to
look
look
look
to<00:05:46.560> is<00:05:47.080> um<00:05:48.080> is<00:05:48.199> a<00:05:48.400> genuine<00:05:48.880> basis<00:05:49.600> for<00:05:49.880> optimism
to is um is a genuine basis for optimism
to is um is a genuine basis for optimism
about<00:05:50.840> the<00:05:50.960> bottom<00:05:51.759> billian<00:05:52.759> and<00:05:52.960> that<00:05:53.080> is<00:05:53.520> the
about the bottom billian and that is the
about the bottom billian and that is the
commodity<00:05:54.520> Booms<00:05:55.520> The<00:05:55.639> commodity
commodity Booms The commodity
commodity Booms The commodity
booms<00:05:58.400> are<00:05:58.639> pumping<00:05:59.160> un<00:05:59.479> unprecedented
booms are pumping un unprecedented
booms are pumping un unprecedented
amounts<00:06:00.560> of<00:06:00.759> money<00:06:01.759> into<00:06:02.160> many<00:06:02.800> though<00:06:03.000> not
amounts of money into many though not
amounts of money into many though not
all<00:06:04.080> of<00:06:04.240> the<00:06:04.360> countries<00:06:04.680> of<00:06:04.800> the<00:06:04.880> bottom
all of the countries of the bottom
all of the countries of the bottom
billion<00:06:07.440> partly<00:06:08.199> they're<00:06:08.440> pumping<00:06:08.720> money<00:06:08.919> in
billion partly they're pumping money in
billion partly they're pumping money in
because<00:06:09.520> commodity<00:06:09.960> prices<00:06:10.280> are<00:06:10.800> high<00:06:11.800> but
because commodity prices are high but
because commodity prices are high but
it's<00:06:12.080> not<00:06:12.360> just<00:06:12.680> that<00:06:13.080> there's<00:06:13.360> also<00:06:14.240> a<00:06:14.520> range
it's not just that there's also a range
it's not just that there's also a range
of<00:06:15.720> new
of new
of new
discoveries<00:06:18.120> uganda's<00:06:18.720> just<00:06:19.080> discovered<00:06:19.360> oil
discoveries uganda's just discovered oil
discoveries uganda's just discovered oil
and<00:06:20.520> about<00:06:20.720> the<00:06:20.840> most<00:06:21.080> disastrous<00:06:21.680> location
and about the most disastrous location
and about the most disastrous location
on
on
on
Earth<00:06:24.240> Ghana's<00:06:24.840> discovered<00:06:25.360> oil<00:06:26.360> Guinea<00:06:27.000> has
Earth Ghana's discovered oil Guinea has
Earth Ghana's discovered oil Guinea has
got<00:06:27.280> a<00:06:27.599> huge<00:06:27.960> new<00:06:28.280> exploit<00:06:28.880> exploitation<00:06:29.599> of
got a huge new exploit exploitation of
got a huge new exploit exploitation of
iron<00:06:29.919> oil<00:06:30.160> coming<00:06:30.400> out<00:06:30.520> of<00:06:30.599> the<00:06:30.759> ground<00:06:31.120> so
iron oil coming out of the ground so
iron oil coming out of the ground so
mass<00:06:32.319> of<00:06:32.479> new
mass of new
mass of new
discoveries<00:06:34.400> between<00:06:35.039> them<00:06:36.039> these<00:06:36.400> new
discoveries between them these new
discoveries between them these new
Revenue<00:06:37.199> flows<00:06:38.120> dwarf<00:06:39.120> Aid<00:06:40.039> just<00:06:40.160> to<00:06:40.319> give<00:06:40.440> you
Revenue flows dwarf Aid just to give you
Revenue flows dwarf Aid just to give you
one<00:06:41.199> one<00:06:41.400> example<00:06:42.199> Angola<00:06:42.800> alone<00:06:43.720> is<00:06:43.880> getting
one one example Angola alone is getting
one one example Angola alone is getting
$50<00:06:44.840> billion<00:06:45.599> a<00:06:45.800> year<00:06:46.199> in<00:06:46.360> oil<00:06:46.720> Revenue<00:06:47.720> the
$50 billion a year in oil Revenue the
$50 billion a year in oil Revenue the
entire<00:06:48.440> Aid<00:06:48.720> flows<00:06:49.440> to<00:06:49.599> the<00:06:49.759> 60<00:06:50.120> countries<00:06:50.440> of
entire Aid flows to the 60 countries of
entire Aid flows to the 60 countries of
the<00:06:50.680> bottom<00:06:50.960> billion<00:06:51.440> last<00:06:51.759> year<00:06:52.120> were<00:06:52.319> 34
the bottom billion last year were 34
the bottom billion last year were 34
billion<00:06:54.199> so<00:06:55.199> the<00:06:55.560> the<00:06:55.879> the<00:06:56.000> flow<00:06:56.280> of<00:06:56.479> resources
billion so the the the flow of resources
billion so the the the flow of resources
from<00:06:57.160> the<00:06:57.319> commodity<00:06:57.759> Booms<00:06:58.280> to<00:06:58.440> the<00:06:58.560> bottom
from the commodity Booms to the bottom
from the commodity Booms to the bottom
billion<00:06:59.599> are<00:06:59.879> without
billion are without
billion are without
precedent<00:07:03.000> so<00:07:03.240> there's<00:07:03.479> the
precedent so there's the
precedent so there's the
optimism<00:07:05.280> the<00:07:05.440> question<00:07:06.120> is<00:07:07.120> how<00:07:07.280> is<00:07:07.400> it<00:07:07.520> going
optimism the question is how is it going
optimism the question is how is it going
to<00:07:07.759> help<00:07:08.120> their<00:07:08.280> development<00:07:09.000> it's<00:07:09.120> a<00:07:09.360> huge
to help their development it's a huge
to help their development it's a huge
opportunity<00:07:10.319> for<00:07:10.919> transformational
opportunity for transformational
opportunity for transformational
development<00:07:13.240> will<00:07:13.400> it<00:07:13.520> be<00:07:14.199> taken<00:07:15.199> so<00:07:15.720> here
development will it be taken so here
development will it be taken so here
comes<00:07:16.120> a<00:07:16.240> bit<00:07:16.360> of<00:07:16.560> Science<00:07:17.400> and<00:07:17.520> this<00:07:17.599> is<00:07:17.720> a<00:07:17.840> bit
comes a bit of Science and this is a bit
comes a bit of Science and this is a bit
of<00:07:18.080> science<00:07:18.479> I've<00:07:18.720> done<00:07:19.240> since<00:07:19.800> the<00:07:19.960> bottom
of science I've done since the bottom
of science I've done since the bottom
billion<00:07:20.720> so<00:07:20.840> it's
billion so it's
billion so it's
new<00:07:22.680> I've<00:07:22.840> looked<00:07:23.080> to<00:07:23.199> see<00:07:23.879> what<00:07:24.039> is<00:07:24.160> the
new I've looked to see what is the
new I've looked to see what is the
relationship<00:07:25.639> between<00:07:26.639> higher<00:07:26.919> commodity
relationship between higher commodity
relationship between higher commodity
prices<00:07:27.720> of<00:07:27.919> exports<00:07:28.800> and<00:07:28.919> the<00:07:29.000> growth<00:07:29.479> of
prices of exports and the growth of
prices of exports and the growth of
commodity<00:07:30.000> exporting<00:07:30.639> countries<00:07:31.639> and<00:07:31.759> I've
commodity exporting countries and I've
commodity exporting countries and I've
looked<00:07:32.199> globally<00:07:32.919> I've<00:07:33.080> taken<00:07:33.360> all<00:07:33.560> the
looked globally I've taken all the
looked globally I've taken all the
countries<00:07:34.000> in<00:07:34.120> the<00:07:34.240> world<00:07:34.479> for<00:07:34.639> the<00:07:34.759> last<00:07:34.960> 40
countries in the world for the last 40
countries in the world for the last 40
years<00:07:36.160> and<00:07:36.319> looked<00:07:36.520> to<00:07:36.639> see<00:07:37.199> what<00:07:37.440> the
years and looked to see what the
years and looked to see what the
relationship
relationship
relationship
is<00:07:40.080> and<00:07:40.400> the<00:07:41.039> the<00:07:41.199> short
is and the the short
is and the the short
run<00:07:43.080> say<00:07:43.319> the<00:07:43.479> first<00:07:43.840> 5<00:07:44.120> to<00:07:44.319> seven
run say the first 5 to seven
run say the first 5 to seven
years<00:07:46.319> is<00:07:46.560> just<00:07:47.120> great<00:07:48.120> in<00:07:48.280> fact<00:07:48.440> it's<00:07:48.639> hunky
years is just great in fact it's hunky
years is just great in fact it's hunky
dory<00:07:49.680> everything<00:07:50.280> goes<00:07:50.639> up<00:07:51.759> right<00:07:52.759> you<00:07:52.919> get
dory everything goes up right you get
dory everything goes up right you get
more<00:07:53.360> money<00:07:53.720> because<00:07:53.879> your<00:07:54.000> terms<00:07:54.199> of<00:07:54.319> trade
more money because your terms of trade
more money because your terms of trade
have<00:07:54.639> improved<00:07:55.080> but<00:07:55.240> also<00:07:55.879> that<00:07:56.080> drives<00:07:56.479> up
have improved but also that drives up
have improved but also that drives up
output<00:07:57.400> across<00:07:57.759> the<00:07:57.879> board<00:07:58.440> so<00:07:59.319> GDP<00:07:59.800> goes<00:08:00.000> up<00:08:00.159> a
output across the board so GDP goes up a
output across the board so GDP goes up a
lot<00:08:01.319> fantastic<00:08:02.319> that's<00:08:02.520> the<00:08:02.639> short
lot fantastic that's the short
lot fantastic that's the short
run<00:08:04.599> and<00:08:04.759> how<00:08:04.919> about<00:08:05.159> the<00:08:05.319> long<00:08:05.560> run<00:08:06.400> come<00:08:06.680> back
run and how about the long run come back
run and how about the long run come back
15<00:08:07.400> years<00:08:08.159> later<00:08:09.159> well<00:08:09.520> the<00:08:09.720> short<00:08:10.000> run<00:08:10.680> it's
15 years later well the short run it's
15 years later well the short run it's
hunky<00:08:11.280> dory<00:08:12.280> but<00:08:12.479> the<00:08:12.599> long<00:08:12.919> run<00:08:13.919> it's<00:08:14.120> Humpty
hunky dory but the long run it's Humpty
hunky dory but the long run it's Humpty
Dumpty<00:08:16.599> you<00:08:16.759> go<00:08:16.960> up<00:08:17.159> in<00:08:17.280> the<00:08:17.400> short<00:08:17.720> run<00:08:18.159> but
Dumpty you go up in the short run but
Dumpty you go up in the short run but
then<00:08:18.840> most<00:08:19.479> societies<00:08:20.479> historically<00:08:21.400> have
then most societies historically have
then most societies historically have
ended<00:08:21.879> up<00:08:22.440> worse<00:08:23.080> than<00:08:23.280> if<00:08:23.440> they'd<00:08:23.639> had<00:08:23.800> no
ended up worse than if they'd had no
ended up worse than if they'd had no
booms<00:08:24.280> at<00:08:24.560> all<00:08:25.560> that<00:08:25.720> is<00:08:25.879> not<00:08:26.039> a<00:08:26.240> forecast
booms at all that is not a forecast
booms at all that is not a forecast
about<00:08:27.319> how<00:08:27.599> commodity<00:08:28.120> prices<00:08:28.599> go<00:08:29.440> it's<00:08:29.599> a
about how commodity prices go it's a
about how commodity prices go it's a
forecast<00:08:30.199> of<00:08:30.360> the<00:08:30.560> consequences<00:08:31.360> the
forecast of the consequences the
forecast of the consequences the
long-term<00:08:32.200> consequences<00:08:33.200> of<00:08:33.519> for<00:08:33.760> growth<00:08:34.640> of
long-term consequences of for growth of
long-term consequences of for growth of
an<00:08:35.320> increase<00:08:35.719> in
an increase in
an increase in
prices<00:08:38.360> so<00:08:38.560> what<00:08:38.760> goes<00:08:39.039> wrong<00:08:39.399> why<00:08:39.599> is<00:08:39.839> there
prices so what goes wrong why is there
prices so what goes wrong why is there
this<00:08:40.279> resource<00:08:40.760> curse<00:08:41.159> as<00:08:41.279> it's
this resource curse as it's
this resource curse as it's
called<00:08:43.599> and<00:08:43.760> again<00:08:43.959> I've<00:08:44.080> looked<00:08:44.320> at<00:08:44.560> that<00:08:45.160> and
called and again I've looked at that and
called and again I've looked at that and
it<00:08:45.399> turns<00:08:45.720> out<00:08:46.279> that<00:08:46.480> the<00:08:46.640> critical<00:08:47.320> issue<00:08:48.160> is
it turns out that the critical issue is
it turns out that the critical issue is
the<00:08:48.519> level<00:08:48.760> of<00:08:49.680> governance<00:08:50.680> the<00:08:50.839> initial
the level of governance the initial
the level of governance the initial
level<00:08:51.399> of<00:08:51.560> economic<00:08:51.959> governance<00:08:52.760> when<00:08:52.880> there
level of economic governance when there
level of economic governance when there
is<00:08:53.240> orce<00:08:53.440> booms
is orce booms
is orce booms
acrew<00:08:55.600> in<00:08:55.760> fact<00:08:55.920> if<00:08:56.040> you've<00:08:56.200> got<00:08:56.399> good<00:08:56.560> enough
acrew in fact if you've got good enough
acrew in fact if you've got good enough
governance<00:08:57.839> there<00:08:58.000> is<00:08:58.160> no<00:08:58.360> resource<00:08:58.800> boom<00:08:59.240> you
governance there is no resource boom you
governance there is no resource boom you
go<00:08:59.560> up<00:08:59.720> in<00:08:59.839> the<00:08:59.959> short<00:09:00.560> term<00:09:01.560> and<00:09:01.640> then<00:09:01.760> you<00:09:01.880> go
go up in the short term and then you go
go up in the short term and then you go
up<00:09:02.279> even<00:09:02.519> more<00:09:03.040> in<00:09:03.160> the<00:09:03.279> long<00:09:03.519> term<00:09:03.920> that's
up even more in the long term that's
up even more in the long term that's
Norway<00:09:04.640> the<00:09:04.800> richest<00:09:05.120> country<00:09:05.399> in<00:09:05.600> Europe
Norway the richest country in Europe
Norway the richest country in Europe
it's<00:09:06.360> Australia<00:09:06.959> it's
it's Australia it's
it's Australia it's
Canada<00:09:10.079> the<00:09:10.279> resource<00:09:10.680> curse<00:09:10.959> is<00:09:11.120> entirely
Canada the resource curse is entirely
Canada the resource curse is entirely
confined<00:09:12.079> to<00:09:12.279> countries<00:09:12.640> below<00:09:13.000> a<00:09:13.160> threshold
confined to countries below a threshold
confined to countries below a threshold
of<00:09:13.839> governance<00:09:14.839> they<00:09:15.040> still<00:09:15.279> go<00:09:15.480> up<00:09:15.640> in<00:09:15.720> the
of governance they still go up in the
of governance they still go up in the
short<00:09:16.320> run<00:09:17.320> that's<00:09:17.519> what<00:09:17.640> we're<00:09:17.800> seeing
short run that's what we're seeing
short run that's what we're seeing
across<00:09:18.480> the<00:09:18.600> bottom<00:09:18.880> billion<00:09:19.240> at<00:09:19.320> the<00:09:19.440> moment
across the bottom billion at the moment
across the bottom billion at the moment
the<00:09:20.560> best<00:09:20.800> growth<00:09:21.120> rates<00:09:21.480> they've<00:09:21.800> had
the best growth rates they've had
the best growth rates they've had
ever<00:09:24.880> and<00:09:25.040> the<00:09:25.160> question<00:09:25.440> is<00:09:25.600> whether<00:09:25.839> the
ever and the question is whether the
ever and the question is whether the
short<00:09:26.200> run<00:09:26.399> will
short run will
short run will
persist
persist
persist
with<00:09:30.000> bad<00:09:30.200> governance<00:09:30.720> historically<00:09:31.240> over
with bad governance historically over
with bad governance historically over
the<00:09:31.519> last<00:09:31.720> 40<00:09:32.040> years<00:09:32.240> it<00:09:32.480> hasn't<00:09:33.480> it's
the last 40 years it hasn't it's
the last 40 years it hasn't it's
countries<00:09:34.120> like<00:09:34.760> Nigeria<00:09:35.760> which<00:09:35.880> are<00:09:36.120> worse
countries like Nigeria which are worse
countries like Nigeria which are worse
off<00:09:36.760> than<00:09:36.920> if<00:09:37.079> they<00:09:37.320> never<00:09:37.560> had
oil<00:09:41.880> so<00:09:42.880> there's<00:09:43.079> a<00:09:43.240> threshold<00:09:43.800> level<00:09:44.800> above
oil so there's a threshold level above
oil so there's a threshold level above
which<00:09:45.279> you<00:09:45.440> go<00:09:45.640> up<00:09:45.800> in<00:09:45.880> the<00:09:46.000> long<00:09:46.160> term<00:09:46.440> below
which you go up in the long term below
which you go up in the long term below
which<00:09:46.839> you<00:09:47.000> go<00:09:47.640> down<00:09:48.640> just<00:09:48.760> to<00:09:49.000> Benchmark<00:09:49.600> that
which you go down just to Benchmark that
which you go down just to Benchmark that
threshold<00:09:50.560> it's<00:09:50.800> about<00:09:51.120> the<00:09:51.240> governance
threshold it's about the governance
threshold it's about the governance
level<00:09:52.440> of<00:09:52.640> Portugal<00:09:53.279> in<00:09:53.360> the<00:09:53.480> mid
1980s<00:09:57.480> so<00:09:57.680> the<00:09:57.800> question<00:09:58.000> is<00:09:58.160> are<00:09:58.279> the<00:09:58.360> bottom
1980s so the question is are the bottom
1980s so the question is are the bottom
Billy<00:09:58.839> and<00:09:58.959> a<00:09:59.160> above<00:09:59.360> or<00:09:59.560> below<00:09:59.880> that
Billy and a above or below that
Billy and a above or below that
threshold<00:10:02.040> now<00:10:02.200> there's<00:10:02.399> one<00:10:02.640> big
threshold now there's one big
threshold now there's one big
change<00:10:04.920> since<00:10:05.320> the<00:10:05.600> commodity<00:10:06.000> booms<00:10:06.320> of<00:10:06.480> the
change since the commodity booms of the
change since the commodity booms of the
1970s<00:10:07.880> and<00:10:08.040> that<00:10:08.120> is<00:10:08.279> the<00:10:08.399> spread<00:10:08.680> of
1970s and that is the spread of
1970s and that is the spread of
democracy<00:10:10.200> so<00:10:10.360> I<00:10:10.480> thought<00:10:10.680> well<00:10:10.880> maybe<00:10:11.640> that
democracy so I thought well maybe that
democracy so I thought well maybe that
is<00:10:11.959> the<00:10:12.120> thing<00:10:12.560> which<00:10:12.720> has<00:10:12.920> transformed
is the thing which has transformed
is the thing which has transformed
governance<00:10:14.000> in<00:10:14.120> the<00:10:14.200> bottom<00:10:14.519> billion<00:10:14.839> maybe
governance in the bottom billion maybe
governance in the bottom billion maybe
we<00:10:15.200> can<00:10:15.320> be<00:10:15.440> more<00:10:15.720> optimistic<00:10:16.480> because<00:10:16.760> of<00:10:16.920> the
we can be more optimistic because of the
we can be more optimistic because of the
spread<00:10:17.279> of<00:10:17.600> democracy<00:10:18.600> so<00:10:18.800> I
spread of democracy so I
spread of democracy so I
looked<00:10:20.920> democracy<00:10:21.560> does<00:10:21.800> have<00:10:22.000> significant
looked democracy does have significant
looked democracy does have significant
effects<00:10:23.720> and<00:10:24.040> unfortunately<00:10:25.040> they're
effects and unfortunately they're
effects and unfortunately they're
adverse<00:10:26.519> democracies<00:10:27.360> make<00:10:27.680> even<00:10:27.959> more<00:10:28.160> of<00:10:28.279> a
adverse democracies make even more of a
adverse democracies make even more of a
mess
mess
mess
of<00:10:29.800> these<00:10:30.000> resource<00:10:30.399> booms<00:10:31.040> than<00:10:31.600> autocracies
of these resource booms than autocracies
of these resource booms than autocracies
at<00:10:32.800> that<00:10:33.000> stage<00:10:33.360> I<00:10:33.560> just<00:10:33.680> wanted<00:10:33.920> to<00:10:34.079> abandon
at that stage I just wanted to abandon
at that stage I just wanted to abandon
the<00:10:34.560> research
the research
the research
but<00:10:37.839> it<00:10:37.959> turns<00:10:38.200> out<00:10:38.360> that<00:10:38.519> democracy<00:10:38.959> is<00:10:39.040> a
but it turns out that democracy is a
but it turns out that democracy is a
little<00:10:39.279> bit<00:10:39.399> more<00:10:39.600> complicated<00:10:40.120> than<00:10:40.320> that
little bit more complicated than that
little bit more complicated than that
because<00:10:40.800> there<00:10:40.920> are<00:10:41.600> two<00:10:41.880> distinct<00:10:42.639> aspects
because there are two distinct aspects
because there are two distinct aspects
of<00:10:43.560> democracy<00:10:44.560> there's<00:10:44.800> electoral
of democracy there's electoral
of democracy there's electoral
competition<00:10:46.320> which<00:10:46.519> determines<00:10:47.360> how<00:10:47.600> you
competition which determines how you
competition which determines how you
acquire<00:10:48.800> power<00:10:49.800> and<00:10:49.920> there's<00:10:50.079> checks<00:10:50.360> and
acquire power and there's checks and
acquire power and there's checks and
balances<00:10:51.120> which<00:10:51.279> determine<00:10:51.720> how<00:10:51.839> you<00:10:52.000> use
balances which determine how you use
balances which determine how you use
power<00:10:55.160> it<00:10:55.279> turns<00:10:55.560> out<00:10:55.760> that<00:10:55.920> electoral
power it turns out that electoral
power it turns out that electoral
competition<00:10:56.959> is<00:10:57.120> the<00:10:57.240> thing<00:10:57.399> that's<00:10:57.560> doing
competition is the thing that's doing
competition is the thing that's doing
the<00:10:58.040> damage<00:10:58.399> with<00:10:58.560> democracy<00:10:59.440> where<00:10:59.560> our
the damage with democracy where our
the damage with democracy where our
strong<00:11:00.120> checks<00:11:00.399> and
strong checks and
strong checks and
balances<00:11:02.800> make<00:11:03.000> resource<00:11:03.360> booms<00:11:03.800> good<00:11:04.320> and<00:11:04.440> so
balances make resource booms good and so
balances make resource booms good and so
what<00:11:05.320> the<00:11:05.440> countries<00:11:05.760> of<00:11:05.880> the<00:11:06.000> botom<00:11:06.279> billion
what the countries of the botom billion
what the countries of the botom billion
need<00:11:07.360> is<00:11:07.600> very<00:11:08.000> strong<00:11:08.240> checks<00:11:08.480> and<00:11:09.160> balances
need is very strong checks and balances
need is very strong checks and balances
they<00:11:10.360> haven't<00:11:10.680> got<00:11:10.920> them<00:11:11.399> they<00:11:11.560> got<00:11:11.839> instant
they haven't got them they got instant
they haven't got them they got instant
democracy<00:11:12.800> in<00:11:12.920> the<00:11:13.399> 1990s<00:11:14.399> elections<00:11:15.399> without
democracy in the 1990s elections without
democracy in the 1990s elections without
checks<00:11:16.000> and
checks and
checks and
balances<00:11:17.760> how<00:11:18.000> can<00:11:18.360> we<00:11:19.160> help<00:11:20.120> improve
balances how can we help improve
balances how can we help improve
governance<00:11:21.360> and<00:11:21.560> introduce<00:11:22.240> checks<00:11:22.519> and
governance and introduce checks and
governance and introduce checks and
balances<00:11:23.600> in<00:11:23.760> all<00:11:24.000> the<00:11:24.200> societies<00:11:24.680> of<00:11:24.839> the
balances in all the societies of the
balances in all the societies of the
bottom<00:11:25.240> billion<00:11:25.920> there<00:11:26.040> are<00:11:26.320> intense
bottom billion there are intense
bottom billion there are intense
struggles<00:11:27.279> to<00:11:27.480> do<00:11:27.880> just<00:11:28.240> that
struggles to do just that
struggles to do just that
the<00:11:30.519> simple<00:11:31.000> proposal<00:11:32.000> is<00:11:32.160> that<00:11:32.279> we<00:11:32.360> should
the simple proposal is that we should
the simple proposal is that we should
have<00:11:32.760> some<00:11:33.120> International<00:11:34.079> standards<00:11:35.079> which
have some International standards which
have some International standards which
would<00:11:35.399> be<00:11:35.560> voluntary<00:11:36.519> but<00:11:36.680> which<00:11:36.800> would<00:11:37.160> spell
would be voluntary but which would spell
would be voluntary but which would spell
out<00:11:38.000> the<00:11:38.160> key<00:11:38.399> decision
out the key decision
out the key decision
points<00:11:40.959> that<00:11:41.120> need<00:11:41.279> to<00:11:41.399> be<00:11:41.600> taken<00:11:42.480> in<00:11:42.600> order
points that need to be taken in order
points that need to be taken in order
for<00:11:43.120> to<00:11:43.320> harness<00:11:43.760> these<00:11:43.959> resource
for to harness these resource
for to harness these resource
revenues<00:11:46.480> we<00:11:46.600> know<00:11:46.880> these<00:11:47.079> International
revenues we know these International
revenues we know these International
standards<00:11:48.200> work<00:11:48.560> because<00:11:48.760> we've<00:11:48.959> already<00:11:49.200> got
standards work because we've already got
standards work because we've already got
one<00:11:50.079> it's<00:11:50.279> called<00:11:50.480> the<00:11:50.600> extractive
one it's called the extractive
one it's called the extractive
industries<00:11:51.519> transparency
industries transparency
industries transparency
initiative<00:11:54.320> that<00:11:54.680> is<00:11:54.800> the<00:11:55.079> very<00:11:55.399> simple<00:11:56.040> idea
initiative that is the very simple idea
initiative that is the very simple idea
that<00:11:56.880> governments<00:11:57.279> should<00:11:57.560> report<00:11:57.880> to<00:11:58.079> their
that governments should report to their
that governments should report to their
citizens<00:11:59.000> what<00:11:59.160> revenues<00:11:59.680> they<00:12:00.120> have<00:12:01.120> no
citizens what revenues they have no
citizens what revenues they have no
sooner<00:12:01.800> was<00:12:01.959> it<00:12:02.800> proposed<00:12:03.800> than<00:12:04.240> reformers<00:12:04.760> in
sooner was it proposed than reformers in
sooner was it proposed than reformers in
Nigeria<00:12:05.600> adopted<00:12:06.040> it<00:12:06.959> pushed<00:12:07.240> it<00:12:07.600> published
Nigeria adopted it pushed it published
Nigeria adopted it pushed it published
the<00:12:08.279> revenues<00:12:08.680> in<00:12:08.800> the<00:12:08.959> paper<00:12:09.800> Nigerian
the revenues in the paper Nigerian
the revenues in the paper Nigerian
newspaper<00:12:10.920> circulation<00:12:11.639> spiked<00:12:12.600> people
newspaper circulation spiked people
newspaper circulation spiked people
wanted<00:12:13.199> to<00:12:13.399> know<00:12:14.279> what<00:12:14.440> their<00:12:14.600> government<00:12:15.160> was
wanted to know what their government was
wanted to know what their government was
getting<00:12:15.680> in<00:12:15.800> terms<00:12:16.040> of
getting in terms of
getting in terms of
Revenue<00:12:17.839> so<00:12:18.000> we<00:12:18.120> know<00:12:18.279> it<00:12:18.720> works<00:12:19.720> what<00:12:19.880> would
Revenue so we know it works what would
Revenue so we know it works what would
the<00:12:20.279> content<00:12:20.880> be<00:12:21.720> of<00:12:21.959> these<00:12:22.440> International
the content be of these International
the content be of these International
standards<00:12:25.680> I<00:12:25.800> can't<00:12:26.000> go<00:12:26.160> through<00:12:26.360> all<00:12:26.519> of<00:12:26.680> them
standards I can't go through all of them
standards I can't go through all of them
but<00:12:27.240> I'll<00:12:27.440> give<00:12:27.560> you<00:12:28.279> an<00:12:28.480> example
but I'll give you an example
but I'll give you an example
the<00:12:30.560> first<00:12:31.079> is<00:12:31.959> how<00:12:32.079> to<00:12:32.279> take<00:12:32.480> the<00:12:32.639> resources
the first is how to take the resources
the first is how to take the resources
out<00:12:33.279> of<00:12:33.399> the<00:12:33.519> ground<00:12:34.040> the<00:12:34.199> economic<00:12:34.680> process
out of the ground the economic process
out of the ground the economic process
is<00:12:35.240> taking<00:12:35.519> the<00:12:35.639> resources<00:12:36.120> out<00:12:36.279> of<00:12:36.399> the
is taking the resources out of the
is taking the resources out of the
ground<00:12:37.040> and<00:12:37.199> putting<00:12:37.480> assets<00:12:37.800> on<00:12:38.000> top<00:12:38.160> of<00:12:38.279> the
ground and putting assets on top of the
ground and putting assets on top of the
ground<00:12:39.959> and<00:12:40.079> the<00:12:40.240> first<00:12:40.560> step<00:12:40.800> in<00:12:40.959> that<00:12:41.320> is
ground and the first step in that is
ground and the first step in that is
selling<00:12:41.839> the<00:12:42.040> rights<00:12:42.320> to<00:12:42.519> Resource
selling the rights to Resource
selling the rights to Resource
extraction<00:12:44.839> you<00:12:44.959> know<00:12:45.120> how<00:12:45.360> rights<00:12:45.600> to
extraction you know how rights to
extraction you know how rights to
Resource<00:12:46.160> extraction<00:12:46.560> are<00:12:46.680> being<00:12:46.839> sold<00:12:47.199> at
Resource extraction are being sold at
Resource extraction are being sold at
the<00:12:47.399> moment<00:12:47.880> how<00:12:48.000> they've<00:12:48.199> been<00:12:48.360> sold<00:12:48.720> over
the moment how they've been sold over
the moment how they've been sold over
the<00:12:49.040> last<00:12:49.199> 40<00:12:49.720> years<00:12:50.720> a<00:12:50.880> company<00:12:51.279> flies<00:12:51.720> in
the last 40 years a company flies in
the last 40 years a company flies in
does<00:12:52.440> a<00:12:52.560> deal<00:12:52.880> with<00:12:52.959> a<00:12:53.279> minister<00:12:54.279> and<00:12:54.440> that's
does a deal with a minister and that's
does a deal with a minister and that's
great<00:12:54.920> for<00:12:55.079> the<00:12:55.279> company<00:12:56.240> and<00:12:56.399> it's<00:12:56.680> quite
great for the company and it's quite
great for the company and it's quite
often<00:12:57.160> great<00:12:57.360> for<00:12:57.480> the<00:12:57.600> minister<00:12:58.600> right
often great for the minister right
often great for the minister right
and<00:12:59.800> it's<00:12:59.959> not<00:13:00.160> great<00:13:00.360> for<00:13:00.519> the<00:13:00.720> country
and it's not great for the country
and it's not great for the country
there's<00:13:01.839> a<00:13:02.040> very<00:13:02.320> simple<00:13:02.760> institutional
there's a very simple institutional
there's a very simple institutional
technology<00:13:04.519> which<00:13:04.680> can<00:13:04.880> transform<00:13:05.600> that<00:13:06.240> and
technology which can transform that and
technology which can transform that and
it's<00:13:06.560> called<00:13:07.199> verified
auctions<00:13:12.160> the
auctions the
auctions the
uh<00:13:14.360> the<00:13:14.519> public<00:13:14.839> agency<00:13:15.279> with<00:13:15.399> the<00:13:15.519> greatest
uh the public agency with the greatest
uh the public agency with the greatest
expertise<00:13:16.560> on<00:13:16.720> Earth<00:13:16.959> is<00:13:17.079> of<00:13:17.240> course<00:13:17.399> the
expertise on Earth is of course the
expertise on Earth is of course the
treasury<00:13:18.199> that<00:13:18.320> is<00:13:18.480> the<00:13:18.600> British<00:13:19.079> Treasury
treasury that is the British Treasury
treasury that is the British Treasury
and<00:13:20.199> the<00:13:20.279> British<00:13:20.560> treasury<00:13:21.079> decided<00:13:21.560> that<00:13:21.720> it
and the British treasury decided that it
and the British treasury decided that it
would<00:13:22.079> sell<00:13:22.880> the<00:13:23.079> rights<00:13:23.360> to<00:13:23.560> third
would sell the rights to third
would sell the rights to third
generation<00:13:24.440> mobile<00:13:24.800> phones<00:13:25.199> by<00:13:25.360> working<00:13:25.639> out
generation mobile phones by working out
generation mobile phones by working out
what<00:13:26.040> those<00:13:26.240> rights<00:13:26.480> were<00:13:27.079> worth<00:13:28.079> it<00:13:28.199> worked
what those rights were worth it worked
what those rights were worth it worked
out<00:13:28.880> worth2
out worth2
out worth2
billion<00:13:31.440> just<00:13:31.680> in<00:13:31.959> time<00:13:32.800> a<00:13:32.920> set<00:13:33.079> of<00:13:33.240> economists
billion just in time a set of economists
billion just in time a set of economists
got<00:13:33.920> there<00:13:34.079> and<00:13:34.240> said<00:13:34.920> why<00:13:35.040> not<00:13:35.199> try<00:13:35.480> an
got there and said why not try an
got there and said why not try an
auction<00:13:36.040> it'll<00:13:36.279> reveal<00:13:36.600> the<00:13:36.880> value<00:13:37.880> it<00:13:38.000> went
auction it'll reveal the value it went
auction it'll reveal the value it went
for2<00:13:38.920> billion<00:13:39.720> through<00:13:40.000> auction<00:13:41.000> if<00:13:41.160> the
for2 billion through auction if the
for2 billion through auction if the
British<00:13:41.680> treasury<00:13:42.360> can<00:13:42.480> be<00:13:42.639> out<00:13:42.839> by<00:13:43.000> a<00:13:43.120> factor
British treasury can be out by a factor
British treasury can be out by a factor
of<00:13:43.600> 10<00:13:44.560> think<00:13:44.880> what<00:13:45.040> the<00:13:45.120> Ministry<00:13:45.440> of<00:13:45.600> Finance
of 10 think what the Ministry of Finance
of 10 think what the Ministry of Finance
in<00:13:46.079> Sierra<00:13:46.480> Leon<00:13:46.800> is<00:13:46.880> going<00:13:47.040> to<00:13:47.160> be<00:13:47.720> like<00:13:48.720> when
in Sierra Leon is going to be like when
in Sierra Leon is going to be like when
I<00:13:49.000> put<00:13:49.199> that<00:13:49.360> to<00:13:49.519> the<00:13:49.680> president<00:13:49.959> of<00:13:50.079> Sierra
I put that to the president of Sierra
I put that to the president of Sierra
Leon<00:13:50.759> the<00:13:50.880> next<00:13:51.160> day<00:13:51.839> he<00:13:51.959> asked<00:13:52.199> the<00:13:52.279> World
Leon the next day he asked the World
Leon the next day he asked the World
Bank<00:13:52.680> to<00:13:52.800> send<00:13:52.959> in<00:13:53.079> a<00:13:53.279> team<00:13:53.800> to<00:13:54.199> give<00:13:54.399> expertise
Bank to send in a team to give expertise
Bank to send in a team to give expertise
on<00:13:55.040> how<00:13:55.160> to<00:13:55.320> conduct
on how to conduct
on how to conduct
auctions<00:13:58.040> there<00:13:58.160> are<00:13:58.399> five<00:13:59.199> such<00:13:59.839> decision
auctions there are five such decision
auctions there are five such decision
Points<00:14:00.920> each<00:14:01.240> one<00:14:01.720> needs<00:14:02.000> an<00:14:02.199> international
Points each one needs an international
Points each one needs an international
standard<00:14:04.519> if<00:14:04.639> we<00:14:04.800> could<00:14:05.079> do<00:14:05.399> it<00:14:06.399> we<00:14:06.560> would
standard if we could do it we would
standard if we could do it we would
change<00:14:07.880> the<00:14:08.040> world<00:14:08.320> we<00:14:08.399> would<00:14:08.560> be<00:14:09.000> helping<00:14:10.000> the
change the world we would be helping the
change the world we would be helping the
reformers<00:14:10.959> in<00:14:11.199> these<00:14:11.560> societies<00:14:12.560> who<00:14:12.680> are
reformers in these societies who are
reformers in these societies who are
struggling<00:14:13.680> for
struggling for
struggling for
change<00:14:15.519> that's<00:14:15.839> our<00:14:16.120> modest<00:14:16.560> role<00:14:17.480> we<00:14:17.680> cannot
change that's our modest role we cannot
change that's our modest role we cannot
change<00:14:18.440> these<00:14:18.680> societies<00:14:19.639> but<00:14:19.800> we<00:14:19.920> can<00:14:20.160> help
change these societies but we can help
change these societies but we can help
the<00:14:21.079> people<00:14:21.519> in<00:14:21.759> these<00:14:22.040> societies<00:14:22.839> who<00:14:22.959> are
the people in these societies who are
the people in these societies who are
struggling<00:14:24.079> and<00:14:24.279> usually<00:14:24.759> failing<00:14:25.759> because
struggling and usually failing because
struggling and usually failing because
the<00:14:26.120> odds<00:14:26.360> are<00:14:26.519> so<00:14:26.720> stacked<00:14:27.240> against<00:14:27.680> them
and<00:14:31.880> yet<00:14:32.279> we've<00:14:32.480> not<00:14:32.680> got<00:14:32.920> these<00:14:33.120> rules<00:14:34.079> if<00:14:34.199> you
and yet we've not got these rules if you
and yet we've not got these rules if you
think<00:14:34.600> about<00:14:34.880> it<00:14:35.600> the<00:14:35.839> cost<00:14:36.040> of<00:14:36.199> promulgating
think about it the cost of promulgating
think about it the cost of promulgating
international<00:14:37.519> rules<00:14:38.279> is
international rules is
international rules is
Sil<00:14:40.440> nothing<00:14:41.399> why<00:14:41.519> on<00:14:41.720> Earth<00:14:42.399> are<00:14:42.600> they<00:14:42.759> not
Sil nothing why on Earth are they not
Sil nothing why on Earth are they not
there<00:14:45.680> I<00:14:45.839> realized<00:14:46.720> that<00:14:46.839> the<00:14:46.959> reason<00:14:47.240> they're
there I realized that the reason they're
there I realized that the reason they're
not<00:14:48.000> there<00:14:49.000> is<00:14:49.199> that<00:14:49.680> until<00:14:50.199> we<00:14:50.440> have<00:14:50.759> a
not there is that until we have a
not there is that until we have a
critical<00:14:51.480> mass<00:14:51.920> of<00:14:52.120> informed<00:14:52.880> citizens<00:14:53.560> in
critical mass of informed citizens in
critical mass of informed citizens in
our<00:14:53.880> own<00:14:54.639> societies<00:14:55.920> politicians<00:14:56.920> will<00:14:57.160> get
our own societies politicians will get
our own societies politicians will get
away<00:14:57.720> with<00:14:58.000> gestures
away with gestures
away with gestures
the<00:15:00.360> the<00:15:00.720> that<00:15:01.079> unless<00:15:01.600> we<00:15:01.800> have<00:15:01.920> an<00:15:02.120> informed
the the that unless we have an informed
the the that unless we have an informed
Society<00:15:03.560> what<00:15:03.839> politicians<00:15:04.480> do<00:15:05.120> especially
Society what politicians do especially
Society what politicians do especially
in<00:15:05.680> relation<00:15:06.040> to<00:15:06.279> Africa<00:15:07.160> is
in relation to Africa is
in relation to Africa is
gestures<00:15:09.240> things<00:15:09.519> that<00:15:09.680> look<00:15:10.000> good<00:15:10.680> but<00:15:10.880> don't
gestures things that look good but don't
gestures things that look good but don't
work<00:15:12.800> and<00:15:12.880> so<00:15:13.079> I<00:15:13.399> realized<00:15:14.399> we<00:15:14.639> had<00:15:14.800> to<00:15:15.000> go
work and so I realized we had to go
work and so I realized we had to go
through<00:15:15.480> the<00:15:15.639> business<00:15:16.000> of<00:15:16.399> building<00:15:17.000> an
through the business of building an
through the business of building an
informed<00:15:18.279> citizenry<00:15:19.279> that's<00:15:19.639> why<00:15:20.160> I<00:15:20.320> broke
informed citizenry that's why I broke
informed citizenry that's why I broke
all<00:15:21.120> the<00:15:21.360> professional<00:15:21.839> rules<00:15:22.199> of<00:15:22.399> conduct
all the professional rules of conduct
all the professional rules of conduct
for<00:15:23.040> an<00:15:23.240> economist<00:15:24.240> and<00:15:24.360> I<00:15:24.480> wrote<00:15:24.759> an
for an economist and I wrote an
for an economist and I wrote an
economics<00:15:25.480> book<00:15:25.920> that<00:15:26.040> you<00:15:26.160> could<00:15:26.360> read<00:15:26.720> on<00:15:26.880> a
economics book that you could read on a
economics book that you could read on a
beach
however<00:15:32.880> I<00:15:33.000> have<00:15:33.120> to<00:15:33.360> say<00:15:34.079> the<00:15:34.319> process<00:15:34.920> of
however I have to say the process of
however I have to say the process of
communication<00:15:36.839> does<00:15:37.000> not<00:15:37.240> come<00:15:37.720> naturally<00:15:38.079> to
communication does not come naturally to
communication does not come naturally to
me<00:15:38.440> this<00:15:38.519> is<00:15:38.680> why<00:15:38.800> I'm<00:15:38.920> on<00:15:39.079> this<00:15:39.279> stage<00:15:39.759> but
me this is why I'm on this stage but
me this is why I'm on this stage but
it's<00:15:40.399> alarming<00:15:41.279> right<00:15:42.279> I<00:15:42.800> grew<00:15:43.079> up<00:15:43.399> in<00:15:43.560> a
it's alarming right I grew up in a
it's alarming right I grew up in a
culture<00:15:45.120> uh<00:15:45.480> of<00:15:45.800> self
culture uh of self
culture uh of self
effacement
effacement
effacement
um<00:15:50.079> my<00:15:50.279> wife<00:15:50.440> showed<00:15:50.759> me<00:15:50.959> a<00:15:51.600> a<00:15:51.759> Blog<00:15:52.120> comment<00:15:52.680> on
um my wife showed me a a Blog comment on
um my wife showed me a a Blog comment on
one<00:15:52.959> of<00:15:53.120> my<00:15:53.319> last<00:15:53.759> talks<00:15:54.759> and<00:15:54.880> the<00:15:55.000> blog
one of my last talks and the blog
one of my last talks and the blog
comment<00:15:56.319> said<00:15:57.319> Kia<00:15:58.279> is<00:15:58.680> not
charismatic<00:16:04.160> but<00:16:04.319> his<00:16:04.519> arguments<00:16:05.040> are
compelling
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[Applause]
if<00:16:18.000> if<00:16:18.160> you<00:16:18.399> agree<00:16:18.720> with<00:16:18.920> that
if if you agree with that
if if you agree with that
sentiment<00:16:20.839> and<00:16:21.440> if<00:16:21.600> you<00:16:21.839> agree<00:16:22.600> that<00:16:22.800> we<00:16:22.959> need
sentiment and if you agree that we need
sentiment and if you agree that we need
a<00:16:23.600> critical<00:16:24.120> mass<00:16:24.560> of<00:16:24.720> informed<00:16:25.639> citizenry
a critical mass of informed citizenry
a critical mass of informed citizenry
you<00:16:26.759> will<00:16:27.079> realize<00:16:28.079> that<00:16:28.319> I'm<00:16:28.600> need<00:16:29.120> you
you will realize that I'm need you
you will realize that I'm need you
please<00:16:30.839> become<00:16:31.800> ambassadors<00:16:32.800> thank
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you
Paul Collier, economist, economics, bottom, billion, TEDEducation, TED-Ed, TED, Ed
